Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’m Rusty, and here’s the outlook for the break we’ve got.

Well, to be straight with you, this is a rough stretch. The whole 16-day window from now through to the end of July is looking pretty grim for any kind of decent surf at Tocones. There’s really no good option on the table. The swell is tiny and weak, mostly around 2ft to 4ft, coming out of the east or east-northeast, with short, weak periods of 5 to 7 seconds. That’s just not enough push to get the reef working properly. The combined swell energy is mostly in the low to moderate range, peaking around 352 on the 27th of July, but even then the wind and conditions are messy.

The wind is the real killer here. It’s blowing from the east or east-southeast at 12 to 18 mph for the entire period, and it’s almost always cross or cross-off. That means the surface is constantly chopped up or lumpy, especially on the 25th and 26th of July when it picks up to a fresh breeze with a proper lumpy cross-chop. The water temperature is about 83°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year, no big anomaly there.

There’s a tiny glimmer on the 27th of July, Monday afternoon, when the wind turns cross-off and the swell hits 4ft with a 8-second period, but it’s still only a marginal call. The combined energy is 212, which is moderate, but it’s not enough to get excited about. The whole setup is just too small, too short-period, and too windy to be worth paddling out. If you’re a kite surfer, the consistent cross-shore wind might be interesting, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a no-go.

Honestly, this is the kind of blank run that’s normal for this area when the trade winds are up and the swell is down. The forecasts can change, but right now, I’d say don’t bother. Stay home and wax your board for another day.

Rusty.

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