Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cookin’ over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, mate, I gotta level with you – it’s a grim stretch ahead. There’s no real standout window for a proper surf session at Chicama - El Cape / Keys. We’re looking at a long, frustrating run of onshore wind and messy conditions pretty much right through to mid-September.

The pattern is set early: strong south winds blowing straight onshore. On Monday the 31st of August, we’ve got some clouds and a 16 mph southerly wind hammering a 4 ft SW swell. The water temp is sitting at 69°F, which is a whopping 5°F warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual, so at least you won’t need a thick wetsuit. But the wave energy is moderate (422) and the wind is just ruining it. That same story repeats for days: Tuesday the 1st of September, Wednesday the 2nd, all with that dreaded “on” wind state.

There’s a brief flicker of hope on Thursday the 3rd of September morning. The swell picks up a bit to 3 ft from the WSW with a long period of 18 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy jumps to strong (771) and the wind eases back to a gentle 9 mph SSE breeze. It’s still technically onshore, but that long period will wrap around the point nicely. It’s flagged as only marginal, and with a gentle breeze, you might find a few clean lines, especially if you can work the tide. But don’t get too worked up. By the afternoon the southerly wind is back at 16 mph.

Friday the 4th of September morning shows the biggest raw swell of the whole run: 5 ft from the SW, period 16 seconds, and the energy is very strong at 1395. Again, a gentle 9 mph SSW breeze – still onshore, but light enough that the point might hold shape. That’s your best chance, but it’s only a 2 out of 10. It’s still marginal, and the afternoon wind crushes it.

After that, it’s a slow downhill slide. The swell shrinks, the period drops, and by Saturday the 12th of September we’re looking at weak, short-period 4 ft S swells with periods of just 9 seconds. The energy drops to moderate (430) and it’s all blown out anyway. There’s a gap of over a week after the 4th of September where it just doesn’t get good.

So, the only two windows to even think about paddling out are Thursday morning the 3rd and Friday morning the 4th of September. The longer-period groundswell (18 and 16 seconds) will favor the point at Chicama, but that onshore component is always gonna be a fight. Keep your expectations low. The rest of it? Honestly, with that much wind and messy surf, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Stay patient. It can’t stay this poor forever.

Rusty.

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