El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Well, I’ll be honest with you – the first week or so is a real struggle. We’ve got a pretty big gap with hardly anything worth paddling out for. The first real glimmer of hope doesn’t show up until Sunday the 13th, and even then it’s just a taste.

The Pattern

The opening days are a write-off. Thursday and Friday (10th and 11th) are small and weak, with combined wave energy barely cracking 99 (99) and 67 (67) – that’s barely a ripple. Saturday the 12th sees a spike in size, with a 8ft SSE swell, but it’s got a short period of 8 seconds and onshore winds, making it a total mess. The energy jumps to 725 (725), but with those conditions, you’d be fighting a washing machine. Not for paddling, mate.

That changes on Sunday the 13th. We get a clean window. El Muelle is the only game in town, and it finally delivers. The morning kicks off with a 4ft S swell at 11 seconds, and the wind is light offshore from the NW. That’s clean, glassy conditions. The combined energy is a solid 450 (450). It’s not a monster, but it’s got shape. The afternoon holds up with a 4ft SSE swell and still offshore breeze. This is the standout for that first week. The water temp is sitting at 51°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you’ll be comfortable.

The Mid-Range

Monday the 14th is a letdown. The wind is howling offshore at 19 mph, but the swell drops right off to 2ft. Too small to bother with. Then Tuesday the 15th brings a jump in size again – 7ft to 8ft S swell – but it’s accompanied by a strong cross-onshore wind. The energy is massive (884 on the afternoon), but it’s a messy, lumpy, blown-out mess. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

The Second Week Standout

Now, this is where it gets interesting. The real standout of the whole outlook is Wednesday the 16th. The morning brings a 6ft SSE swell with a 10-second period, and the wind is a clean cross-offshore from the north. The combined energy is a hearty 832 (832). The surf will be solid, powerful, and clean. It’s big enough to be fun but not out of control. The afternoon is a bit smaller at 5ft, but still clean. This is the best day on offer, hands down. Get it while it’s good.

The Far Outlook

After the 16th, things get patchy. Thursday the 17th is still clean but the swell drops. Then we hit another dry spell. From Friday the 18th through Sunday the 20th, the swell is tiny and the energy is pitiful, all below 100. It’s flat.

Then, on Monday the 21st of September, the forecast throws a big one at us. The model shows a 10ft SW swell, with wind and tides favorable, but the combined energy is a massive 1446 and 1789. That is a serious amount of water. The problem is, it’s predicted to be too big for El Muelle. It’s a beach/pier break, and with that much energy, it’s going to be completely out of control and dangerous. Unless you’re a top-tier expert, sit this one out.

The Final Hope

The tail end of the forecast looks promising but less certain. Tuesday the 22nd shows a 6ft SSE swell with clean cross-offshore winds, and the energy is 1155 and 975. That’s a solid, clean day. Then Wednesday the 23rd morning has a 6ft S swell at 12 seconds (long period groundswell) with a clean offshore wind. The energy is 978. That would be a great session, but it’s a long way out. Expect good surf, but keep an eye on it.

So, to sum it up: Sunday the 13th is your first decent session, and Wednesday the 16th is the absolute best bet. The second week has a couple of promising days, but nothing is locked in. Stay patient.

Rusty.

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