Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about Tocones. This is a reef break that’s consistent and exposed, so it usually picks up whatever’s out there. The water temp is sitting at 85°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Looking at the next two weeks, it’s a pretty bleak start. We’ve got a long dry spell ahead of us.

The first day with anything worth paddling out for is a full week away, but even then, it’s not great. From now until the 24th of September, it’s a write-off. Tiny swell, messy cross-shore winds, and just poor conditions day after day. The combined wave energy is weak, barely hitting triple digits, and the swell is mostly small and short-period. You’re better off doing something else.

There’s a glimmer on the 25th of September, Friday morning. The swell bumps up to 2 ft from the east, with a period of 8 seconds, and the wind turns cross-offshore from the east-southeast at 9 mph. The water cleans up nicely. Energy hits 132 (moderate). It’s not big, but it’s the first clean looking window in a long while.

But the real standout in this forecast is a few days later. Starting Sunday the 27th of September, a solid pulse of swell arrives. It’s 4 ft to 5 ft from the north-northeast, with a very long period of 13 to 14 seconds. That's proper groundswell. The combined energy jumps way up: 614 on Sunday morning, 671 by the afternoon. That’s strong. The drawback? The wind stays cross-shore from the east, so it won’t be glassy, but with that size and period, the waves will have serious shape and power. Monday the 28th holds steady at 5 ft from the northeast, 13 seconds, energy up near 790. That level of energy means the ocean is working. At 5 ft, it’s getting a bit punchy, but still doable for experienced surfers. Beginners should sit this one out.

Then Tuesday the 29th of September is the pick of the whole outlook. Swell comes in at 4 ft from the northeast, with a 12-second period, and finally the wind shifts to cross-off from the east-southeast at a light 9 mph. The morning and afternoon both show clean conditions with energy around 440 and 395. That’s the sweet spot: manageable size, long-period lines, and clean surface. This is Tocones at its best for the fortnight. Just keep in mind, the swell direction is northeast and the optimum is north, so it’s a little off-angle, but still good enough. Crowds can be a thing here – the spot is often busy, so get out early.

After that, it trails off quickly. The 30th of September drops back to 2 ft and the energy fades, though there’s a last little window Tuesday afternoon with a light cross-off breeze.

So to sum it up: bone dry till the 24th, a small clean window on the 25th, then a proper pulse from the 27th through the 29th. The best surf on offer is Tuesday the 29th of September. Go then.

Rusty.

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