Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a coffee, let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks. To be honest with you, it’s a bit of a tough stretch for Tocones. This is a reef break, exposed to the north, but what we’ve got coming in over the next sixteen days is mostly small, short-period windswell that just doesn’t match the direction the place wants. The water temp is sitting at 84°, which is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The first chance of anything even worth a paddle doesn’t show up until Monday, July 27th. We’ve been sitting through a long, flat, and messy run before that. From the 18th right through to the 26th, it’s a whole lot of nothing – poor surf conditions, cross-shore winds, and weak energy. The combined energy of all swells directed here is mostly in the double digits, barely cracking 100 in spots, and the swell height is hovering around 3 ft to 4 ft, but it’s all short period (6 to 8 seconds) and coming from the east or east-northeast – not the optimum north direction for this break. The wind is a constant cross or cross-off breeze, which actually cleans it up a bit on the 22nd and 23rd, but there’s just no swell to work with.

Then on Monday, July 27th, things get a little interesting. The morning shows a bit more life – combined energy jumps to 368 (moderate), with a 4 ft swell from the east and a period of 9 seconds. That’s a slightly longer period, and the wind is a light cross-off. It’s still only a marginal forecast, and the score is a very low 1 out of 10, but it’s the best we’ve seen. The afternoon drops off to a 3 ft east swell, still with clean light breeze, but the energy falls away. That’s your one brief window of hope.

The next standout, if you want to call it that, is Sunday, August 2nd. The morning session has a clean 3 ft swell from the east, with a period of just 5 seconds, and gentle cross-off wind. The combined energy is only 68 (weak), and it’s described as “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” Again, a score of 1 out of 10. That’s about as good as it gets.

Honestly, for a beginner-friendly, consistent reef, it’s a frustrating outlook. The swell direction is wrong, the periods are short, and the energy is low. There’s really no standout day here. July 27th morning is the only one that even hints at a pulse, and even then, it’s a long shot. If you’re desperate for a paddle, that’s your window, but don’t expect any magic.

Rusty.

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