Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s going on with the surf at Tocones. Straight up, it’s a tough stretch ahead. This is a consistent reef break that’s exposed to the north, and it’s usually a beginner-friendly spot, but the next couple of weeks are looking pretty flat and messy. There’s a real gap in quality surf here, with nothing really worth paddling out for until we get into the end of the month.

The water is sitting at 84°, which is about average for the time of year, so no need to worry about a wetsuit.

We start off on Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th with tiny, weak swell. We’re talking 2ft to 2ft from the east and east-southeast, with short, snappy periods of 5 to 8 seconds. The combined energy is weak, bouncing between 55 and 63 (weak energy). The wind is blowing cross or cross-off at 12 to 16 mph, which at least keeps the surface clean on Wednesday, but there just isn’t enough push to make it fun. It’s poor surf all the way.

That pattern holds through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Swell heights barely nudge past 3ft, and the period stays short. The wind stays mostly cross-shore, so it’s lumpy and choppy. The energy values are still in the weak to low-moderate range, hitting 117 on the 21st, but it’s still not enough to get excited about. Nothing to recommend here.

We hit the middle of the second week, and things start to get a bit more interesting, but it’s still not great. On Tuesday the 25th, we see a pulse of very long-period groundswell, with a 14-second period from the east, but the height is tiny at 2ft to 2ft. The combined energy jumps to 163 and then 217 (moderate energy), but with a cross-on wind and a risk of thunderstorms, the conditions are poor. The long period might make those few waves stand up a bit, but there’s just not enough size.

The standout window, and the only real chance in the whole 16 days, is on Thursday the 27th. The morning looks like the pick. We’ll have a 4ft swell from the east-northeast with a 9-second period, giving a combined energy of 225 (moderate energy). The wind is light and cross-off from the east-southeast at only 6 mph, making for clean conditions. The forecast says “expect good surf conditions” here, and it’s the only session that gets a score above zero. It’s a small window, but for a beginner-friendly reef, that 4ft with clean winds is the best we’ll see. The afternoon on the same day gets a bit windier and the swell drops off, so get it while you can.

After that, it’s back to the same old story. From Friday the 28th right through to the 2nd of September, we’re looking at 1ft to 4ft swell, mostly from the east, with short periods and cross-shore winds. The energy is still weak to moderate. The water will be warm, but the surf quality is “poor” across the board. Even the clean sessions on the 31st won’t have enough size to get you going.

So, the long and short of it: there’s a big gap of poor surf, broken only by a single promising morning on the 27th. If you’re a kite surfer, that persistent cross-shore wind might be more your speed, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a waiting game.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on the forecasts.

Rusty.

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