Bud Bud Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this is a pretty flat and drawn-out stretch for Bud Bud, and there’s a lot of waiting before anything remotely worth paddling out for shows up. The first real surfable window doesn’t even open until the Friday morning of the 18th, and even then, it’s a small, clean but weak pulse. We’re looking at a run of poor, ordinary, or just plain tiny waves for a good week before things get interesting.

Right now, from the 16th through the 17th, it’s a write-off. Light cross-shore winds, choppy afternoon conditions, and swell heights barely reaching 1.2m, but it’s all jumbled. The energy is weak to moderate at best—119 and 182 in the combined swell reading—so don’t bother. The water is sitting at 21°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least it’s pleasant out there if you’re just floating around.

Friday the 18th, the morning is the first hint of life. Clean conditions, a 0.6m west swell with a long 16-second period, and light cross-offshore winds. The energy jumps to 271, which is still weak, but it’s clean. The long period means it’s more groundswell, and Bud Bud is exposed, so it might have a bit of push, but it’s not going to be anything special. The afternoon turns to junk with onshore winds and a 1.5m bump—that’s when it gets messy.

The weekend and early next week—19th through 22nd—are mostly tiny. Saturday the 19th morning is glassy with a 0.8m swell at 12 seconds, but the energy is weak (190). Sunday the 20th has clean offshore mornings but only 0.6m. Monday the 21st is similar—clean offshore but tiny. The 22nd is even smaller, 0.4m, with fresh offshore winds that just make it look clean but there’s nothing to ride. Energy readings drop to 43–95, so it’s a complete flat spell.

Then comes the standout, and it’s a big one, but it’s a double-edged sword. On Wednesday the 30th of September, both morning and afternoon, we get a serious WSW swell at 3.0m with an 11-second period, and the combined energy is huge—2192 in the morning and 2161 in the afternoon. Offshore NE winds are fresh and clean, tide is favorable—but here’s the catch: this break can’t handle it. The forecast literally says it’s too big for Bud Bud. That’s expert territory only, and even then, at 3.0m at this exposed spot, it’s going to be wild and probably closing out or just dumping. For most of us, that’s a “watch from the sand” day. The morning of the 1st of October drops to 1.7m from the WSW, but it’s marginal and a step down.

If you’re not an expert, there’s nothing here for you in the next two weeks, not really. The energy is weak for most of the run, and even the big pulse is too much for the spot. Honestly, for the majority of this period, the setup at this exposed beach looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, especially when the winds are strong and offshore, but the swell is flat or oversized.

Stay patient, keep the board waxed, but don’t hold your breath until that last swell, and even then, only the heavies should go near it.

Rusty.

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