Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for Tocones over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, it’s a tough start. We’re looking at a solid block of poor conditions right through the first week. The wind is mostly cross or cross-shore from the east, blowing at 15 to 19 mph, and that’s making a mess of things. The swell is short-period windswell, with periods of just 6 to 8 seconds, and the energy is weak to moderate at best (176–492). The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing wild there.

Sunday the 9th through Saturday the 15th – forget it. The surf is there, but it’s lumpy, chopped up, and just not fun. Even as the swell builds toward the weekend – we see 6 ft to 7 ft from the east-northeast by Friday and Saturday – the wind keeps it sloppy. That kind of size with cross-shore chop makes it a kite-surfing setup more than a paddle session.

There’s a real gap of almost no hope until Tuesday the 18th. That afternoon, the wind swings around to the west-northwest, drops to just 3 mph, and we get a glassy window. Swell is 4 ft from the east with a 10-second period (moderate energy at 266). This is the standout of the whole outlook – clean, groomed, and a proper chance for some fun lines at the reef. For beginners, 4 ft is manageable, and with glassy conditions, it’s a good time.

Wednesday the 19th morning stays clean with a gentle cross-offshore breeze and 3 ft swell from the east at 8 seconds (energy 206). It’s small but rideable and clean.

After that, it fades hard. From Thursday the 20th onward, we’re back to tiny, weak surf, mostly under 2 ft, with poor energy (30–63). Winds are cross or cross-off, but there’s just not enough swell to bother with. That flat spell looks to carry right through to the end of the outlook, though there’s a hint of a pulse around Monday the 24th with 4 ft and 207 energy – but it’s still cross-shore and messy.

So bottom line: if you’ve got patience, hold out for Tuesday the 18th. That’s your best shot – small but clean and glassy. The rest of the window is either blown out or flat.

Rusty

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