Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The surf is looking pretty ordinary for the next stretch, if I’m being straight with you. This is a classic case where the ocean’s got some energy, but the conditions are just not lining up for us here at Ketewel. It’s a sheltered reef set-up that needs a fair bit to come together, and for most of the next week and a half, it’s going to be a real struggle for a decent wave.

Kicking off on Thursday the 10th, we’ll see some SSW swell around 6ft at sunrise, bumping up to 7ft in the arvo. But the wind is going to have some SE in it, and there’s a risk of thunderstorms early. It’s gonna be a bit messy, with strong wave energy in the water (1782 and 2057), but it won’t translate into clean rides. The water temp is 80°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so nothing weird there.

Friday and Saturday the 11th and 12th stay in the same boat – SSW swell holds in the 5ft to 6ft range, but that same onshore and cross-onshore wind messes with the surface. Friday’s energy is still considerable (1552 and 1649), but it’s lumpy. Saturday morning drops to 5ft, and the call is for poor conditions, honestly that’s a non-starter.

We get a little more oomph for the swell on Sunday the 13th, with 6ft to 6ft and longer 17-18 second periods. That is some proper groundswell energy (2096 and 2071), but the cross-onshore SE wind is still going to make it bumpy. It’s frustrating because you can feel the power there, but the surface will be chopped.

Monday the 14th sees the wind pick up to 12 mph, and that’s enough to kill it for us. The swell is still there in the 5ft to 6ft range, but with conditions rated as poor, it’s not worth paddling out. Into Tuesday and Wednesday, it’s more of the same – 5ft to 6ft of SSW swell, but with the cross-onshore wind and poor to marginal conditions. The energy is moderate, not all that weak (in the 1100 to 1300 range), but it's just not clean.

The second week doesn’t offer much of a reason to get excited, honestly. We’ll grind through to the 19th with mostly marginal surf, with the swell easing down to 3ft on Saturday arvo. There’s a decent jump on Sunday the 20th though. The swell jumps up to 8ft in the morning with SSW direction, and the energy gets seriously strong (3285). The wind is light offshore, and that’s the one standout. This is a powerful swell, over 8ft, so it’s experts only. It could be the best on offer, but it’s also a beast. For the advanced crew, this could be a proper session. The period is 16 seconds though, and for a reef like Ketewel that’s a bit of a caveat; it might be a bit lined up and straight. But still, that light offshore wind is a huge plus.

After that, we see the swell settle back into the 4ft to 7ft range through the 25th. There are a couple of glimmers, especially on the 23rd when the energy picks up (2243) with an offshore wind, but it’s still a lot of cross-on. Thursday the 25th has a 5ft morning that’s cross-on again, but then the arvo shows a long-period 20-second groundswell at 4ft, and that could be interesting. The energy is strong (2159), and while it’s small, the long period means some push. For a reef, that might be worth a look, but it’s still a gamble with the wind.

So, let’s be honest: the real standout is that Sunday the 20th. If you’re a solid surfer who knows the reef, that’s your window, but be prepared for a heavy one. Before that, it’s all about picking scraps. The long periods on the 19th and 25th could provide some clean ones if the wind truly goes offshore, but they’re not guaranteed. This place is inconsistent, and this forecast is a great example of why. Keep an eye on that 20th, and otherwise, be patient.

Rusty

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