Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here, checkin’ in from the beach. Let’s have a good look at what’s on offer over the next couple of weeks.

The story for the next 16 days is a bit of a mixed bag at Ketewel. We’ve got a solid run of swell coming in from the SSW, but there’s a persistent cross-onshore wind that’s gonna keep things choppy and messy for a long stretch. The real kicker is that the water temp is sitting at 81° – that’s about average for the time of year, so no need to dig out the steamer just yet.

The first few days, starting Wednesday the 29th, are pretty much a write-off. The swell is small, around 4 ft to 5 ft, but the wind is a cross-on moderate breeze at 12 mph, just tearing the surface apart. The combined energy is moderate (835 to 1306), but the wave comment says it all: “poor surf conditions.” Thursday and Friday are more of the same – Thursday the 30th has a little more energy (1160-1306) but still that 12 mph cross-on wind. Friday the 31st sees a drop in wind to 9 mph, but it’s still cross-on, and the waves are only 4 ft. The afternoon session on Friday gets a “marginal” rating, but it’s hardly a standout.

The weekend of the 1st and 2nd of August shows a bit of improvement. The swell picks up to 5 ft to 6 ft, and the wind drops to a light breeze (6 mph) on Saturday afternoon, making it a light cross-onshore with just small wind ripples. The energy is building too, jumping to 1614 on Saturday and nearly 2000 on Sunday. Still, it’s only “marginal” – the wind angle is just off enough to keep it from being glassy clean.

The real turning point for a potential standout comes in the second week. Keep an eye on Thursday the 7th of August. That morning we’re looking at a 7 ft SSW swell with a period of 17 seconds – that’s proper groundswell with real energy (4669). The afternoon gets even bigger, pushing 10 ft SSW with a 18-second period, and the combined energy hits a massive 5075. Now, that’s a lot of power, but there’s a catch. The wind is still a cross-on moderate breeze at 12 mph, which is a shame because that’s a lot of water moving. The “marginal” rating is frustrating, but if the wind holds steady, it could be a heavy, challenging day for advanced surfers only. The next day, Saturday the 8th, is similar but slightly smaller at 8 ft in the morning.

Honestly, the best of the best on offer is the morning of Sunday the 9th of August. The swell is a solid 8 ft from the SSW, period 16 seconds, with a combined energy of 2920. The wind is a gentle breeze at 9 mph, cross-on, but the wave quality gets a score of 2 out of 10 – the highest we see in the whole run. The afternoon is similar, but the wind turns directly onshore, which might clean it up a bit at the reef. The big drawback is that this spot is “inconsistent,” so don’t expect it to be pumping every set. Also, it’s an advanced reef break, and with the swell over 8 ft, this is strictly for experts. Crowds are possible, so get there early.

The final week tails off a bit. Monday the 11th of August has a smaller 5 ft swell from the south with a very long period of 21 seconds, and the energy is still strong (3053). The wind is onshore, so it might be clean, but the swell direction is a tad south, not the optimum SSW. Ketewel is sheltered, so it needs that SSW angle to really work.

So, to wrap it up: The first 8 days are a grind with choppy, poor to marginal conditions. The standout is Sunday the 9th of August morning, with the biggest, most powerful swell of the period, but it’s a commitment for experienced surfers only. The second week is all about potential, but the wind is going to be the deciding factor between a great session and a frustrating one.

Signing off, Rusty.

Read more