El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surf’s up… or it’s trying to be. Let’s break down what’s happening at El Muelle over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, the ocean is running warmer than usual for this time of year, about 4°F above average. That’s a noticeable bump, so you might want to leave the thick rubber at home.

The opening days are a bit of a grind. Monday afternoon kicks things off with a cross-onshore breeze and a weak, jumbled 5ft SE swell. The energy is moderate at best (519), and it’s messy and not worth getting excited about. Tuesday cleans up a touch with lighter winds, but the swell drops to around 4ft and the period is short, so it’s still pretty average.

Wednesday is small and weak, and by Thursday the whole thing just fades into onshore chop. You’re looking at a real lull here, a few days of nothing that’s worth paddling out for.

Then things get interesting. Friday morning, a big pulse of WSW groundswell hits, but it’s accompanied by a near-gale-force cross-offshore wind. The energy is massive (2369), but it’s not rideable for most. Saturday is the big one. The swell peaks at 15ft with a long 10-second period from the WSW, and the energy is through the roof (4154), but it’s just too big for this spot. This is expert-only, and even then, it’s risky. The wind is clean, but the size is the story.

We’ll still be dealing with solid, powerful swell on Sunday and into Monday, but the winds turn onshore and chop it up, so it’s not a good call. You’re better off waiting for the energy to settle.

And it does settle, right around Tuesday the 11th. That’s the standout of the whole period. Early morning you’ve got a clean, glassy 5ft SSE groundswell with an 11-second period. The energy is solid (977), and it’s going to be clean. This is your window. The swell direction is a touch off the optimum, but the combination of size, period, and glassy conditions makes it the best we’re going to see for a while. It’s a Monday, so hopefully the crowds aren’t too bad, but you never know.

The rest of that week is smaller, in the 3ft range, with mixed winds. There’s a glimmer on Thursday morning with a clean 3ft S swell, but it’s nothing special.

The second week is pretty quiet. The swell just fades out and the onshore winds take over. The energy drops, the waves get small, and it’s not worth your time. Around the 18th there’s a hint of a rebound, with some cleaner, cross-offshore winds and a small 4ft ENE groundswell, but it’s a long way out and nothing you should book your life around.

So, bottom line: the big Saturday event is for the brave and the crazy. The real gem is Tuesday morning, the 11th. Mark it down.

Rusty.

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