Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's coming up for Chicama - El Cape / Keys. I gotta be straight with you, this one's a bit of a heartbreaker. We're looking at a 16-day window, and honestly, the conditions are just not playing nice for us. There's a lot of onshore wind on the cards, which is a real shame because there is some serious swell energy in the water. The combined swell energy is mostly sitting in the moderate range, hitting values like 521, 617, and even peaking at 834 on the Tuesday afternoon. That's plenty of power, but it's all being blown out. We start off on Sunday morning, the 6th of September, with a clean 4 ft SW swell, a long 13-second period, and light winds, but the word on the street is "poor surf conditions," so something's not clicking. The water is a balmy 70°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year.

Honestly, the whole first week is a write-off. The wind stays onshore and gusty, and despite the swell hanging around 3 ft to 4 ft from the SW with decent periods, every session is marked as poor. We get a bit of a break on the morning of Thursday the 17th of September, where the wind goes light and cross-on, and the score bumps up to a 1, but it's only a 2 ft SW swell. It's a marginal look at best.

The standout, and I use that term loosely, would have to be that Thursday morning, the 17th of September. It's the only time the wind isn't just hammering the place. For a point break like Chicama, you need that long, lined-up swell to wrap in clean. With the wind going light, a 2 ft SW swell from the optimum direction at 13 seconds could actually give you a few fun, rideable walls. The combined energy is a moderate 290, so there's some push there. Just don't expect perfection.

After that, the onshore winds return and the swell sizes drop off. There's a gap of several days from around the 18th of September onward where the recommendations are non-existent. The energy stays low, mostly in the 200s, and the period goes short and jumbled. It's a bleak run for the second week.

Look, I hate to say it, but this forecast is a dud for El Cape. There's no one session I can point to and say "go." The potential is there with that long-period SW groundswell, but the wind just won't cooperate. For a point break that needs clean conditions, this setup looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing right now. Hang in there, the forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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