Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough run ahead. The forecast for Chicama – El Cape / Keys is looking pretty grim for the next two weeks. We’re staring down a long stretch of poor surf conditions, with a lot of onshore wind and only marginal moments. The first real chance to even think about a paddle isn’t until Sunday, the 26th of July, and even then it’s a weak one.

The water is a notable 72°F right now, which is a whopping 8°F warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s way out of the ordinary, so expect it to feel like a warm bath.

Let’s walk through it. Sunday morning, the 26th, we’ve got a tiny swell of 2ft from the SW, but with a long period of 20 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, but the energy is moderate (953). The wind is onshore from the S at 9 mph, and the comment says it’s marginal. It’s a long, slow-moving swell that’s going to break straight on this point, so it’s not offering much in the way of shape. The afternoon gets worse – clear sky but onshore wind picks up to 12 mph, and the swell’s only 3ft with a 15-second period. Poor conditions.

Monday the 27th morning is a little better: 4ft from the SW, 18-second period, moderate energy (1047), and light onshore breeze at 6 mph. Still, it’s a marginal call. The afternoon is back to poor with stronger wind.

Tuesday the 28th morning has a cross-on wind at 6 mph, with 5ft swell and 16-second period. The energy is moderate (945) but the wind is ruining it. The rest of the week is a blur of onshore wind, poor surf, and dropping energy. By Thursday the 30th, the swell is down to 4ft, period 12 seconds, and the wind is howling from the S at 16 mph. Forget it.

The weekend of the 1st and 2nd of August is flat and poor. Saturday the 1st morning has 2ft and strong onshore wind. Not worth getting out of bed.

There’s a tiny flicker of hope on Monday the 3rd of August morning – 5ft from the SSW with 12-second period and light onshore wind at 6 mph. The energy is moderate (641), but it’s still a poor surf call. The rest of that week is more of the same: onshore wind, weak swell, poor conditions.

The best we can say is the morning of Friday the 7th of August. It’s still onshore wind at 9 mph, but the swell is 3ft from the SW with a long 15-second period. The energy is moderate (671). It’s just a marginal surf forecast, but if you’re desperate, that’s the most promising window in the whole run. After that, it’s back to the same old story: onshore winds and poor surf right through the 10th of August.

Honestly, for the next two weeks, this is a kite-surfing setup, not a paddle-surfing one. The waves are small, the wind is strong and onshore, and the quality just isn’t there. For a beginner-friendly point like El Cape, this is a real bummer. But hey, it’s a long stretch – forecasts can change. Keep your eye on the 7th of August.

Rusty.

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