Surf Forecasts:
Tocones surf forecast from 29 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 2 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 8s period, ENE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 30 Jul, 2PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 8s period, E swell with 259 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 2 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 8s period with ENE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Tocones this week:
The surf forecast for Tocones over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 11PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Tocones in the next 16 days are 1.5m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 30) at 2PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 7s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 30) at 11PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 11PM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 11PM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 2PM (Thu 30th Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Tocones over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it for Tocones. I’ve had a good look at the 16-day window and I gotta be honest with you – it’s a tough stretch. The forecast is pretty much a flat spell with a lot of wind to deal with.
We kick off on Tuesday the 28th of July. There’s a tiny bit of swell in the water, only 2ft from the ENE, but the wind is a cross-off from the East at 16 mph. It’s clean, but the wave energy is weak (65). The water temp is sitting at 84°, which is about average for this time of year. Honestly, it’s poor surf conditions. You’d be scratching for a ride.
The next few days don’t look much better. Wednesday the 29th sees a little more size, up to 3ft, but the period drops to 6 seconds – that’s short-period, weak, windswell. The energy stays weak (82). By Thursday the 30th, we get a bump to 5ft from the East, with a period of 8 seconds and a bit more energy (254), but the wind is cross-off. Still, the forecast calls it poor surf conditions. The wind is a fresh breeze, so it’s not going to be fun.
Through the end of July and into the first week of August, the swell hangs around 3ft to 5ft, mostly from the ENE with short periods, and the wind is constantly cross or cross-off. There’s a lot of lumpy chop and fresh cross-shore winds. The combined energy stays moderate at best, never really hitting the sweet spot. Friday the 7th of August has a pulse of 4ft and energy jumps to 270, but the wind is fresh and cross, making it a lumpy mess.
The second week is a complete write-off. Swell drops to 2ft to 3ft, periods are 5-6 seconds, and the energy is weak (32-83). The wind is still howling. There’s even a risk of thunderstorms on the 12th. There is no standout day, no hidden gem, nothing to get excited about.
For a reef break like Tocones that is exposed to the North, this East wind is just not the right direction, and the short-period swell won’t wrap in properly. This is a classic case of a long, flat, windy run. If you’re a kite surfer, the wind is consistent, but for a paddle surfer, leave the board at home. The blank run here is pretty normal for this time of year when the conditions don’t align.
Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Thu night. Warm (max 30°C on Tue afternoon, min 27°C on Tue night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Warm (max 29°C on Fri afternoon, min 26°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Tue 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 8 | E 6 | E 6 | E 6 | ENE 8 | E 8 | E 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | E 7 | ENE 7 | ENE 6 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 37 | 39 | 49 | 132 | 202 | 253 | 239 | 232 | 253 | 226 | 196 | 163 | 163 | 147 | 117 | 105 | 147 | 112 | 114 | 95 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:41PM0.45m | 8:40AM0.24m | 10:13PM0.45m | 9:24AM0.26m | 10:43PM0.43m | 10:10AM0.28m | 11:12PM0.41m | 10:59AM0.31m | 11:39PM0.38m | 11:51AM0.33m | 00:05AM0.35m | 12:49PM0.36m | 00:32AM0.32m | |||||||
Low Tide | 2:14PM-0.02m | 4:17AM0.15m | 2:56PM-0.02m | 4:41AM0.14m | 3:38PM-0.01m | 5:04AM0.12m | 4:21PM0.01m | 5:27AM0.10m | 5:07PM0.03m | 5:53AM0.08m | 5:55PM0.07m | 6:23AM0.05m | 6:49PM0.11m | |||||||
 |  |  | | | | |  | | | |  | |  | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — |
 | 7:00 | — | — | 6:59 | — | — | 6:59 | — | — | 6:59 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:57 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 2 | — | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 30 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 27 |
Feels °C | 30 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 28 | 29 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 8 | E 6 | NE 9 | NE 9 | ENE 8 | N 6 | — | SE 7 | — | — | ENE 8 | — | N 9 | ENE 8 | NW 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | NW 7 | NW 7 | ENE 6 |
| kJ | 37 | 39 | 21 | 13 | 202 | 1 | — | 23 | — | — | 196 | — | 2 | 147 | 3 | 105 | 147 | 2 | 2 | 95 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 11 | ENE 8 | E 8 | N 7 | N 7 | — | N 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 8 | — | NW 8 | NW 8 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 4 | 26 | 12 | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NE 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 5 | — | E 6 | E 6 | — | E 8 | E 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | — | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | — | ENE 7 | — | — | E 7 | ENE 7 | — |
| kJ | 24 | — | 49 | 132 | — | 253 | 239 | 232 | 253 | 226 | — | 163 | 163 | — | 117 | — | — | 112 | 114 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 1267 | 71 | 452 | 137 | 53 | 125 | 125 | 347 | 879 | 879 | 6 | 53 | 644 | 12 | 53 | 53 | 0 | 125 | 135 | 30 |
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Information about the Tocones Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Tocones provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Tocones can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Tocones surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Tocones) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Tocones may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
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