Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you. The forecast for the next 16 days is a tough one.

Look, the only break in the running is Chicama - El Cape / Keys. It’s a point break, which is a great setup, and it's exposed to the swell. But the wind is the problem. For the entire 16-day window, we're looking at a consistent onslaught of onshore wind from the south and southwest. That is brutal on a point break. It doesn’t matter that the swell direction from the SW is a good match; the onshore wind is going to wreck the face, making for bumpy, weak surf.

On Thursday, September 3rd, we start with a clean-looking 3 ft swell from the WSW with a very long period of 18 seconds. That period (over 15 seconds) tells you it's a powerful groundswell, and combined wave energy is moderate at 786. At a point break like this, that long period would usually mean long, peeling waves. But with a 12 mph onshore wind, it'll be blown out from the get-go. The water temp is sitting at 68°, which is 4° warmer than normal – that's much warmer than usual for the time of year, a notable anomaly.

The biggest surf we see comes in on Friday, September 4th, with a 5 ft swell from the SW, but again, that onshore wind is 12 mph. The energy is strong (1328), but it’s useless. Shorter period swells start popping up around Sunday, September 6th, with 4 ft at 13 seconds. The energy drops, but the wind doesn't let up.

For the rest of the month, the story repeats. On Friday, September 18th, you get a 1 ft swell with a 19-second period. The energy is weak at 273, and onshore wind is still 9 mph. The wave comment on almost every data point says "poor surf conditions" with scores of 0 out of 10.

There are no standouts in this window. The best it gets is maybe a brief window Saturday morning, 5th September, with lighter winds, but the conditions are described as "marginal" at best. For the whole 16-day stretch, every report is either "poor" or "marginal." It’s a total washout for paddle surfing. Honestly, with that much onshore wind, this setup is way more interesting for kiteboarding than for surfing.

Stay tuned, the forecasts can change.

- Rusty

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