Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty. Let's have a look at what's coming up for Ketewel.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you—this isn't looking good for a paddle. The whole 16-day window is a tough stretch, and honestly, there's no session in there I'd call a standout. The wind is locked in from the southeast and east-southeast, blowing cross-on shore almost every single day with a moderate breeze around 12 to 16 mph, which is keeping the surface choppy and messy. The swell is coming from the SSW mostly, with some SE pulses, but the quality just isn't there.

We kick things off on Saturday the 25th of July, and it's already poor. Swell is around 4ft from the SSW with a long 15-second period, giving moderate wave energy (990), but that cross-on wind kills it. This pattern holds all through the weekend and into the next week. By Sunday the 26th, the swell jumps to 7ft from the SE with a shorter 9-second period, and the energy climbs to moderate (1046), but the cross-on breeze is still 16 mph, so it's choppy and poor. Monday the 27th stays similar: 7–7ft from the SE, period dropping to 8 seconds (weak to moderate energy around 786–793), and still that cross-on wind. This is the sort of setup that looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

There's a slight improvement in the wind on Friday the 31st of July and into the first few days of August, when the wind eases to a gentle breeze around 9 mph. The swell is coming in from the SSW with long periods around 16–18 seconds, and the wave energy climbs into the strong range—like 1888 on Saturday the 1st of August and 3373 on Sunday the 2nd. But the catch is it's still cross-on and fairly choppy, and the forecast says "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions." Even the bigger pulses, like 6ft on Sunday the 2nd, aren't cleaning up.

Now, the one real positive shift comes on Thursday the 6th of August. For the first time in the run, the wind swings to a straight onshore or even offshore direction—SSE at 9 mph—giving us "on" wind instead of cross-on. Swell is 5–5ft from the SSW with a nice 15-second period, and the energy is moderate to strong (1267–1402). There's still poor surf quality flagged Thursday morning, but Thursday afternoon at least rates as marginal. That's the best we see all period, but it's not a standout—just the least bad option.

Friday the 7th of August afternoon shows a similar onshore SSE wind and a nice 5ft SSW swell with a very long 18-second period, giving strong wave energy (2345), but it's still rated marginal. And then into the second week, Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th of August see the biggest swell of the run—8ft from the SSW with a 17-second period, strong to very strong energy (3896–4206). That's expert-only territory at that size, and with cross-on or onshore winds, it's not shaping up well. The longer period (15+ seconds) suggests better shaped waves from a groundswell, but at a sheltered reef like Ketewel (which likes swell from the south), the cross-on breeze and choppy surface ruin the ride.

To be honest, this is a blank run for most of the 16 days. There are long gaps with no real recommendations—over a week of poor conditions before we see even a marginal window. Ketewel is inconsistent at the best of times, so a stretch like this isn't out of the ordinary for the area. Water temperature is currently 81°F with an anomaly of 0.9°F, about average for this time of year.

If you're dead keen, Thursday the 6th of August afternoon into Friday the 7th might offer a chance if the wind stays favorable, but don't get your hopes up. Otherwise, the forecasts can change, but right now, it's a waiting game.

Rusty.

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