El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break this down for the next couple weeks at El Muelle (beach/pier). It’s a slow start, but if you’re willing to wait, there’s some good stuff comin’.

We start Tuesday, July 28 with a weak and messy setup. Swell’s a tiny 0.9m from the SSW with a short 9-second period, and the combined energy is only 158 (moderate). The wind’s cross-off but the surf is just poor, so don’t even bother. Wednesday, July 29 is a little cleaner in the morning with a light W wind, but still only 0.9m and 8-second period, same energy – it’s surfable but nothing special.

Thursday, July 30 and Friday, July 31 are a washout. Swell drops to 0.4m and 0.3m, energy crashes to 36 and 19 (weak), and while the wind stays clean, there’s just no push. A couple of flat days.

Saturday, August 1 sees a spike in size – 1.2m in the morning, 1.8m in the afternoon – but the wind screams from the SW at 40-45 km/h. The afternoon period is a shocker at 6 seconds and energy hits 401 (strong), but it’s a total mess with strong cross-shore chop. That’s more for kite surfers than paddle surfers.

Sunday, August 2 is where things start to look up. Morning brings 1.1m from the SSW, 7-second period, 231 energy (moderate), and light WSW wind keeping it clean. The comment says “expect good surf conditions.” It’s not big, but it’s the first real chance. The afternoon is a bit marginal with a light cross-on breeze.

Monday, August 3 is the first true standout of the outlook. Morning: 1.6m from the SSE, 10-second period, 569 energy (strong). The wind is light cross-shore, but the afternoon is even better – 1.5m, 10-second period, 499 energy, and a clean cross-off wind from the north. This is your best bet early on. The swell direction (SSE) is a little off from the optimum SSE, but close enough, and the period is decent. Crowds are “sometimes” here, so you might have some company but not a zoo.

Tuesday, August 4 drops off – 1.2m in the morning with clean cross-off wind, but lower energy (316) and strong wind. The rest of the week into early August is mostly small and poor, with a few marginal windows. Thursday, August 6 has clean 1.0m-1.1m but low energy, not worth a special trip.

Now, the real gold is on Monday, August 10. That’s over a week away, so keep an eye on it, but the data says: 1.8m from the SE, 11-second period, 779 energy (strong!), and offshore WNW wind in the morning. The comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the standout of the whole 16 days. The period is long enough for proper groundswell, and the offshore wind will make it clean. It’s a beach/pier set-up, so with a long period like 11 seconds, it might wall up a bit, but it’ll still be fun. The swell direction (SE) matches the optimum SSE pretty well. This is your best shot.

Wednesday, August 12 also shows promise: 1.9m from the SE, but only 6-second period, which is short and weak. The wind is clean, but the energy is 394 (strong). It’s a step down from the 10th.

Overall, the first week is mostly a bust with a few clean but small days. The real action is Sunday, August 2 and Monday, August 3 early, then the big one on Monday, August 10. After that, it trails off. Water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing wild.

Stay patient, check the 10th, and you’ll be rewarded.

Rusty.

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