Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got the lowdown on the next 16 days for our local patch. Right off the bat, I’ll be straight with you—this is a tough one. The window opens with a marginal session on Monday afternoon, but then we’re looking at a long, dry spell that stretches from Tuesday morning right through to the end of the period. The forecast shows a lot of clean-looking conditions, but the swell just isn’t delivering the goods for paddle surfing.

Let’s start with the only real glimmer. On Monday afternoon, 31 August, Tocones (a reef break) sees a 4ft ENE swell with a 9-second period. The combined energy is moderate at 238, and with a cross-off ESE breeze at 12 mph, it’ll be clean. The water’s sitting at 85°, which is about normal for this time of year. That said, the forecast calls it marginal, so it’s not a standout—just a chance to get wet if you’re desperate.

Then it goes quiet. From Tuesday, 1 September, through to the end of the forecast on 15 September, every single session is rated as poor. The swell drops to 3ft or less, often as low as 1ft, with periods as short as 4 to 5 seconds—that’s pretty much windswell and not worth the paddle. The winds are mostly cross or cross-off, keeping things clean at times, but the energy levels are weak, with combined energy values mostly under 100 (like 32, 45, 77). Even when it picks up slightly on 9 September with a 4ft swell and consistent energy around 146, the forecasting still says poor, and the period is only 6 seconds, so there’s no power behind it.

For a couple of days around 5–6 September, you might see clean conditions with a cross-off breeze, but the swell is just 2–3ft, and the energy is feeble. Don’t get your hopes up. This is a solid 14-day gap with no real surf on offer, and since Tocones is a reef that’s consistent but just not getting any swell, it’s one of those stretches where the ocean has gone to sleep. If you’re a kite surfer, the strong cross-off winds on those clean days might be more interesting than a surfboard, but for pure wave riding, we’re out of luck.

Overall, the best bet is that Monday afternoon, and even that’s a bit of a gamble. For the rest of the window, save your energy and check back in a week or two—forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a flat spell.

Rusty

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