El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for El Muelle over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the first week and a half of this forecast is pretty grim. We’re looking at a solid stretch of poor surf conditions from Sunday the 19th right through to the end of July. There’s a bit of swell around, but the wind is just all wrong, mostly cross-on or onshore, and it’s making a mess of things. The water temp is sitting at a very unusual 52°F – that’s a massive 4°F warmer than average for this time of year, so you won’t need the thickest wetsuit, but you’ll need patience. The combined wave energy stays moderate at best, with values like 419 (Sunday afternoon) and 219 (Monday morning), but it’s not doing you any favours with the wind.

The real problem is that from July 19th through to the 31st, nearly every session is rated as poor or marginal. There are a few clean mornings with cross-offshore winds around the 23rd to the 27th, but the swell is tiny – 1ft to 2ft – and just doesn’t have the power. The combined energy drops to as low as 22 on the 28th afternoon. That’s weak. It’s a real dry spell.

Then, as we flip the calendar to August, things start to look up. Saturday the 1st and Sunday the 2nd are the standouts in this whole outlook. We’ve got a nice ESE groundswell moving in with a period of 11 to 13 seconds, which is proper long-period energy. The swell height is around 3ft, and the key here is the wind: it’s offshore from the NW, light to gentle breeze. That’s glassy, clean conditions. The combined energy jumps to 381 on Saturday afternoon and 458 on Sunday morning – that’s moderate to strong energy, and it’s gonna feel good. The swell direction from the ESE is a perfect match for El Muelle’s optimum SSE direction, so the wave quality should be there.

This is the best on offer, no doubt. Saturday August 1st morning through Sunday August 2nd afternoon. It’s a bit of a wait, but it’s worth holding out for. The surf will be clean, lined up, and with that long period, expect some nice shaped waves. It’s not huge, so it’s good for intermediates and up. Crowds are possible here, especially when it’s clean, so get in early.

The Monday the 3rd still has offshore wind and a decent 3ft swell, though the wind picks up to a moderate breeze and the energy drops a bit.

So, the short story: suffer through the first week and a half, then get ready for a proper session on the 1st and 2nd of August. The forecast is more reliable that close in, so I’m confident about that weekend.

Rusty.

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