Nesika Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Nesika Beach, and I gotta be straight with you: it’s a tough stretch ahead. The first week and a half or so is looking pretty grim for a paddle. There’s a real gap from now until around the middle of next week before we start seeing any glimmer of hope.

Right off the bat, starting Thursday the 6th, we’ve got a tiny 2ft southwest swell, but it’s getting hammered by a 9 mph onshore wind from the northwest. The water is a chilly 52°F, which is a massive 5° colder than normal for this time of year – you’ll want a thick wetsuit and booties, trust me. The combined energy is weak, sitting at 155, and it’s just poor conditions. That pattern sticks around through Friday and the weekend, with onshore and cross-onshore winds building up to 19-25 mph. The swell bumps up to 5ft later on, but with short-period, wind-affected waves and that strong cross-onshore breeze, it’s a messy, lumpy mess. This setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, honestly.

The whole of the following week, from the 11th to the 17th, is more of the same: wind states are mostly "cross-on" and "fresh" to "strong," with combined energy staying in the low to moderate range (150 to 547). Even when the swell height gets to 6ft on Wednesday the 12th, the period is a short 8 seconds and the wind is a strong 25 mph cross-onshore, so it’s just a big, crumbly wall of chop. No good.

Now, finally, we get a flicker of hope. The standout moment here is the 18th of August. Tuesday morning starts with a light 3ft west-northwest swell, but it’s still a bit cross-shore. The real magic happens Tuesday afternoon: the wind drops to a glassy 3 mph from the west. The swell picks up to 4ft from the west-northwest with a moderate 13-second period, and the combined energy jumps to a strong 775. The report says "expect very good surf conditions" – and with that glassy surface, it’s going to be clean. This is your best bet.

Wednesday the 19th morning also looks promising, with a similar glassy setup, a 5ft west-northwest swell, and a 12-second period. The energy is 683, still strong. But by the afternoon, the wind swings onshore, and the quality drops off. After that, it fades back into marginal conditions through the 21st.

So, for the whole 16-day window, there’s a long, dry gap at the start. The only real standouts are Tuesday afternoon, 18th August, and Wednesday morning, 19th August, at Nesika Beach. That’s your window. It’s a long wait, but that glassy, clean west-northwest groundswell could be worth the patience. The break is fairly consistent, but it’s been a tough run, so don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

Read more