Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's have a look at what's coming up for Ketewel over the next couple of weeks.

First off, I’ve gotta be straight with you. Right now and for the next several days, it’s looking pretty grim. We’ve got a solid SSW swell running, with wave heights around 6 ft and a long 16-second groundswell period – that’s got some serious energy behind it, clocking in at 1479 on the combined energy scale. But the wind is the killer. It’s been hammering from the SE at 12 mph, putting a nasty cross-onshore chop on everything. The water temp is sitting at 80°, which is about average for this time of year. This setup is just messy and blown out. Honestly, the conditions are poor, and it’s not worth paddling out.

Things start to get a little more interesting around Thursday, August 27th. The wind starts to ease and turn more onshore, but it's light enough that it might clean up slightly. We’re still dealing with a big, long-period swell – that Thursday afternoon sees a 3 ft swell from the SSW with a very long 20-second period and a combined energy of 1647. That’s a lot of power for a small wave. The issue is the tide. It’s marginal at best, so you’d be hunting for the right hour. Not a standout, but a glimmer of hope.

Now, if you can wait, the best window appears on Friday, August 28th (morning). The swell jumps up to 8 ft from the SSW, still with that lovely 16-second period, and the combined energy surges to 3065 – that is proper, strong wave energy. The wind is light and onshore from the SSE at just 6 mph. For a reef break like Ketewel, which is sheltered and needs that SSW sweet spot – and the guidance says optimum is from the S – this is close. The size is going to be too much for beginners, but for you advanced guys, this is the pick of the forecast. It’s still a bit marginal on the tide, but that’s the closest we get to a good session in this run.

After that, the swell backs off a touch, but we get a long stretch of onshore to light onshore winds and moderate energy, with a few afternoons showing a score of 2. The 31st of August (Monday afternoon) sees another pulse with a 6 ft swell, but that 19-second period makes it a bit tricky for a beach setup – those long-period groundswells tend to close out and are better on the reef, so Ketewel could handle it.

Into the first week of September, the pattern holds. Swell hangs around the 5 ft to 7 ft mark, with periods from 14 to 16 seconds. Winds stay SE, mostly 9 mph, keeping things cross-onshore and choppy. It’s not terrible, but it’s not clean. The 6th and 7th of September show some promising 6 ft to 7 ft swells with light winds from the S and SSE, but the scores are still just a 1. It’s a long-range promise, but nothing solid enough to call a standout.

So, to sum it up: the first few days are a write-off. The only real highlight in the whole 16-day window is Friday morning, August 28th. If you’re an expert and you can work around the tide, that 8 ft SSW swell with light winds is your best bet. Everything else is either blown out or marginal.

Stay tuned, and keep an eye on the forecast. Things can change.

- Rusty

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