Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a proper look at what's coming our way.

Straight up, this outlook for Ketewel is a tough one. The whole 16-day run is plagued by cross-onshore winds that are going to mess with the surface. It’s one of those periods where you’ll be checking the forecast more than you’ll be in the water. The first bit of surf that shows up is on Sunday the 5th, but it's a real struggle.

Sunday, July 5th kicks things off with a 5.9ft SSW groundswell, but it's coming from the south-southwest with a period of 14 seconds. Here's the problem: the wind is blowing cross-on from the southeast at 6 mph. It's a light breeze, sure, but it's enough to put a light cross-onshore texture on the face. The combined wave energy is strong at 1478, but the conditions are marginal at best. The water temp is about average for this time of year. For an advanced spot like this that's inconsistent, you need it firing, and this just isn't it.

From Sunday afternoon all the way through to Sunday, July 19th, it’s a grim run. The wind stays stubbornly cross-onshore from the southeast, mostly a moderate breeze of 9 to 16 mph, which keeps the surface choppy and ugly. There are a few pulses of energy – like on Wednesday the 8th with a 5.9ft to 6.2ft swell, or Thursday the 9th with similar size – but the wind just kills it every time. The swell direction is mostly SSW, which is the optimum direction for Ketewel, but when the wind is ruining the shape, it doesn’t matter. The period varies between a short 7 seconds on the 13th and a very long 19 seconds on the 19th, but with that cross-on wind, the long period stuff will just make the already tricky take-off even more frustrating.

Monday, July 20th finally shows a glimmer of something different. We’ve got a solid 7.5ft SSW groundswell rolling in, with a very long 20-second period. The combined energy is massive at 4423. This is expert territory for sure – that size at an advanced break is no joke. The wind is still a moderate cross-onshore at 12 mph from the southeast, so it's still messy. This is the one standout of the whole outlook, but it's a long way out and the wind needs to play ball. If that wind dropped, it would be a session to remember. As it stands, it's a promising but uncertain call. For a spot that's sometimes crowded, you'd want it clean to make it worth the fight.

Honestly, for most of this period, the setup is so marginal with that persistent cross-onshore wind and a beach-and-reef setup, it looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

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