Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a long, hard look at Tocones for the next sixteen days. I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough stretch. The swell is there on and off, but the wind is just making a mess of things for most of it.

We kick off Thursday the 13th with some 4-5 foot swell from the east, but that 18 mph cross-offshore wind is howling. The water’s sitting at a warm 84°, which is about normal for the time of year. The combined energy is moderate (184), but that wind is just ripping the tops off. It’s the same story into Friday and Saturday. The swell builds a touch, hitting 6 ft on Saturday morning with energy climbing to 313, but the wind stays cross and nasty. This is not a paddle surfer’s setup; with that much wind and a beach/reef setup, this is looking more like a kite session.

Sunday the 16th sees the biggest push of the whole run – 7 ft from the east with a short period of 8 seconds, and energy levels surging to 945. But the cross wind is still there, and there’s a risk of thunderstorms on top of it. For experienced surfers only, but don’t expect any kind of quality.

We then hit a real lull. From Monday the 17th all the way through the 20th, it drops right off. We’re talking 2-3 foot dribble at best, with energy levels sinking below 100. The wind does go cross-offshore, which keeps it clean, but there’s just no push. The period drops to 5 or 6 seconds, so it’s just weak, short-period windswell. A real gap of a few days with nothing to recommend.

Early in the second week, around Thursday the 21st, we get a little flicker. A 4 ft east swell with a cross-offshore wind. The energy climbs back to 164, and the wind is clean. It’s better, but still pretty weak. It’s followed by another drop into the weekend.

Now, the only real *standout* in the whole 16-day window comes on the Tuesday and Wednesday of the final week. On Tuesday the 26th of August, the morning session shows the best potential we’ve seen all forecast: a 4 ft east swell with a 8-second period and a solid 319 combined energy. The wind is a clean cross-offshore breeze at just 12 mph. This is the one. It’s still not pumping, but after two weeks of wind and chop, a clean, chest-high wave with some energy is what you’ve been waiting for. The water is still warm, and the crowds at Tocones can often be a factor, so get there early.

After that, it fades back into small, weak surf through the end of the month. The wind on the 27th and 28th goes cross, and the energy drops below 100 again. Nothing else to chase.

So there you have it. A long, frustrating run of wind and weak swell, with one bright, clean morning on the 26th to pin your hopes on. It’s been a tough one, but that’s the coast sometimes.

Rusty.

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