Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s on the table for Ketewel over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch ahead. We’ve got a solid run of days with no real quality surf on the cards. The first few days are a write-off. We’re looking at a good 8 or 9 day gap before anything even starts to look interesting. The swell is there, no doubt, with a long-period SSW groundswell, but the wind is just a constant issue. It’s nearly always cross-onshore from the southeast, which is killing any chance of clean faces.

The first time we get even a hint of something worth paddling out for is on Sunday the 20th of September. The morning shows a 7 ft SSW swell with a 17-second period – that’s proper long-period groundswell, packing some serious energy (2291). The wind is light from the southeast, and it’s actually onshore. That’s not ideal, but for this reef break, it’s a big step up. The water temp is a warm 80°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year. Still, the forecast calls it marginal.

Then, the real standout window looks like the 23rd of September. Wednesday morning we see a 7 ft SSW swell with a 16-second period and a combined energy of 2495 – that’s a proper pulse of energy. The wind is still cross-onshore from the SE, but this is the biggest, most powerful swell of the whole outlook. For the advanced crew, this could be the one to circle. The afternoon keeps similar size and power. This is big for the spot, over 7 ft, so definitely not one for the beginners – this is expert territory only, especially on a reef break like Ketewel. It’s also worth noting the swell direction is SSW, which is exactly the optimum direction for this sheltered spot. The crowds can sometimes be an issue here, but with conditions like this, there won’t be many out.

After that, the swell backs off a touch into the 24th and 25th, but stays in the 5 ft to 6 ft range, with that long-period quality fading. The 26th of September has a really interesting blip: a 3 ft swell, but with a 19-second period. That’s a very long period for such a small wave, which could give you some really lined-up, glassy walls if the wind plays ball.

So to wrap it up: the first week and a half is a total non-starter. The standout is the 23rd of September, with that powerful SSW groundswell. For the experts, that’s the day to be looking at, but it’s still a long way out so keep an eye on the wind forecasts.

Rusty.

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