Turtles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into this one.

The overall picture is a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a solid run of SW groundswell on the cards, but the wind is the real story here and it’s not a great one. It’s gonna be a persistent cross-off breeze from the SE for the entire forecast period, which means the conditions are going to be a constant battle. There’s no standout glassy day early on. The best surf will be a trade-off between the building swell and the relentless wind.

We kick things off on Wednesday, 26th August, with a clean but marginal 4ft SSW swell (13-second period) at Turtles. The water temperature is sitting at 82°, which is pretty normal for this time of year. The wind is a moderate 12 mph cross-off, which is okay but not perfect. The real energy starts to ramp up on Thursday, 27th. The swell jumps to 5ft from the SW with a very long 19-second period, packing a strong 2362 energy. By the afternoon, it’s pushing 8ft with a 18-second period and a massive 3397 energy. This is proper groundswell. The caveat is that the wind is a fresh 19-25 mph cross-off. It’s clean, but that wind is going to make it a bumpy, choppy ride. This is waves for the experienced crew only. The swell stays big and powerful through the weekend, with chest to head-high sets, but the wind stays a constant factor.

The standout moment in this whole forecast happens on Sunday morning, 30th August. The swell drops slightly to 5ft from the SSW, with a nice 13-second period. The wind eases back to a moderate 16 mph cross-off. It’s the most manageable the wind is going to be, and the energy (1407) is still decent. This is the best window for a paddle. The wave quality is still going to be a bit rough, but it’s the most likely to give you a workable wave.

After that, the swell continues to pulse through the first week of September with 6ft to 8ft sets, but the wind remains a fresh 16-22 mph cross-off. The biggest issue is that the wind is too strong for the wave quality to be good. The setup is a reef, so the long period groundswell will wrap in nicely, but the cross-off wind is going to put a lot of texture on the face. It’s a frustrating forecast. The energy is there, but the conditions are fighting it.

By the second week, things start to look a bit more promising, but it’s a long way out. Around Monday, 8th September, we see a return of 6ft SW swell with a very long period of 18 seconds and a solid 2089 energy. The wind is still a moderate 16 mph cross-off. This is a promising signal, but it’s a week and a half away, so take it with a grain of salt. The run continues into Wednesday, 10th September, with a consistent 5ft swell from the SW, holding a 15-second period. The wind is still a fresh 19 mph cross-off, so the same problem persists.

Honestly, with the wind howling like that day after day, this set-up looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The swell energy is there, but the wind is going to ruin the face for most of us on a surfboard. If you’re an experienced surfer who can handle a bumpy, fast, powerful wave, the early days (Thursday 27th through Sunday 30th) are your best bet. For everyone else, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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