Tocones Surf Break

Lat Long: 18.45° N 65.96° W

Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 7 pm 22 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Tocones sea temperature is
28.6° C
0.4° 

Tocones surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Tocones surf forecast from 23 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 23 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 7s period, ENE swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 30 Jul, 2AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 8s period, E swell with 313 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 23 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 7s period with ENE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Tocones this week:

The surf forecast for Tocones over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 23) at 5AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 7s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Tocones in the next 16 days are 1.6m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 30) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 3s period and expected on Monday (Jul 27) at 2PM.

Wave TypeTime (AST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 5AM (Thu 23rd Jul)3.5ft (1.0m) 7s
Best Surf 5AM (Thu 23rd Jul)3.5ft (1.0m) 7s
Most Powerful 2AM (Thu 30th Jul)5ft (1.6m) 8s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Tocones over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Tocones over the next 16 days.

Right off the bat, I’ve gotta be straight with you: this stretch is looking pretty flat and frustrating. The whole 16-day window is a tough one, with no solid surf on the cards. We’ve got a long gap from now with nothing worth paddling out for. The first few days are a write-off, and honestly, it doesn’t get much better as we go.

For the first week, from Wednesday the 22nd right through to the end of July, the swell is small and weak. The combined wave energy barely cracks three figures most days, sitting around 88 to 241 (weak to moderate energy). The swell is coming from the ENE at 3ft to 5ft, but the period is short – mostly 7 to 8 seconds, so it’s weak, windswelly stuff. The wind is a constant cross or cross-offshore from the east or ESE, blowing at 12 to 19 mph, which just makes everything messy. Even when the wind is cross-off, the swell is just too small and weak to offer anything decent. Every single report says “poor surf conditions” – that tells you everything.

The water temperature is 84°, which is about average for the time of year, so at least you won’t be cold while you’re sitting there waiting for a set.

As we move into the first week of August, it’s more of the same. From Saturday the 1st to Tuesday the 5th, the swell drops even further – we’re talking 2ft to 3ft, with periods dropping to 5 or 6 seconds. The energy is weak, often below 100 (weak energy). The wind still blows from the east at 12 to 16 mph, mostly cross-shore, keeping the surface lumpy. There’s no standout moment, no day where the stars align.

The only break on the list is Tocones, a reef break that’s consistent and exposed to the north, but the swell direction is from the ENE or E, which isn’t its optimum. The wind is never truly offshore for this spot – it’s always cross or cross-offshore. Even when the conditions are described as “clean,” the swell is just too small to do anything with.

Honestly, this is a blank run. It’s one of those periods where the forecast just doesn’t have any surf to get excited about. If you’re desperate, you might find a knee-high ripple on a cross-off wind day, but it’s not worth checking. The breaks are consistent here, but when the swell is this weak and the wind is this persistent, it’s a no-go. Conditions can change, but right now, I’d say save your energy and wait for the next pulse.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Warm (max 30°C on Thu afternoon, min 26°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Warm (max 30°C on Sun afternoon, min 26°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
Monday
27
Tuesday
28
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.1
ENE
7
1
ENE
7
1.1
ENE
7
1
ENE
7
1.1
ENE
7
1.2
ENE
7
1.1
E
7
0.8
NE
8
1.3
ENE
8
1.3
E
8
1.2
ENE
7
1
ENE
8
0.9
ENE
8
0.9
ENE
8
0.9
ENE
8
0.8
ENE
8
0.8
ENE
8
0.9
ENE
8
0.8
ENE
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
118
102
118
106
118
124
124
88
186
191
159
120
102
87
109
87
85
109
85
Wind (km/h)
15
SE
25
ESE
25
ESE
15
ESE
25
E
25
E
20
ESE
25
E
25
E
20
ESE
25
E
25
E
15
ESE
10
SE
25
E
10
ESE
25
ESE
25
ESE
20
ESE
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
3:21AM0.26m
5:56PM0.40m
4:13AM0.24m
6:54PM0.42m
5:11AM0.22m
7:44PM0.44m
6:10AM0.22m
8:27PM0.45m
7:04AM0.22m
9:06PM0.45m
7:54AM0.23m
9:41PM0.45m
Low Tide
11:05PM0.19m
10:14AM-0.00m
00:30AM0.20m
11:06AM-0.01m
1:42AM0.19m
11:57AM-0.01m
2:37AM0.18m
12:45PM-0.02m
3:18AM0.17m
1:30PM-0.02m
3:50AM0.16m
2:14PM-0.02m
4:17AM0.15m
clear
clear
clear
clear
thunderstorm
thunderstorm
clear
thunderstorm
clear
thunderstorm
thunderstorm
clear
thunderstorm
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
5:58
5:58
5:58
5:58
5:58
6:00
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
7:01
7:01
7:00
7:00
7:00
7:00
7:00
 mm
1
1
2
3
1
3
Temp °C
27
29
30
27
28
29
27
29
29
27
29
30
27
27
29
27
29
30
27
Feels °C
29
29
29
28
28
29
29
29
29
29
29
30
29
29
31
29
30
30
29
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Tocones Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Tocones provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Tocones can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Tocones surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Tocones) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Tocones may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

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