Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – I’ve looked over this forecast for our area and it’s a tough one. The whole 16-day window is looking pretty flat and uninspiring. Every single session that comes through is marked as poor surf conditions, so there's no standout day to get excited about. We’re looking at a long, dry spell.

The only break on the map here is Tocones. It’s a reef setup, consistent, and beginner-friendly, but the conditions just aren’t cooperating.

Let's break it down day by day. Starting this Sunday, July 5th, we’ve got wind thumping from the east at 16 mph, gusting up, with a weak 3 ft swell from the east at a short 6-second period. The combined swell energy is weak at 87. That’s not surf, that’s just a bumpy lake. Not worth paddling out.

Moving into Monday the 6th, Tuesday the 7th, and Wednesday the 8th, the wind stays up from the east and east-southeast, 16-19 mph. The swell bumps up just a tiny bit, hitting about 4 ft to 5 ft, still from the east-northeast with that same short period of 6 to 7 seconds. The energy creeps up to moderate levels, reading around 130 to 224, but the wind is cross or cross-off, making the surface messy. Even when it says "clean" on Wednesday morning, the wind is 16 mph, so it’s going to be blown out.

The rest of the first week, from Thursday the 9th through the weekend of the 12th, is a repeat performance – east wind, 16 mph, tiny short-period swell between 3 ft and 4 ft, and energy readings in the weak-to-moderate range (85 to 135). The water temp? No anomaly flagged, so it’s just about normal for this time of year.

Into the second week, from July 13th onward, nothing changes. Same story: east wind, 16 mph, maxing out around 5 ft on the 19th, but still that short 6-7 second period. The energy finally pushes up to 254 on Monday the 20th, but with a 5 ft east-northeast swell and east-southeast cross-off wind, it’ll still be bumpy and weak. This is not the setup for a good session.

Honestly, for a reef break like Tocones, we need some decent period and the right wind. We’re not getting it. If you're desperate for a paddle, maybe the mornings on the 8th, 9th, or 19th might look slightly better with "clean" flags, but the wind is still 16 mph. Don't expect more than a knee-high chop.

I hate to say it, but this stretch looks like a total blank. A bad run like this is normal for the area when the winds lock in from the east.

Rusty.

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