Kugenuma Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get real about the next couple of weeks here at Kugenuma Rivermouth. Honestly, I'm looking at this forecast and it's a bit of a heartbreaker. We're coming off a pretty flat spell, and the truth is, there's just nothing on the cards that's going to get the stoke levels up. We've got a good 16-day window ahead, but it's a long, lean one.

The first real chance of anything rideable, and I'm using that word loosely, is on Monday the 7th. A southerly swell pushes in, but it comes with a side of messy weather and a strong cross-onshore wind. The swell jumps up to 7ft, with a combined energy of 710. That's a moderate amount of energy, but the wind is just going to tear it to pieces. It's lumpy, it's choppy, and it's not the kind of day you'd paddle out for fun. The afternoon sees it get even bigger, with 7ft of S swell and a combined energy of 1330. That's a lot of water moving, but with a strong onshore wind, this is more of a windswell mess for the experts only, if anyone. This is the kind of setup that's more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle guys.

Things settle down a bit, but not into quality. Tuesday the 8th morning has a 3ft SSW swell, weak energy at 292, and still onshore. Not good. The real tease of the whole outlook comes Tuesday afternoon. We get a drop to 3ft from the SSE, but the wind swings around to the north at 9 mph, going offshore. The report says "expect good surf conditions," and while the score is low, that offshore wind is a major positive. The swell is short period at 8 seconds, so it won't be powerful, but it'll be clean. For a brief moment, you might find a fun little bank with a friend. This is the only whisper of a window in the whole run.

After that, it's a long, slow fade. From Wednesday the 9th all the way through to Monday the 21st, we're looking at tiny waves. Most days the swell is under 2ft, with combined energy values dropping from 470 down to single digits. The wind is predominantly offshore for much of that time, which is the only saving grace, but there's just no energy in the water to make it worthwhile. We get a couple of days of glassy conditions on the 16th, with a 0.7ft wave, but it's just flat. This is a classic blank run for this area. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 83°, but that's not going to help the waves.

So, to put it straight: there's no standout here. The best on offer is a very short window on Tuesday afternoon, the 8th, for a clean, knee-high to maybe waist-high wave if you're lucky. But it's a fleeting moment. For the rest of the 16 days, leave the board in the car and save your energy. The forecast can always change, but right now, it's a waiting game.

Rusty

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