El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey, Rusty here, looking at the extended forecast for the next two and a bit weeks around here.

Alright, it’s a bit of a mixed bag to start, honestly. There’s a fair bit of small, weak swell and messy wind in the first week, so patience is the name of the game. The real standout window is shaping up for El Muelle, especially mid-week next week, where things finally line up. Don't get too excited about the weekend beforehand, though; that wind swell on the 12th of September will be blown out and messy, despite the size.

Let’s run through it. Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th are pretty uninspiring with tiny, weak waves around 1.3ft to 1.6ft and very low energy (under 100). Friday morning will be glassy, which is nice, but there’s just nothing to ride. Saturday the 12th sees a big lump of wind swell jump up to 7.9ft (moderate combined energy of 683), but it’s blowing onshore and it’s short period, making for poor conditions. That one is for the experts only if you’re desperate, but frankly, it looks more like a kite-surfing day than a paddle session.

Sunday the 13th of September is where it gets interesting. We get a clean-up with an offshore breeze from the NNW at 15 mph. The swell drops to a manageable 3.9ft from the south, with a nice 10-second period, giving us gentle offshore and clean conditions. There’s moderate wave energy there (330). It’s not the biggest day, but it will be the best looking surf of the first week. This is for intermediate surfers, and with the clean conditions, it’s a solid call.

Monday the 14th drops right back off in size, so don’t expect much. Then Tuesday the 15th gets ugly again with a strong, short-period south swell hitting 7.9ft, but it’s howling onshore at 28 mph. Another day for the kite crew or the hardcore.

Now, here’s the main event. Wednesday the 16th of September is the standout in the whole run. We’ve got a consistent 5.9ft south swell with a 10-11 second period, which is proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is strong at over 800. The wind goes cross-offshore from the north-northwest at a gentle 9 mph, leaving the waves clean. This is the pick of the bunch – expect very good surf conditions (score 3/5). It’s a bit too big for beginners, but perfect for experienced intermediates and up.

Thursday the 17th still has good, clean surf from the same south groundswell, coming in at 3.9ft, but the wind is a touch stronger. It’s still a solid morning.

After that, the second week gets more scattered. We get a few fun windows, like Saturday the 19th morning with a clean 3.6ft southwest swell and offshore wind, but the energy is lower. Then Tuesday the 22nd morning looks clean again with a 4.3ft south-southwest swell and light wind. There's even a pulse of longer period south swell on the 23rd of September, but it's going to be blown by a strong offshore wind, making it hard to paddle into and a bit tricky.

The water temperature is about average for this time of year at El Muelle, so nothing unusual to report there.

For the second week, keep an eye on the 22nd of September morning for a clean session, and maybe the 24th of September morning for a smaller clean wave. Nothing that matches that Wednesday the 16th peak, though.

Alright, that’s the story for the next couple of weeks. See you in the water.

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