Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the table for your local stretch of coast.

Right now, the outlook is pretty grim for the next while. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor to marginal surf that won’t be worth paddling out for. The first real glimmer of something good is a long way off, and even then it comes with a big caveat. The water temp is sitting at about 80°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year—no surprises there.

The whole show starts on Saturday the 12th of September with a 4ft swell from the SSW, but the wind is cross-on and the whole setup is messy and choppy. That pattern just keeps rolling through. Swell heights bounce between 4ft and 6ft over the next few days, but it’s all cross-on or onshore breeze, and the wave quality is poor. The combined swell energy is moderate to strong, hitting over 2000 at times, but it’s wasted with the wind condition. Sunday the 13th, Monday the 14th, Tuesday the 15th, Wednesday the 16th, Thursday the 17th, Friday the 18th, Saturday the 19th, Sunday the 20th, Monday the 21st—none of it offers clean surf. It’s just day after day of chop.

Even when the swell gets a bit bigger around the 22nd and 23rd of September—with a 7ft to 8ft SSW swell and combined energy over 2700—the wind is still cross-on or onshore. It’s still not clean. That kind of energy could be pumping, but with the wind ruining it, it’s no good for a surfer. This size is also too big for beginners and starts to push into expert territory above 8ft, but the condition just isn’t there anyway.

The one true standout in this entire 16-day window is Friday the 25th of September. By Friday afternoon, the wind drops right off to glassy—dead calm. The swell is a solid 7ft from the SSW with a period of 15 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive 3898. That's a serious groundswell, very long period, which means the waves will have real shape and power. For beach breaks, a period that long can make things break too straight, but at this reef setup, the longer period is a big advantage. The wave comment says it’s excellent for experienced surfers, and that’s no joke—this is easily the best on offer.

Following that, Saturday the 26th of September has a 10ft SSW swell (combined energy 4494!), but the wind is back to cross-on and it’s marginal again. Sunday the 27th is similar, with a 7ft to 7ft SSW swell but the same cross-on breeze spoiling the party.

So here’s the bottom line: most of this forecast is a write-off. The only day that really gets the heart pumping is Friday the 25th. That afternoon glassy session with a 7ft groundswell is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s still about two weeks away, so keep an eye on it—long-range calls can be a bit fickle, but right now it looks like the only proper wave in the whole run.

Ketewel is a reef break, and it’s inconsistent by nature. When it comes on, it can be special, but you need the right window. Crowds can show up sometimes, so expect some company on that Friday if the forecast holds.

Rusty.

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