Kugenuma Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down.

For the next two weeks, there’s a lot of nothing on the menu, but there’s one real standout sitting about a week out that you need to know about. Beyond that, it’s small, weak stuff for the most part.

Right now, Kugenuma Rivermouth (Japan) is flat. I’m talking 0.3ft to 1ft at best, with a bit of longer-period energy but no size to it. The wind is offshore a lot of the time, which is nice, but there’s just nothing to ride. The swell energy is minimal – single digits to the low 20s – so it’s not even a case of trying to squeeze something out of it. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 81°, but that doesn’t change the fact you’d be floating.

We’re looking at a long dry spell from now through the 18th. Several days of nothing. If you head out, it’ll be for a paddle, not a surf.

Then on the 19th and 20th, we get a bit of life. The swell pushes up to around 4ft to 4ft from the southeast with a period stretching to 12 or 13 seconds. Energy jumps into the 400s – that’s moderate – but the wave call is still marginal. The wind is fresh offshore, so it’s clean but a bit lumpy and not really organised. Still not the day.

But the 21st is the one. That Monday morning starts at around 8ft from the SSE at 13 seconds, with energy over 2000. Then the afternoon is where it turns on: 10ft, SSE, 14 seconds, and energy almost at 3800. That’s proper, solid swell. The wind is moderate offshore out of the NNE, and the call is excellent for experienced surfers. This is big, powerful, and clean. At 10ft, this is expert-only territory. Kugenuma Rivermouth is going to have serious lines on it. This is the standout, no question.

After that, it drops off fast. The 22nd is back to 2ft, and the 23rd is a washout with a strong southwest gale – 70 km/h – and heavy rain. The 24th through the 27th are mostly poor, tiny surf in the 0.5ft to 1ft range. The 28th tries to mix in some short-period slop, but it’s not happening.

The last couple of days, the 29th and 30th, offer a little something. The 29th afternoon you’ve got about 3ft at 11 seconds from the SSE with light cross-offshore wind, and the call is good conditions. The 30th morning is similar – around 3ft, 10 seconds, light offshore, clean. These are small but clean days. Perfect for the less experienced crew. The energy is in the low 200s – moderate – but it’s not weak. It’s just clean, rideable, manageable.

So, bottom line: the 21st afternoon is the one to circle. That’s your big day. The 29th and 30th are your clean, smaller fallback. Everything else is mostly a lot of waiting and watching.

Keep an eye on that 21st – 10ft, SSE, 14 seconds, offshore. That’s the one.

Rusty.

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