Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's break this down, crew. Rusty here.

First up, I gotta be straight with you: the next two weeks are looking pretty darn quiet for Tocones. We're staring down a long stretch of small, weak surf and persistent cross-shore winds that are going to mess with the face of the wave. The water temperature is sitting at a warm 84°F, which is about average for this time of year, so at least the wait will be comfortable.

For Thursday the 30th and into Friday the 31st, we've got a bit of swell around 4ft-5ft from the ENE. The energy is moderate, in that 204-219 range, but the period is short at just 8 seconds, so the waves will be weak and crumbly. Add in a steady 16 mph cross-shore wind and you're looking at choppy, poor surf. Honestly, not worth paddling out.

Saturday the 1st sees the swell drop a touch to 4ft, and the wind swings to a cross-offshore, which cleans things up a bit. The energy drops to 137-173, but with a period dropping to 7 seconds, it's going to be even mushier. It's a slight improvement, but still not a good session.

From Sunday the 2nd all the way through to Tuesday the 13th of August, it's a real downer. Swell heights dwindle from 3ft down to a pathetic 2ft at times, and the energy levels fall into the weak category (down into the 30s). The wind stays mostly cross or cross-off, but the waves are just too small and weak to do anything with. It's a long, boring stretch of flatness.

Things perk up ever so slightly on Wednesday the 12th and into Thursday the 13th of August. The swell bumps back up to 4ft, and the energy jumps to 222 on Wednesday morning – that's moderate energy, but the period is still a short 6 seconds. The problem? The wind is howling at 19 mph, creating a lumpy, fresh cross-chop. It's going to be a battle and not a fun one.

Finally, on Friday the 14th of August, we get a shift. The swell drops right back to 2ft, but the direction swings to the NE and the period stretches out to 10 seconds. That longer period gives the wave better shape and energy. The direction (NE) is not the optimum for Tocones (which likes N), but the energy is moderate (96-104) and the longer period could wrap in a little cleaner. But again, the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, so it'll be lumpy. It's not a standout, just the best of a bad bunch.

To be clear, the only break we're looking at is Tocones – a consistent reef setup that is exposed to the north. It's a beginner-friendly spot, and it often gets crowded when the surf is good. Unfortunately, that's not the case here.

All in all, there is no true standout in this outlook. The best you could hope for is a grovel session on Saturday the 1st if you're desperate, or a wind-swept paddle on the 12th. The rest of the time, leave the board in the car. Forecasts change, so keep an eye on it, but for now, it's a long wait.

Rusty.

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