El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna be straight with you—this outlook for the next couple of weeks is a bit of a slow burn. There’s a proper gap at the start with no real surf to get excited about, so we’re waiting a few days for anything worth paddling out for. The first real chance comes on Tuesday the 21st of July, but it’s nothing to write home about.

Alright, let’s get into it. The water at El Muelle is sitting at a warm 52°F – that’s 4°F warmer than usual for this time of year, so it’s noticeably warmer than normal. Feels good, but the surf sure doesn’t. From Saturday the 18th right through to Monday the 20th, it’s poor. Cross-on winds, choppy, and weak energy. The combined energy on Saturday the 18th is only 260 (moderate), and it’s just not doing anything for us. Sunday the 19th morning gets a bit of onshore wind and a bigger 5ft swell from the SSW, but the period is 10 seconds and the energy is 565 (moderate-strong) – still poor conditions, rain, and a mess. Skip it.

Now, Tuesday morning the 21st of July is the first time you could even think about it. Swell drops to 2ft from the ENE, but the wind is glassy – dead calm, slight air. That’s a major positive for clean conditions. The energy is 183 (moderate) and it’s a long 9-second period, but the waves are just surfable, very ordinary. You’d be out there for a knee-high, clean paddle, but it’s not going to thrill you. The afternoon gets choppy again.

Wednesday the 22nd afternoon is a bit more promising. Swell 3ft from the ENE, period 8 seconds, combined energy 216 (moderate), and a light cross-offshore breeze from the NNE. That’s clean. The forecast says “expect good surf conditions.” It’s still small, but if you’re desperate for a clean wave, that’s the call. Thursday the 23rd also has clean conditions, with a light offshore from the NW in the afternoon, 2ft from the SSW, period 8 seconds, energy 159 (moderate). Again, small, but clean.

Friday the 24th is a write-off – cross-on, chop, and a short 6-second period swell at 4ft. Energy 234 (moderate). Not worth it.

The best option on offer in the whole 16-day window comes at the very end. El Muelle on Sunday the 2nd of August. The afternoon is looking mint: 3ft swell from the S, 10-second period, combined energy 294 (moderate), and a light offshore wind from the NW. That’s clean, glassy-ish conditions. The forecast says “expect good surf conditions.” That’s your standout. It’s a bit far out, so take it with a grain of salt, but it’s the one to circle on the calendar. The morning of the 2nd is also clean with a 4ft swell from the S, 11-second period, energy 327 (moderate-strong), but a moderate cross-offshore breeze – still good, but the afternoon is better.

One thing to note: the water temperature anomaly is only given for the first record, so I can’t say for the rest of the period. The surf is exposed to the swell here, and it’s a beach/pier setup. Crowds are “sometimes” an issue, so keep an eye out.

Overall, don’t rush out for the first week. The 22nd and 23rd of July offer clean, small waves. The real highlight is Sunday the 2nd of August – that’s the one to aim for. Everything else is either poor, choppy, or too small to get excited about. The setup is more interesting for a paddle than a kite, but with the bigger, windier days later in the month, keep an eye on the 29th and 30th of July for a stronger swell (7ft on the 29th afternoon, period 6 seconds, energy 439 (moderate-strong)) – that’s short-period, messy, and cross-shore, so it’s not great for surfing but could be fun for kiteboarding if that’s your thing.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on the 2nd of August.

Rusty.

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