Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, and I’m looking at the surf outlook for Ketewel over the next 16 days.

Honestly, straight up, it’s a tough run. This reef break is a sheltered setup, preferring a southerly swell direction, and we’ve got that, but the wind is the real killer here. The whole period is plagued by a persistent cross-onshore breeze from the ESE/SE, which has the surface chopped up and messy. It’s not a good look for a wave that needs clean conditions to shine.

The first few days, from Sunday the 26th through to Wednesday the 29th, are just poor. We’re looking at a moderate breeze and choppy, ugly surf. Swell height is around 6 ft to 7 ft on the Sunday, dropping to 3 ft by Tuesday, but the wind makes it unrideable. The combined wave energy is moderate, around 884 (Sunday) to 854 (Wednesday), but it’s all wasted energy.

Then we get into a long stretch of marginal conditions. Thursday the 30th through to Saturday the 9th of August is a gray area. The swell is there, mostly from the SSW, with periods getting long – up to 17 seconds. That’s long-period groundswell, which is powerful, but it’s prone to breaking too straight here at a beach/reef setup. The wave energy gets strong, hitting 1322 (Thursday) and up to 1702 (Sunday), but it’s still mostly cross-onshore or onshore. The wind eases a little, becoming a light to gentle breeze, but the chop is still there. The commentary says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” which is a polite way of saying it’s not worth paddling out for.

The best, and I mean the only real standout, is the very end of the period. Monday the 10th of August morning has a 8 ft SSW swell with a 16-second period, and the offshore wind direction is “on” – meaning it’s blowing straight offshore. That is a massive game-changer. The combined energy is huge at 5527, which is very strong. This is a true expert-only wave. For a reef break, a clean 8 ft SSW groundswell with offshore wind is a dream. But it’s a long way out, so treat it as a promising but less certain call. The crowds are “sometimes” at Ketewel, so you might get a few on it.

For the rest, it’s pretty grim. The lack of clean, rideable waves means this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for most of the window. The water temperature is about average for the time of year. We’re looking at a long gap of almost two weeks before that one glimmer of hope on the 10th.

Rusty.

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