Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at the charts for Tocones. I’ll be straight with you – we’re in for a long, quiet stretch.

The pattern for the next 16 days is a real bummer. For the most part, the ocean is just not cooperating. We've got a solid week of almost nothing worth paddling out for. From the 27th of August right through to the start of September, it’s a write-off. The swell is tiny, under 3 ft, wind is mostly a messy cross-shore or cross-onshore, and the wave energy is weak – often under 200 (moderate energy). There's a bit of a lift on the 29th with swell height hitting 4.3 ft, but the period is a short 7 seconds and the wind is all wrong, so it's lumpy and poor. Don't bother.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Monday the 31st of August. Early morning, we see a pulse of 5.2 ft swell from the ENE, with a period of 10 seconds, pushing the combined energy up to 504 (strong wave energy). The wind switches to a clean cross-offshore from the SE. This is the first time conditions look surfable, but it’s still rated as messy and the tide might be an issue. It’s a marginal call.

After that, we drop right back down into weak, small surf for days. Swell heights stay below 3 ft, periods are short, energy is low (under 100). It’s not until Sunday the 6th of September that we see another pulse. That afternoon brings a 3.3 ft swell from the east with a very long 13-second period, pushing the energy to 337 (moderate). The wind is clean cross-offshore. For Tocones, a reef break, that long-period groundswell could actually shape up nicely, but the size is small, and the overall confidence is low. It’s another marginal window.

A similar pattern repeats on the 11th of September, with a 3.9 ft, 11-second swell from the NNE under clean winds, but again, the surf is rated as poor or marginal. The long-period swells we are seeing late in the forecast are promising in theory for the reef, but the consistency and quality aren't there yet.

Water temps at the start are warm, around 85.1°F, about average for the time of year. Nothing unusual there.

The Best on Offer: There are no true standouts in this 16-day window. It’s a flat spell. If I had to pick the least-bad option, it’s Monday morning, the 31st of August. That’s the biggest swell of the period (5.2 ft from ENE) with clean wind. But even then, don't expect perfection.

This is a classic quiet period for the area. The pattern is stubborn, and it’s going to take a big system to shake things up. Keep an eye on the charts, but for now, the boards can stay in the car.

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