The Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's on the menu for the 16-day outlook.

Honestly, it's a bit of a slow start. We're looking at a decent run of south swell, but the wind is just not playing ball for the first week. The Rock is a reef break, exposed to the south swell, and it's fairly consistent, but for the first few days, it's all cross-shore and cross-onshore winds with a moderate breeze, leaving a lot of chop on the surface. The water is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

The first real chance of something half-decent comes on Tuesday, July 21st. The swell is 5 ft from the south, with a long period of 15 seconds, giving it some real push. The combined energy is moderate (969). But the wind is a cross-shore 12 mph, so it's going to be a bit messy. It's a marginal call – only worth a paddle if you're desperate, but for a beginner-friendly reef, it's not the best introduction.

The rest of that week and into the next is a write-off for quality surf. The wind stays onshore or cross-shore, and the swell drops off. We're looking at a lot of days with poor conditions, and the combined energy dips into the low hundreds. Thursday, July 24th through to Tuesday, July 29th is a real flat spell with nothing to recommend.

Things start to get interesting towards the end of the month. On Thursday, July 30th, the swell picks up a bit, but it's the afternoon that catches my eye. The swell is 3 ft from the SSW, but the period jumps to 18 seconds – that's a nice, long groundswell. The combined energy bumps up to 1031, which is moderate. Still, the wind is cross-shore at 16 mph, so it's not glassy, but it's a step in the right direction and the tide might be working.

The real standout is shaping up for the beginning of August. Monday, August 4th is the day to circle on the calendar. The morning shows a solid 8 ft swell from the SSW, with a period of 18 seconds. That's a powerful, long-period groundswell. The combined energy is a whopping 3448 – that's strong wave energy. The wind is still cross-shore at 16 mph, which is a shame, but for a reef break like The Rock, that long period will wrap in nicely. The afternoon looks similar, with 8 ft swell and 17-second period. This is expert territory, though – over 8 ft means it's for the big dogs only. The crowds are a possibility here, but on a day like that, the lineup will thin out.

The following day, Tuesday, August 5th, is still pumping with a 6 ft SSW swell and 16-second period, but it's a step down from the Monday peak. Still a solid option for the experienced crew.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a bust. The best bet is the Monday, August 4th session at The Rock, with that big, long-period groundswell, but it's a big wave day for experts only. If you're a beginner, stay out of the water until the next forecast.

Rusty.

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