Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I'm lookin' at the run ahead for Ketewel. Straight up, it's a tough outlook. This is a sheltered reef break that needs a clean window, and for the next 16 days, it's just not getting it. The water’s sitting at a warm 82°F, which is about average for this time of year, nothing out of the ordinary there.

The problem is the wind. We’ve got a solid, consistent SSW groundswell pushing in, with a long period of 14 to 16 seconds—sometimes even hitting 20 seconds later on. That's proper energy, with the combined swell energy regularly in the strong range. But that's where the good news ends. The wind is stuck on a cross-on from the ESE or SE, blowing at 9 to 16 mph, turning what could be a beautiful wave into a bumpy, choppy mess. It's a real shame because the swell is there, but the conditions are just poor.

There's a gap of no real surf on offer for the first week and a half. The first event that even gets a "marginal" nod is on Tuesday, July 14th, in the afternoon. The swell is solid at 6ft from the SSW, with a 17-second period, but the wind is still a moderate, choppy cross-on. It's a maybe, but you'd be wrestling the wind.

Wednesday, July 15th, is a write-off again with the same story. The next flicker of hope comes on Saturday, July 18th, in the morning. Swell is a bit smaller at 4ft, but the period is a clean 15 seconds. The wind is a lighter gentle breeze, but it's still cross-on. It's the best we've got, but it's still just a "marginal" call.

Then, on Sunday, July 19th, the afternoon shows a slight shift. We get a 5ft SSW swell with a 16-second period, and for the first time, the wind is reported as straight "on." That's a big change. While it's still not the clean offshore we’d want, an onshore wind at least lines up with the swell, and the "marginal" rating suggests it might be rideable. This is the standout moment in the whole forecast, but it's still a gamble.

Overall, for the next two weeks, Ketewel is a frustrating watch. The swell is there, but the wind is a constant enemy. Unless you're a masochist who loves paddling into choppy, bumpy lines, I'd be looking at other options or waiting for a change in the forecast. This is a spot that's inconsistent at the best of times, and these conditions are making it a no-go.

Rusty.

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