Tocones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's cut through it.

First up, straight off the bat, I gotta be honest with you: this 16-day window for Tocones is a tough one. The forecast is looking pretty bleak overall. We’ve got consistent easterly winds blowing across the break, and the wave energy just isn't there to make it worthwhile for most of the period.

You're looking at a long stretch of poor conditions starting now and running deep into the month. From Friday the 7th right through to Sunday the 16th of August, it’s a total write-off. The combined swell energy is weak, mostly between 55 and 196 (combined energy), and those easterly winds are cross-shore, creating a lumpy, messy surface at this exposed reef. The swell is tiny, between 2 ft and 4 ft, with a short, weak period of 5 to 8 seconds. There's nothing to get excited about.

Now, there is a little blip on the radar around Monday the 17th of August. The swell bumps up to around 7 ft from the east-northeast (combined energy hitting 653). That's a moderate energy pulse, but the wind is still cross-shore out of the east at 15 mph, which is going to chop it up. The wave comment calls it "marginal," and with that size and wind, this is really only for experienced surfers. For most of us, it’s not going to be worth the paddle.

After that pulse, it drops right back down to nothing again. We’re looking at tiny 2 ft to 4 ft swell from the 18th to the 22nd, with the energy dropping back into the double digits (48 to 237). The wind does turn cross-offshore at times, so the surface will be clean, but without any real swell to push through, it’s just flat and glassy.

For a spot like Tocones, which is a consistent reef break, this kind of blank run is not the norm, but it can happen. If you absolutely have to get wet, the cleanest conditions will be on the mornings of the 21st and 22nd, but you'll be scratching for waist-high waves at best. Honestly, with the persistent cross-shore winds and weak swell, this setup looks more interesting for a kite session than a paddle surf. Keep an eye on the charts because this kind of spell doesn't usually last forever.

Rusty.

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