El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The long-range looks are in, and honestly, there’s a bit of a wait before things really fire up. We’ve got a couple of standout windows, but you’ll need to pick your moments.

The first real call is for the morning of Sunday, August 9th. There’s a solid pulse of swell, pushing 12ft, out of the southwest. The energy is strong, with a combined reading of 1874. The wind is cross-offshore, which should keep things relatively clean, but here’s the catch: this swell is just too big for El Muelle. The report calls it out, and I agree. It’s an expert-only day, and even then, it’s going to be a beast. The water is running at 51°, which is a couple of degrees warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a nice little bonus.

The rest of that first week is a bit of a mixed bag. Conditions stay lumpy and onshore through Monday and into Tuesday morning, with the swell dropping to a more manageable 6-8ft, but the wind is cross-shore, creating some chop. Tuesday morning, the 11th, sees a cleaner window with light winds and a 6ft south swell, but it’s not a standout. The real gem is Wednesday morning, the 12th. The wind goes glassy, and we have a clean 6ft south swell. It’s not big, but it will be perfect. The energy is moderate at 933, and the light air will make it feel like a lake. That’s a good one for the log.

After that, things go quiet. Poor conditions and weak swells dominate from Thursday the 13th through the weekend. The energy drops off a cliff, and the wind is mostly cross or cross-on. It’s a write-off for a few days. The only hint of life is Saturday afternoon, the 16th, with a 6ft ENE swell and a light offshore, but the period is short and the energy is weak. It’s a maybe.

Then we get a big pulse to close out the week. Monday the 17th sees the swell jump back up to 10ft plus, but the wind is onshore and messy. The afternoon brings an 12ft ESE swell with a combined energy of 2636, but again, it’s too big for this break. The direction is off, and it’s just not going to be any fun. This is a case where the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The second week starts with a cleaner but smaller window. Tuesday morning the 18th has a 7ft SE swell with a fresh offshore wind. It’s clean, but the energy is moderate and the direction isn't ideal. The period is short, so it might be a bit crumbly. After that, the swell fades away into tiny, weak conditions for the rest of the week.

The final standout is on Monday the 24th. We see a 8ft south swell with moderate offshore wind in the morning, and the energy is strong again, reading 1306. It drops to a 8ft SSE in the afternoon with light winds. This is another expert-level day, but the conditions look much better. The direction is more favorable, and the longer period (10-11 seconds) should give it some punch. This is one to keep an eye on, but it’s a long way out, so treat it as promising but not locked in.

Overall, the pickings are slim. The standout is Wednesday morning, the 12th, for clean, glassy conditions on a moderate swell. The other one is the Monday the 24th, but it’s for experienced surfers only and a long way off. Keep your expectations in check, and pick your windows.

Rusty

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