Noorderstrand Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and settle in, because I’ve combed through the data for Noorderstrand and, well, it’s a bit of a rough stretch ahead. I’m not going to sugarcoat it—the next couple weeks are looking pretty flat and messy for the most part. We’ve got a long stretch of poor conditions, but there is a tiny glimmer of hope if you’re patient and pick your moments.

The first real chance for anything rideable isn’t until Monday the 24th. Before that, from the 15th through the 23rd, we're looking at tiny, weak, short-period swell with almost constant cross-onshore wind, especially out of the NNW. It’s going to be choppy, lumpy, and just generally a hassle. The waves will be small, most days under 3 feet, and the energy reading is weak, mostly in double digits like 14, 47, or 68. It’s going to be a lot of paddling for nothing. The one thing I can say for that first week is that the water temp is sitting at a balmy 71°F, which is 6°F warmer than usual for this time of year. That's a big anomaly, so at least it won't be cold while you're getting skunked.

Things take a turn on Monday the 24th. The swell jumps up with a NNW pulse, pushing 7 feet with a period of 8 seconds. The energy reading jumps to 589. That’s moderate to strong energy, and it's the biggest swell of the whole window. But here's the rub: the wind is still cross-onshore from the N at 12 mph, and the comment is "poor surf conditions". So while there's size, it's going to be a bit of a messy, stormy mess.

That size holds into Tuesday the 25th with 6 feet, but the wind stays onshore or cross-shore. It’s going to be a lot of whitewater and not much form. This run of bigger swell is too much for the beginner crew – it’s over 5 feet – so if you're new, stay on the beach.

The best window in the entire 16-day period looks like Wednesday the 26th, early morning. The swell is still a respectable 4 feet from the NNW, but the key thing is the wind. We’ve got a light ENE breeze, which turns cross-offshore at this break. For the first time, the data says "clean" conditions. It's still not a perfect setup, and the period is only 7 seconds, so it's not really groundswell, but it'll be the cleanest surf we get. The energy is moderate at 135. It's not going to be a classic, but it's the one to circle if you just need to get wet.

After that, it’s a steady fade back to small and often onshore, with a few rain showers possible. The wind keeps switching around, but the size drops back under 3 feet, and the energy goes back to double digits. It’s a long, drawn-out end to the fortnight.

So, to be straight with you: there’s no standout, world-class day here. Every day is marked with a poor or very ordinary rating except for that one morning. The best bet is the early session on Wednesday the 26th. For everyone else, it might be a good time to check the kitesurfing forecasts because the mix of wind and waves will probably be more interesting for them than for us paddle surfers.

The long gap from the 15th to the 24th is a real bummer, but with this much warm water, sometimes things can change quickly. I’ll keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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