Dogmans (Rincon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Well, folks, it’s Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – we’re looking at a pretty dead spell for the next 16 days around Dogmans (Rincon). There’s a solid run of flat, weak, or just plain poor surf conditions, so don’t get your hopes up for anything rideable. The only break on the radar is Dogmans, a reef setup that’s fairly consistent, but the swell just isn’t showing up.

The outlook kicks off on Tuesday, 8th September, but it’s a total washout. The morning is glassy with clear skies, but there’s zero swell energy (0 combined energy). By the afternoon, a tiny 0.7ft north swell creeps in with a 7-second period, but it’s weak and the wave energy is negligible (4). That’s not enough to push a floaty. The wind goes cross-off from the NNE at 15 km/h, but the surf is still poor.

Wednesday the 9th is even worse – morning glass, calm, but the swell is 0.3ft from the north with almost no energy (1). Thursday the 10th sees a tiny bump to 1ft from the NNE with a 10-second period, combined energy at 30, but it’s still poor. The wind is light and glassy in the morning, but the surf is too small and weak. This pattern of tiny, energy-starved 0.7ft to 1ft north-northeast swells runs right through the first week, with periods mostly between 7 and 10 seconds. The wave energy stays weak, barely cracking 30 or 40 at best. The winds are often light to glassy, perfect conditions for clean surf, but there’s nothing to ride.

Around the 16th of September, the swell period starts to stretch out. On Wednesday the 16th, there’s a 0.7ft NNE swell with a 15-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell, which usually means better shaped waves, but the size is tiny. Combined energy is still low (26). By Thursday the 17th, the period holds at 13 seconds, and the energy climbs a bit to 48, but the swell height is only 1.0ft. It’s a tease. The 18th brings a 12-second period, 1.0ft, and offshore winds from the east, so the setup is clean, but the wave height is still too small for a proper ride.

The best we see in the whole 16-day window is on Monday the 21st of September: a 1ft north swell with a 9-second period and combined energy of 35. The morning is glassy, but the wind goes cross-shore in the afternoon, creating a little chop. Still, 1ft is tiny. On Tuesday the 23rd, the energy bumps up to 43 with a 1ft NNE swell and an 8-second period, but the wind is cross-off from the SE. Again, it’s clean but far too small.

Honestly, nothing here is a standout. The combined energy never passes 48 – that’s weak, barely enough to move a sea lion. There’s no swell over 5ft, so beginners aren’t in danger, but there’s also no surf. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, no big anomaly. The reef at Dogmans needs a proper WNW swell to light up, and we’re getting dribbles of NNE windswell. If you’re a kite surfer, you might get a laugh out of the cross-off winds, but for paddle surfing, it’s a hard no.

This is a long, quiet stretch. The first recommendation is a dud, and the whole period is a blank. It’s not unusual for the area to go quiet, but forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it. For now, I’d say wax your board for the next window.

Rusty.

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