Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’ll level with you, it’s looking grim for Ketewel right now. This advanced reef break has the swell, but the wind is just giving it a beating. We’re locked into a pattern of cross-on and onshore breezes that are killing the shape of a consistent SSW groundswell. The ocean’s got some serious grunt – combined swell energy is often strong to very strong (like 1155, 1318, 2015) – but the surface is a mess. The water’s a warm 82°, which is about normal for this time of year.

The first decent window? It’s a long wait. From Sunday, July 5th, all the way through to Monday, July 20th, it’s a rough stretch. The swell is hanging around, mostly 4ft to 6ft from the SSW with a nice long period (14 to 19 seconds), but those long-period groundswells need clean air to really draw lines, and they’re just getting chewed up. This spot is sheltered, and while it gets swell from the S, its ideal direction is a true S, not SSW.

There are a couple of afternoons that are barely worth a mention. Monday afternoon, July 6th, sees a solid 6ft SSW swell at 16 seconds, with powerful energy (2015), but it’s still cross-on at 12 mph, so expect bumps. Friday, July 17th, is your only real hope. The swell is a clean 5ft from the SSW at 15 seconds, and the wind finally shifts “on” (offshore) from the SE at 9 mph in the afternoon. That’s your standout. The energy is solid (1225), and while this break can be inconsistent, that offshore wind on a long-period groundswell could give you some clean, rippable reef walls for the advanced crew. Expect some company though; the crowds are “sometimes” a factor.

For everything else, it’s a two-week grind of poor surf. With those cross-winds and the swell size often over 5ft, this is looking more like a kiteboarding setup than a surfing one. The near-term forecast is solid that it’ll be average; the chance on the 17th is promising but less certain being a week and a half out.

Keep your eyes on that Friday, July 17th.

- Rusty

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