Lancelin Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Lancelin. We’ve got a solid run of pulses coming through, but boy, the wind is going to be the main character in this story for a while. The water temp is sitting at 19.6°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so nothing to worry about there.

The first real chance to get wet kicks off Thursday morning, August 6th. We’re looking at a hefty 11.5 ft swell from the WSW with a very long period of 16 seconds, packing a massive energy punch (6587). That’s a proper groundswell. Problem is, we’ve got a moderate onshore breeze from the WNW at 12 mph. It’s not going to be clean, but that swell is too big to ignore for the experienced crew. This is a reef break, so that long period will wrap in nicely, but the wind is a real buzzkill. By Thursday afternoon, the swell drops a touch to 9.8 ft, but the wind stays onshore and it’s still marginal.

Friday the 7th is a write-off, honestly. Still 11.5 ft of swell, but cross-onshore winds and rain showers make for a messy, choppy surface. The energy stays high (5168), but it’s not going to be a fun paddle. Saturday the 8th is a no-go. We’re talking 16.4 ft of swell with a howling 25 mph cross-onshore wind. That’s a beast of a wave for the reef, but the conditions are just dangerous. The energy readings are through the roof (12779 on Saturday afternoon), but it’s a full-on washing machine. For kite surfers, that setup might look interesting, but for paddling, forget it.

Sunday the 9th sees the swell back down to a more manageable 14.8 ft in the morning, but the wind is still a gentle cross-onshore. It’s still a bit lumpy, but the energy is still huge (10882). The afternoon drops to 13.1 ft with an onshore wind. Still not clean.

Monday the 10th is a total mess again. Strong winds and rain, don’t bother.

Now, Tuesday the 11th of August is the big one. The swell is predicted to be 19.7 ft from the SW with a very long period of 18 seconds. The combined energy is a staggering 22560. That is massive. The wind is a fresh cross-shore, but the model is saying the swell is too big for this break. For a reef, that much power is going to be a washing machine, and it’s likely closing out or breaking way too deep. This is strictly for the absolute experts, and even then, it’s a high-risk day. The forecast is pretty clear that the break can’t handle it.

We get a bit of a reprieve on Wednesday the 12th. The swell drops to 11.5 ft from the SW, still a long 16-second period. The wind is a light cross-onshore, so it’s not perfect, but it’s a far cry from the weekend. The energy is moderate (6481).

Now, here’s the standout. Thursday the 13th of August, morning session. We’ve got 9.8 ft of SW groundswell, period of 16 seconds, and a light cross-offshore breeze from the NE at 6 mph. The energy is still solid (5443), and the conditions are described as “clean”. This is the first real window of clean surf. The reef will handle that long period perfectly, and with the offshore wind, it’s going to be glassy and lined up. This is the pick of the run for experienced surfers.

Friday the 14th of August, morning, is another excellent option. The swell is 9.8 ft from the SW, but the wind is a clean offshore from the ENE at 12 mph. Moderate energy (4883), but clean conditions. The afternoon also looks good with a 8.2 ft WSW swell and a light cross-offshore breeze.

After that, the swell drops and the wind swings back onshore. Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th are marginal to poor with cross-onshore winds. Monday the 17th is a bit of a mixed bag with a cross-shore wind, but the swell is 11.5 ft.

There’s a bit of a gap in the quality after that, but then Wednesday the 19th of August shows promise. The swell is 13.1 ft from the WSW, period of 16 seconds, with a gentle cross-shore wind. The energy is moderate to strong (8747), and the conditions are just slightly lumpy. It’s not perfect, but it’s a big swell.

Then, the real magic for the end of the run. Thursday the 20th of August, morning. We’ve got a 11.5 ft WSW groundswell, 16-second period, and the wind is forecast to be glassy. Absolutely calm. The energy is still strong (6737), and the conditions are “exceptional” for

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