Dogmans (Rincon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s be real with you. I’ve stared at the charts for the next couple of weeks, and I’ve got to be straight: it’s looking pretty flat out there. We’ve got a real dry spell on our hands. It’s not a total blank, but you’re gonna have to pick your moments, and even then, you’re mostly chasing knee-to-waist-high dribble if you’re lucky.

The next few days are a write-off, to be honest. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are just about dead, with the odd ripple sneaking in. You’ll see some tiny stuff around the 0.7ft mark with a short period, but there’s no push, no power. The combined energy is weak, with values barely scratching double digits (9). It’s more of a float-around-with-your-coffee situation than an actual surf. There are some glassy windows early on Wednesday and you might get one or two crumbly little waves on the inside, but don’t get your hopes up. The wind is mostly light, but that doesn’t matter when there’s no swell to groom.

We have a few more days of this in the first week. Thursday's got a bit of same-same – a little 1ft bump, still short period, and the energy’s still in the weak range (8). The mornings look clean with light winds, but again, it's just not doing anything. The swell direction is from the NNE, which is not what Dogmans (Rincon) really wants. It’s a reef setup that needs some solid WNW groundswell to wake up. This is just wind-slop and leftover energy.

Towards the end of the first week and into the weekend, things get even smaller. Friday and Saturday barely register anything on the buoy. There’s a couple of glassy mornings, with the swell dropping to that 0.7ft mark, but it’s just not surfable. We’re looking at several days with no real recommendations at all. It’s a quiet, empty stretch.

Now, there is a tiny blip of hope. Towards the end of the first week of September, around the 1st, we see a couple of instances where the period stretches out a bit. This long-period energy, around 11 seconds, is a hint of something, but the height is still tiny at 0.7ft. The energy is still weak, maxing out at (12), but the direction shifts slightly more to the NNE. On the morning of the 1st, it’s dead glassy with a bit of a pulse. It’s not going to be a classic, but if you’re desperate, that’s your best window for a few small, cleanish waves. This is a long way out, so I wouldn’t book a trip around it, but it’s something.

Beyond that, the guidance just shows more flatness, with a few speculative 0.3ft pulses that are just not worth paddling out for. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing crazy there.

So, the honest take is this: we’ve got a good long stretch of nothing. If you’ve got a log and a lot of patience, you might find a bump, but the standouts are far and few between. The best bet is that morning on September 1st. It’s promising because of the long period and the clean conditions, but it’s still tiny. This looks like it could be a better week for messing around on a SUP or just enjoying the beach. Keep the board waxed, but don't be surprised if you're watching the horizon more than riding it.

Stay patient.

Rusty

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