Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a solid run of groundswell on the way for Ketewel, but it’s not all smooth sailing. This is a sheltered reef setup that really needs the stars to align, and for most of the next couple of weeks, the wind is going to be the main problem.

The pattern starts with a strong, long-period SSW groundswell already in the water. The combined energy is hefty, hitting 2027 (moderate energy) on Sunday morning, but the wind is a cross-onshore breeze from the ESE at 12 mph, which is going to chop things up. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.

Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th are frustrating. We’ve got a solid 7 ft swell from the SSW with a very long 16-second period, but the wind stays cross-onshore or onshore, leaving the surface messy. The energy builds to over 3200 by Monday morning, but it’s just not clean. You’d be paddling into bumpy, lumpy lines.

Then things get interesting. Monday afternoon through Tuesday the 11th, the wind swings onshore but the swell pumps up to 10 ft from the SSW, with periods of 18 seconds. The energy is strong, hitting 4753 on Monday afternoon and 5586 on Tuesday afternoon. This is a serious amount of juice. But here’s the catch – 10 ft is big, and with the wind at 9 mph onshore, it’s going to be a bumpy, powerful mess. This is expert-only territory, and honestly, not the best look for a clean, rippable wave. The setup might be more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers if the wind stays on.

The best chance at a decent wave comes on Thursday the 13th through Saturday the 15th. The swell drops back to a still-strong 8 ft from the S and SSW, and the wind turns light and onshore from the SSE at only 6 mph. That’s a light breeze, and while it’s not glassy offshore, it’s light enough that the wave quality will improve dramatically. The energy is still moderate to strong, around 2500-3400. This is the window to watch. The reef will handle the long period, and the lighter wind means you’ll get some clean, workable faces. It’s still big for beginners, but for advanced surfers, Thursday morning through Saturday afternoon is the standout.

After that, the swell slowly backs off. By Monday the 17th, the energy drops to 958 (weak), and the wave heights are down to 5 ft. The wind stays light, but the poor surf conditions kick in. There’s a real gap from the 17th through the 19th where the energy is just too weak to get excited about. A few days of small, weak waves.

Then we get a second pulse of swell around Wednesday the 19th, with 7 ft from the SSW and strong energy (2750), but the wind stiffens to 12 mph cross-onshore again. Choppy and lumpy. That pattern holds through the 23rd – moderate swell, moderate energy, but the wind is always cross or onshore. The last few days of the outlook, around the 24th, the swell fades to 6 ft and the wind goes onshore, so not much to write home about.

The call: If you’re an advanced surfer, the best window is Thursday the 13th through Saturday the 15th. The swell is solid, the wind is light, and the energy is there. It’s not perfect, but it’s the cleanest we’ll see. The rest of the run is plagued by onshore wind, and the big 10 ft+ days are just too messy for good surfing. This is a spot that needs that offshore or glassy wind to really shine, and we don’t get that here.

Rusty.

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