Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for El-Cape, the point at Chicama.

To be straight with you, the whole 16-day window is a rough one. There’s no standout day, no real window where everything lines up. The first recommendation doesn’t even show up until Sunday the 12th, and even then it’s just a marginal call. After that, we’ve got days and days of onshore wind and poor surf conditions. The only real pulse of energy comes much later, but it’s blown out.

The water is sitting at 70°F and that’s a solid 5°F warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a notable anomaly, so you’ll be shedding the wetsuit for sure, but it’s not gonna save the surf.

Let’s start with the best of a bad lot. The only morning that even sniffs a chance is Sunday July 12th. Early it’s a small 3ft of swell from the SW, with a long 14-second period, so there’s some groundswell energy in the water (combined energy of 388). The wind is a light cross-onshore from the SW at 3 mph, which is about as close to glassy as we’re gonna get. It’s a marginal forecast, sure, but if you’re desperate, that’s the cleanest window. The water is still warm, so the paddle out on that long period won’t be a total fight.

After that, every single session is plagued by onshore wind. Saturday morning the 11th? Already a bust. The whole first week is a write-off unless you’re a kite surfer, because with 3ft to 4ft of swell and constant 9 to 16 mph S wind, the beach-and-reef setup here is gonna be a mess of chop. For a paddle surfer, it’s not worth the leash snap.

Now, lookin’ further out. The biggest swell of the period hits around Wednesday July 22nd. That’s a solid 8ft from the SSW with a very long 15-second period. The combined energy cranks up to 2539, so there’s serious power. But – and it’s a big but – the wind is still onshore from the S at 12 mph, and then 19 mph in the afternoon. That’s a recipe for blown-out, lumpy faces. For experts only, and even then, it’s gonna be a battle. The period is so long that a point break like El-Cape should handle it, but the wind is gonna ruin the party.

The tail end of the window, around July 25th and 26th, drops back to 3ft of swell with a very long 16 to 18-second period. The combined energy is still moderate (629 to 774), but the wind is still onshore. Clean lines? Unlikely.

So, the honest truth: there’s nothing to get excited about here. The only real “standout” is the slight chance on Sunday morning the 12th for a tiny, clean, long-period ripple. After that, it’s a long dry spell of onshore wind and poor conditions. If you’re a kiter, you might have fun on the 22nd, but for the rest of us, it’s a week to wax the board and wait for a better forecast.

Rusty.

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