Kugenuma Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a seat. This is Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Kugenuma. I’m not gonna lie, the next week and a half is a bit of a dud for us here. The setup just isn’t playing ball.

We’ve got a long stretch ahead with really nothing to write home about. From now until the end of July, it’s all tiny dribble, with wave heights barely scraping `1 ft` to `2 ft` most days. The wind is all over the place – cross-on, onshore, and even when it’s offshore, the swell is just too small or weak to do anything with. The combined energy is very weak, often single or low double digits. There are a couple of glassy moments on the morning of the 29th and 30th, but with `1 ft` (combined energy `30`) and `0.7 ft` swell (combined energy `15`), you’d be fighting for a knee-high bump. The water temp is about `81°F` which is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year, but that’s the only highlight for a while.

The first real flicker of hope shows up right at the start of August. On Monday the 3rd, we get a pulse of swell from the SE at `2 ft` but with a very long period of `16 seconds`. This is a groundswell. The energy jumps to `212`, which is moderate. The morning has a clean cross-shore wind, but the sets will be long and straight-breaking. That period is better suited to a point break, not our river mouth, so it’s not going to be proper. The afternoon gets choppy. It’s a tease.

Things get interesting from Tuesday the 4th into Wednesday the 5th. The wind swings offshore and firms up. We’re looking at a building `2 ft` to `3 ft` SE groundswell, with a period of `17 seconds` and the energy climbing into the strong zone at around `343` – `419`. The wind is moderate to fresh offshore. This is the pick of the whole run. The waves will have some push. The period is long, so be ready for defined sets. The crowd situation here is often busy, so expect company. This is the one real standout if you can get out.

Into the end of the first week of August, the swell gets bigger. By Thursday the 6th and Friday the 7th, the swell hits `3 ft` to `4 ft` with `18` and `19-second` periods. The combined energy is very strong, up to `1273`. However, the wind is a strong offshore breeze of `25-31 mph`. This is proper strong wind. It’ll keep the faces clean, but paddling out will be a battle and the strong breeze will make it hard to get into the wave. It’s rated as marginal to poor for a reason.

And then the big weekend. Saturday the 8th of August is a washout. The swell is a massive `12 ft` from the S, but it’s short period, at `10 seconds`. The combined energy is enormous at `2417`. The forecasters are telling us this is too big for the break. Do not go out. This is serious. The swell drops to `6 ft` on Saturday afternoon, but it’s messy. Sunday the 9th is back to small `1 ft` fun-sized waves with light wind. It’s ordinary.

So, to sum it up: a poor start, a flat run for the first 9 days. The only real standout to aim for is Tuesday the 4th through Wednesday the 5th. Get on the morning offshore winds for the cleanest lines. After that, ignore the giant weekend swell. Don’t bother before the 3rd. I won’t hold my breath, but that Tuesday looks like the best of a bad lot. Keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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