Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what we’ve got coming down the line for this stretch of coast.

Truth be told, this is a tough run. We’re looking at a 16-day window where the surf is just not cooperating. For day after day, the wind is hammering straight onshore. We’re talking about a run from Thursday the 10th all the way through to the end of the period where the conditions are marked as poor. Even though we get some solid long-period groundswell pushing in, the wind keeps it messy and bumpy. There’s a real long stretch here with nothing worth getting excited about.

The first recommendation that even sniffs at something rideable doesn't come until Friday the 25th of September. That morning, things might get close to being worth a look, but it’s still just marginal. The water temp is about average for the time of year.

### Chicama - El Cape / Keys (Point)

Right, so the only break on the cards is El Cape. It’s a point break, best for beginners, and it’s fairly consistent, which means it rarely goes completely flat, but that’s about the only positive. It’s open to the swell and the optimum direction is SW, which is exactly what we get, but it just doesn’t matter with the wind.

From the get-go on Thursday the 10th, we’ve got a 4ft SW swell with a very long 16-second period, carrying moderate wave energy (834). But the wind is 9 mph from the SSE straight onshore, and that’s the story of the whole run. The swell actually looks decent at times—like on Monday the 14th, where we see an 18-second period SW swell with a 3ft face and 611 combined energy, but the 12 mph S wind kills it. It’s too choppy and ugly for a clean ride.

This pattern just keeps repeating. The swell direction is good, the period is solid, but the onshore wind never gives us a break. Even the bigger days, like Friday the 11th with a 5ft SSW swell (8-second period, 513 energy), are ruined by 12 mph winds. The crowds here are never an issue, but that’s because there’s nothing to crowd.

The one day that’s almost different is Friday the 25th of September. The wind drops to a light 6 mph from the south, still onshore but barely a breeze, and we get a 2ft SW swell with a 19-second period and 518 energy. That long groundswell period will make for some real lulls between sets, but on a point break like this, it could link up. It’s still just a “marginal” call, but it’s the closest we get to a usable wave in the whole 16 days. If you’re desperate, that’s your only shot.

This is a tough outlook, mates. A blank run is more normal for this area when the wind sets in, but it never stays this poor forever. Keep an eye on the forecasts because things can flip.

Rusty.

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