Dogmans (Rincon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Dogmans is your only option on the table, and I’ve got to be straight with you – the next 16 days are looking flat. There’s a real dry spell coming our way. The first week is basically a write-off, with almost no swell energy to speak of and the odd tiny pulse doing nothing to get the heart racing. We’re talking about days and days of nothing surfable, with the combined energy stuck at single-digit numbers (6, 2, 4, 3, 0) for the first 8 days. That’s weak, weak, weak. You’ll be staring at a glassy, empty ocean for most of it.

The first real flicker of something happens on Monday, 31 August, in the afternoon. We get a tiny bump of 3 ft from the NNE with a short period of 7 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 66, so there’s a bit more push, but it’s still weak. The wind is light and cross-offshore from the NNE, keeping the surface clean. Honestly, it’s barely surfable – the wave comment says it all: “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” For a reef break like Dogmans that needs a decent swell, this is a tough sell. The optimum swell direction is WNW, and we’re getting NNE, so it’s not lighting up the break. If you’re desperate for a paddle, you could get a few close-outs, but I wouldn’t call it a standout.

After that, it’s back to flatness until we hit Sunday, 6 September. The morning brings a tiny 1 ft from the NW with an 8-second period. Combined energy is still weak at 17. The wind is light cross-onshore from the SSW, which will mess with what little shape there is. The afternoon looks slightly better: same 1 ft swell from the NW, but the wind swings to a light cross-offshore from the NE, cleaning it up. Combined energy creeps up to 27. Still tiny, still not doing much.

Then Monday, 7 September, we get another 1 ft pulse from the NNW with an 8-second period. The morning is glassy – light offshore from the W, dead calm. Combined energy is 26. That’s probably the cleanest you’ll see this swell, but it’s still a tiny wave on a reef that needs more to really work.

So here’s the bottom line: there’s no real standout. The best of a bad bunch is Monday, 31 August afternoon (3 ft, NNE, clean) and Sunday, 6 September afternoon (1 ft, NW, clean). If you’re a beginner, the tiny size won’t scare you, but the lack of power and poor direction will. For anyone else, it’s a frustrating run. Dogmans is a reef, so it needs direction and a bit of grunt – this ain’t it. The water temperature anomaly isn’t given in the data for the first break, so I can’t tell you if it’s warmer or cooler than usual.

Hang in there, mate. Forecasts change. It won’t stay this flat forever.

Rusty

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