Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on offer for the only spot kicking around in the forecast.

Alright, so it's a bit of a slow start here. The only game in town is Ketewel, a sheltered reef set-up that likes the swell coming from the south. Over the next 16 days, we've got a real mixed bag on our hands. The water temp is sitting at 81°, which is bang on average for late August, so nothing to write home about there in terms of a freak warm or cold snap.

Looking at Saturday the 29th, we kick off with a solid 6 ft groundswell from the SSW, with a period of 15 seconds. There's a ton of energy behind it – we're talking 1400 units of energy – but the wind is coming from the SSE, so it's onshore. That onshore wind state means it's gonna be messy. The wave comment calls it marginal, and I'm not going to argue. It looks too choppy for a good time. This theme pretty much clobbers us right through the first week. We get decent sized SSW swells, often long-period groundswell (14-18 seconds), but the wind persistently stays from the SSE or SE, keeping that cross-onshore or onshore chop in the water. Most of these days get a "poor surf conditions" tag. Sunday the 30th is a write-off. Monday the 31st sees a beautiful 18-second period swell at 4 ft to 5 ft, which is a proper groundswell, but again that cross-onshore wind ruins the party. The energy is moderate (1225) but the quality isn't there. Tuesday the 1st of September bumps up to 6 ft with high energy (1990), but the moderate cross-onshore breeze just makes it a chore. It’s frustrating because the swell is there, but that wind is relentless.

We finally get a bit of a break in the breeze later on. The best of the early run looks like Saturday the 5th of September afternoon. The swell is 6 ft from the SSW, and the wind switches to a light onshore from the SSE. It's only classed as marginal, but with that clean 9 mph light breeze, it should be the cleanest looking surf we've seen in days. You might get some okay ones, but it’s still a bit of a gamble. The real standout doesn't arrive until Tuesday the 8th of September. The morning is still so-so, but in the afternoon we see a new swell direction – straight from the S at 6 ft with a 16-second period. That's a different line for the reef, and the combined energy jumps to a strong 3065. The wind remains a gentle cross-onshore, so it’s still a little bumpy, but that’s the best combo of size, period, and energy we’ve seen. Even Wednesday the 9th keeps a solid 7 ft swell, but the energy drops a touch, and it's back to onshore wind again.

Then we roll into a promising run. Thursday the 10th of September afternoon has another strong surge: 5 ft from the SSW, 16-second period, and 2159 energy. And then Sunday the 13th of September afternoon really turns it on. We're looking at a 7 ft SSW groundswell, 15-second period, and the biggest energy reading of the whole forecast at 3548. The wind is light and onshore, so it could actually be fairly clean if the tide plays ball. That’s the one to circle on the calendar for the experts – that is a lot of water moving around a sheltered reef.

So, what's the call? The early days are mostly a frustrating washout thanks to that persistent cross-onshore wind. If you’re desperate for a paddle, point at the afternoons of Saturday the 5th or Tuesday the 8th of September when the breeze is lightest. The true standout for the big stuff, if you’ve got the skill, is Sunday the 13th of September afternoon. That has the most grunt and the lightest wind window all forecast. It’s not going to be easy, but it’s the best of a tough lot.

Rusty.

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