Kugenuma Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next few days at Kugenuma are a write-off. You’re looking at tiny, weak swell and poor surf conditions for the first week. The water’s sitting at a warm 81°, about normal for the time of year, so that’s not the problem—it’s just a total lack of energy.

Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st are dead: ankle-biters under 2 ft with short period slop, and onshore winds making a mess of things. Saturday the 1st is glassy in the morning but still only 1.0 ft—barely a ripple. Sunday the 2nd morning shows a bit more life with a 1 ft SE swell and clean cross-off wind, but the combined energy is weak (69), and it’s still too ordinary to get excited about.

Monday the 3rd is where things start to shift. Offshores kick in from the NE at 15 mph, the swell jumps to 3 ft from the SE with a solid 16-second period, and combined energy climbs to moderate (438). It’s clean, but the swell’s still small. Tuesday the 4th builds further: 5 ft to 6 ft SE groundswell, period 16–17 seconds, offshore winds, and energy hitting 2126 (strong). This is where it gets interesting for intermediate and above—long-period SE swell will wrap in with shape, but at a beach/river setup like Kugenuma Rivermouth, that long period can make it break a bit straight. Still, clean and punchy.

Now, the standout window. Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th are the real deal for experienced surfers. Wednesday morning hits 10 ft from the SSE with a 17-second period, strong offshore winds, and a combined energy of 4342—very strong. The swell direction (SSE) matches the optimum S direction closely, so it’s well-aligned. This is excellent, powerful surf, but at 10 ft, it’s for experts only. Thursday the 6th pushes even bigger at 12 ft from the S, energy at 5979, with NE cross-off winds keeping it clean in the morning. That’s a heavy, raw ocean—don’t even think about it unless you’ve got serious skills. For the average surfer, the best bet is Monday the 3rd through Tuesday the 4th, where the swell is manageable and the conditions are clean.

Friday the 7th still packs a punch at 8 ft from the S, but the onshore winds in the afternoon spoil it. Saturday the 8th drops back to a very clean 4 ft SW groundswell in the morning—great for a wider range of surfers, but the energy has faded to moderate (674). After that, it’s a slow slide into doldrums. From Sunday the 9th through Thursday the 14th, the swell peters out to under 3 ft, with weak combined energy and poor quality. By the 13th, you’ve got strong 18–28 mph offshores but only 2–2 ft of swell—a classic case of all wind, no wave. That’s more kite-surfing territory than paddle.

So, the standout: Wednesday the 5th through Thursday the 6th is the big swell window for experts only. For everyone else, aim for Monday the 3rd or Tuesday the 4th. The crowd factor at Kugenuma is “often,” so expect company on those better days.

Rusty.

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