Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you – this is a tough one to call. We're looking at a solid 16-day window for Tocones, but the reality is that the conditions are just not playing ball. The wind is locked in from the east, and that's creating a persistent cross-shore chop that's wrecking the surface. While there's always some swell in the water, it's not being allowed to show its face. The water temp is sitting at a warm 84°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so at least you won't be cold while you're getting frustrated.

The first few days, from this Sunday the 2nd right through to the end of the first week, are a write-off. Swell is small, around 2ft to 4ft, and coming from the east with a short period of 6 to 7 seconds. That's weak, choppy stuff. The wind is a constant 12 to 16 mph cross-shore, making it a bumpy, frustrating mess. The combined wave energy is low, often in the double digits, and never gets above 156. It's just poor surf conditions across the board.

We do get a few brief moments of reprieve. On the morning of Thursday the 6th, the wind swings to cross-offshore, and the wave comment says "clean." The swell is 3ft, but it's still short period. It's a tiny window, and it's gone by the afternoon. We see a similar pattern on the morning of Saturday the 8th, and again on Wednesday the 12th, where the wind turns cross-off and the conditions clean up. But the swell is still small, inconsistent, and lacks any real punch.

Moving into the second week, the swell does start to build. By the morning of Friday the 14th, we're looking at a 5ft swell from the east, with a period of 7 seconds. The combined energy hits 255, which is moderate. But the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, so the surface is going to be lumpy and bumpy. It's a powerful mess, not a clean wave. That same day, the afternoon sees a 5ft swell, but the wind is cross-off, which is better. This is the closest we get to a standout, but the quality is still poor.

Honestly, for the entire 16 days, the forecast is a hard "no." The consistent east wind is the killer. The swell is either too small or too chopped up to be any fun. This setup, with significant swell and persistent cross-shore wind on a reef break, looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. There are no good surf options on offer, and the blank run stretches the entire window. For this area, a blank run like this isn't too unusual when the trades lock in.

Rusty.

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