Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for this stretch.

Honestly, looking at the whole 16-day window, it's a pretty grim run for Tocones. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing special, and the only real pulse of energy comes right at the very end, but it's a long way out. The water temp is sitting at 85°, which is about normal for this time of year, so at least a dip won't be a shock.

The first sign of any surf worth mentioning doesn't even show up until the morning of the 10th of September, and even then it's a miss. We start with a 4ft ENE swell, but that period is a short 7 seconds, and the cross-off wind from the ESE at 16 mph is messy. The combined energy is moderate at 187, but the conditions are just poor. That pretty much sets the tone for the next couple of weeks.

From Thursday the 10th right through until the afternoon of the 25th of September, it's a wasteland. The swell is small, mostly under 3ft, with periods all over the shop but mostly short, and the wind is a constant cross or cross-off breeze, never swinging truly offshore. The energy drops off a cliff, with values like 56, 66, and even 17, which is weak. There's a couple of clean mornings in there, but with swells barely reaching 1.0ft, it's not going to give you a ride.

If you're desperate for a paddle, the early morning of the 19th of September has a bit of a bump in energy to 108, but it's still a tiny 2ft swell from the E with a 7-second period. The wind is clean cross-off, but the size is just too small to get excited about.

The one outlier is the afternoon of the 25th of September. That's a long way off, so take it with a grain of salt, but it’s the only time the numbers jump. A 3ft N swell with a 10-second period, pushing energy up to 157 (moderate). The wind is still cross at 16 mph, so it won't be glassy, but it's a better setup than anything else. For a reef break like Tocones, that longer period from the N could make for a better shaped wave, but the size is still small. This is the only standout, and it's a bit of a promise on the horizon.

Alright, that's the long and short of it. Stay tuned, forecasts can change, but for now, it's a waiting game.

Rusty.

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