Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, Ketewel. Let’s have a look what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

The truth is, it’s a pretty grim run for the foreseeable future. The pickings are real slim, and most of the time we’re dealing with poor surf conditions that just ain’t worth paddling out for. The water temp is sitting at 82°, which is about 1° warmer than usual for this time of year – nothing crazy, just a touch warmer than average.

The week kicks off, and honestly, there’s nothing to write home about. Sunday 12 July through to the end of the week, we’re stuck with a persistent cross-onshore wind from the ESE and SE, blowing at 9 to 12 mph. That chop is gonna ruin any chance of clean lines. Swell is small, around 3 ft to 4 ft from the SSW, but the energy is all over the place, and the wind just messes it up. The combined swell energy is weak to moderate (values between 369 and 1118), but it’s all for nothing with that wind. There’s a bit of a pulse on Tuesday 14 July with 6 ft to 6 ft SSW swell and a period of 17 to 18 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell, long period, but the cross-onshore wind makes it a messy, choppy affair. The energy jumps up to 2591, but it’s still a no-go for paddle surfing.

The middle of the week, from Wednesday 15 July to Saturday 18 July, is more of the same. Swell hovers around 4 ft to 6 ft, period drops back to 14-16 seconds, and the wind doesn’t let up. The combined energy is moderate (841 to 1590), but the surf is still poor. Not a single decent session in there.

Then we get to Sunday 19 July. The afternoon shows a bit of promise with a 4 ft SSW swell, but the period jumps right up to 20 seconds – that’s very long period groundswell. The combined energy is 1680, moderate, but that long period is tricky for a reef break. It can make the waves break too straight, and it’s not ideal for a spot like this. Still, with the cross-onshore wind, it’s not worth the hype.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is the window around Monday 20 July and Tuesday 21 July. On Monday morning, we see 7 ft SSW swell, period 17 seconds, and the combined energy is a strong 3094. The wind shifts to a more onshore direction in the afternoon, but it’s still not clean. This is a big swell, over 8 ft, so it’s expert-only territory. Ketewel is a reef break, and it’s inconsistent, so you’re rolling the dice. The crowds are sometimes there, but with conditions this average, it might be a quieter affair. The optimum swell direction from the guidance is S, and this swell is from the SSW, which is close but not ideal. The best of the bunch is probably the Monday afternoon, with the wind dropping to 9 mph and onshore, giving a slight chance of shape, but it’s still marginal.

The rest of the week, from Wednesday 22 July to Friday 24 July, is back to small, weak, and choppy. Swell around 3 ft to 4 ft, period 12-15 seconds, and the combined energy is weak to moderate (559 to 1245). The wind is onshore or cross-onshore, and it’s all poor.

Finally, the last weekend, Saturday 25 July and Sunday 26 July, brings another pulse. Saturday afternoon sees 8 ft SSW swell, period 16 seconds, and a strong combined energy of 3442. This is the biggest swell of the forecast, but it’s over 8 ft, so it’s expert-only again. The wind is cross-onshore at 12 mph, creating a messy, challenging wave. It’s a promising size, but the quality is just not there for a clean session.

Bottom line: This is a tough 16-day stretch for Ketewel. The wind is almost always wrong, the swell is either too small or too messy, and the consistent cross-onshore chop means you’re fighting a losing battle. If you’re a kite surfer, the setup with solid swell and strong wind might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, I’d be looking elsewhere. The forecast can always change, but right now, it’s a lot of waiting.

Rusty.

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