Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you – this stretch is a tough one. We’ve got a long gap of pretty ordinary conditions before anything really worth paddling out for shows up. The water’s sitting at a warm 85°, which is about average for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick suit.

Alright, let’s run through it. From Monday the 14th right through to Saturday the 26th of September, it’s a real struggle at Tocones. We’ve got tiny swell, mostly 1ft to 3ft, with cross-shore winds and a fair bit of chop. The combined energy is weak, sitting well under 100 for most of that period, so there’s just no power in the water. Conditions are labelled as “poor surf conditions” for the vast majority of those days. Sunday the 20th morning is the first time we see “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions”, but with a tiny 1ft swell from ENE and a period of 8 seconds, it’s barely a ripple. The cross-off wind from ESE keeps it clean, but there’s no size to work with. That’s a one-off glimmer in a long, flat run. Honestly, for most of this first stretch, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing – you’ve got wind and chop, but no proper waves.

We finally get a bit of a pulse on Sunday the 27th of September morning. Swell bumps up to 3ft from NNE with a 10-second period, and combined energy hits 148 (moderate). That’s the first real sign of life, but the wind is cross-shore from the east at 12 mph, which messes with the face. Not a standout, but it’s the best we’ve seen in a fortnight.

Then, Tuesday the 29th of September morning is the one to circle. Swell jumps to 4ft from the east with a 6-second period, combined energy hits 182 (moderate), and we’ve got clean conditions with a cross-off wind from the east at 9 mph. This is the standout of the whole outlook. Tocones is a consistent reef break, exposed to north swells, and while this east swell isn’t bang on the optimum, the 4ft offers some proper shape. The period is short at 6 seconds, so it’ll be a bit crumbly and lacking that long-period punch, but for this area in this stretch, it’s the best on offer. Be aware that crowds are often here, so expect company. For beginners, 4ft is fine; it’s not too big. After that, the afternoon drops off to 3ft and moderate energy, so the window is the morning.

So, in short: a long dry spell from the 14th to the 26th, with only a tiny clean moment on the 20th morning. The real highlight is the morning of Tuesday the 29th of September – get on it early.

Rusty.

Read more