Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Tocones over the next couple of weeks.

Straight off the bat, I gotta be honest with you – this is a pretty quiet stretch. There’s not a single standout day in the whole 16-day window. The first week is especially rough. We’re looking at a long gap from the start all the way through to the end of July with nothing worth paddling out for. The majority of the forecast is marked by poor surf conditions, with the only real action being a small window of "marginal" surf on the morning of the 1st of August.

The water temperature at Tocones is sitting at 84°F with a small positive anomaly of 1°F, so it’s feeling a little warmer than average for this time of year, but nothing wild.

Let’s break it down. From Monday the 27th of July right through to the end of the month, the swell is tiny, mostly around 2 ft to 5 ft, coming from the ENE or E with short periods of 6 to 8 seconds. The wind is a constant cross or cross-off breeze from the E or ESE, blowing at 15 to 19 mph. That breeze is cleaning things up a bit, but the swell is just too weak and short-period to make anything of it. The combined energy stays low, mostly in the double digits, only briefly touching 280 (moderate) on the morning of the 30th, but even then, the conditions are still rated poor. It’s the kind of setup that might look more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers, to be honest.

Then on Saturday the 1st of August, we finally get a slight glimmer. The morning sees a 4 ft swell from the E at 8 seconds, with a cross-off ESE breeze at 15 mph. The combined energy hits 345 (moderate), and the surf is described as "marginal". That’s the best we’ve got. The waves will be clean, but it’s not going to be anything special. The afternoon drops back to poor.

After that, it’s back to the same story. The rest of the first week of August and into the second week is all small, weak swell from the ENE or E, periods of 6 to 8 seconds, and persistent cross-shore winds. The combined energy barely cracks 100 most days, and the conditions are consistently poor. The morning of the 6th of August is noted as "surfable but very ordinary", with a 3 ft swell from the NE, but the wind is still cross-off and the energy is only 85 (weak). Not worth getting excited about.

So, what’s the best on offer? Honestly, it’s the morning of the 1st of August. That’s your only real chance at a paddle, and even then, keep your expectations low. The rest of the run is a bust. It’s a common pattern for this area when the swell window dries up. Don’t lose hope, though – forecasts can change, and it tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty.

Read more