Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this 16-day window for Tocones is a tough one to call. The truth is, the surf is pretty much flat and the winds are just never lining up right. We’ve got a solid run of poor conditions that stretches from the start all the way through. There’s a big gap with no decent surf on offer, and honestly, the first real chance of anything rideable doesn’t pop up until Wednesday morning, September 9th, but even that’s a stretch.

The Rundown:

We start off with a long, bleak stretch. From Sunday, September 6th, right through to Tuesday, September 8th, the swell is tiny – 2 ft to 3 ft – and it’s from the east or east-northeast with a short, weak period of 6 to 8 seconds. The combined energy is low, sitting between 61 and 134 (weak to moderate energy). The wind is a persistent cross-off or cross-shore from the east-southeast at 12 to 16 mph, which keeps the surface messy and blown out. It’s a total write-off for paddle surfing.

The energy finally starts to build on Wednesday morning, September 9th, with the swell pushing up to 5 ft from the east, but with a period of just 6 seconds – that’s short-period wind swell. The combined energy hits 315 (moderate energy), and the wind is cross-off from the ESE at 16 mph. The forecast calls it a “marginal” option, and I’d agree. It’s the best we’ve got, but it’s still pretty average. The afternoon sees the energy drop back to 184 (moderate energy) and the wind goes cross-shore, so it’s not cleaning up.

From Thursday, September 10th, through to the end of the window on Monday, September 21st, it’s a sad story. Swell heights drop back to 1 ft to 4 ft, periods are mostly 5 to 10 seconds, and the combined energy is consistently in the 26 to 258 range (weak to moderate energy). The wind is a mix of cross-off and cross-shore from the east or east-southeast at 12 to 16 mph. The water is about average for the time of year, so no complaints there, but there’s just no wave energy to work with.

The Best of a Bad Lot:

If you’re absolutely desperate, Wednesday morning, September 9th, is the only time the swell gets over 3 ft. The 5 ft from the east, combined with a cross-off wind, might give you a few crumbly lines at the take-off zone. But with a 6-second period, it’s going to be lumpy and weak. It’s really a kite-surfing breeze more than a proper surf session. The break is a consistent reef, exposed to the north, but the swell is coming from the east – not the optimum direction. And with crowds often around, it’ll be a frustrating wait for a half-decent wave.

The Bottom Line:

This is a blank run. For an area like this, it’s a more normal pattern when the forecasts are quiet. Don’t hold your breath. The best you can do is keep an eye on the sky, but right now, there’s nothing worth paddling out for.

Rusty.

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