Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it. The only game in town for the next 16 days is Ketewel, a tricky reef set-up that only breaks for the advanced crew. It’s an inconsistent spot, so when it fires, you have to be ready.

Right now, it’s not looking like much of a party. Wednesday morning the 5th kicks off with a 5ft SSW swell, but that cross-on wind from the ESE at 9 mph is messing it up. The combined energy is already solid (1163), but the conditions are poor. A long period groundswell of 14 seconds is there, but it's not doing anyone any favors with that wind.

Thursday the 6th through to Saturday the 8th sees the swell building to around 7ft, still from the SSW, but it's a similar story: cross-onshore winds, choppy surfaces, and the wave state is marginal. The energy climbs to a moderate 2894 on Friday morning, but the quality just isn’t there for a good paddle.

Sunday the 9th is a write-off – poor conditions all day with the wind picking up.

Monday the 10th is interesting. The morning is still marginal with 5ft from the SSW, but that period jumps to a very long 20 seconds. The energy is moderate (2640). Then Monday afternoon, the swell jumps to 8ft and the wind shifts a little more onshore. The energy hits 4882, which is strong. Still, it's not clean.

Now, the standout window appears to be around Tuesday the 11th. Swell size is pushing 10ft from the SSW with a 17-second period in the morning. The combined energy is strong at 4832. The wind is a gentle cross-on at 9 mph, which is okay, but not perfect. The wave state is marginal. At this size, it's expert-only territory. The afternoon is similar. This is the biggest, most powerful swell of the period, but the wind is the limiting factor.

From Wednesday the 12th through to the end of the first week, the swell drops back to the 6-7ft range. Winds stay cross-on or onshore. Energy remains moderate to strong, but the quality remains marginal.

The second week starts with more of the same. Thursday the 13th has a 7ft SSW swell with 16-second period and 2605 energy. Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th are poor, with choppy conditions.

Look, the best bet in this 16-day run is Tuesday the 11th. That’s when the swell is biggest (10ft) and the energy is pumping (4832). It's a long-period groundswell, so at a reef break like Ketewel, it could offer some proper shape for the experts who can handle it. The wind is not ideal, but it's the most powerful window we have.

Keep an eye on Monday the 10th as well, with that very long 20-second period. That could be a sneaky good session if the wind plays ball.

Otherwise, it's a waiting game. The conditions are consistently choppy with that cross-on ESE/SE flow. For now, this looks more like a setup for a kite session than a clean paddle-surf day, especially with that consistent wind. The water temp is about average for the time of year.

Stay patient, check the charts, and be ready for that Tuesday the 11th window. It’s the best of a marginal bunch.

Rusty.

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