Cap de la Chevre Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Cap de la Chevre over the next couple of weeks.

First off, I gotta be straight with you – the surf forecast for the next 16 days is a tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf conditions, with the first real glimmer of anything rideable not showing up until the 20th of August. That’s over a week of waiting. The water is sittin' at a warm 67°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only nice thing I can say about the early part of the outlook.

The first week is a mess. From Saturday the 8th right through to the 19th, we’ve got a constant run of small, weak swell. On the 10th and 11th, the combined energy is barely a whisper, with values like 56 to 105 (weak). The winds are mostly cross or cross-on, and the few moments of cleaner cross-off wind are wasted on tiny, gutless waves. There’s a bump on the 13th of August Thursday morning, with a 4ft swell from the west at 11 seconds, and the energy jumps to 345 (moderate), but the wind is a moderate cross-shore, and the forecast still calls it poor. It’s just not worth paddling out for.

The best of the whole run, and the only thing I’d call a true standout, is shaping up for Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st of August. On Thursday the 20th, the swell picks up significantly. The morning sees a 8ft west-northwest swell with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive 912 (strong). That’s a lot of water moving. The wind is onshore from the west-southwest at 12 mph, which is a bit lumpy, but the afternoon holds a 8ft swell with a 10-second period and an energy reading of 1124 (very strong). This is expert territory – over 8ft is for the big dogs only. The direction is west-northwest, which is a touch off the optimum west-southwest for this point break, but when there’s that much energy, it’ll still wrap in.

Then Friday the 21st of August morning is the pick of the lot. The swell drops a bit to 6ft from the west-northwest, still a solid 10-second period, with a combined energy of 644 (moderate to strong). The wind is light from the north at 6 mph, making for a light cross-shore with only small ripples. That’s the cleanest window we get. The break is a point, so that long period groundswell should set up well, but for a beach break it might be a bit too straight. This is a real expert spot anyway, so that’s fine.

After that, it all fades away again. The 22nd and 23rd of August drop back to tiny, weak swell with nothing to write home about. Bottom line: if you’re an expert and you can wait, the 21st of August Friday morning is your best chance. The 20th is big and messy, but a challenge for the brave. For the rest of us, it’s a blank run. The break is inconsistent at the best of times, and this stretch is a reminder of that.

Rusty.

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