El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, Rusty here with the long-range look for your local break, El Muelle. This place can be a bit of a mixed bag, and this forecast has us waiting a little while for the real magic to line up.

First thing to note: the water is sitting at 52°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year – not a huge deal, but it's nice to feel that little bit of extra warmth.

For the first few days, it's a bit of a slow start. We've got small, weak swell on Sunday the 5th – wave heights around 3 ft from the east, but the combined energy is weak (245), and the cross wind keeps things a little crinkly. Monday the 6th and Tuesday the 7th are blown out by strong winds, with Wednesday and Thursday also looking pretty ordinary. Basically, you'll be looking at a lot of cross-chop and onshore slop for nearly a week.

Alright, now for the good bit. The real standout window starts shaping up for the morning of Friday, the 10th of July. That’s when we see a proper pulse of energy. The swell comes in at 5 ft from the SSE, and more importantly, the period is a nice 10 seconds, giving it some real push. The combined energy jumps right up to a solid moderate reading of 562. The wind swings around to a light NNE cross-offshore, making for clean waves. This is the pick of the whole outlook for a surfer who knows what they're doing. The afternoon picks up even more, to 6 ft with a long 12-second period and a very strong energy reading (1036), though the wind goes a little cross, so the morning window is the purest.

Saturday the 11th keeps things going with a similar size and clean conditions again, though the energy backs off a touch. After that, we drop back into smaller, mushier stuff until the 15th of July, where we get a spike in size but with terrible onshore winds, making it a messy, blown-out ordeal – more of a kiteboarding day than a paddle-in session.

There's a flicker of hope right at the end. On the morning of the 16th of July, we see a clean, cross-off wind with a 4 ft southerly swell showing a moderate energy (370). It's not the biggest, but it's clean. Then on the 17th of July, we get another uptick, with 6 ft to 6 ft from the SSW and clean cross-off winds. The energy readings are solid at 605, but the forecast notes it as "marginal" for tide conditions – so you'll need to pick your moment. Take it with a pinch of salt as it's a little way off, but it’s a promising sign for the second week.

So, to boil it down: if you've got a free morning, make it Friday the 10th. That's the one that's got everything. The rest of the run has a few other clean moments but nothing that quite matches that early stand-out.

Rusty, signing off.

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