Carola Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let me tell you straight up, we’ve got a real flat spell on our hands for the next 16 days. There’s no getting around it – the surf is pretty much non-existent.

Let’s have a look at what we’re dealing with. The only real spot on the radar is Carola, a reef break that needs a north swell to work. Right now, the water's sitting at a warm 79°, which is *much warmer than normal* for this time of year – that’s a bit of a weird one, like the ocean forgot the season.

We start off on Tuesday, 21 July, with a tiny 1.0ft of north swell, but it’s a short 8-second period, and the wind is a cross-off 12 mph from the SSE. The combined energy is a pathetic 12, so we’re talking weak, weak surf. It’s clean, but there’s just no rideable wave. That sets the tone for the whole outlook.

The rest of the first week is a write-off. Wednesday, 22 July, we see a 1ft NNE swell in the morning, but it’s crossed up with the wind – choppy and messy. Then Thursday through Saturday, the swell disappears completely, with zero wave energy reported. We’re looking at a solid 4-day gap with absolutely nothing to surf.

On Sunday, 26 July, and Monday, 27 July, we get a flicker of hope. A tiny 0.7ft swell from the NNW with a very long 14-second period rolls in on Saturday afternoon, and then again on Monday. The energy is still weak (21 and 17), but the wind is clean, cross-off. This is a long-period groundswell, which at a reef break like Carola might actually peel, but it’s just so small it’s barely a ripple. If you’re desperate, you might get a knee-high wave, but don’t hold your breath.

The rest of the run into the first week of August is more of the same. We get a few 0.3ft to 0.7ft pulses from the north and northwest, but the period is all over the place – sometimes short, sometimes a bit longer. The combined energy never gets above 10. The wind stays mostly cross-off and clean, but honestly, it’s just not enough to push a wave.

So, what’s the best on offer? There isn’t a standout. If I had to pick the least-worst moment, it’d be Saturday, 25 July, in the afternoon, or Monday, 27 July, in the afternoon. Those have the longest period (14 and 13 seconds) and clean conditions. But it’s a massive stretch to call it surfable. For a place like this, a blank run is pretty normal. The forecasts can change, but as it stands, we’re looking at a long, flat spell.

Rusty, signing off.

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