Dogmans (Rincon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this coast is in a proper lull for a while. We’re lookin’ at a good ten days or more of flat, dribbly conditions at Dogmans (Rincon) before anything with a pulse shows up. Don’t get your hopes up for the first week and a half; the ocean’s basically asleep.

The first real chance of a wave shows up on Thursday, September 25th, with a modest bump of northerly swell pushing in around 3ft. The swell energy is weak-to-moderate at 109, and it’s glassy in the morning—that’s about as good as it gets for a while. The period’s around 9 seconds, so it’s a bit of a windswell, but clean conditions will make it rideable. By the afternoon it gets a little cross-off with a gentle breeze, but still surfable. It’s not a standout, but at least you can paddle out and get a few crumbly ones.

Then the real event—the one to keep an eye on—rolls in on Sunday, September 27th. The swell jumps to 7ft out of the north, and the energy jumps way up to 716, which is strong, proper grunt. That’s the best on offer across the whole run, but it’s not for the faint-hearted. 7ft is solid, pushing past beginner territory, and with a period of 9 seconds it’s still a bit short, so it’s going to be lumpy and testing. The wind is light cross-on in the morning, which will leave a bit of texture, but it’s still the only day where you’ll get some real power. This one’s for the experienced crew—the reef will be working but it’ll be handling some size.

The water’s about average for this time of year, nothing wild there.

Before that, it’s a long grind. From now through the 24th, you’re looking at waves mostly under 2ft, with combined swell energy in the single digits and teens. There are some glassy mornings here and there, but it’s just not worth suiting up for. The swell direction is mostly north, which is what Dogmans wants, but there’s no size behind it. A few afternoons pick up a bit of cross-off breeze, but again, it’s all flat.

So, bottom line: mark Thursday the 25th as a “maybe” if you’re desperate, but Sunday the 27th is the real deal—if you’re experienced and hungry, that’s your session. Everything else is a waiting game. Forecasts can change, so keep your fingers crossed, but for now, bring the longboard and a book.

Rusty.

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