Turtles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a good hard look at what’s coming our way over the next couple of weeks.

The pattern is a bit of a slow burner. We’ve got a solid run of swell at Turtles, but for the first week, the wind is the enemy. It’s a persistent cross-off breeze that’s going to butcher the surface, even if the wave heights look tempting. You’ll see the swell energy climbing through the moderate range (864 to 1423), but the scores are telling you the same thing I am: it’s messy. For the first few days, from Thursday the 23rd through to early the following week, you’re fighting a strong breeze. It’s not a total write-off, but it’s not the kind of quality you’d paddle out of bed for.

Come Sunday the 26th, the wind eases back to a moderate breeze, and the swell ticks up to 7ft from the SE. It’s a little cleaner, but still just a marginal call. The real turning point lands on the morning of Monday the 27th. That morning, we see a 8ft SE swell with a strong energy reading of 2225. The wind is that moderate breeze, but it’s still cross-off, so it’s not glassy. That’s a big wave for a reef, and it’s gonna be a handful.

Then there’s a brief dip on the 28th afternoon, with a tiny 2ft, long-period 17-second swell from the SSW. That’s a weird one – a long period groundswell that small tends to be super inconsistent and fat at a reef unless it’s a high tide wedge. The energy drops to 663, which is weak.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. From the 30th of July through the 2nd of August, the swell direction swings more consistently from the SSW and SW. That’s the optimum direction for this spot, and we start seeing those long-period groundswells – 16 to 19 seconds. The energy readings are climbing into the strong range (1533 to 2962). The wind is still a cross-off from the SE, but it’s lighter. The morning of the 2nd of August is a standout: a 7ft SSW swell with an 18-second period, energy reading 2962, and only a light breeze. That’s a proper groundswell. For a reef, that long period will wrap in beautifully, but it can also make the paddle out a bit deceptive with the lulls.

The standout day for the experienced surfer is the morning of Sunday, the 2nd of August. You’ve got a 7ft SSW swell, a long 18-second period, and the lightest wind of the entire run. The energy is massive at 2962. It’s going to be big, powerful, and clean. That’s a day for the guys who know the reef. The water is sitting around 82°F, which is about average for July, so no surprises there.

The wind is cross-off all the way through the second week, which means the waves will be groomed, but it’s not a pure offshore. That said, for the mornings with the gentle breeze, the surface will be clean enough.

To sum it up: The first week is a grind against the wind. The second week, starting July 30th, is where the quality comes alive. The morning of Sunday, August 2nd, is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s a big, clean groundswell on a reef. If you’ve got the skill, that’s your session.

Rusty.

Read more