Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks. Rusty here. Let’s be real – this is a rough stretch for surf. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak, with a lot of small, choppy slop and not a single "good surf" day in the mix. The first few days are a total washout with a steady east wind, and even when the wind cleans up later, the swell is just too weak to get excited about.

We start on Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th with tiny, short-period windswell from the east. We’re looking at waves around 3ft, with a period of just 6 seconds. The wind is a moderate to fresh breeze at 15-18 mph, coming straight across the swell, putting a nasty cross-chop on the surface. The combined energy is weak, hovering around 66 to 130. It’s a mess. Nothing to call home about.

Sunday the 19th through Monday the 20th is more of the same. The swell bumps up a little to about 4ft, but it’s still a short, 6-7 second period, and the wind stays cross-shore. The energy gets into the moderate range (up to 155), but the quality is still poor. Water temp at the start is a warm 83°F, which is about average for this time of year, but you won’t be feeling it through the chop.

Tuesday the 21st the wind eases off, but the swell drops back to 3ft. The energy drops with it. Finally, on Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd, the wind shifts to a cross-offshore direction from the ESE. The conditions clean up nicely, but the swell is still tiny, around 3ft to 4ft, with a period of 6-8 seconds. The energy is moderate (up to 131), but the waves are just too small for a proper ride. It’s clean, but flat.

Friday the 24th through Sunday the 27th, the cross-shore wind is back. The swell picks up a bit, with periods hitting 8 seconds on the 24th, and some decent energy shows up. The 24th morning has a combined energy of 242, which is moderate, but the swell is 4ft from the ENE with a 6-8 second period. It’s a tease. The 27th offers another clean window with cross-offshore winds and a 9-second period, but the swell is just 3ft. Clean, but not worth the paddle.

The last few days, from the 28th of July through the 1st of August, we see a few more clean windows with cross-offshore winds, and the swell starts to build. The 29th of July shows a swell of 5ft from the east with a 7-second period and a combined energy of 223. That’s the biggest swell of the period, but the period is still short, and the wind is cross-offshore. The 30th of July has energy jumping to 390, but it’s back to a lumpy cross-shore wind. The 31st of July shows a clean 4ft from the east with an 8-second period and energy of 280. There’s a pulse of energy, but the wind and swell direction just aren’t lining up.

For the standout, I’d have to point to the morning of the 29th of July. The swell is the biggest we’ll see, 5ft from the east, and the wind is cross-offshore from the ESE, keeping the surface clean. The energy is moderate (223). It’s not a classic, but it’s the best of a bad lot. The water is warm, but the surf is just not cooperating. We’re going through a flat spell, and it’s normal for this area when the wind is stuck on the wrong angle. Don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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