Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty comin’ at ya from the beach. Let’s talk about what’s shaping up for the next couple of weeks.

Alright, I gotta be straight with you. Right now, and for the next while, it's a bit of a flat spell. The energy is there, with a consistent SW groundswell pushing in, but the wind is just awful. It’s been blowin’ straight onshore from the south day after day, and it’s just trashing everything. The main spot on the menu is Chicama - El Cape / Keys, and while it *is* a point break that loves a SW swell, it can’t do a thing with this wind.

For the first half of the period, from Wednesday the 8th all the way through to around Saturday the 18th, it’s a grim run. The swell is there, hovering around 2 ft to 4 ft, coming from the perfect SW direction, and the period is nice and long—that’s proper groundswell. The combined energy sits between 258 and 700, which is moderate, but none of it matters. The wind is a deal-breaker. Almost every session is marked as “poor surf conditions” because of that onshore breeze.

There is a tiny flicker of hope. On Monday morning, July 13th, the wind dips to a light cross-on from the SSW at just 3 mph. It’s still not clean, but it’s the best you’ll get for a while. The swell will be a modest 3 ft from the SW with a 13-second period, and the energy is moderate (425). It’s only a “marginal” call, but if you’re desperate, that’s your window.

Things get a bit more interesting in the second week. Tuesday, July 21st, sees the swell pick up to 5 ft, but the period drops to 9 seconds and the wind is still onshore. Not great.

Then we get to Wednesday, July 22nd. In the morning, the wind finally looks better—a light onshore from the SSW at 6 mph. The swell is 6 ft from the SSW with a 10-second period, and the wave energy jacks up to a strong 784. It’s flagged as “marginal” due to tide, but this is the most powerful looking day.

The standout, and this is the one to watch, is Thursday, July 23rd. We’ve got a proper 6 ft swell from the SSW, and the period bumps up to a very long 15 seconds. That’s pure groundswell, and it’s going to wrap beautifully into this point break. The combined energy is a strong 1456. The wind forecast is the letdown—still onshore from the south at 12 mph, so it’ll be bumpy. But this is the biggest, most powerful swell of the whole forecast. If the wind shifts even a little offshore, this could be a classic day at El Cape. But as it stands, it’s still a “marginal” call because of the conditions. Keep an eye on this one, but don’t get your hopes up for perfection.

Overall, it’s a frustrating outlook. The swell is there, but the wind just won’t cooperate. The best bet for a clean, if small, session is that Monday the 13th. For raw power, keep Thursday the 23rd on your radar, but expect it to be a battle with the breeze.

Stay patient,
Rusty.

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