Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Ketewel. It’s a reef setup that needs a south swell and offshore winds to really sing, and we’ve got a long run of mostly cross-onshore or onshore winds and marginal conditions ahead. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing freaky there.

The first real chance to paddle out doesn’t even come until Thursday, September 17th, and even then it’s marginal at best. The morning brings a 6ft SSW swell with a period of 14 seconds, and the combined energy is strong at 1533. But that wind is cross-on from the SE at 12 mph, making things fairly choppy. Not ideal. Thursday afternoon is similar—6ft SSW, onshore wind—so no great improvement.

We then hit a dry spell from Friday the 18th through Saturday the 19th with poor surf conditions. The swell drops to 4ft to 5ft, still with onshore or cross-on wind, and energy levels fall into the low 800s and 700s. Not worth suiting up.

Sunday the 20th shows some life: a 6ft SSW swell with a 16-second period (long period groundswell) in the afternoon, combined energy of 1762. Wind is light from the SSE at 6 mph and onshore. The long period means the reef could shape up nicely, but the onshore wind is a bummer. It’s marginal, but it’s the best we’ve seen so far.

Monday the 21st is similar—6ft SSW, 14 seconds, light onshore winds. Still marginal. Then Tuesday the 22nd drops off again with poor conditions.

Wednesday the 23rd picks back up: 6ft SSW, 16-second period, 1619 energy, but cross-on wind in the morning. Another marginal window.

The standout period looks to be around Saturday, September 26th, through Monday, September 28th. On the 26th, we’ve got 7ft SSW swell with a 15-16 second period, and the energy jumps to 2171. Wind is onshore but light at 9 mph. It’s still marginal, but the size and long period could offer some proper reef waves for advanced surfers. Sunday the 27th sees a big jump: 10ft SSW swell with an 18-second period, and energy rockets to 5908 in the morning. That is a very strong, long-period groundswell. But at 10ft, this is expert territory only—too big for beginners, and the long period might make it shut down or get unruly on the reef, especially with cross-on wind. Monday the 28th still has a solid 8ft SSW swell, 16 seconds, but again cross-on wind.

Overall, there’s no day here with clean, offshore wind. The best bet is probably Sunday, September 27th, for big-wave experts who can handle a 10ft, 18-second SSW groundswell with onshore wind. It’s raw, powerful, and only for the experienced. If you’re not in that crew, the window from the 20th to the 21st offers the most manageable size with a long period, but the wind will still be onshore. It’s a frustrating outlook, but with that much consistent swell energy, it won’t stay poor forever. Keep an eye on the wind shifts.

Rusty.

Read more