El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's look at what we've got for El Muelle.

Bottom line? It's a pretty bleak 16-day window. We're going to have a long, slow grind with very little to get excited about. For the first week and a half, the surf is just too small and weak to be worth a paddle. The first real chance at anything rideable doesn't show up until around the 22nd of July, but even that comes with some serious warnings.

Let's break it down. We start off on Sunday the 12th with a weak 3ft east swell creeping in at 13 seconds, but it's ruined by a cross-onshore wind. It’s just choppy and messy. This pattern of small, short-period east swells and poor winds continues for days. The wave energy is barely registering, mostly values under 200 (weak), with a few brief bumps into the low hundreds (moderate). You'll see clean conditions here and there, like Monday morning the 13th with a 4ft swell, but the swell period is short and the wave comment just calls it "marginal." Not worth suiting up for.

The real tease is the 19th and 20th of July. The wind turns truly ugly, with strong onshore and cross-onshore winds hitting over 22 mph. For a beach/pier setup, that’s a no-go zone for surfing. Honestly, with those winds and that choppy, messy water, a kite surfer would be having a much better time than a paddle surfer.

Things change, but not for the better, around the 22nd of July. We get a bomb of a swell hitting. Wednesday morning the 22nd we see a 12ft SSW swell with a combined energy reading of 2860 (very strong wave energy). That's a massive jump. But here’s the catch: that’s serious, heavy water. Over 8ft, it’s for experts only. The wind is blowing strong offshore, which will make for an incredibly raw and powerful face. This isn't a beginner wave; it's a big, scary, powerful day for experienced chargers only. The period is 9 seconds, so it's not a classic long-period groundswell, but there's just a mountain of water moving. The afternoon sees a strong cross-shore chop, ruining the clean morning. The 23rd of July stays big, around 7ft to 8ft, but the wind stays cross-onshore, making it a choppy, messy close-out.

After that, it fades out quickly. The last week of July drops back into the tiny, weak stuff with poor conditions. There is one bright spot on the 26th of July – a morning with a tiny 2ft swell from the east and clean offshore wind. It's practically flat, but it might be a glassy, knee-high option for a longboard if you're desperate.

The Standout
If you are an expert surfer looking for a challenge, the Wednesday morning of the 22nd of July at El Muelle is your window. That 12ft swell from the SSW won't be for the faint-hearted, but with the offshore wind, it could offer some serious, hollow waves for those who can handle them. For everyone else, the rest of the forecast is one to sleep in for.

Stay patient, go for a swim, and check back closer to the time.

Rusty.

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