Surf Forecasts:
Tocones surf forecast from 23 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 24 Jul, 2AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 7s period, ENE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 30 Jul, 2AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 8s period, E swell with 262 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 24 Jul, 2AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 7s period with ENE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Tocones this week:
The surf forecast for Tocones over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 2AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 7s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Tocones in the next 16 days are 1.5m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 30) at 2AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.1m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 2AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 2AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 7s |
| Best Surf | 2AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 7s |
| Most Powerful | 2AM (Thu 30th Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Tocones over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, Rusty here.
Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – this 16-day window for Tocones is a real tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of pretty disappointing conditions. The forecast kicks off on Thursday the 23rd of July, and honestly, there’s nothing worth paddling out for until the very end of the month. For the first seven days, it’s all “poor surf conditions” with a score of zero. The wind is a relentless cross or cross-off breeze from the East at 16 mph, and the swell is short-period, mushy stuff. The wave energy is weak, sitting at just 86 (moderate) on Thursday morning, and it barely climbs from there. The water temperature is 84°F, which is about normal for this time of year, but that’s the only thing that’s average.
The only real glimmer of hope comes on Friday the 31st of July. The afternoon session at Tocones shows a bit of life. The swell bumps up to 4ft from the ENE, with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy hits 223 (moderate). The wind goes cross-offshore from the ESE at 16 mph, and the wave comment says “clean”. The score is a 1. But even then, it’s only “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions”. It’s not a classic, but it’s the best we’ve got. For a beginner-friendly reef break that’s consistent and often crowded, this might be a chance to get wet, but the energy is still short-period and won’t have much punch.
After that, from the 1st of August onwards, it’s back to the same story: poor conditions, weak energy (dropping to 45 by the 7th), and cross-shore winds. There’s a big gap from the start until that Friday the 31st, and then another dry spell to close out the window. It’s one of those periods where the forecast is as flat as a lake. Don’t hold your breath.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Warm (max 29°C on Thu morning, min 25°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Warm (max 30°C on Mon afternoon, min 25°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | E 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 7 | E 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | E 6 | E 8 | E 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 86 | 111 | 99 | 96 | 124 | 186 | 186 | 96 | 215 | 140 | 134 | 99 | 87 | 109 | 75 | 75 | 110 | 110 | 40 | 196 | 262 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:56PM0.40m | 4:13AM0.24m | 6:54PM0.42m | 5:11AM0.22m | 7:44PM0.44m | 6:10AM0.22m | 8:27PM0.45m | 7:04AM0.22m | 9:06PM0.45m | 7:54AM0.23m | 9:41PM0.45m | 8:40AM0.24m | 10:13PM0.45m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:14AM-0.00m | 00:30AM0.20m | 11:06AM-0.01m | 1:42AM0.19m | 11:57AM-0.01m | 2:37AM0.18m | 12:45PM-0.02m | 3:18AM0.17m | 1:30PM-0.02m | 3:50AM0.16m | 2:14PM-0.02m | 4:17AM0.15m | 2:56PM-0.02m | 4:41AM0.14m | |||||||
 | |  | | | |  | |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — |
 | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | 6:59 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | — | — | 5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
Temp °C | 29 | 29 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 27 | 29 | 30 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 27 |
Feels °C | 29 | 28 | 29 | 28 | 29 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 29 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | — | — | ENE 8 | — | NE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 7 | E 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | — | — | ENE 8 | NE 8 | N 8 | E 8 |
| kJ | 86 | 111 | 99 | — | — | 186 | — | 82 | 176 | 140 | 134 | 99 | 87 | 109 | 75 | — | — | 110 | 35 | 1 | 181 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 5 | — | — | ENE 10 | — | — | N 7 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 10 | — | — | 1 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | — | ENE 8 | E 7 | E 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | — | E 6 | E 8 | E 8 |
| kJ | — | — | — | 96 | 124 | — | 186 | 96 | 215 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 75 | 110 | — | 40 | 196 | 262 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 165 | 338 | 0 | 841 | 841 | 14 | 137 | 874 | 128 | 165 | 53 | 0 | 30 | 165 | 0 | 978 | 1288 | 0 | 125 | 874 | 5 |
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Information about the Tocones Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Tocones provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Tocones can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Tocones surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Tocones) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Tocones may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
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