Dogmans (Rincon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s see what’s cookin’ for the next couple weeks. Honestly, it starts off pretty dead, but there’s a little flicker of life later on if you’re willin’ to wait.

We’re kickin’ off at Dogmans (Rincon), a reef break that’s fairly consistent and gets good exposure to a WNW swell. Water’s sittin’ at about 86°, which is roughly 2° warmer than normal for this time of year — nothin’ wild, just a bit toastier than usual. But from Saturday the 12th all the way through Wednesday the 23rd, it’s a wasteland. Swell heights are mostly 0.3ft to 1ft, with combined swell energy barely hittin’ double digits (10 at best), and often just 1 or even 0. That’s flat, weak stuff. A few mornings are glassy or light offshore, but there’s no push behind ’em. You’d be floatin’ around with no hope.

That’s a solid 12-day gap with nothin’ worth paddlin’ for.

Then around Thursday the 24th of September, things start to rumble a little. Thursday morning shows 2ft from the north with a period of 11 seconds, combined energy at 61 — that’s weak to moderate, just barely into the low end of okay. By Thursday afternoon it bumps to 2ft from the north, 10-second period, and combined energy hits 101 — now that’s solidly moderate. Wind goes light cross-off or glassy — real clean. For a reef like Dogmans, that means some tidy little lines. The swell’s from the north and the optimum here is WNW, so it’s not a perfect match, but with that longer period and clean conditions, it’ll still wrap in nicely.

Friday the 25th morning holds 2ft from the north, 9-second period, energy at 83, with light offshore wind. The afternoon drops to 2ft but stays clean. Saturday the 26th morning is glassy, 2ft from the north-northeast, 9-second period, energy at 68 — still surfable and clean, but nothin’ to shout about.

The real standout is Thursday the 24th afternoon: 2ft, north swell, clean light cross-off wind, and energy tipping over 100. It’s the best of a quiet run — small enough for beginners to have a go, and the reef should shape up some fun little waves. Crowds are listed as “sometimes” at Dogmans, so don’t be surprised if a few locals are out there sniffin’ the same bump.

After that, it fades again into Sunday the 27th and beyond, back to 0.7ft and weak energy. So if you’re keen, that Thursday arvo and Friday morning are your best bet. It ain’t epic, but it’s the only real surf in sight.

Rusty.

Read more