Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks.

First up, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a grim run ahead. We’re looking at a solid 16-day stretch here at Tocones, and honestly, there’s not a single day I’d be rushing to grab my board. The whole window is a write-off for any decent surf.

The main issue is that easterly wind. It’s blowing a steady 15 to 19 mph, day in, day out. It’s coming from the east, which is a direct cross-shore to cross-offshore wind for the break, but it’s just too strong. “Fresh breeze” is the term being thrown around, and it’s creating a lumpy, cross-chop on the surface. The water’s warm, sitting at 84°F with a normal anomaly for the time of year, but the surface is just a mess.

The swell itself is tiny and weak. For the first week, we’ve got a 5ft to 3ft easterly swell, but with a period of just 6 to 7 seconds. That’s short-period, wind-affected slop, not a proper groundswell. The combined energy is moderate at best, hitting a high of 218 (moderate wave energy) on the 9th, but it quickly drops off into the low hundreds and even double digits. It’s just not holding any power.

From Thursday the 17th onward, it gets even smaller, with swell dropping to 3ft to 2ft and periods still stuck in the 5 to 8 second range. The energy is weak, barely cracking 100 (weak wave energy). The wind eases slightly to 15 mph, but it’s still cross, and the surf is just poor.

There is a slight bump in swell around the 22nd and 23rd of July, with swell hitting 5ft to 5ft from the ENE, and a period of 7 seconds. The energy climbs back up to a moderate 274 (moderate wave energy). But here’s the kicker: it’s still blowing a fresh 19 mph cross-shore. That’s a brown-pants day for a beginner, and for anyone else, it’s just a messy, blown-out wall of whitewash. The swell is over 5ft, so it’s too big for beginners, and with the wind and short period, it’s not even good for experts.

For a consistent reef break that’s usually exposed to the north, this is a tough run. The optimum swell direction from the north is not what we’re getting. The east and east-northeast swells we’re seeing aren’t hitting the break right. Because the surf is so poor and the wind is so strong, this setup at Tocones looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. There’s just no standouts here, not a single day worth a mention.

We’re looking at a blank 16-day run. In this area, it happens, but it’s a bummer. Forecasts can change, but right now, this one looks locked in.

Rusty.

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