Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. And, well, I’ve gotta be straight with you—this 16-day window for Chicama - El Cape / Keys is a tough one. Right from the get-go, the wind is locking in from the wrong quarter, and it doesn’t let up. Every single day is showing onshore wind, with the water temp at a balmy 71°, which is a whopping 7° warmer than it should be for this time of year—so your wettie can stay at home, but don’t expect any clean lines.

The entire outlook is plagued by poor surf conditions, so there’s no standout day, no single session to rush for. The first record rolls in on Wednesday, September 9, with a modest 3ft of SW groundswell running a long 17-second period, but the 16 mph SSE onshore has it chopped to bits. The combined energy is moderate at 814, but it’s wasted. That same story plays out day after day through to Thursday, September 24. The swell stays small, never cracking 4ft, and the wind never shifts to offshore; it’s just a constant southerly breeze smearing everything out. There are gaps of no fun at all—just a solid fortnight of onshore slop.

Sure, the swell direction does match the spot’s optimum SW, and there’s some decent period in the mix early on, like that 17-second pulse on the 9th and an 18-second one on Monday the 14th, but the wind ruins it. Even the cleanest-looking morning on Friday the 11th with a light 6 mph SSW breeze is still an onshore, so you’re fighting the chop. The break is a point, which normally handles longer-period groundswell beautifully, but with these winds, it’s a write-off.

Forget picking a “best” day here—there isn’t one. If you’re determined, the smallest winds and biggest periods might give you a slightly less messy wave on the 11th morning, but I’d save my energy. This stretch is a blank run, and for this area, that’s just how it goes sometimes. Keep an eye on the charts, because it tends not to stay poor forever. Rusty.

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