Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – this stretch ain’t pretty. The whole 16-day window is looking like a rough go for any decent paddle. The wind is stuck onshore, mostly from the south, and that’s putting a real damper on things at Chicama - El Cape / Keys. It’s a world-class point break, but you wouldn’t know it from this forecast. The water is a warm 73°, which is *much warmer than normal* for this time of year, so that’s a bit of a head-scratcher, but it won’t help the waves.

For the first week, from Tuesday, August 4th through the weekend, it’s just a series of poor surf conditions. We’re getting pulses of swell, mostly from the SW, with heights hanging around 2ft to 4ft. The combined energy is moderate, hitting between 361 and 728 (moderate wave energy), but it’s all for nothing with that wind. The swell periods are a mix of short 8-second stuff and longer 13-18 second groundswell, which would normally be a good sign for a point break, but with the wind howling onshore, it’s just messy.

The second week, from Monday, August 10th onwards, is more of the same. The swell picks up a bit, with heights around 3ft to 5ft, and the energy gets stronger, hitting 1150 on Friday, August 14th (strong wave energy). But again, the wind stays onshore from the south, and the forecast keeps calling it “poor surf conditions.” There are a few mornings, like Friday the 7th, Sunday the 9th, and Monday the 17th, where it’s labeled “marginal,” but that’s really just a polite way of saying it’s still not worth getting wet for.

The one true standout, if you can call it that, is Thursday, August 13th morning. The combined energy is a solid 883 (moderate wave energy) with a 4ft swell from the SSW, and a 12-second period – that’s a decent groundswell for a point. But it’s still onshore wind. Friday, August 14th morning has the biggest numbers of the run: 4ft from the WSW with a 16-second period, and energy hitting 1150 (strong wave energy). That’s serious, long-period groundswell energy, but again, the wind just ruins it. For a point break like this, long-period swell is a dream, but only if the wind cooperates. It doesn’t.

Look, this is a long stretch of bad news. There are no good surf options for the paddle surfer in this 16-day window. For a spot that’s usually fairly consistent, this is a painful run. If you’ve got a kite, that’s a different story – with that onshore wind and solid swell, the setup looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. But for the rest of us, it’s a waiting game. Forecasts can change, and it tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty.

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