Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s on offer at Ketewel.

Alright, straight up – the next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag for Ketewel. There’s always some swell in the water, but it’s been a struggle to get good conditions. The wind is nearly always from the southeast, which is cross-on for this sheltered reef, and that’s going to keep things choppy and messy for most of the period. The water temp is sitting at 80°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year.

The first real chance to get excited about comes on Tuesday, September 8th. The morning bumps are around 5 ft from the SSW, with a period of 19 seconds – that’s a proper long-period groundswell, and it’ll bring a lot of energy (combined energy of 2597). The wind is onshore from the SSE at 9 mph, so it’s not perfect, but it’s manageable. The afternoon sees a slight bump to 6 ft with a 18-second period, and the energy stays high (2928). The same setup holds for Wednesday, September 9th, with a bit more size – 8 ft in the morning (combined energy of 2903) and 7 ft in the afternoon (2368). The wind is still cross-on, but it’s a lighter breeze at 6 mph on Wednesday afternoon, which is a bit better. This is a consistent, solid run of swell, but honestly, the wind is the main downside. For a reef break like Ketewel, that onshore wind is going to mess with the surface. It’s still surfable, but don’t expect perfection.

Now, looking further ahead, the standout option is the very end of the window. On Tuesday, September 22nd, we’re looking at some serious grunt – 10 ft in the morning and 12 ft in the afternoon, both from the SSW with a long period of 19 to 20 seconds. The combined energy is massive (7516 and 8209). This is big, powerful groundswell, and it’s not for the faint-hearted. For a reef break, that kind of size and period is expert-only territory. The good news is the wind looks like it could be light and onshore, or even near glassy, with SSE winds at just 6 mph. That’s a major positive for clean conditions. The period is very long, so the waves will be well-shaped and powerful, but it’s going to be a big, heavy wave. If you’re an experienced surfer, this is the best on offer, but it’s still a long way out, so take it with a grain of salt.

In between, there’s a lot of mediocre surf. The swell stays around 5 ft to 7 ft from the SSW for most of the first week, but the wind is persistently cross-on from the SE at 9 mph, keeping the surface choppy. The energy is moderate to strong (between 1000 and 2000 for most sessions). Friday and Saturday, September 11th and 12th, are particularly poor with the wind honking cross-on. There’s a slight improvement on Sunday, September 20th, with bigger swell up to 8 ft and lighter winds, but it’s still a cross-on breeze.

Overall, the best bet is the 22nd of September, but it’s a big, expert-only wave. The rest of the period is a game of waiting for the wind to play nice. If you’re a beginner, the smaller days around 4 ft to 5 ft might be worth a look, but with the wind as it is, it’s not the most inviting. The crowds at Ketewel can be an issue sometimes, so factor that in for the cleaner windows.

Rusty signing off.

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