Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s happening at Tocones over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – it’s looking pretty flat and disappointing for a long stretch here. We’ve got a gap of nearly nine days with no surf worth mentioning. The first real glimpse of anything rideable doesn’t show up until Friday the 25th of September, and even then, it’s barely a whisper.

From Wednesday the 16th right through to the end of Thursday the 24th, it’s all poor surf conditions with tiny swell. You’re looking at mostly 1 to 2 ft of weak, short-period windswell coming from the east or northeast, with combined energy readings mostly below 100 (like 56, 72, 76). The wind is a persistent cross or cross-offshore breeze from the east and southeast, around 12 to 16 mph, which keeps things clean at times, but there’s just no power behind the waves. The water temperature is sitting at 85°, which is about normal for the time of year – nothing weird there.

Finally, on Friday morning the 25th of September, things perk up just a touch. We get a little 2 ft swell from the ENE with a period of 8 seconds, combined energy of 117 (moderate). The wind goes light and cross-offshore from the ESE at 6 mph, making for clean conditions. It’s surfable but very ordinary – honestly, more of a longboard or foiling wave than anything with punch. That little blip fades again by the afternoon.

Now, the real interesting part is later on. Starting Saturday the 27th of September, we see a more meaningful swell pulse arrive from the NNE. The period jumps to 13 seconds (groundswell), and the swell height nudges up to 3 ft with combined energy hitting 283 (moderate to strong). That’s the best looking window in the entire forecast. The problem? The wind stays cross-shore from the east at 12 mph, which will put a bit of texture on the face. At a exposed reef break like Tocones, that long-period NNE groundswell should wrap in nicely and offer some proper shape, but it might break a bit fast and straight for some tastes. This lasts into Monday the 28th with similar 3 ft, 12-second swell and energy around 189. It’s not huge, but it’s the standout of the whole run. The water’s still warm, and the crowds can be *often* here, so don’t expect to have it to yourself.

To be honest, there’s no real standout day that screams epic. The most promise is Saturday the 27th and Sunday the 28th of September – those are your best bets for a decent session, especially if you’re keen on a longer-period groundswell at a reef break. Everything else is tiny or flat. If you’re a beginner, that 3 ft stuff is fine, but don’t expect any waves over 5 ft.

Keep an eye on the forecasts – it’s a long way out, and things can change.

Rusty.

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