Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it for the home patch.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the outlook for the next couple of weeks is a bit of a tough one. We're looking at a solid block of days where the conditions just aren't playing ball. The wind is set to be a persistent problem, keeping things choppy and messy. For the most part, we're looking at a long stretch of poor to marginal surf, with a lot of cross-onshore breeze. There's not much to get excited about until the very end of the period.

Ketewel is the only spot on the cards, and it's a really tricky one. This reef break is an advanced wave, and it's already inconsistent, so it takes a lot to get it right. We're looking at a long, dry spell here. From Sunday the 19th of July right through to the 27th, it's just a constant stream of poor conditions. The wind is mostly cross-onshore from the SE, 9 to 15 mph, which just ruins the surface. The swell is there, but it's all over the shop. The water is a very warm 82°F, which is about 2°F warmer than normal for this time of year, so you won't need a rubber.

The first couple of days, starting Sunday the 19th, we've got a 4ft SSW swell with a 13-second period, but with that 12 mph cross-onshore wind, it's just a choppy mess (combined energy of 745). The wave energy picks up a bit on the 20th, with a 6ft to 7ft SSW swell, but the period is a long 16-17 seconds. That's a groundswell, which is good for shape in theory, but at a beach-reef setup like this, a long period can make it break too straight. The wind is still a problem, so we're looking at marginal surf at best.

The pattern continues day after day. The wind is relentless. On the 23rd, we get a brief moment of onshore wind, but it's still from the SE and the swell is only 4ft. It's not enough to save it. The wave energy fluctuates, but it's never paired with clean wind. The period on the 24th and 27th gets up to 18 and 19 seconds—really long groundswell—but it's all for nothing with the wind. The 27th morning has a tiny 2ft swell with a 19-second period, which is just not going to break properly.

Then, finally, we get a glimmer towards the end. Wednesday the 29th of July is the best on offer, and it's still not a full-on winner. We've got a 6ft to 6ft SSW swell, with a period of 15-16 seconds. The wind drops to a light breeze, 6 to 9 mph, but it's still cross-onshore. The wave energy is strong, hitting 1510. The condition is "marginal," but it's the least bad we've seen. It's a long-range call, but it's the only real chance to get something a bit more solid, even if it's still a bit bumpy. The 30th also looks marginal with a 5ft swell and onshore wind, which might be worth a look if the rain holds off.

The swell pushes over 7ft on the 3rd of August, but with the wind still howling cross-onshore, that's going to be a big, lumpy mess only for the experts.

So, the takeaway? It's a pretty grim run. The 29th and 30th are your best shots, but don't expect perfection. It's a case of making the most of the least worst option.

Rusty.

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