Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Tocones over the next 16 days.

Right off the bat, I’ve gotta be straight with you: this stretch is looking pretty flat and frustrating. The whole 16-day window is a tough one, with no solid surf on the cards. We’ve got a long gap from now with nothing worth paddling out for. The first few days are a write-off, and honestly, it doesn’t get much better as we go.

For the first week, from Wednesday the 22nd right through to the end of July, the swell is small and weak. The combined wave energy barely cracks three figures most days, sitting around 88 to 241 (weak to moderate energy). The swell is coming from the ENE at 3ft to 5ft, but the period is short – mostly 7 to 8 seconds, so it’s weak, windswelly stuff. The wind is a constant cross or cross-offshore from the east or ESE, blowing at 12 to 19 mph, which just makes everything messy. Even when the wind is cross-off, the swell is just too small and weak to offer anything decent. Every single report says “poor surf conditions” – that tells you everything.

The water temperature is 84°, which is about average for the time of year, so at least you won’t be cold while you’re sitting there waiting for a set.

As we move into the first week of August, it’s more of the same. From Saturday the 1st to Tuesday the 5th, the swell drops even further – we’re talking 2ft to 3ft, with periods dropping to 5 or 6 seconds. The energy is weak, often below 100 (weak energy). The wind still blows from the east at 12 to 16 mph, mostly cross-shore, keeping the surface lumpy. There’s no standout moment, no day where the stars align.

The only break on the list is Tocones, a reef break that’s consistent and exposed to the north, but the swell direction is from the ENE or E, which isn’t its optimum. The wind is never truly offshore for this spot – it’s always cross or cross-offshore. Even when the conditions are described as “clean,” the swell is just too small to do anything with.

Honestly, this is a blank run. It’s one of those periods where the forecast just doesn’t have any surf to get excited about. If you’re desperate, you might find a knee-high ripple on a cross-off wind day, but it’s not worth checking. The breaks are consistent here, but when the swell is this weak and the wind is this persistent, it’s a no-go. Conditions can change, but right now, I’d say save your energy and wait for the next pulse.

Rusty.

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