Dogmans (Rincon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the next couple of weeks around Dogmans. I’ve been staring at the charts, and honestly, it’s a tough stretch for anyone chasing waves. We’re looking at a long, flat spell ahead.

The first few days through to the end of next week are pretty much a write-off. Swell energy is gutless, barely registering, with readings mostly in the single digits and low tens (like 10, 7, 12). You’re staring at ankle-biters and knee-high slop, nothing with any push. We do get some clean, glassy mornings, especially on the 10th and 11th, and some offshore and light breezes, but it’s all wasted on waves that wouldn’t break a paper bag. It’s the kind of thing where you’d paddle out on a funboard and still be frustrated.

There’s also a strong chance of afternoon thunderstorms through many of these days, which will mess with the vibe even if the wind stays light. From the 12th through the 19th, we see wind picking up, mainly from the east and northeast, and while some of it is offshore for Dogmans (Rincon), the swell stays tiny and short-period. A lot of poor surf conditions and energy readings stuck under 25. On the 16th, there’s a little pulse with a 15-second period, but the swell height is a pathetic 0.3ft, so it’s still nothing to get excited about.

We get a proper full flat spell from the 20th through the 23rd, with nothing but poor surf conditions and zero energy. It’s clearing out, but there’s no love in the water. The 21st afternoon kicks up a bit of cross-shore chop, but again, no waves to ride.

Things try to wake up in the last few days. The 24th sees the swell nudge up to 2ft from the north, and the energy finally starts to build – morning is glassy, the afternoon is clean with a light offshore. It’s a 1/10 at best, but at least it’s surfable for a log. By the 25th, we get a little more life: 2ft of north swell with an 11-second period, and the energy jumps to 107. That’s a moderate reading, and with glassy conditions, there’s finally a hint of a proper wave. This is the only window in the entire 16-day stretch that looks even remotely promising for a real surf, but it’s still very much a beginner-level day and not a standout. It’s a small, clean, and weak pulse, and we need a lot more push to make this a proper session.

Bottom line: keep your board in the car, but don't be surprised if you don't even bother. There are no waves of note, and the only real action is waiting for that small uptick on the 25th. It won't be epic, but after this flat run, a clean 2ft day will feel like a gift.

Rusty

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