Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks at Tocones.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – it’s looking pretty bleak. There’s not a single day in this whole 16-day stretch that I’d call good. We’re talking a solid run of poor surf conditions all the way from Friday the 11th of September through to Saturday the 26th. That’s a long dry spell.

We start off Friday the 11th with a weak 3ft swell out of the east, a short 8-second period, and cross-off winds from the east at 16 mph. The water’s sitting at a warm 85°, which is pretty average for this time of year. The combined energy is weak at best (185). It’s clean, but there’s just no push. Saturday the 12th isn’t any better, dropping to 3ft with a cross-shore breeze that’s gonna mess up the face. That weak energy drops into the low hundreds (124 and 108).

Things actually get worse. From Sunday the 13th through to the middle of the next week, we’re stuck with tiny swell – mostly 3ft down to 2ft – and period dropping to a pathetic 5 or 6 seconds. The energy numbers are scraping the bottom of the barrel, with values like 62, 49, and 66. Even though we get some clean windows with cross-off winds, the swell is just too small and weak to bother with. For a beginner spot like Tocones, it might be flat.

Toward the end of the second week, around the 21st of September, we see a tiny 1.0ft swell with a long 13-second period, but that’s just a whisper. The energy is still weak (53). For a reef break like this, that long period might offer a rare little clean wave, but it’s a gamble. By the 26th of September, the swell shifts to the north-northwest with a period of 11 seconds, but we’re still looking at under 2ft and lumpy cross-shore winds. The energy finally cracks triple digits at 103, but the height just isn’t there.

Honestly, there’s nothing here to get excited about. No standouts, no windows. If you’re desperate for a paddle, maybe the cleanest days with cross-off wind (like the 20th or 21st) will give you something to sit on, but don’t expect to ride much. This is one of those times you save the wax for another day. Forecasts can change, but this run looks stubborn.

Rusty.

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