Turtles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it: Turtles is gonna be a frustrating stretch for the next couple of weeks. The water’s sitting at a warm 81°F – pretty much spot on for this time of year, so no surprises there. But the wind… it’s hammering out of the SE almost constantly, and while that’s technically cross-off, it’s pushing 15 to 25 mph most days. That’s a stiff breeze, and it’s gonna mess with the surface, making it bumpy and tough to get a clean ride, even when the waves look decent on paper.

The real problem is the swell energy. The combined energy (668) kicks off weak on Friday 4th, and while it builds into the moderate range (803, 1333) over the weekend, the wave comments keep calling it “marginal” – that’s the model telling us the tide or conditions are off. By Sunday 6th, the energy jumps into the strong range (1716, 1910) with swell up to 6 ft from the SSW, but that 22–25 mph SE wind is gonna chop it up. It’s the same story through to Monday 7th and Tuesday 8th – energy keeps climbing (4140 on Tuesday morning!), and the swell hits 8 ft on Tuesday afternoon, swinging more S. That’s expert territory – way too much for beginners – and with that wind, it’s going to be a battle just to get out the back.

The standout window is probably Tuesday 8th morning, despite the caveats. You’ve got a 6 ft SSW swell with a very long period of 18 seconds (groundswell), and the combined energy is a whopping 4140 – strong, powerful stuff. Turtles is a reef break, so that long-period swell should wrap in nicely and give some proper shape. But that 19 mph cross-off wind is still there, and with 8 ft on the afternoon session, it’s really only for experienced crew who know the reef. Crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so you might get a few out, but with conditions this marginal, it shouldn’t be a madhouse.

After Tuesday, things settle a bit but never get truly good. Wednesday 9th to Friday 11th sees swell dropping back to 6–6 ft, energy in the strong range (around 1862–1868), and periods still solid at 15–16 seconds. The wind stays cross-off at 12–19 mph – a touch lighter on Friday 11th morning, which is the best of that little run. But it’s still “marginal,” so don’t get your hopes up.

Then from Saturday 12th into the second week, it gets lumpy and chunky. Saturday afternoon has a 7 ft SW swell with a 19-second period – very long period – and energy at 3937. That’s a lot of water moving, but the wind is still 19 mph cross-off. Sunday 13th has 8 ft SW swell and energy in the 3600s – again, expert only, and that persistent SE wind is going to make it a messy, windy affair. The next few days (14th–17th September) hover around 6–7 ft with strong energy, but the wind never relents. It’s just the same story: waves are there, but the wind is ruining them.

The only flicker of hope comes on Friday 18th September. Morning session shows a 6 ft S swell with energy at 3293, and the wind drops to 12 mph from the SE – the lightest it’s been in the whole run. That’s still cross-off, but at 12 mph it’s a moderate breeze, and the long period (13 seconds) isn’t super long, so it should be a bit more manageable. The afternoon jumps to 7 ft from the SSW with a 17-second period, so the window is narrow. That Friday morning is probably your best bet for a half-decent paddle. But it’s a long way out – nine days – so don’t book the week off just yet.

Honestly, if you’re a kitesurfer, the setup looks more interesting than paddle surfing for most of this period. The strong, consistent cross-off wind and decent swell would give you some solid rides. For the rest of us, it’s a case of watching the forecasts and hoping the wind eases up. It tends not to stay this windy forever.

Rusty.

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