Waimarama Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Waimarama. Let’s be straight with you—this is a long-range view that starts off with a bit of a rough patch, but there’s a real gem waiting for us if we’re patient.

The first few days are a write-off, honestly. We’re looking at Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th with a massive, angry swell. We’re talking 16 ft on Thursday, dropping to 13 ft on Friday morning, all from the SSE and SE. That’s enough to shake your fillings loose, and with a near-gale southerly wind screaming in, it’s just not a paddle session. The combined wave energy is pumping out huge numbers (5729 and 5909 on Thursday), but it’s pure chaos. This is a beach and reef setup, and with that much power and wind, it’s honestly looking more like a kite-surfing zone than a place for a log. Water temp is sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year.

Saturday the 11th starts to settle. The swell drops to 7 ft in the morning, then 7 ft in the afternoon from the SE, with a 10-second period. Winds are backing off, but they’re still cross-off. The afternoon session shows a glimmer, with a "gentle breeze" and clean conditions. The energy is dropping (1037 and 918), but it’s still a bit sloppy for a proper standout.

Sunday the 12th morning is where it starts to get interesting. We’ve got a nice 4 ft ESE swell, a light westerly breeze that’s cross-off, and clean conditions. The energy is down to 458, which is weak to moderate, but it’s surfable and tidy. The afternoon turns glassy with a 4 ft swell and a 9-second period, but the wind swings onshore, so it’s a bit of a mixed bag.

Then we hit a flat spell. Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th are small and weak, with swell dropping to 3 ft and 3 ft. The energy is a paltry 230 and 140. There’s a glassy moment Tuesday afternoon with a tiny 3 ft ENE swell, but it’s barely a ripple. Wednesday the 15th is the same story—small, weak, and unremarkable.

Now, here’s the one you’ve been waiting for. Thursday the 16th kicks off a proper run. The morning is clean with a 3 ft ESE swell, but the period is a very long 16 seconds. That’s a groundswell, and it will be peeling nicely at this reef setup. The energy is 443, so it’s light, but the quality is there. The afternoon bumps up to 4 ft with a 15-second period, still clean. Winds are light and cross-off.

But the real standout is Friday the 17th of July. This is the one. The morning session sees a 6 ft ESE swell, with a 17-second period—that’s a very long-period groundswell. The combined energy jumps to 1835, which is strong. The wind is a light southerly, cross-off, keeping it clean. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. The waves will have serious shape and power, but the long period means the sets will be spaced out, so the paddle out is manageable. The swell direction (ESE) matches the optimum (E) closely enough for this break to fire. It’s going to be a big, clean, lined-up day.

Saturday the 18th is another cracker. Both morning and afternoon are excellent for experienced surfers. The morning is glassy with a 6 ft ESE swell (14-second period), and the afternoon is clean with a 7 ft SE swell (14-second period). Similar energy levels, around 1486 and 1459. This is a solid, powerful swell, but it’s clean and organised.

After that, the wheels fall off again. From Sunday the 19th through to Wednesday the 22nd, the wind turns onshore and messy, with strong breezes and choppy conditions. The swell is still there (5 ft to 8 ft), but the quality is poor. Thursday the 23rd is even worse, with near-gale onshore winds. Then Friday the 24th shows a massive 12 ft to 13 ft swell with strong energy (3076 and 4720), but it’s too big for this break and the wind is onshore—another kite session, not a paddle.

So, to wrap it up: The first week is a battle with a big, windy swell, followed by a flat patch. The absolute best window is Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th of July. That’s your window for a clean, powerful, long-period groundswell with light winds. It’s for experienced surfers only, but it’s a proper session. Get in the water then.

Rusty.

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