Nesika Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Well, grab a coffee and settle in, because the next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak for a proper paddle. Right off the bat, the water here is running a bit colder than usual for this time of year, about a degree off, so you’ll want the thicker suit.

We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf, starting now. The first real chance of anything remotely rideable isn’t until Wednesday afternoon, and even then it’s marginal at best. The swell’s dropped to a weak 3ft from the NW with a short 8-second period, and while the wind goes light, it’s still straight on. The combined energy is weak at (234). You’d be scratching for a dodgy one.

Then we go into a proper dead zone. Thursday through to the following Tuesday is mostly tiny, with a few pulses of long-period SW groundswell mixing in with local windswell, but the onshore flow keeps it messy. The energy stays weak to moderate, with values hovering between (152) and (320). There are a few days where the swell bumps up to 4ft – 5ft, like Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon – but it’s short-period, cross-onshore junk. Not worth suiting up for.

The wind stays stubbornly from the north, blowing 15 to 25 mph most days, keeping everything lumpy and choppy. It’s more of a kite-surfing set-up than a paddle-surfing one out at Nesika Beach.

Into the second week, there’s a bit more energy around the 13th and 14th, with combined energy reading (520) and (356), but the wind is still howling. The swell direction swings around from NW to SW and even W, but it’s all over the place in size and period.

The real tease comes on the 15th and 16th. We start seeing some proper long-period W and SW swell (17 and 16 seconds), and the energy climbs to (652) and (546). This is a sign of real groundswell, but it’s arriving with a cross-onshore wind, and it’s only pushing 2-3ft. It’ll be fat and sectiony, likely breaking too straight on the beach. Not the clean, lined-up waves we need.

The final days of the outlook, on the 18th, finally show a glimmer of hope. The wind goes light and offshore-ish (NW at 9 mph in the morning, then WNW at 6 mph), and the swell holds at a small 2-3ft with a 14-15 second period. The energy is moderate at (371) and (377). It’s still small, but clean and with some push behind it. It might just offer a couple of fun, soft waves for a longboard.

Honestly, if you’re desperate, the 18th is your best bet. It’s the only time the conditions come together to make something that isn't a complete battle. Everything else is a wash-out.

Rusty, signing off.

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