Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this 16-day stretch for Chicama's El Cape / Keys is a tough one. We’re looking at a real dry spell. The first decent wave worth even a mention doesn't roll in until the morning of Thursday the 4th of September, and even then, it's a grim start.

The overall pattern is a long, drawn-out run of onshore wind – that’s a stiff southerly breeze most days, blowing straight onto the point. The swell is coming from the southwest, which is bang on for this place, but the wind just kills it. For the first week, from September 4th right through to around September 10th, we've got swell hanging around in the 3 to 5 foot range. The combined energy is solid enough, hitting a strong 1328 on Friday morning, but the 'poor surf conditions' tag is the only story you need to hear. It's blown out.

Things don't really change. From the 11th of September onward, the swell drops off a cliff, sitting mostly below 3 feet with combined energy readings barely cracking 400. That's weak, weak stuff. The period drops into the low teens and single digits – that’s short-period, weak windswell. Not the kind of long, peeling lines that make the world’s longest wave famous.

For such a consistent point break, this is an unusually quiet run. It's just a long stretch of bad luck with the wind. The south wind is relentless, and even the few times we get a lighter breeze on the morning of Sunday the 6th (6 mph) or Monday the 7th (6 mph cross-on), the swell is just too small to be worth the paddle. The swell direction is fine, the setup is perfect, but the conditions just aren't there. If you absolutely had to pick a window, the morning of Monday the 7th has a brief moment with a light cross-onshore breeze and a small 3-foot swell riding a long 17-second period, giving it a bit of a pulse. But calling that a standout would be a lie. It’s marginal at best.

Honestly, this forecast looks more interesting for a kite surfer looking for a flat-water session than a surfer. Keep an eye on the forecasts, though – it never stays this bad for long around here.

Rusty.

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