Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming down the pipe.

Gonna be a long stretch of quiet for us. We’re looking at a run of days where the swell just doesn’t have any real push, and the wind is working against us. The first ten days or so are pretty flat and choppy. It’s only toward the tail end of the month that we see a pulse of energy, but it comes with complications.

Right now, through all of next week and into the following, Tocones is copping a lot of moderate breeze from the east and east-northeast. Most of that is cross-shore with a cross-chop, making for messy conditions. Wave heights bounce around the 1 ft to 3 ft mark with short period, weak energy. The combined swell energy stays in the low double digits to barely triple digits (44–134), which is weak. Not much to get excited about. The water is about 84°, which is a touch warmer than average for this time of year, but nothing too wild.

Now, if you’re willing to wait, there's a window that shows some promise. On Wednesday, August 26, things finally change. The wind swings light, going cross-offshore in the morning and then clean offshore by the afternoon. Swell jumps to a legitimate 5 ft out of the east-northeast with a long period of 11–12 seconds. That’s groundswell energy. Combined energy hits a strong 446 Wednesday morning and 314 in the afternoon. This is the standout of the whole outlook. Because Tocones is a reef break and the swell direction matches the optimum (north), those long-period waves should set up nicely. The light wind will mean clean, glassy faces. This one is for the experienced crowd though – 5 ft with that period will hold plenty of power.

Blink and you’ll miss it though. By Thursday, August 27, the swell has dropped back to 2 ft and the east breeze picks up again, killing the quality.

The rest of the forecast after that goes back to the same pattern of small, weak, wind-affected surf. There isn’t another proper window worth chasing.

So, in short: full drought until the last week of August. The one real highlight is Wednesday, August 26. If you can make it, that’s the day. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game. Forecasts change, but right now, things are looking slim.

Rusty.

Read more