El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. We’ve got a bit of a wild stretch ahead at El Muelle, and honestly, the first week is pretty grim if you’re chasing anything decent. There’s a patch of poor surf and onshore junk that’ll have you checking your gear for cobwebs. The first real window doesn’t open up until the 24th, so don’t get too fired up for the early days.

The outlook kicks off on the 15th, but to be honest, it’s a write-off. Light rain and a moderate cross-shore breeze with a cross-chop on a tiny 3ft SSE swell. It’s weak, messy, and the energy is right down at 166. Don’t bother. The next day and a half stays locked in the doldrums. There’s a bit more size on Sunday the 16th (around 5ft ENE), but that cross-off wind is the only good thing about it. The swell is weak. By the afternoon, it’s all over the place. Monday and Tuesday follow the same sad pattern: fresh breezes, cross-onshore, lumpy conditions. You’ll be battling a solid chop for nothing. The water’s sitting at 50°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but with that kind of surf, you’ll still be shivering.

Late on Wednesday the 19th, the wind drops to glassy and we get a tiny 2ft ENE pulse. It’s surfable, but only just. The energy is basically nothing (102). Thursday’s swell drops even more, down to 1ft. It’s clean offshore, but there’s not enough juice to push you over the foam ball.

Then things get seriously out of hand. On Friday the 21st, a big SSW swell arrives, absolutely jacking the wave heights to 12ft, with a strong cross-off breeze. On paper it looks like a washing machine, but the commentary says the wind and tide are favorable—unfortunately, it’s just too big for the break. Same story for Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd. We’re looking at a solid 15ft swell from the SSW with massive energy readings (4000+ to 6000+). This is way out of anyone’s comfort zone here. Forget paddle surfing; this is kite territory or just a full-on spectator event. It’s way over 8ft, so leave it to the experts, and even they’ll be scratching their heads. The period is building from 8 to 14 seconds, which is long and powerful, but it’s just too much movement.

Now, the standout. Monday the 24th, early morning, is your window. We’ve got a clean 8ft S swell with a 12-second period, cross-off wind, and light breeze. The energy is still very strong at 1857, but it’s manageable. For experienced surfers, this is the best of the whole run. Big, clean lines, proper groundswell, and a friendly offshore. You need to be on it early. The afternoon on the 24th gets a bit questionable with an onshore wind. The 25th is still a good option with 5ft from the S and light cross-off winds, but the swell starts to ease.

The second week mixes it up. The 26th is cut short by a fresh ENE cross-shore that chops it all up. The 27th is small and weak. The 28th brings in some wind and a messy 5ft ENE swell, which gets chopped again. Then on the 29th, things look promising once more: a 5ft E swell, clean, light cross-off breeze, and it’s firing. A bit less size on the 30th, but it’s still rideable, and you’ll have the place to yourself if you’re an early bird.

So, if you’re locking in a date, it’s the 24th. Big, clean, and perfect for a confident surfer. The 29th is a solid backup for a long weekend. Just don’t sleep on it, because the first week is a total loss.

Rusty

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