Dogmans (Rincon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Dogmans (Rincon). I gotta be straight with you – the next two weeks are bleak. We’re looking at a real flat spell with barely a ripple to get excited about for days. It’s one of those stretches where you’d be better off cleaning the wax off your board than paddling out.

We kick off Monday, August 24, with a tiny 0.7ft swell from the NNE and a period of just 7 seconds. The combined energy is a weak 5, and while the morning is glassy, the wave comment says it all: "poor surf conditions." That sets the tone. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday – all zeros on the wave height front for the most part. There’s a bit of a 0.3ft pulse from the north with some longer periods (12–13 seconds) coming in on the 26th, 27th, and 29th, but don’t be fooled. The energy is barely registering in the single digits (2–3), and the wave comment is consistently "poor surf conditions." Glassy mornings pop up here and there, like on Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th with light WNW winds, but there’s simply no water moving to surf.

The real kick in the teeth is that the optimum swell direction for Dogmans is WNW, and we hardly see any substantial swell from that quarter until much later. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so at least you won’t freeze waiting for nothing.

Now, we jump ahead to Thursday, September 3. Finally, a pulse of swell shows up. We get 3ft from the NNE with a period of 10 seconds, and the combined energy hits 135 – that’s moderate energy, finally something to talk about. But it’s an afternoon session with a cross-shore wind from the north at 9 mph, creating a bit of chop. The wave comment is still "poor surf conditions," but at least there’s some size. Friday the 4th holds similar 2–2ft from the NNE, energy in the 77–90 range, and cleaner conditions in the afternoon with cross-offshore breezes. Still, it’s nothing to write home about.

The one standout, and I mean the *only* one worth getting a little worked up over, comes on Sunday, September 6, and Monday, September 7. We’ve got 3ft from the NNE, but here’s the thing: the period jumps to 12–13 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, and the combined energy climbs to between 199 and 280. For the first time in this outlook, the wave comment upgrades to "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions." The mornings are glassy with light winds from the west or northwest. That long period means the waves will have some punch and shape, but at a reef break like Dogmans, that’s a good thing – it’ll line up nicely. The downside? It’s still only around 3ft, so it’s small, and the direction is NNE, not the preferred WNW. But with glassy conditions and that energy, it’s easily the best on offer. Tuesday the 8th keeps some 2ft from the NNE with energy in the 120s, but the wind swings onshore from the ENE, so it won’t be as clean.

The bottom line? You’re waiting until the second week for any real action, and even then, it’s a small window. The first week is a write-off. The 6th and 7th of September are your best bet for a glassy, long-period groundswell session at Dogmans. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only game in town.

Rusty.

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