El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s get into it. This is a pretty grim few weeks ahead for El Muelle, and I’m not going to sugarcoat it. We’ve got a 16-day window and for the most part, it’s a lot of mush and chop with very little reward. The first real chance of anything half-decent doesn't show up until the 25th, so we're looking at nearly a week and a half of marginal to poor conditions to start.

The first session to even consider is on the morning of Sunday the 16th. It’s still only about 4ft of ENE swell, but it’s clean and the west-southwest breeze is light. It’s just surfable, nothing to write home about, but the water is 50° which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The energy is weak-ish at 180, so you’ll be working for every wave. Not a standout, just a step up from the rubbish that surrounds it.

Then we go dead again for days. Onshore and cross-onshore winds just ruin everything, and on the 22nd we get a big pulse of SSW swell – 8ft and building to 10ft by the afternoon. The energy is massive, hitting 2671, which is serious juice. But that’s a problem. It’s way too big for this break, and the wind is a fresh cross-shore. That’s expert-only, and even then, it's just a mess. It’s more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The next day, the 23rd, the swell is still over 7ft and lumpy. Not for the faint-hearted.

Now, look ahead. The following week is where we get our real window. The 25th is your best bet for the whole period. It’s clean with a light west-northwest cross-offshore wind, the swell is back down to 5ft from the SSE with a solid 10-second period, and the energy is a decent 416. This is the one to circle. It’s the best overall combo of size, shape, and clean conditions we get. The swell direction is also right in line with what this break wants.

The morning of the 26th is also worth a mention – it’s 3ft from the SE, glassy with a light offshore from the NNW. It’s small but it’ll be perfect and clean. A longboard day. The afternoon picks up a bit with a gentle cross-off breeze, but the size is still small.

After that, we slide back into mediocrity. The 27th, 28th, and 29th all offer similar knee-to-waist high waves with cleaner conditions, but the energy drops and the winds are a bit more side-on. Not terrible, but nothing compared to the 25th. So, if you’re itching for a paddle, get out there on the 25th. It’s the standout, and the only real swell of the window that matches up with good wind. Keep expectations low for the rest, but at least we know it’s not dead forever.

Rusty

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