Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – looking at the 16-day window for Tocones, there’s nothing worth paddling out for. The whole run is a blank. The first surf recommendation doesn’t really kick in, and honestly, the forecast just looks like a long stretch of poor conditions. We’re talking about a solid gap of over two weeks where the waves just aren’t cooperating.

The core issue is that persistent cross-shore wind from the East, blowing at 15 to 19 mph, which is just tearing up the lineup. It’s a consistent breeze, but it’s the wrong direction for quality, leaving the surface messy and lumpy. Swell is tiny, mostly hovering around 3 ft to 4 ft, with a short, weak period between 5 and 7 seconds. The combined swell energy is on the low side, generally in the double digits, only occasionally hitting three-digit values like 106 or 140, but it’s still not enough to overcome the wind. The water temp is a balmy 83°, sitting right on average for the time of year, but that’s about the only nice thing I can say.

There are a few moments where the wind swings a bit more cross-offshore, like on the morning of Friday the 17th and Wednesday the 22nd, which cleans things up a touch. But the swell is still too weak and short-period to make anything of it. Later on, the 29th of July has a small, cleaner-looking pulse from the NE with a longer period of 10 seconds (129 combined energy), but it’s only 2 ft and still labeled as poor surf. This is a reef break that’s exposed to the north, and while the optimum swell direction is from the north, this tiny swell won’t do much. For a beach and reef setup like this, with all that cross-shore wind and weak swell, it honestly looks more interesting for a kite session than a paddle surf.

Don’t get too down, though. Tocones is a consistent break, so when the conditions align, it can fire. This blank run just means the weather gods aren’t playing ball right now, but forecasts can change.

Rusty, signing off.

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