Carola Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at the next 16 days for Carola. We’ve got a real dry spell kicking things off, and honestly, there’s no surf worth paddling out for in the first week and a half. The forecast is littered with “poor surf conditions” and zeros across the board. A few tiny pulses of swell show up, but they’re all under 2 ft, which is barely a ripple. The wave energy is weak, barely cracking 37 (combined energy) at its best, and that’s not enough to get excited about. The wind stays mostly cross-off and clean, which is a tease – the conditions would be beautiful, but there’s just nothing to ride.

The water’s sitting at 79° on the 21st, which is a whopping 9° warmer than the long-term average – that’s very unusual, like stepping into a bath. But it doesn’t matter when the swell is flat.

The first real offering comes in the second week. On the morning of 31 July, we see a tiny bump of 1 ft from the NW with a period of 11 seconds – that’s a long-period groundswell, which usually means better shape and more energy, but at this size, it’s barely a knee-high dribble. It’s clean, with a gentle cross-off breeze, but there’s no punch. Same story rolls into 2 August and 3 August, with a few 1 ft NW swells and a period of 12 seconds, giving a combined energy of 37 – still weak, but the best of the bunch. Carola is a reef break, exposed to the north, so this NW swell is on the money direction-wise. The wave quality would be clean, but the size is tiny. For a spot that’s fairly consistent, this is a quiet stretch.

The standout, if you can call it that, is the morning of 2 August – that 1 ft NW swell with a 12-second period and a clean cross-off wind. It’s the highest energy of the whole period (37) and the only time the swell breaks the 1 ft mark. The water temperature anomaly will be long gone by then, but it’s all we’ve got. Crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so you might have the place to yourself. For beginners, it’s fine – it’s small, but not too big. For experts, it’s a snooze.

Overall, this is a real blank run. The first 10 days are a total write-off. The second week offers a few whisper-thin pulses, but nothing to set an alarm for. Forecasts can change, but as it stands, the only company you’ll have is the seabirds. Hang in there.

Rusty.

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