Kugenuma Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks. To be straight with you, it’s a grim start. We’re looking at a long, dry spell with hardly a wave worth paddling for. From now until the tail end of next week, the swell is tiny and the conditions are messy. You’re looking at a solid 10 days of flat or near-flat surf. The first real chance of anything decent doesn’t show up until the weekend of the 21st, and even then, it’s a bit of a wild card.

Let’s get into it. The only break on the table is Kugenuma Rivermouth. To start, Wednesday the 16th is a write-off. We’ve got a bit of wind but only 1ft of swell from the SE. It’s a no-go. That pattern holds through Thursday and Friday – we’re talking ankle-snappers at best. The wind is offshore, but when the swell is 0.3ft, it doesn’t matter.

Then we get to Saturday the 19th. Finally, something to talk about. The swell pushes up to 5ft from the SE, with a period of 13 seconds. The combined swell energy is moderate (778). It’s a decent bump, but the forecast has it as marginal. The wind is a fresh offshore from the N, so it’ll be clean. This is surfable, but it’s not a standout. Sunday the 20th is very similar, with the swell hitting 6ft (SSE) and energy jumping to 1170, which is moderate to strong. The wind stays offshore. These two days are the best of the first week, but the call is "marginal", so manage your expectations.

Now, Monday the 21st. The swell gets to 8ft from the SSE, with a period of 12 seconds. The energy is strong, at 1558. But the wind is a near gale from the N at 31 mph. That’s going to be a battle. For anyone but experts, this is too big and too windy. It’s more of a kite-surfing setup.

After that, we’re back to tiny dribble until Tuesday the 29th. That morning, we get a 4ft swell from the SSW with a 14-second period. The combined energy is moderate (506), with a moderate offshore wind from the NE. This is the first clean, proper groundswell of the outlook. The long period (14 seconds) means better shaped waves at the river mouth, but it might make it a bit straight. It’s a promising, but less certain, option this far out.

Wednesday the 1st of October is similar, with 2ft from the SSW and glassy conditions in the afternoon. It’s small but clean.

If you’re free, the standout is Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s the most surfable window in the near-term. For the second week, keep an eye on Tuesday the 29th – that long-period SSW swell with offshore winds is the pick, but we’re a long way out. Water temperature is a touch warmer than normal at 81°.

Rusty.

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