Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Ketewel are a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a solid run of groundswell, but the conditions are a real tease. The waves are there, but the wind and tide are going to make you work for it. The combined swell energy is moderate to strong, hitting values like 1687 and climbing up to 5800, so there’s definitely power in the water. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We start Saturday the 5th with a clean, clear sky and a 6ft SSW swell, period 16 seconds – that’s a proper, long-period groundswell. The issue? The wind is onshore from the SE at 9 mph, so it’s a bit bumpy. The combined energy is 1687, moderate, but the wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” It’s not a write-off, but it’s not a standout. This pattern sticks around through Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th, with similar swell heights around 5ft to 7ft and the same onshore wind. It’s frustrating – there’s energy, but the quality is just okay.

Then, Tuesday the 8th, things get interesting. Swell drops a touch to 5ft, but the period jumps to 19 seconds, and the energy leaps to 2566. That’s a strong, long-period groundswell, and with a light breeze from the SE at 6 mph, the offshore wind is almost glassy. This is the best window in the first week. The rating is a 2, and the wave comment still says marginal, but that light wind and long period are a real treat for a reef break like Ketewel. Expect clean, powerful lines, but it’s an advanced wave – not for the faint-hearted.

The good energy holds through Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th, with 8ft and 6ft respectively, and periods around 15-16 seconds. The wind stays light, so the morning sessions will be your best bet. Then, from Friday the 11th, we start to see a shift. The wind picks up to 9 mph and goes cross-onshore, and the swell drops a bit. Saturday the 12th is a write-off with a risk of thunderstorms and cross-onshore wind.

Sunday the 13th sees a pulse of 6ft SW swell at 18 seconds, with energy at 2291, and clean offshore wind. That’s a good session, but the real standout is further out. Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th are poor – the wind goes cross-onshore and turns choppy, with scores of 0. Keep your board in the car.

Then, we get a promising but less certain run in the second week. Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th are still messy, but by Friday the 18th, the wind goes light and offshore again, with a 6ft SSW swell, period 16, and energy 2029. That’s a solid session. The real big one, though, is on Saturday the 20th of September. We’re looking at an 8ft SSW swell at a massive 21-second period, with energy at 5800 – that’s very strong. The wind is light, cross-onshore, but for a reef, that long period is gold. This is a big, powerful swell that will be too much for beginners – it’s strictly for experts. If the wind cleans up, it could be the best day of the whole outlook. But it’s a long way out, so keep an eye on the forecast.

The bottom line: the best bet is Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th for clean, long-period groundswell, and then keep an eye on Saturday the 20th for a potential bomb. Ketewel is an inconsistent spot, so when it fires, it’s worth it. Crowds are possible on the good days, so get in early.

Rusty.

Read more