Coffee Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for the Coffee Break region over the next couple of weeks.

Alright, straight up, I gotta be honest with you – this outlook is a tough one. The whole 16-day stretch is a bit of a write-off for a quality surf. The wind is stubbornly coming from the east and east-northeast, keeping a cross-shore breeze on the reef all the way through. That means the surface is going to be choppy and lumpy more often than not. We’re looking at a long, flat run with nothing that really screams "paddle out now." The combined swell energy is mostly in the low to moderate range, hitting values like 156 (moderate) early on, but it's all paired with messy conditions.

Starting off on Thursday, July 23, we’ve got a 4ft swell from the ENE with a short, weak 7-second period. The water temp is 83°, which is bang on average for this time of year. But that east wind at 12 mph is putting a cross-chop on it. It’s just not clean. This same pattern locks in for Friday, July 24, and Saturday, July 25. Swell height bumps up to 5ft on Saturday afternoon, but the period drops to a terrible 5 seconds and the wind stiffens to 19 mph from the ENE. The energy jumps to 181 (moderate) on Saturday morning, but with that wind, it’s just a lumpy mess.

Sunday, July 26, sees the swell period stretch to 8 seconds, and the energy climbs to 256 (moderate) by the afternoon, but again, that east breeze at 16 mph is a spoiler. The whole first week is a write-off. We get a small break in the wind on Monday the 27th morning, with a light 9 mph breeze, but the swell is only 4ft. It’s a "gentle cross-shore," which is better, but still not clean glassy conditions.

Look, the only highlight I can try to find is for Wednesday, July 30 afternoon. The swell jumps to 6ft from the east with an 8-second period, and the energy hits 346 (moderate). But even then, the wind is still a cross-shore from the east at 16 mph. For a reef break like Coffee Break, that’s going to fold the waves over a bit. The swell direction is coming from the east, but the guide says this spot loves a swell from the NNE, so the angle is off, too.

The second week into early August is more of the same. Swell hangs around 3ft to 5ft, period stays short, and the wind never lets up. There are a couple of mornings with gentler breezes (like August 2 and 3), but the swell is weak at 4ft and 5ft. By August 6 and 7, the swell drops right off to 3ft and energy values dip below 100 (weak) – like 72 and 75. That’s just flat, bumpy water.

For this stretch, if you’re desperate, the best window is probably the afternoons of July 30 and 31, or August 1, where the swell is 5ft to 6ft and the energy is moderate to solid (331 to 346). But don’t expect anything clean. The wind is always cross or cross-onshore. Honestly, with that persistent cross-shore wind and moderate swell, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. There are no true standouts. The consistent nature of the break doesn’t help when the conditions are against it.

Rusty.

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