Gull Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, listen up. It’s Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for our stretch of coast, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a bit of a rough patch for the next week and a half. The swell window’s looking pretty empty, and old Gull Rock (Big Island) is going to be mostly flat. There’s a gap at the start here with basically nothing on offer for the first few days. The wind’s all over the place, and the energy in the water is just pathetic. The combined energy values are in the single digits and low teens, which is as weak as it gets.

Things don't really get going until Saturday the 8th. There’s a pulse of swell that morning, a bit of a north-northwest windswell pushing 4ft, but the energy is still weak at 82. The wind is a cross-offshore, so it might be clean, but the waves will be shifty and weak. The afternoon gets chopped up by a strong north breeze, so that’s a miss.

The real change comes through on Sunday the 9th. The swell jumps up, with the morning pushing 7ft and the afternoon hitting 8ft. The energy numbers jump into the hundreds, with 365 and 604 respectively, which is a solid, moderate pulse of northwest windswell. But here’s the kicker – it’s blowing onshore from the west at 28 mph. That’s going to turn Gull Rock into a washing machine. It’s a reef, so it might hold some shape, but with that wind, it’s just going to be a mess. This is more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session. The period is short, around 6-7 seconds, so it’s all wind chop.

Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th stay junky. The swell stays in the 6ft to 8ft zone, but the wind is still strong and cross-onshore, keeping the waves lumpy and messy. The energy is moderate, but the quality is just poor. You’d be fighting an uphill battle.

The middle of the week drops off again. From the 13th through the 17th, the swell fades back down to the 1ft to 3ft range, with the energy falling back to the teens and thirties. It’s still mostly cross-onshore, not doing us any favors. The 16th has a couple of glassy moments, but the waves are tiny at 0.7ft, so you’d be floating around on a lake.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The standout of the whole window looks like Tuesday the 18th. We’re looking at a bigger pulse of swell, with 7ft in the morning and 7ft in the afternoon. The energy is back up in the 400s, which is a strong, moderate push. The wind is light, with a cross-shore breeze in the morning and a slight cross-on in the afternoon. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best the forecast has to offer. The wave comment is only "marginal," so don’t expect perfection, but this is the one day with real size and a chance of clean conditions. The swell direction is W and WSW, which is pretty much the optimum for the spot. This is the one to keep an eye on, but since it’s over a week out, call it a promising but not locked-in call.

After that, the 19th and 20th fade back to small, weak, and cross-shore. So, bottom line: the next week and a half is mostly a right-off. Mark the 18th on your calendar, keep your fingers crossed for the wind to behave, and don’t even bother with a board before then.

Rusty.

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