Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. I've only got one spot on the radar for this outlook, so let's get into it.

We’re looking at a pretty drawn-out run of marginal conditions at Ketewel. It’s a sheltered reef setup, not a beach break, so it won't handle slop well. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing wild to report there.

The bad news is, for the first few days—Sunday the 6th through Tuesday the 8th—the wind is onshore and the combined swell energy is pumping moderate to strong (1657–3083), but the forecast keeps flagging "questionable tide conditions." That's a red flag for a reef. It’s 5 ft to 7 ft of SSW swell with some seriously long periods—14 to 19 seconds. That's proper groundswell, but onshore wind means it'll be messy. This spot is an advanced wave for a reason; the long period stuff can suck the water off the reef, making it tricky and shallow. Not for the faint of heart.

Wednesday the 9th morning stays onshore, but by the afternoon we get a slight shift: a light cross-on breeze. The swell is around 7 ft from the SSW at 16 seconds, which gives a strong energy reading (2368). This is probably the most surfable window of the first week. It’s still “marginal” in the data, but with that light wind, you might get a few clean ones if the tide plays ball. It’s inconsistent here though, so you’ll be waiting.

From Thursday the 10th right through to Monday the 14th, it’s a real grind. The wind swings cross-onshore and stiffens up to a gentle breeze. The combined energy starts dropping, and you see "poor surf conditions" popping up on the 12th and 13th. Saturday the 12th afternoon and Monday the 14th are outright write-offs (energy down to 1066 and 1127). The swell is still coming from the SSW, but it’s getting chopped up. Don't bother.

There’s a big gap of poor to marginal conditions from Tuesday the 15th to Thursday the 17th. The wind stays cross-onshore or onshore, and the energy levels are weak (1051 to 1319). Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th show a little life again. On Saturday the 19th, we get a light onshore breeze and the swell bumps up to 6 ft in the morning and 7 ft in the afternoon from the SSW, with periods of 16-17 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 2034 and 2303. It’s still flagged as marginal, but that’s the most promising energy we’ve seen in days.

Finally, Sunday the 20th morning looks like the standout of the whole 16-day stretch. The swell hits 8 ft from the SSW at 15 seconds, with strong energy of 2703. The wind is onshore, which is a killer for a reef, but if it’s light enough to clean it up, that’s the biggest, most powerful swell of the period. That 8 ft is pushing into expert-only territory for a reef like Ketewel. It’s inconsistent, so the long lulls will be your friend. After that, it drops off again on Monday.

Overall, there’s no perfect day here, but if I had to pick, Sunday morning the 20th has the most grunt, and Wednesday afternoon the 9th offers the most likely chance of a clean window with lighter winds. Don't expect a crowd at either; this spot sees them "sometimes," but the marginal conditions will keep the masses away.

Rusty.

Read more