Aviones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and here’s the outlook for Aviones. It’s been a bit flat and messy recently, but let’s wind through the next couple of weeks and see if there’s anything worth paddling out for.

Right now, through Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th, we’ve got some small, weak swell at around 2ft to 3ft, mostly from the east with a short period of just 5 seconds – that’s really choppy, windblown stuff. The wind is howling cross-shore at 12-16 mph, with a cross-chop on the surface. Water temp is 83°, which is spot on average for this time of year. The combined energy is low (49-67), and honestly, it’s just not worth getting wet.

Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th stay in the same boat: swell lifts a tiny bit to 3ft, period still around 6 seconds, and still mostly east, but wind stays cross or cross-off. The combined energy creeps up a bit (76-97), but it’s still poor surf conditions across the board. A few clean windows show up Friday morning, but the waves just don’t have any grunt.

Sunday the 19th through Monday the 20th see the swell nudging up a notch – 4ft to 4ft, from the east-northeast, period at 6-7 seconds. The combined energy finally gets into moderate territory (128-151), but we’re still dealing with cross-shore winds around 16 mph, so it stays lumpy. A couple of afternoon windows look clean, but it’s not enough to get excited about. Still marked as poor surf conditions every session.

Then Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd drop back a bit: smaller swell, less energy (67-80), and the same old story. A clean cross-off window on Wednesday afternoon with a 7-second period is about the best of a bad bunch, but it’s still only 3ft and weak.

Now, into the second week, we start seeing a pulse. Thursday the 23rd brings the first real change: swell hits 4ft from the east-northeast, period stretches to 8 seconds – that’s a bit more grunt – and the combined energy jumps to 159. The morning has a clean, cross-off breeze. But it’s still flat out marked as poor surf conditions, and wind picks back up to cross-shore in the afternoon.

From Friday the 24th through Sunday the 26th, swell hangs around 3ft-4ft, mostly east-northeast, with period around 6-7 seconds. The combined energy fluctuates between 104 and 176, but there’s a lot of fresh breeze and lumpy conditions, especially on Saturday the 25th. Some risk of thunderstorms popping up too. No real standout here – still poor.

Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th settle down a bit: swell around 3ft-4ft, east-northeast, period 6-8 seconds. Combined energy moves between 94 and 144. Again, it’s clean in the mornings at times, but cross-shore wind messes up the afternoon sessions. Still, the wave comment says poor surf conditions all the way.

Finally, Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th bring the biggest energy of the whole window: combined energy hits 254 on Wednesday afternoon and 246 on Thursday morning, with swell at 4ft-4ft from the east, period 7 seconds. That’s moderate to strong energy, and morning winds are manageable at 16 mph cross-shore. But even on these days, it’s labeled poor surf conditions. The wind is never fully offshore, and the short period keeps things weak and choppy.

The honest truth? There’s no standout window here. The swell direction – east to east-northeast – does match Aviones’ optimum (north), but it’s not a clean fit. Despite being very consistent and a reef setup, the cross-shore wind and short-period swell make for poor quality all 16 days. For beginners, the swell never gets above 5ft, so it’s not dangerous, but it’s just not fun. If you’re a kite surfer, those cross-shore winds and moderate energy might be interesting, but for a paddle surfer, you’re better off waiting for a better forecast.

Rusty.

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