Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here. Let’s get into this one. We’ve got a long look ahead for Ketewel, but don’t get too excited just yet. The first week and a half is going to be a real battle with the wind. This is a sheltered reef break that needs clean conditions to shine, and for most of this period, a persistent cross-onshore breeze is going to mess with the surface. The water temp is sitting at 80°F, which is bang on average for this time of year – nothing weird going on there.

Alright, the forecast kicks off on Sunday, September 13. We’ve got a serious amount of energy in the water – 2106 kilojoules – with a solid 6ft SSW groundswell, long 18-second period. That’s proper swell. But the wind is a 9 mph onshore from the SE. It’s surfable, but it’s going to be a bit lumpy and the margin for error is thin, especially with the tide. The afternoon improves the swell to 6ft but the wind goes cross-onshore, so it’s a similar story. It’s not flat, but it’s not the clean, glassy reef you’d hope for.

Monday and Tuesday, September 14 and 15, are a write-off. The wind stays cross-onshore and choppy with moderate breezes, swell holds around 5-6ft, but the quality is poor. You’d be better off staying in bed.

From Wednesday September 16 through to Friday September 18, we’re in a holding pattern. The swell drops a touch and the period shortens. The wind is still an issue, mostly cross-onshore, and the ratings are poor or marginal at best. There’s a brief window Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning where the wind turns more onshore rather than cross, but it’s still not clean. The energy drops into the three-digit range (894 by Friday), so it’s weakening.

Then we hit a real quiet patch from Saturday September 19 through Tuesday September 22. Swell bottoms out around 4-4ft, periods are short (13-14 seconds), and energy drops as low as 601. The wind is still onshore or cross-on. Don’t bother.

Now, Wednesday September 23 sees a pulse of new swell, 6ft at 16 seconds, energy back up to 1640. But again, the wind is SE cross-on in the morning, turning onshore in the afternoon. It’s a tease.

Here’s the standout period: the last few days of the outlook, from Thursday September 24 through to Sunday September 28. The wind finally looks like it might behave. On Thursday the 24th we’ve got light 6 mph winds, cross-on in the morning but turning onshore by afternoon with swell building to 6ft at 15 seconds. The energy jumps to 2518 on Thursday afternoon – that’s a serious amount of push. Friday the 25th sees similar size (6ft) but the wind goes back to a stronger 9 mph cross-on, so it’s not as perfect.

But Saturday the 26th and Sunday the 27th? This is where it could get interesting. Both days have light 6 mph SE or SSE winds that are onshore, not cross. The swell holds at 7ft on Saturday, dropping to 6ft on Sunday, with periods around 15-16 seconds and good energy (1949 and 1503). That light onshore wind means the face should be reasonably clean, and for a sheltered reef like Ketewel, that’s about as good as it’s going to get from this direction. It’s still a bit big for beginners at over 5ft, but advanced surfers should find some runners.

Monday the 28th offers a final clean window with light SSE winds and a 5-6ft SSW swell, period 16-17 seconds. Not as powerful, but still decent.

Keep in mind, Ketewel can be inconsistent, and with the optimum swell direction from the S, this SSW swell is a touch off-angle. It’ll still wrap in, but it might not be quite as perfect as a straight south. And it can get crowded here, so expect company on the good days.

So the bottom line: The first week and a half is mostly frustrating. If you can wait, the period from Thursday September 24 through Monday September 28 looks like the best bet, with Saturday the 26th and Sunday the 27th being the true standouts if the light winds hold. Long range, so keep an eye on it, but it’s got promise.

Rusty.

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