El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a classic tale of two extremes. The first few days are a total write-off for El Muelle, but hold onto your boards because the second half of the week and beyond is where the real action is. We’re looking at a solid run of clean, strong surf, especially for the more experienced crew.

The water here is sitting at a noticeably warm 51°F, which is a solid 4°F above normal for this time of year. You’ll notice the difference.

Friday, August 7th afternoon is a no-go. We’ve got 5ft swell from the SSW, but that 15 mph cross-off wind from the WNW is just making a mess of things. The wave energy is weak (157), and the conditions are poor. Forget it.

Saturday, August 8th ramps up fast but not in a good way for paddling. The morning brings 7ft from the WSW with a brutal 22 mph cross-off wind. The energy is already moderate (630). By the afternoon, the swell jumps to 12ft from the SW with a 28 mph wind. The energy is very strong (2188), but this is a beast for experts only. With that much wind and size, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Sunday, August 9th holds that same 12ft SW swell, but the wind is still a fresh 22 mph in the morning. The afternoon shifts to 10ft from the SSW with a nasty cross-shore wind that’s just going to chop it up. Again, big and messy.

Monday, August 10th is still sizeable but starting to settle. The morning has 8ft from the SSW, and while the wind is lighter (12 mph), it’s cross-shore and creating a lumpy cross-chop. The energy is strong (1882). The afternoon sees the same size but the period stretches to 12 seconds, a proper groundswell, with 2646 energy. The wind is still cross-shore, so it’s marginal.

Now, Tuesday, August 11th morning is your first real standout. The swell drops to a very manageable 6ft from the S, with a long 11-second period. The wind is a light 6 mph cross-off from the W. The wave energy is strong (1204), but the conditions are clean. This is “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers” territory. The water is clean, the swell has proper shape, and the paddle out won’t be a total war. This is the best on offer in the first week.

The rest of the week is a mixed bag. Wednesday, August 12th morning goes glassy with 4ft from the SSE. The wind is 3 mph from the NW, making it dead calm. The energy is moderate (555). The conditions are “glassy” – expect very good surf. The afternoon though, we get a 3ft swell with a very long 15-second period from the SSE. The energy is moderate (845), but that long period groundswell will be breaking straight at a beach break, so it’s a bit tricky. Thursday, August 13th keeps it small with 5ft from the S in clean conditions but the energy is low (466).

A quick gap: from Friday, August 14th through to Tuesday, August 19th, we have a long stretch of mostly poor, small surf. The swell drops to 2ft to 4ft, and the winds are mostly onshore or cross-shore. The energy is low (under 200). It’s a blank run, but these things happen.

The second week’s best bet is Thursday, August 20th. The morning brings 5ft from the E with an 11-second period and a 12 mph offshore wind from the NNW. The energy is moderate (658), and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” The wind is offshore, so it will be clean and lined up. The afternoon holds the same 5ft E swell with a lighter 9 mph cross-off wind. This is a solid, clean, proper day for El Muelle. Friday, August 21st morning is a repeat of that clean 5ft E swell. This is promising, but it’s a long way out, so keep an eye on the charts.

After that, things fade again into onshore slop for the weekend.

So, to wrap it up: Tuesday, August 11th morning is the absolute standout for the first week. Thursday, August 20th morning is the one to circle for the second week, but it’s a long-range call. For the rest of the time, the window is small.

Rusty.

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