El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up. Rusty here.

It’s a bit of a slow start for the next week or so. We’ve got a long, drawn-out period of small, mostly messy surf ahead with very little to get excited about. The first real window of opportunity doesn’t show up until the 23rd of August, and even then, we’re talking about a window that’s really only for the brave.

Let’s start with the near-term. Friday the 14th through Sunday the 16th of August is uninspiring. We’re looking at weak, short-period swell from the SSE and ENE, with heights barely scraping 4 ft. The wind is a mess, mostly cross-shore and bumpy, with the combined energy of all swells being a weak 184 to 338 (moderate wave energy). The water is sitting at 50°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year, but you won’t be feeling it with the wind on it. Bottom line: it’s poor surf all around.

Next week, from Monday the 17th through to Thursday the 20th, is a write-off. The swell stays tiny, rarely cracking 4 ft, and the period is short. The wind stays onshore or cross-shore, keeping the surface lumpy or choppy. The combined energy of all swells directed here is a measly 79 to 326 (weak to moderate wave energy). It’s a real flat spell.

Then we have a glimmer. Friday the 21st of August sees a jump in swell, but it’s a short-period, wind-driven 8 ft to 8 ft SW swell. The wind is a problem, though. Friday morning has a fresh breeze, but by Friday afternoon it’s a near gale. The combined energy of all swells directed here jumps to 635 to 804 (moderate wave energy). This is a mess.

The real standout, and the only one worth talking about, is Sunday the 23rd of August. This is the best on offer. A proper S swell at 13 ft with a long period of 11 seconds is predicted. The combined energy of all swells directed here is a massive 3940 (strong to very strong wave energy). The wind is forecast to be a clean cross-offshore breeze from the WSW. El Muelle is a beach/pier setup that is exposed to this swell direction, and the optimum swell direction is SSE, so this S swell is close. The conditions are predicted to be wind and tide favorable, but the note says the swell is too big for this break. At 13 ft, this is a heavy, expert-only mission. It’s a big, powerful groundswell that will be a sight to behold, but you’ll need to be a solid surfer to handle it. Expect crowds to be likely here.

After that, the surf drops back down. Monday the 24th of August still has a solid 8 ft S swell, but the wind is a little stronger. Tuesday the 25th of August is smaller and onshore. The last few days of the month, from the 26th to the 29th, we’re back to small, weak ENE swell with clean cross-offshore winds, but it’s very ordinary. The combined energy of all swells directed here is 90 to 285 (weak to moderate wave energy). It’s not worth the paddle.

So, if you’re an expert, circle Sunday the 23rd of August. For everyone else, it’s a waiting game until the next pulse.

Rusty.

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