Dogmans (Rincon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get this straight. For the next 16 days, we are looking at a proper flat spell. There’s just nothing doing – no surf to speak of, no real swell on the horizon. It’s one of those quiet runs that happens here from time to time, so if you’re just checking the forecast, don’t get your hopes up. The only break worth mentioning is Dogmans (Rincon) – a reef setup that’s fairly consistent in general, but even it’s not getting any love.

The water temperature is sitting at 84°F – that’s a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, about 2°F above average, so it’s noticeably warm water.

From Tuesday the 7th right through the entire period, it’s all poor surf conditions. You’ll see little blips of tiny swell – like 0.3ft to 1ft – coming from the north or north-northeast, with periods mostly under 11 seconds, and combined energy barely registering (values like 2, 6, 17, 11, 3 – all well under 100, so weak). For example, on Sunday morning the 12th, there’s a tiny 0.3ft N swell at 9 seconds, energy of just 2, and it’s cross-onshore. On Monday the 13th, a 0.7ft NNE groundswell sneaks in with a period of 11 seconds and energy of 17, but it’s still tiny and cross-onshore. By Tuesday the 14th, you get a glassy morning with a 0.7ft NNE swell, but it’s still just 0.7ft – not enough to ride.

From there, it’s the same story: tiny waves, poor surf, and a lot of clean or glassy conditions that would be prime if there was any swell. There’s a brief moment on the 17th – Friday morning – with glassy conditions and a 1ft NNE swell, but at 7 seconds period and energy of 10, it’s barely a ripple. Even the afternoons offer a bit of offshore wind now and then, like on the 20th, a moderate offshore easterly at 12 mph, but the swell is just 0.3ft.

So, the bottom line: no standout days, no real surf on offer. This is a flat spell through and through. If you’re a kite surfer, the wind picks up occasionally – like Tuesday afternoon the 7th with a fresh 19 mph offshore easterly, or Thursday afternoon the 16th with a moderate 12 mph cross-off northeast – but for paddle surfing, it’s a no-go. Keep an eye on the forecasts, though – it tends not to stay this quiet for long.

Rusty

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