El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the only spot on the menu for the next couple of weeks – El Muelle.

El Muelle is a beach/pier setup that’s exposed to the swell, and it’s a consistent one so we’ll always have something to talk about. The water temp is sitting pretty average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

The next few days are a real struggle. Thursday and Friday see a small, weak south swell with a combined energy of (145) dropping to (24), and the wind is either cross-off or strong cross, making for some pretty ordinary conditions. Honestly, it’s not worth paddling out for. We then hit a bit of a lull through to the weekend where the swell picks up a bit on Saturday morning (4 ft), but with a strong 25 mph wind, it’s just messy. The whole first week is a write-off for quality surf.

Now, hold onto your board, because we’ve got a real standout brewing. Sunday, the 2nd of August is the first time we see something worth setting the alarm for. The morning is glassy – I mean, dead flat calm – with a 4 ft SSW swell and a nice 9-second period. The combined energy is a solid (617), and the forecast says "expect very good surf conditions." That’s a proper window. The afternoon gets a bit bigger, with a 7 ft S swell and a long 12-second period, pushing the energy up to (1179), but the wind swings to a moderate cross-off, so it will still be clean but a bit more juice. That morning session is the one to aim for.

After that, we get a bit of a mixed bag. Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th see some 5 ft to 6 ft swells, but with cross-shore winds and a short period (7-8 seconds) on Tuesday, it’s going to be choppy and a bit of a lottery. The energy is moderate (around 450-580), but it’s not going to be pretty.

The next clear winner is a long way off, but it looks promising. Sunday, the 9th of August – about a week and a half away – we get a tidy 4 ft S swell with a light breeze and glassy conditions in the afternoon. The energy is (275) and (276) for the morning and arvo, with "expect good surf conditions" on the cards. That’s a solid, clean day.

Then, hold onto your hats again. Monday, the 10th of August is a potential bomb. The morning sees a 5 ft SSE swell with a 10-second period and a combined energy of (907) – that’s strong – and the wind is a gentle offshore. It’s looking very good. But the afternoon is the real beast: an 8 ft SSE swell with a massive 16-second period, driving the energy up to (3486). That’s a serious groundswell, and while it’s going to be clean with a moderate offshore, the size and period mean it’s an expert-only session. It’s a high tide, long period wave that will be closing out at the beach, so it’s not for the faint of heart. The forecast gives it a high score, so it’s the standout, but it’s a big, heavy wave.

The final few days of the outlook fade out. The 11th and 12th of August see some 7 ft to 5 ft swells, but with cross-onshore winds and a bit of chop, it’s going to be a struggle. The energy drops from (1140) to (560), and the ratings are low. Not the best.

The bottom line: The first week is a washout. The absolute best windows are the morning of Sunday, 2nd August (clean, 4 ft, glassy) and the afternoon of Monday, 10th August (very big, 8 ft with a 16-second period, for experts only). The 9th of August is also a solid, clean day. Don’t bother before the 2nd.

Rusty.

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