Dogmans (Rincon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch ahead for Rincon. Looking at the whole 16-day window, we’ve got a long, quiet spell with barely a ripple on offer. The near future’s looking flat, and while the long-range shows a few tiny hints of life, nothing’s gonna get the heart pumping.

The real story is the gap. From the start of the outlook right through until at least the 11th of July, we’re looking at days with no real surf – just a few tiny, weak bumps that won’t get you out of bed. The water temp’s sitting around 84°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so at least the wait will be warm.

For the first real "surf" mention, we’re looking at Dogmans (Rincon) on the morning of Friday the 11th of July. But man, it’s a struggle. You’re getting a 0.7ft swell from the north-northeast, with a period of just 7 seconds – that’s weak, short-period windswell. The combined energy is tiny at only (5), so it’s barely got any push. Winds are light and cross-shore, so it’ll be clean-ish but gutless. Honestly, it’s not worth paddling out for.

The rest of July just limps along. Every day after that offers the same sad story: tiny 0.3ft to 0.7ft waves from the north, with periods mostly between 7 and 12 seconds. The energy readings are all rock-bottom, usually just (2) or (3). There’s a consistent offshore or cross-offshore wind from the north-east and east-north-east through the second week, which *would* be great if there was any swell to work with. A few mornings like the 16th of July are glassy, and the afternoon of the 15th of July has a moderate offshore wind – clean conditions going to waste on a flat ocean.

Don’t get your hopes up for the longer period stuff, either. The 17th and 18th of July show a 12-second period, but it’s still just a 0.3ft swell. That’s not a groundswell, that’s a shiver. For a reef break like Dogmans, you need a real pulse of WNW swell to get it going – which is its optimum direction – and we’re not seeing anything like that anywhere in this forecast.

Best I can say is, it’s a blank run that looks pretty normal for this area right now. Forecasts can change, but for the next couple of weeks, you’re better off finding something else to do.

Rusty.

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