Dogmans (Rincon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s have a proper look at what’s on the cards for Dogmans (Rincon). I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough stretch. For the next week and a half or so, the swell window is basically shut. We’re lookin’ at a long, long gap of flat or near-flat conditions, with nothing worth paddling out for from Sunday 26 July right through to at least the end of the first week of August. The combined swell energy sits at zero for most of that time – just dead calm or tiny wind ripples, which is brutal for a reef setup that really needs a proper pulse from the West-Northwest to get going.

Now, the water temp is about average for this time of year, so no shock there, but the lack of any push is the real story.

Things get a little more interesting toward the second week. By Saturday 8 August, we start seeing the faintest signs of life. On the Saturday morning (8 Aug), we’re still small – only 0.7ft of swell from the Northeast – but the combined energy creeps up to 16. That afternoon gets a bit better with 1ft from the Northeast and a period of 11 seconds, giving us 22 units of energy. That’s still weak, but with glassy or clean offshore winds from the East-Northeast, it’ll be clean. Sunday 9 August keeps that tiny 1ft Northeast swell rolling with glassy conditions all day – energy around 19 to 22. Honestly, it’s small and inconsistent, but if you’re desperate for a paddle and don’t mind knee-high waves, Sunday 9 August is the best you’re gonna get. The swell direction is coming from the Northeast, which isn’t the optimum West-Northwest that Dogmans loves, so don’t expect any classic reef shape. The 11-second period means some longer gaps between sets, so lots of waiting.

If you’re an intermediate surfer looking for anything clean, that Sunday 9 August morning with no wind and glassy surface is your standout window. It’s not a standout by normal standards – more like a ‘least worst’ option. Crowds are possible here, but with these tiny waves, it’ll be quiet.

Don’t hold your breath for anything bigger. The forecast after that (Monday 10 August) stays tiny, with energy dropping back to 14 and only 1ft. It’s a sad run for a spot that usually needs a good Western groundswell to show its teeth.

Forget about beginners – even the biggest wave here (1ft) is safe and tiny. And nobody should be thinking about expert-level waves; there’s nothing overhead or challenging.

So yeah, it’s a blank run. Dogmans just isn’t getting any love from the ocean in this 16-day window. With such poor consistency and almost no energy, it’s not unusual for this area to go quiet like this when the swell direction doesn’t line up. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d save your energy.

Rusty

Read more