Red Strand (Dirk Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. The outlook for the next couple of weeks is pretty grim, I gotta be honest. We’ve got a run of surf that’s just not worth paddling out for, with only a few faint glimmers of hope way down the line.

The whole 16-day window is a struggle. For the first week and a half, we’re looking at tiny, weak, and often messy conditions. The water temp at Red Strand (Dirk Bay) is sitting at 64°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only good news. The swell energy is mostly low, bouncing between weak and moderate, but the wind is just never on our side.

Friday the 4th kicks off with a 1ft SSW swell but it’s a 15 second period groundswell, which is decent, but it’s wrecked by a 22 mph cross-offshore wind. The combined energy is 156 (moderate), but the conditions are just poor. It stays flat and lumpy through the weekend. Saturday the 5th is a write-off with 1ft and onshore wind. Sunday the 6th sees a bump in size to 5ft, but it’s a short-period 6 second windswell, so it’s just a sloppy mess with a 22 mph onshore wind (combined energy 188, moderate). That’s pure chop.

Monday the 7th actually has some energy with a 4ft SW swell and a 12 second period, giving a combined energy of 368 (moderate), but the wind is a strong cross-onshore, making it choppy and messy. Tuesday the 8th cleans up a bit with a cross-off wind, but the swell drops to 3ft with a short period, so it’s tiny. That pretty much sums up the rest of the first week: small, wind-affected, and not worth a second look.

We hit a real dead zone from about the 10th through to the 15th of September. The swell is tiny, often under 2ft, with weak energy. The morning of the 14th of September is glassy calm, but with a 0.3ft swell, you’d be floating, not surfing. The 15th of September Tuesday morning has a clean 1ft with a 3 mph offshore wind, but it’s just too small to get excited about.

Now, the only real standout, and I mean the only one, comes on the 16th of September Wednesday afternoon. It’s a long way off, so take it with a grain of salt, but it’s the best we’ve got. We’ll see a 4ft SW swell, moderate combined energy of 73 (weak), but the kicker is a fresh 19 mph offshore wind from the NNW. That’s going to groom it into clean, lined-up waves. The swell period is short at 5 seconds, so it won’t be a classic groundswell, but with offshore wind, that reef at Red Strand might just offer up some fun little rights. It’s not a day for beginners though, as the swell is over 5ft.

The 17th of September Thursday morning also has a clean offshore wind, but the swell is back down to 1ft. The 18th of September Friday morning is clean with a 2ft SW swell, but again, small.

Honestly, for the next 16 days, the 16th of September Wednesday afternoon is the only time I’d even consider waxing up. The rest of the time, it’s a long stretch of poor surf. It’s one of those periods where the forecasts can change, but for now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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