El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee, 'cause this one's a bit of a slog. Rusty here, and I'm not gonna sugarcoat it—the first ten days or so look pretty grim. A whole lot of nothing, or at least nothing worth paddling out for. Winds are all wrong, swells are small and messy, and the wave comments are a broken record of "poor surf conditions."

Tuesday, July 14th starts us off with a weak 3ft ESE swell, but that cross-off breeze from the NNW at 12 mph is just killing it. Water's a touch warmer than usual at 51°F, but that's about it. The energy is weak (136).

Then we hit a real dead zone. Wednesday, July 15th through to Sunday, July 19th is all tiny, knee-high junk, with swells barely reaching 1ft to 3ft. Winds are cross-off or cross-shore, and the energy is mostly pathetic (20 to 261). The only slight flicker is Thursday, July 16th morning, with a 3ft ENE swell at a short 7 seconds, and a light breeze (6 mph) from the north—still cross-off, but it's the only time the score isn't a zero. Hardly worth the effort.

Monday, July 20th through to Sunday, July 26th is more of the same. Swell stays small, usually under 3ft, with a few pulses up to 4ft or 5ft on Saturday, July 25th and Sunday, July 26th. The problem is the wind. On the 25th, we get a 4ft S swell, but it's cross-onshore. The energy jumps to strong (394) briefly, but it's still "poor conditions." On the 26th, we get a 5ft SSE swell, but the wind is a moderate cross-shore breeze from the NE (12-16 mph). The energy is strong (330-380), but the wave comment is still "poor." This setup looks more like a kiteboarding day than a surfing day, to be honest.

Then, finally, a glimmer. Monday, July 27th sees the swell holding at 5ft from the SSE, with a 9-second period and a gentle cross-shore breeze (9 mph). The energy is strong (378) and the comment edges up to "marginal." It's still not great, but it's the first non-zero score in days.

The only real standout, the one session you'd actually set an alarm for, is Tuesday, July 28th. Early morning, the wind goes completely glassy (0 mph from the SSE). The swell is a clean 3ft from the SSE, with a very long 14-second period, packing a massive 663 energy. The wave comment is "expect very good surf conditions." This is a proper groundswell. The direction is spot on the optimum (SSE), so the lines should be clean. With that long period, it might be a bit straight at this beach/pier setup, but glassy conditions make it the pick of the entire 16-day window. The afternoon fades with a cross-on wind, but that morning is the one.

Wednesday, July 29th is a step back, with a much smaller 2ft SSE swell and a strong 22 mph cross-off breeze.

So, there you have it. The best on offer is a short, glassy window on the morning of Tuesday, July 28th at El Muelle. Get up early if you can. The rest of the run is a long, flat, windy wait for that one clean session.

Rusty.

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