Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this 16-day window for Tocones is a tough one. We’ve got a real dry spell on our hands. The whole first week and a half is basically a write-off. The swell is tiny, the wind is mostly cross-shore or cross-off, and the models are just feeding us “poor surf conditions” day after day.

From the 1st of September right through to the 13th, there’s nothing worth paddling out for. Swell heights are hanging around 0.7 ft to 3 ft, and the combined energy is weak, mostly under 100. The wind is a constant problem too – a moderate breeze from the east or southeast, keeping things chopped up and messy. It’s a long, quiet stretch.

We finally see a flicker of life on the morning of Monday the 14th of September. The forecast calls it “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” You’ll be looking at a clean 3 ft wave from the east, with a light ESE breeze. The combined energy is a weak 89, so it’s a one-star morning at best. Don’t get your hopes up.

The real standout, if you want to call it that, is shaping up almost two weeks out. Check the afternoon of Wednesday the 16th of September. We see the swell bump up to 3 ft from the ENE, with a period of 9 seconds. The wind is still a cross-shore, but the combined energy jumps to 203 (moderate energy). It’s still deep in the “poor surf conditions” column, but it’s the only window where the ocean looks like it might have a pulse. For a reef break like Tocones that’s exposed and consistent, this is about the best we’ve got. It’s a long-range call, so it’s promising but less certain.

For the rest of the time, the setup is more interesting for the kite crew than us paddle surfers.

Stay patient. These blanks happen here. Forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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