Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's on offer. It's a bit of a mixed bag, and you've got to pick your moments.

Right now, the picture is dominated by a solid, long-period groundswell. We're talking consistent 7 ft to 8 ft of SSW swell, with periods hanging around 15 to 17 seconds. That's proper energy, and the combined swell energy is massive, hitting four-digit numbers like 3037. This is serious ocean, with very strong wave energy. The water temp is sitting at 80°, which is about average for this time of year. Now, the problem is the wind. All week it's been a stubborn cross-on shore from the SE, gusting up to 12 mph. That's making things choppy and messy. The break, Ketewel, is a reef setup, so the wind direction isn’t ideal. The swell is also a touch big for fun times, over 8 ft at times, which puts it squarely in the expert-only zone and is probably too much for most.

We kick things off on Wednesday the 12th of August. There’s wave height, but the conditions are poor. It's a marginal call with the cross-on wind and rough water.

Thursday 13th and Friday 14th of August – we see the swell staying strong around 8 ft to 7 ft, but that SE cross-on wind persists. It’s going to be a bumpy ride. The energy is still enormous (3051 on Thursday morning), but the quality just isn't there for a good paddle. For the experienced crew, there will be waves to be had, but don't expect a glassy face.

Saturday 15th of August is where things get interesting. The wind is forecast to drop to a light breeze from the SE, and we get an “on” wind label in the afternoon, which is a bit more clean than the cross-on. The swell sits around 7 ft to 7 ft with a 17-second period. The energy is still pumping (2728). This is easily the best window in the first week. If you are very experienced, the Saturday afternoon session is the one to aim for. The crowd factor at Ketewel is “sometimes,” so you might have some company, but with these conditions, it’s worth it.

After Saturday, the wind continues to be a factor. Sunday 16th of August has lighter winds, but the swell begins to drop and the quality is still lacking. By Monday 17th and Tuesday 18th, the combination of dropping size and persistent cross-on wind makes for days best spent doing something else. The swell energy drops into the 900-2000 range, which is still moderate to strong, but the conditions are described as poor.

There’s a bit of a lull in quality through the middle of the week. Wednesday 19th of August sees the swell kicking back up to 8 ft with a long 18-second period, but again that SE cross-on wind spoils the party. The energy is huge (3208) but it’s a frustrating combo.

Thursday 20th of August is another one for experts only. Swell hits 8 ft with a 16-second period and the wind picks up to a moderate 12 mph cross-on. The ocean will be a beast, but it’s going to be choppy and hard work.

The outlook from the 21st through to the 27th is a tale of two halves. The swell stays present, mostly in the 5 ft to 8 ft range, but the wind remains a persistent SE or SSE cross-on or onshore. The energy values remain in the strong range, often over 2000. There are a few afternoons around the 22nd of August where the wind goes “on,” meaning it's somewhat cleaner, but the consistency of the conditions is just not there for a standout session. The last few days of the window, from the 24th to the 27th, the swell drops significantly, and by the 27th, the energy is down to 714, which is weak, and the conditions are reported as poor. There isn't a single day in this entire 16-day window that I would call a classic. The best bet is hands down the Saturday afternoon session, but it’s a picky, expert-only window.

Rusty.

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