El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here, and we’ve got a wild ride ahead for the next couple of weeks at El Muelle. The swell forecast is a bit of a rollercoaster, with some huge energy and some real doldrums, so let’s break it down.

We’re starting off this Saturday afternoon, August 8th, with a massive pulse of swell. We’re looking at a solid 12 ft SW swell, but it’s packing a massive 2104 (strong wave energy) punch. The wind is a cross-off from the WSW at 28 mph. Look, the size and the wind are going to make it a real handful, and the data tells us it’s simply too big for this spot. This one is for absolute experts only, if anyone is mad enough to try.

Sunday, August 9th, keeps that same 12 ft SW swell rolling in the morning, with 19 mph W cross-off winds. Still way too big and on the edge of manageable. The energy is still high at 1874. By the afternoon, the swell drops a touch to 8 ft SW, but the wind swings to a strong cross-shore from the SSW at 25 mph, making a total mess of things. The surf quality is poor.

Monday, August 10th, sees the swell settle to around 8-8 ft from the SSW, but we’ve got cross and cross-onshore winds all day. The energy is still moderate at 1688 and 2376, but the conditions are marginal at best. It’s a write-off for a good session.

Now, here’s the real standout. Tuesday morning, August 11th. The swell drops to a much more manageable 6 ft from the S, with a period of 11 seconds, and the wind turns glassy from the WNW at just 3 mph. That’s a clean, cross-off breeze. The energy is still moderate at 1250, and the report calls it excellent conditions for experienced surfers. This is the window. Get out there early for some clean, lined-up waves before the afternoon wind shifts.

The rest of that week into the weekend (Aug 12th-16th) is a real slow-down. Swell sizes drop under 5 ft, and the energy falls away to weak or low-moderate levels (843 and lower). Winds are a mix of onshore and light cross-off, but the surf quality is poor to marginal. There are a couple of moments on Friday morning, August 14th, with a 4 ft S swell and light N cross-off winds, but the energy is very weak at 305. It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about.

Then we hit a real lull. From Saturday, August 15th, through to Tuesday, August 18th, the swell energy drops into the double digits (94-161) and the conditions are consistently poor. There’s a lot of onshore wind and very small, weak swell.

However, a massive pulse comes back in on Tuesday afternoon, August 18th, with a 10 ft SSW swell (period 11s) and a strong energy reading of 2412. The wind is a gentle cross-onshore from the ESE at 9 mph. Again, the data says it’s too big for this break, so that’s a no-go for paddle surfing unless you’re a pro. It’s a big, powerful, and dangerous swell.

After that, the surf drops off again. Wednesday and Thursday (Aug 19-20) see 4-7 ft swell with cross-on winds and marginal to poor conditions. Friday, August 21st, has a small 3 ft SSE swell with a clean cross-off wind, but the energy is weak. The final weekend (Aug 22-23) is back to small, weak, and choppy conditions. Not much to get excited about.

So, to wrap it up: The best and most reliable surf in this 16-day window is Tuesday morning, August 11th. The 6 ft S swell with glassy offshores at El Muelle is your ticket. It’s not huge, but it’s clean and rideable. The big swells on the 8th and 18th are just too much for this spot. Everything else is a gamble with weak swell or poor winds.

Stay frothy, and don’t miss that Tuesday morning window.

- Rusty

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