Waimarama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surf’s up... or it’s gonna be. Let’s get into it.

The next week and a half is a mixed bag for Waimarama (Hawke's Bay). We’ve got a slow start, a couple of proper windows, and then a monster swell that’s going to shut the place down for anyone without a big-wave gun and a death wish. The water’s sitting at 53°, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, so don’t be shy with the thick rubber.

The first real chance to get wet is Tuesday morning, the 11th. We’ve got a 6ft SSW swell with a short 8-second period, but the wind is offshore and light. It’s going to be clean, but that short period means it might be a bit soft and crumbly. The combined energy is moderate at 941. It’s surfable, for sure, but not the pick of the month.

Wednesday and Thursday are a write-off. Onshore winds and junky, weak swell. Not worth the paddle out.

Then things get interesting. Friday morning, the 14th, is looking good. The wind is glassy, and we’ve got a 8ft NE swell rolling in. The period is short at 7 seconds, but that glassy surface will make it look a million bucks. The energy is moderate at 955. This is a window for the better surfers in the water, as 8ft is pushing it for the beginners.

The weekend is a mess. Saturday has strong cross-off winds and a building, jumbled swell. Sunday is a full-on gale with 31 mph offshore winds. The size is there, 8ft, but it’s going to be a battle just to get out the back. The energy is strong at 1482, but it’s not going to be pretty. Honestly, that setup on Sunday looks more interesting for the kite crew than for us paddle surfers.

After the storm blows through, Monday the 17th is still too wild with strong cross-off breezes and a big, raw swell. We need to wait for Tuesday morning, the 18th. That’s when it cleans up. A 5ft S swell with a 10-second period, and a moderate offshore wind. It’s a solid, clean, fun-sized day. The energy is moderate at 725. This is a good one.

Now, the big one. Wednesday the 19th. The models are showing a massive 30ft SSW groundswell with a 17-second period. The combined energy is a staggering 61577. The wind is offshore and clean, but this is way, way too big for Waimarama. This is a washed-out, closed-out nightmare. Only for the most experienced and the most insane. The swell is just too big for this break.

Thursday the 20th sees it drop back to a still-serious 13ft in the morning, which is still a no-go. But the afternoon is the standout. The swell drops to a still-chunky 10ft from the S with a 13-second period, and the wind is light and cross-off. The energy is strong at 3317. This is the best on offer for the experienced crew. Expect powerful, lined-up waves. Beginners, stay well clear.

That big swell fades out through Friday the 21st, leaving a clean 6ft SSE swell. It’s good, but not amazing.

The following week, things get more uncertain. Saturday the 22nd is tiny and glassy, a fun longboard day. Sunday the 23rd has a bit more push with a 8ft S swell, but the wind is a bit questionable. The real promise is for Monday the 24th, but again, the models are showing another 12ft S swell with a 12-second period. It’s got good energy at 6140, but it’s right on the edge of being too big again. It looks promising, but it’s a long way out, so don’t book the day off work just yet. The rest of that week looks like it’s easing back into the 6ft range with clean conditions, but it’s all a bit speculative.

So, to sum it up. The standouts are Thursday afternoon the 20th for the experienced surfers, and Tuesday morning the 18th for a solid, clean session for the intermediate crowd. The 19th is a complete no-go. Stay safe out there.

Rusty

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