Waimarama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks for our stretch of coast.

The overall pattern is a classic winter mix for us. We’ve got a decent run of southerly energy pushing through for the first week, with the potential for some proper size, but the winds and conditions are going to be the deciding factor. The water is sitting at just under 55°F, which is about 2°F colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want the hood and booties.

The weekend opens up with a building swell. Saturday morning you’ll see waves around 8ft from the south, but a fresh 19 mph offshore wind will have things a bit lumpy and the forecast talks about questionable tides. It’s surfable, but not the pick of the week. The afternoon sees the swell nudge up to 8ft, still with a fresh breeze.

Sunday the 2nd is where things start to clean up. A light breeze and 7ft of south swell with a longer 12-second period will have some proper lines wrapping in. The energy is moderate at 1614, and it cleans up further in the afternoon as the swell backs down slightly to 6ft. This is looking like the most user-friendly day of the opening stretch.

Monday the 3rd eases off, with the swell dropping to 5ft. It’s clean with light winds, but the energy is fading. Then we get a big pulse.

Tuesday the 4th is a story of two halves. The morning brings a building 10ft swell with a fresh cross-off breeze, which is already pushing limits. But the afternoon is where it gets serious. The model is calling for a massive 20ft south swell with a 15-second period and a fresh offshore wind. The combined energy reading is a whopping 21982 – that’s very strong energy. The comment even says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. You'd be looking at a washing machine out there, unless you're a serious charger. This one is for experts only, and even then, you're on your own.

Wednesday the 5th the ocean will still be angry. We’re looking at 10ft of south swell in the morning, dropping to 8ft by the afternoon, with moderate offshore winds. It’s an excellent forecast for experienced surfers, but it’s still a solid step up from the weekend. The energy is still strong at 2800. This is a real grinder.

Thursday the 6th sees the swell drop back to a more manageable 7ft. The morning has clean conditions with a light breeze and a south-southeast swell. The afternoon gets a bit messy as a light cross-shore breeze kicks up.

Friday the 7th is tricky. The morning has a long-period 6ft south swell (17 seconds!) and clean conditions, but the cross-shore breeze will make it feel a bit disorganized. The afternoon brings a pulse back up to 8ft, but a 9 mph onshore wind will chop it up. Not ideal.

The second week is a mixed bag. Saturday the 8th is a return to cleaner surf, with a 6ft south swell and light offshore winds in the morning. Sunday the 9th through Tuesday the 11th will see the size drop considerably, down to 3-5ft, with light winds. It’s smaller, but there are some clean windows for a log or a fish, with the Monday morning looking particularly glassy.

The standout of the whole period, though, has to be the pulse on Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th. The sheer size and power of that south swell will be something to see, and while the Tuesday afternoon is too big, the Wednesday is the one for the experienced crew. It’s a long period groundswell, which can be tricky at our beach-and-reef setup, but when it’s that big, all bets are off. The later week from the 8th and 9th has its moments for clean, smaller waves, but the real power is early doors. Just be careful out there if it’s your first time seeing that kind of size – if it's over 8ft, it's experts only.

Alright, that’s the rundown. Keep an eye on the conditions and be smart.

Rusty.

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