Carola Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Carola over the next couple weeks.

First off, I gotta be straight with you – the outlook for Carola is pretty grim for a long stretch. The water’s sitting at a toasty 79°, which is way above average for this time of year, so you can leave the steamer at home, but the surf just isn’t cooperating. For the first solid week, from Sunday the 19th through to Thursday the 30th, it’s a real mixed bag of tiny, weak waves and flat spells. The combined energy is mostly non-existent or pitifully low, never cracking triple digits (mostly between 5 and 56). We’re talking knee-high scraps at best, with a persistent cross-shore wind that’s messing with what little shape there is. There are a few mornings where the wind goes cross-off and the water looks clean, but there’s just no push behind the swell. It’s not worth paddling out for.

We finally see a glimmer of hope toward the end of the month. On Thursday, the 30th, we get some tiny 1ft waves from the northwest, but the period is a solid 11 seconds. The energy is still weak (30), and it’s glassy clean with those light offshore winds. For a spot that’s been dead, that’s a welcome sight, but it’s still not enough to get excited about.

The real standout – and I mean the *only* real highlight in this entire stretch – looks to be on Friday, the 31st of July, and into Saturday, the 1st of August. We get a little bump in period, hitting 12 to 13 seconds from the northwest, with the combined energy finally climbing into the mid-50s (54 to 57). The swell stays around 1ft, so nothing wild, but the wind goes clean offshore on Friday morning and Saturday morning, giving us glassy conditions on the reef. The swell direction (NW) is actually the optimum for Carola, which is a reef break that needs that northerly groundswell to work. With that longer period, the waves will have some shape, and those longer gaps between sets will help with the paddle out. It’s not a day to call in sick for, but for the advanced crew, it’s the best we’ve seen in weeks.

After that, Sunday the 2nd of August has a similar 1ft pulse from the NW with moderate energy (53), but the wind swings cross-off again in the afternoon. Then it looks like we flatline into Monday. So, if you’re hanging for a wave, aim for that last Friday and Saturday of July, or Sunday the 2nd of August. The rest? Do yourself a favour and find something else to do.

Rusty.

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