Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and it's time to get real about the next couple of weeks at our wave. We're looking at Ketewel, a sheltered south-facing reef, and it's a classic case of having to dig deep to find the fun. The water is sitting at a normal 80° for this time of year, so at least you don't need a thick suit.

Right now, and into the start of the week, it's pretty grim. The wind is coming from the southeast, putting a cross-onshore crinkle on everything. Swell is underwhelming and messy, with a combined energy reading of just 800. This stretch is a write-off – barely a wave worth paddling for.

Come Tuesday the 18th, things start to look a little more interesting. The swell is still a bit onshore, but the energy is starting to ramp up. By Wednesday the 19th, we have a proper building trend. Swell from the SSW is climbing to 8ft by the afternoon, with a long 17 to 18 second period. The energy is pumping into the strong range at 3561. This is groundswell with serious push. However, that persistent cross-onshore wind is still there, chopping it up. It's a shame, because the potential is there, but it won't be glassy.

The standout period, if you can call it that, looks like Thursday the 20th morning. The swell maxes out at 8ft from the SSW with a 16-second period, and the energy is sky-high at 3179. This is serious, expert-only territory. The combo of size and period will make it a freight train on this reef. For the rest of the week into the 21st and 22nd, we get a slow decline in size with similar 16 to 18 second pulses, but the wind remains a problem – moderate cross-onshore on the 22nd making for some choppy conditions.

We then hit a wall of minimal surf from Sunday the 23rd all the way through the 29th. It’s flat, and the small, weak swells that pop up are just not worth the paddle. The energy readings dip way down into the 600s and 900s. This is a proper lull, folks.

Looking way out to the last day of August, Sunday the 30th, there's a hint of life. Light onshore winds and a pulse of 5ft SW swell with 18-second period arrives, pushing the energy to 1927. It's still a bit dicey, but the light wind is a big improvement. The best chance of the entire window might be Monday, 31st August. The swell is steady at 6ft from the SW, period is 16 seconds, and the wind is light from the SSE, making for clean, glassy conditions and manageable size. The energy is a solid 1968. This is the only time the stars try to align.

Overall, this is a frustrating outlook. The consistent problem is the wind direction – we never get a true offshore, and the cross-onshore ruins what could be some epic, long-period groundswell. If you're an expert looking for a heavy, challenging wave, the middle of next week (19th – 22nd) has the size and power, but don't expect perfection. If you want the cleanest surf, bank on Monday, 31st August. That's the call. It’s a reef break that can get crowded sometimes, so keep that in mind. For most of the window, the beachies would be blown out for a paddle board, but the wind and swell setup might actually be more fun for the kite crew on a bigger day.

Stay patient.

- Rusty

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