Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for your area, trying to find a silver lining. To be straight with you, the next week and a half looks pretty grim. There’s a solid stretch of poor conditions from now all the way through to the end of August, with only a few flickers of something interesting towards the end of the forecast period.

We’re looking at Tocones (Chile) – a consistent reef break that’s usually exposed to the north. The water’s sitting at 85°, which is about 1° warmer than normal for this time of year, so nothing too wild there.

The first real chance of anything decent pops up on Monday, 31 August, in the morning. A swell from the ENE at 5ft, with a period of 10 seconds, rolling in. The combined energy is moderate at 504. The wind is a gentle breeze from the SE, which is cross-offshore, and the forecast says “clean.” That’s the best we’ve got in the whole window, but it’s only scoring a 3 out of 10, so it’s not exactly a standout. Still, it’s the only morning where the stars align for a paddle. The crowd situation at Tocones is “often” busy, so expect company.

After that, we slide back into the doldrums. From Tuesday, 1 September right through to the morning of Wednesday, 9 September, it’s a long, boring stretch of tiny, weak swell and poor surf. The combined energy drops to double digits and even down to 28, which is basically flat. The wind stays offshore or cross-off, but the wave heights are just too small – 0.7ft to 3ft – to bother with.

Then on Wednesday, 9 September, in the afternoon, we get a bit of a pulse. A swell from the NNE at 5ft with a period of 12 seconds, combined energy of 555 (moderate), and clean cross-offshore winds from the ESE at 12 mph. That’s a longer period groundswell, which means the waves will have more push and shape, but it’s still only a 2 out of 10. It’s a one-off, and the next day, Thursday, 10 September, is similar but slightly smaller. For a break that’s a reef, that longer period stuff could be okay, but the quality scores are still “marginal.”

So, to keep it real: the only morning worth a look is Monday, 31 August. Everything else is either flat or just not coming together. The drought is real, but forecasts can change, so don’t give up hope entirely.

Rusty

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