Ketewel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a good, hard look at what we’ve got coming down the pike for Ketewel (Bali) over the next couple of weeks. It’s not going to be easy – this is a sheltered reef that really needs the wind to play nice, and for the most part, it’s just not cooperating. The water temp is sitting around 80°F, which is bang on average for this time of year – nothing weird there.

Honestly, the outlook for the next 16 days is a tough one. For the first week and a half, the conditions are just holding this spot back. From Monday the 14th right through to about Friday the 25th of September, it’s a long stretch of onshore and cross-onshore winds. The swell is there – a solid, long-period groundswell coming out of the SSW, often pushing 5 ft to 6 ft with periods of 14 to 16 seconds. The wave energy is strong, meaning there is real power in the water. But with those moderate breezes, it’s choppy and messy. The forecast is calling it "poor" or "marginal" at best most days. There is no standout window here until the very end.

However, things get *very* interesting towards the last weekend of the month. The best bet, and the only real standout in this whole 16-day run, is Sunday the 27th of September. We’ve got a significant bump in size. The morning sees an 8 ft SSW swell at a very long 20 seconds. That is a heap of water moving. The afternoon pushes even bigger, with a 10 ft swell from the same direction. Now, because the period is so long (19-20 seconds), this is a true groundswell. At a beach break, that long period can make things close out, but Ketewel is a reef. It should handle it, holding the shape. The wind is still cross-on from the SE at 9 mph, which is a shame – it won’t be glassy. But the size and power are undeniable. This is for experienced surfers only. Anything over 8 ft is expert territory, and 10 ft at a reef with a bit of cross-breeze is not a place for the faint of heart. The Monday the 28th holds at 8 ft with a 17-second period, but again, that onshore flow keeps it from being pristine.

So, here’s the deal: the first 12 days are a write-off for good waves at Ketewel. The gap between quality surf is massive. You wait all the way until that Sunday the 27th. That is your one shot. It’s a big, powerful, long-period SSW groundswell. It’s not going to be perfect, but it’s going to be big and it will have push. That’s your only real look.

Rusty.

Read more