Aviones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ over the next couple weeks.

Straight up, I gotta be honest with you – it’s a flat, quiet stretch ahead. We’ve got a good 16-day window, but there’s not a single session that’s gonna get the blood pumping. The first real chance to even wet a line comes on Sunday morning, July 12th, and from there it’s a long, frustrating grind.

The whole period is stuck with a persistent east-northeasterly breeze, mostly cross-shore, which is just slapping a chop on top of an already weak, short-period swell. The wave energy is weak, barely cracking triple digits until late in the run. For the first week and a half, the combined swell energy is mostly in the 60s and 80s range, with a few brief blips up to 165 (moderate energy) around the 20th of July. The swell height hangs around 0.9m to 1.4m (that's 3 to 5 feet), but with a period of only 5 to 7 seconds, that’s just wind slop. No power, no push, just bumpy little lines that close out fast.

Aviones is the only break on the menu. It’s a reef setup, but with this wind direction it’s just not lining up. The optimum swell direction for Aviones is from the north, but we’re stuck with east and east-northeast swell all the way through. That’s a fundamental mismatch. The water is a warm 84°F with a water temperature anomaly of 0.9°F above average, which is about average for the time of year, so at least you won't be cold while you’re sitting there frustrated.

There is a slight shift around Tuesday, July 14th, where the wind leans cross-offshore and the conditions clean up, but the swell is still weak and wrong-direction. The best looking conditions on paper are the mornings of July 19th and 22nd, with that cleaner cross-off wind, but the swell is still a mess. By July 23rd, it drops to a tiny 0.6m (2 feet) with a 5-second period – barely a ripple.

Right at the very end, on Monday morning, July 27th, we see a bit of a pulse with a period jumping to 10 seconds, which is a better sign, and combined energy up to 132 (moderate energy). But again, the swell direction is still east, and the wind is cross-off, making for clean but tiny lines.

Honestly, for this whole stretch, the setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. The cross-shore wind and small, choppy waves are just not gonna give you a quality surf.

Keep your eyes on the charts, boys. It tends not to stay this poor forever. Stay patient.

Rusty.

Read more