Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mates, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for getting a decent wave. The forecast is a long, flat spell with a whole lot of onshore wind and chop. We’re looking at a real drought, so don’t get your hopes up for any epic sessions.

The first few days, starting Monday the 10th, are a total bust. We've got wind straight out of the east at 16 mph, making for messy, cross-shore conditions. The swell is small, around 3ft to 4ft, with a short period of 6 seconds, so it's just weak and junky. The energy is weak to moderate, with values in the 80s and 90s. Water temp is sitting at 84°, which is about normal for this time of year. It's not going to be pretty.

We stay in this poor state through Wednesday the 12th. The wind backs off to a cross-offshore direction, which cleans things up a little, but the swell is still tiny and weak. It's the kind of surf that will have you staring at the horizon, wondering if that bump is a wave or just a ripple.

Thursday the 13th shows a bit of a pulse, with the swell picking up to 4ft in the morning and 5ft by the afternoon. The energy climbs into the low 200s, so there's a bit more push, but it's still short-period, wind-swell junk. It’s a bigger, messier version of nothing.

By Friday the 14th, the wind really starts to howl out of the east at 22 mph. The swell is up to 7ft, and the energy is strong at 465, but it's lumpy, cross-shore slop. This is not surf for a normal board; it's a washing machine. This kind of easterly wind and solid, short-period swell at Tocones (Pinar del Río) is going to be a mess. Honestly, for a beach and reef setup like this, it looks a lot more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The conditions stay rough and uninviting through the weekend, with the swell slowly fading from 6ft down to 4ft.

Now, there is a glimmer of hope on Monday the 17th. The wind drops to a gentle 9 mph from the northeast, and the swell period jumps to 12 seconds. That's a proper groundswell, and the energy is strong at 682. The wave height is a solid 5ft. This is the standout of the whole period. The longer period will mean more powerful, better-shaped waves, and the lighter wind will make it much cleaner. It’s a real chance for a wave, though it's a bit of a tease since it's a week out. The only downer is the cross-onshore wind, but it's gentle, so we might get away with it. This is the one to watch for.

After that one good day, it’s back to the grind. The swell drops back down, the period shortens, and we're left with small, weak, and messy conditions for the rest of the week. The wind stays onshore or cross-shore, and the energy fades away. The final days of the window, from the 22nd onward, are just tiny leftovers, with the swell dropping to under 3ft and the energy dipping into the weak category. It's a flat, dismal end to the outlook.

So, to wrap it up: don't bother before Monday the 17th. That's the one day with any real promise. It's a long-range call, so treat it with caution, but if the wind plays ball, it could be the only session worth having. After that, it's a whole lot of nothing. Hang tight, and keep an eye on that forecast.

Rusty.

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