El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Alright, let’s be straight with you: the outlook for the next 16 days is a bit of a mixed bag, and honestly, there’s a lot of mediocrity to wade through. The best session in the whole window is a short-lived window, and after that, the surf turns pretty average for a long stretch.

We’re looking at El Muelle (beach/pier) for the whole forecast. The water is sitting at 51°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – not a big deal, but you’ll notice it’s a bit more comfortable than usual.

The only real standout comes on the morning of Monday, July 13. We’ve got a clean-looking setup with a 4ft swell rolling in from the ESE at a nice 12-second period. The combined energy is moderate (388), and the wind is light and offshore from the NNW, so the face should be glassy and the waves will have some shape. This is a groundswell, so the gaps between sets will be a bit longer, making the paddle out a little easier. This is the pick of the bunch – get it while it’s good.

The rest of the first week is a write-off. Thursday July 9 through to Sunday July 12 are all poor surf conditions, with a mix of cross-on to onshore winds and sub-3ft swell. The combined energy is weak to moderate (277 to 482), but the wind state just ruins it.

After that Monday morning session, the surf drops off sharply. From Monday afternoon July 13 right through to the end of the window on July 24, the options are either marginal or poor. The swell size stays small, the period drops short, and the wind is almost always cross-on or onshore.

There’s a brief pulse on the 20th and 21st of July with a 6ft to 6ft swell from the S and SSE, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore or cross-onshore, so it’s just a choppy, messy mess. The combined energy gets up to moderate (504), but the quality is poor. For a spot like this, with a beach/pier setup and that much wind, it’s honestly more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

For the rest of the second week, from July 22 onwards, the swell drops back to 2ft to 5ft, period is short, and the wind stays onshore. It’s a long, dry spell. The surf is just not good enough to recommend.

So, for the whole 16-day window: your one clear window is the morning of Monday, July 13. After that, it’s a long run of poor conditions. That’s the reality of it.

Rusty.

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