El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mates, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what the next couple of weeks are serving up for us.

The short version is this: we’ve got a slow start, a couple of decent windows in the middle of the week, and then it mostly fades out again. The first real surf on offer is Monday morning, but it’s not going to be pretty. The water is sitting at 51°, which is a solid 4° warmer than normal for this time of year—that’s a notable jump, so you might not need the thickest hood.

So, Monday the 10th kicks things off with a 8ft SW swell at El Muelle, but the wind is a cross-shore mess at 25 km/h, and the energy is strong but all over the place. It’s a junky, lumpy day, not worth paddling out for unless you’re desperate for a fight. The conditions don't improve much by the afternoon, with a similar 8ft swell and a cross-breeze.

Tuesday the 11th is where it starts to get interesting. The swell drops to 6ft from the south, and the wind swings around to a light cross-offshore in the morning. That’s the kind of clean-up we need. The energy is still solid, and it’s looking like a proper session for the experienced crew. The afternoon adds a touch more size at 6ft, but a cross-on wind kicks in, so the morning is the pick.

Wednesday the 12th morning is the standout of the first week. The wind goes completely glassy, dead calm, and we’ve got a clean 6ft S swell at 10 seconds. The energy is moderate, but the surface is going to be like a mirror. This is the one to circle. The afternoon drops off to 4ft and goes onshore, so definitely get out early.

From Thursday the 13th through the weekend, it’s a slide into the doldrums. Swell drops to chest-high or less, the wind turns onshore or cross-shore, and everything gets choppy. There’s a run of poor to marginal days. The 17th and 18th see a bit more size, but the wind is strong and cross-off, and the swell period is short and junky. It’s not worth the effort.

The next real glimmer is on Wednesday the 19th. A 4ft SSE swell with a moderate offshore wind early in the morning. It’s clean, but it’s small. The energy is weak, so it’s a longboard or a fish kind of day. The afternoon gets blown out by a fresh offshore.

After that, it’s pretty much a dead zone. The 20th drops to knee-high, and while the 22nd has a clean 3ft ENE swell, it’s still small. The final few days, from the 23rd onwards, are a write-off with strong winds and messy seas. The 25th has some 5-5ft S swell, but it’s accompanied by a 45 km/h cross-off wind, which is more about survival than style.

So, the call is: get out Wednesday morning the 12th. That’s your best bet. Tuesday morning the 11th is a close second. The rest is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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