Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a honest look at what Tocones has got lined up for us over the next couple of weeks. Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this is a rough patch. There's no real surf on offer for a solid week and a half, from Wednesday the 29th of July all the way through to around Tuesday the 11th of August. That's a long, flat stretch with nothing worth paddling out for.

The problem is the wind. We're stuck with a persistent moderate breeze from the east and east-southeast, blowing cross and cross-off at 12 to 16 mph. That's just messy. The swell is tiny, ranging from a dismal 2 ft to 5 ft, but it's all short-period wind swell clocking in at a weak 6 to 8 seconds. The wave energy is laughable, barely hitting triple digits when it's "good" – we're talking a combined energy of only 86 to 238 for most of it – and often dipping into the double digits. Water temp is sitting at a warm 84°, which is about normal for the time of year, but that's not much comfort when the waves are junk. For a beginner-friendly reef break like Tocones, this is just a write-off. There's nothing to ride.

Now, if you're desperate for a shred of hope, the models are *hinting* at a pulse of energy coming in around Wednesday the 12th of August and lasting into Thursday the 13th. But this is deep in the forecast, so take it with a grain of salt. The swell bumps up to 6 ft to 6 ft from the ENE, with a period still stuck at a weak 7 seconds. The combined energy jumps to a more significant 338 and 416, so there's finally some push in the water. But here's the kicker – the wind is forecast to turn into a fresh breeze from the east at 19 mph, right on the cross. That'll turn the surface into a lumpy, chop-ridden mess. It's a classic case of "there's swell, but it's unsurfable." For a beginner reef, 6 ft is already getting too big, and with that wind it’s just ugly. Honestly, that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So, the long and short of it: there is no standout day in this 16-day window. Not even close. Don't bother waxing up for the next week and a half. The only possible activity is that mid-August bump, but with those winds, it’s a pass for me. Keep an eye on it, but don't hold your breath. Forecasts can change, and it tends not to stay this poor forever.

Rusty.

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