Turtles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let me give it to you straight for this stretch we’re looking at.

Alright, so we’ve got Turtles on the radar for the next two weeks-plus. It’s a reef setup, exposed to the SW, with a very consistent nature. That’s the good news. The honest truth? This is a real tough run for anything truly epic. The whole period is full of what you’d call “marginal” conditions – the swell’s often solid, but the SE wind stays cross-offshore most of the time, which isn’t quite that clean perfection you get with dead offshore or glass. For the first day or two, the water’s sitting at about 77°F, which feels a bit colder than normal for this time of year – about 4°F off the average.

Right out of the gate, on Friday morning the 11th, we’ve got a decent 6ft SW groundswell with a very long 15-second period. The combined energy is strong, around 2108 (moderate to strong). The wind is a moderate SE breeze, cross-off. It’ll be clean, but that cross-off flow isn’t perfect. The afternoon picks up a fresh breeze, and the quality dips. This is a ‘choose your session carefully’ kind of day.

Saturday the 12th morning drops slightly in size to 4ft, but the period stretches out to a massive 19 seconds. That’s a long period groundswell. Combined energy is still strong (2149). Now, that long period at a reef can be really fun, offering great shape, but it also means longer lulls between sets. The wind stays cross-off from the SE. By the afternoon, the swell jumps to 6ft with that 19-second period, and the energy skyrockets to 3405. That’s very strong. Same wind story.

Sunday the 13th morning bumps up to 8ft of SW swell at 16 seconds (3027 energy). Strong energy and solid size. But remember, with that consistent SE wind blowing at a moderate to fresh breeze, the surface texture will have that bump. 8ft is getting into expert-only territory for a reef.

From Monday the 14th through to Wednesday the 16th, the surf holds in the 5ft to 6ft range, but the winds are persistently SE and fresh. Combined energy dips a bit, but it’s a steady run of clean but not perfect surf. The “marginal” label sticks through the whole week.

The run continues right through the 17th, 18th, and into the second week. The pattern doesn’t change much – consistent SW pulses, often with long periods (15-19 seconds), but the wind always has a bit of chop to it. There are a couple of mornings on the 20th (Sunday) and 24th (Thursday) where the swell pushes 7ft to 8ft, but the wind is still cross-off.

The real standout, if I’m forced to call it, is the morning of Saturday the 26th. The swell picks up to 6ft from the SSW with a 17-second period and strong energy (2121). The wind is only a moderate SE at 12 mph. That’s the lightest wind in the whole run for a morning. You might score it cleaner and more organized than anything else on offer. It’s still cross-off, but with that lighter breeze, the surface might just smooth out for a few windows. Don’t expect perfection, but it’s the best chance in a long, average-looking block.

Given the consistent nature of the break and the constant swell, it’s not a blank run. But without a proper offshore or glassy day, this is more of a “take what you can get” outlook. The reef won’t be magical, but it will be surfable most days.

- Rusty

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