Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mate, Rusty here. Let's get straight into it.

The next couple of weeks are looking like a bit of a mixed bag for us. It’s not going to be flat, but the conditions are going to be playing games with us. We’re looking at a whole run of surf that’s there, but it’s going to be a constant battle with cross-onshore breezes keeping things lumpy. The standout days are going to be when that wind eases off and goes more straight on, or even better, gets lighter.

Things kick off on Sunday the 9th. We’ve got a solid 7ft of south-southwest swell running with a 16-second period, but that east-southeast wind at 12 mph is going to chop it up. It's not going to be pretty. The energy is weak, sitting at 2014, so it’s not really doing much for us. This is purely a "watch it from the beach" kind of day.

The real promise shows up on Monday the 10th. It's still not perfect, but that swell drops slightly to 6ft, the period jumps to a very long 19 seconds, and the energy jumps right up to a strong 3209. The wind is still a cross-onshore, but it’s a lighter 9 mph. That long period is the key. It’s a proper groundswell with some real push behind it. The real standouts, though, are Tuesday the 11th. The swell builds to a solid 10ft from the south-southwest with a 16-second period, and the energy is pumping at 4447 in the morning, building to a very strong 5771 by the afternoon. The wind stays a light 9 mph. This is a proper day for the experienced crew. This is at Ketewel, and with the water temp sitting at 80°—which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year—you won't need much rubber.

Don’t get too excited, because Wednesday the 12th is a step back. The swell eases to 7ft but the wind picks back up to a 12 mph cross-onshore, and the energy drops too. We're back to choppy, messy conditions. Thursday the 13th is a bit better on the wind front, with a lighter 9 mph straight onshore breeze, and the swell is still a healthy 8ft to 8ft with a 17-second period. The energy is moderate at 3199 and 3470. It’s still not glassy, but it’s surfable.

Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th look like our best bets for the first week. The wind drops right out to a light 6 mph on Friday, with a 8ft south-southwest swell at 16 seconds. It’s still onshore, but that light breeze means it’s going to be far cleaner than anything else we’ve seen. The energy is moderate at 2868. Saturday is similar, with a 7ft to 7ft swell and a gentle 9 mph onshore breeze. These two days are your go-to for the week if you want anything near decent.

Sunday the 16th is still okay with a 7ft swell and a light breeze, but the cross-onshore wind is back to add a bit of chop. From Monday the 17th, things go a bit flat. The swell drops to 5ft and the wave energy just falls off a cliff down to 987. This looks like a couple of days of poor, weak surf. We’ve got a lull for Monday and Tuesday morning.

Things pick back up from Tuesday afternoon the 18th through the rest of that week. The swell comes back to a consistent 6ft to 8ft with a decent 16-18 second period, and the energy is back in the 2000-4000 range. The wind, however, is a constant cross-onshore at 9-12 mph, which is a real shame. It’s going to keep everything bumpy. The highlight of this second stretch looks like Friday the 21st. The swell is 8ft to 8ft and the wind goes light at 9 mph, but it's still going to be a bit cross-onshore.

Into the final weekend, the 23rd and 24th, the swell fades a little and the wind is light, but it's still not clean. There's still surf to be had, but nothing that's going to be memorable.

So, to wrap it up: The first week has the most potential, with Tuesday the 11th being the big, powerful, expert-only day. But for the best balance of size and clean conditions, keep Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th marked in your calendar. The second week is more of a fight with the wind, but the swell stays consistent enough to get your fix. This break is inconsistent, so you have to take the good windows when they come.

Rusty out.

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