Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s happening at Ketewel.

Straight up, it’s a grim stretch ahead. We’ve got a solid 16-day window, but the surf quality is just not there for most of it. The underwater energy is there, sometimes massive, but the wind is the villain. For the first 12 days, it’s a relentless cross-onshore breeze at 12 mph, sometimes easing to 9 mph, but it’s still enough to mess things up. The waves are mostly in the 3 ft to 7 ft range, but the word "poor" is stamped all over it. The water’s sitting at 82°, which is about 2° warmer than normal for the time of year, so it’s a touch warmer than average, but that’s small comfort.

The best chance we get is a late run, and I mean late. We’re looking at the 30th of July into the 31st, and then a real standout on the 1st and 2nd of August. The wind finally shifts to a more favorable direction, starting with a "on" wind on the 30th, which is promising. The swell on the 30th is a long-period groundswell from the SSW at 19 seconds, with a combined energy of 1261 (moderate). That’s a clean, powerful pulse, but it’s a reef break and it’s inconsistent, so don’t expect a wave every minute. The 1st of August morning sees a 6 ft SSW swell at 18 seconds, with the energy cranking up to 2396 (strong). The afternoon bumps to 8 ft with 2979 energy (strong). That’s the biggest and most powerful of the forecast. The 2nd of August is solid too, with 7 ft and 7 ft SSW swell, energy still in the 2500-2600 range.

The drawback? The wind is still cross-onshore on those days, but it’s a bit lighter at 9 mph on the 2nd afternoon. The quality is described as "marginal" at best, not clean. Because it’s a reef, and the swell is over 7 ft, this is for experts only. The period is over 15 seconds, so it’s a long-period groundswell, which means the waves will have shape and power, but the wind is the spoiler. If you’re a kiter, this setup might be more interesting than for a paddle surfer, given the size and the cross-onshore.

For the first 11 days, honestly, don’t bother. It’s a blank run. The break is sheltered from the south swell, so we’re only getting a fraction of the energy, but the wind is the killer. It’s a reef break, and it’s inconsistent, so when it’s not working, it’s really not working. The 30th, 31st, and the 1st and 2nd of August are your best bets, but keep your expectations in check. The forecast is promising for a late pulse, but it’s a long way out, so don’t bank on it being perfect.

Rusty.

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