Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s talk in feet and miles per hour.

Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it. The next 16 days at Ketewel are a real mixed bag and honestly, for a spot that’s already a bit of a tease with its inconsistency, this is a frustrating run. The set-up is a sheltered reef that loves a solid south swell, and we’ve got plenty of that coming through, but the wind is the story here. It’s almost always a cross-onshore breeze from the SE or ESE, which is going to keep things choppy and lumpy. It’s not proper offshore, so the wave faces won't be that classic Ketewel wall.

The water is sitting at 80°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We kick off on Saturday, August 9, with a solid 7ft SSW groundswell at a long 16 seconds, but the wind is already cross-on. The combined energy is a massive 2521 (moderate to strong), but that’s tied to a "marginal" call. It’s not clean. Sunday morning and afternoon, August 10, drop to 7ft but the wind stays cross-on. This pattern of "good size, bad wind" just keeps going. The swell is pumping, period is long, and the energy is three-digit and four-digit (like 4753 on Monday afternoon, August 11, with a 10ft SSW swell), but it’s all locked in with that dirty cross-onshore breeze.

The two best moments in this whole window are slim pickings, but here goes. The absolute standout is the afternoon of Monday, August 11. We’ve got a 10ft SSW swell at 18 seconds, and the wind goes "on" (which for this sheltered spot means it’s coming from the SE, straight into the bay). The combined energy is a very strong 4753. It’s big, it’s powerful, and it’s a long-period groundswell. That’s expert territory and the reef will be handling it, but the crowd is a factor since it’s "sometimes" busy. The other one to watch is Friday morning, August 15. A 8ft SSW swell with a 16-second period, and the wind is "on" (SE, 9 mph). The energy is 2640. It’s still a big wave for a reef, but it’s the cleanest window we get.

Don’t get too excited about the second week. By Monday, August 18, the swell drops to 5ft and the wind is still cross-on. The forecast is straight-up "poor surf conditions" then. The swell bumps back up to 8ft on Wednesday, August 20, but the wind is a moderate cross-onshore at 12 mph, making it choppy and messy. That’s more likely to be a kite-surfing show than a paddle-in session.

Honestly, if you’re an experienced surfer who can handle a big, powerful reef with a bit of chop, the afternoon of August 11 or the morning of August 15 is your best bet. For everyone else, it’s a good time to wait for a better forecast.

Rusty, signing off.

Read more