Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve been staring at the charts for our stretch of coast, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough run ahead. The models are showing a long, quiet spell with nothing really worth paddling out for. We’ve got one tiny flicker of hope right at the tail end, but for the most part, this forecast is a flat, blown-out mess.

Let’s start with the bad news. From Tuesday the 11th of August all the way through to Tuesday the 25th of August, there’s just nothing to get excited about. That’s a solid two-week gap. The swell is puny, mostly around 2ft to 3ft, coming from the east or east-northeast with a short, weak period of 5 to 8 seconds. The wind is a constant problem too – a steady 12 to 19 mph breeze from the east or east-southeast, keeping everything cross-shore and lumpy. The combined swell energy is weak, mostly reading between 54 and 192, which tells you there’s just no juice in the water. The water temp is sitting at 84°, which is about average for this time of year, so at least you won’t be cold while you’re sitting there waiting for a wave that never comes.

Tocones is a consistent reef break that’s exposed to the north, and it’s a beginner-friendly spot. But with the wind hammering it from the east and east-southeast, it’s just not holding up. The wave comment on every single session through this period is “poor surf conditions,” and the scores are all zeros. It’s not even worth a look.

Now, I said there was a flicker of hope. On Wednesday the 26th of August, in the afternoon, things get a little interesting. The wind swings around to the east-southeast at 12 mph, turning cross-offshore, which cleans things up nicely. The swell picks up to 4ft from the east-northeast with a period of 10 seconds, giving it a bit more shape and energy. The combined energy jumps to 356 (moderate energy), which is the best we’ve seen in the whole 16-day window. The wave comment shifts to “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions” with a score of 1 out of 10. It’s not a standout, but it’s the only window where the conditions are even close to surfable. The clean conditions and the slightly longer period mean you might snag a few fun ones if you’re desperate, but don’t expect anything epic.

Honestly, if you’re a kite surfer, this whole stretch might be more interesting than for us paddle surfers. The consistent cross-shore winds and consistent swell, even if it’s small, could be a goer for them. For the rest of us, it’s a waiting game. Forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it, but for now, I’d find another hobby for the next two weeks.

Rusty.

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