Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the table for Tocones. To be straight with you, this 16-day window is a tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, weak surf with winds that are mostly cross or cross-offshore, which keeps things clean but doesn’t do much for the size. The real story is the lack of any solid pulse. There’s a tiny bump in energy around September 10th, but it’s marginal at best. For most of the period, the combined energy is low, often under 100, which tells you the ocean is just not fired up. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing weird there.

The first real chance to even think about paddling out comes on Thursday, September 10th. In the afternoon, we get a slight lift: swell height hits 5ft from the east, with a period of 8 seconds and the combined energy jumps to 432 (moderate energy). The wind is cross-offshore from the ESE at 15 mph, so the face will be clean. This is the best on offer, but it’s still a marginal call – the forecast calls it “questionable tide conditions.” For a beginner-friendly reef break like Tocones, 5ft is on the upper end of comfortable, but the short period (8 seconds) means the waves will be a bit fat and mushy. Still, if you’re desperate, this is your window.

After that, it drops right back down. The 11th and 12th see the swell shrink to 2ft – 2ft, with energy crashing back to the 70s and 100s. The wind stays cross-off, keeping it clean, but there’s just no power. From September 13th onward, we’re looking at a real flat spell. Heights hover around 1ft to 3ft, periods are all over the place from 5 to 9 seconds, and the combined energy barely registers (from 16 to 126). Honestly, from Sunday the 13th right through to Sunday the 20th, it’s a write-off for any decent surfing. The swell is too small and weak to do much with, even with clean conditions. The best I can say is the water is glassy, but you’d be floating more than surfing.

So, bottom line: there’s no standout session here. The only day that even raises an eyebrow is September 10th, and even then, it’s a “maybe” at best. For a beginner-friendly reef that’s consistent, this is a disappointing run. But that’s the way it goes sometimes. Forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it, but for now, I’d leave the board in the car.

Rusty.

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