Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

To be straight with you, this 16-day window at Tocones is a real quiet one. There’s no proper surf on offer to start, and the whole run looks marginal. The first decent chance doesn’t roll around until the tail end of the first week, and even then it’s nothing to get excited about. There’s a long stretch of flat or near-flat conditions from September 7 right through to the middle of the month, with only a slight bump in energy around the 10th and 11th.

Let’s break it down. Monday September 7, we’ve got tiny 2ft swell out of the ENE at a short 8 seconds, and the combined energy is sitting at just 66 (weak). That’s a no-go. Tuesday is similar, with 3ft to 3ft swell, but still weak energy and short period. Wednesday the 9th sees a little bump in energy to 306 (moderate), but the swell is only 5ft from the E with a period of 6 seconds – that’s poor quality, bumpy, and short period chop. Not worth paddling out.

Thursday September 10, the swell peaks a bit at 5ft from the east, with a 7-second period, and energy hits 428 (moderate). The morning is still rated poor, but the afternoon creeps into *marginal* territory. If you’re desperate, it might be the best of a bad bunch, but the wind is a 15 mph cross-offshore from the ESE, which keeps it clean. Still, this is really one for the locals who just need a paddle. Friday September 11 is similar – 4ft in the morning, energy 218 (moderate), and again the afternoon is marginal. The wind stays cross-offshore, but the swell is too short period and weak to deliver any real quality.

After that, it fades fast. Saturday the 12th drops to 3ft, and by Sunday the 13th we’re down to 1ft. The rest of the run through to September 22 sees tiny swell, mostly under 2ft, with short periods and weak energy – most readings are below 100 or barely above. The wind is consistently cross or cross-off from the east or ESE at 12–15 mph, so it’s not messy, but there’s just no wave power.

There’s one little oddity on September 17: a 1ft swell from the NNE with a 13-second period – that’s a long period groundswell, but it’s so small you’d need a glassy day and a reef to make it work. Energy is still weak at 74. Not worth chasing.

The only break here is Tocones, a reef setup that’s beginner-friendly and consistent, but the swell direction is optimum from the north, and we’re seeing mostly east or ENE swell the whole time. That mismatch, combined with the tiny size, means there’s just no standout session. Honestly, if you’re into kite surfing, the clean cross-offshore winds and small waves might be more interesting than paddle surfing this month.

The water temperature? No anomaly data given, so I can’t tell you if it’s warmer or cooler than usual – call it about average for the time of year.

So, bottom line: there’s no real surf to chase here in the 16-day window. The only barely surfable days are September 10 and 11, and even those are marginal. If you’re set on getting wet, bring a longboard and low expectations.

Rusty, signing off.

Read more