Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s lined up for the next couple of weeks at this spot.

First up, we’re starting with a bit of a slow burner. The water temp is sitting at 69° right now, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a solid 4° above average, so you’ll be leaving the wetsuit at home. But the surf? It’s gonna be a grind for a while.

Sunday, July 5th kicks off with clean little waves. Morning has some clouds and a light breeze from the S at 9 mph, but the direction is onshore, so it’s not ideal. Swell is 2ft from the SW with a very long period of 21 seconds. That’s classic groundswell, and for the long left at Chicama - El Cape / Keys (point break), that long period is actually a bonus – it’ll wrap in with nice lines and make paddling out easier. The combined energy is moderate (742). However, the forecast is calling it marginal, so it’s not a standout.

By the afternoon the wind picks up to 16 mph from the S onshore, and the swell bumps to 3ft but conditions turn poor. Not your time to paddle.

Monday, July 6th is similar. Morning has 4ft of SW swell at 18 seconds, still with a S breeze at 9 mph onshore. The energy bumps up to strong (1215) but again, that onshore wind is messing with the surface. Marginal at best. The afternoon is just poor.

Tuesday, July 7th morning offers a glimmer. The wind swings to the SSW at only 6 mph, a light cross-onshore breeze that just gets the lightest ripple. Swell is 4ft from the SW at 16 seconds. The energy is moderate (953). It’s still only a 2 out of 10 for the session, but this is the best we’ve seen so far this week – marginally rideable for a wave starved surfer, but not the day to write home about.

From Wednesday, July 8th through to the weekend, it’s a real dry spell. Onshore winds persist, mostly moderate breezes from the S, and swell sits around 3ft with periods dropping to 13-15 seconds. The energy drops off (300-600 range). The conditions are repeatedly marked as poor. You’d be better off checking the tide charts than your board.

There’s a short window Saturday morning, July 12th with light SSW winds at 6 mph, but at 3ft and 14 seconds, it’s marginal again. Nothing to get excited about.

The pattern of light onshore winds and small, marginal surf continues straight through until Saturday, July 18th. That morning, things start to change. We see a 6ft swell from the SSW with a period of 14 seconds and strong energy (1229). But the wind is still onshore from the S at 9 mph. Unfortunately, the report still says poor surf conditions. That’s a lot of water moving, but the wind is going to chop it up. That one is more for the kite crew than paddle surfing.

The real long-range glimmer comes on Monday morning, July 20th. A 4ft swell from the SSW with an 11-second period, but the wind is from the SSE at 12 mph onshore. Energy drops right back. No winners there either.

The bottom line: This is a tough outlook. The whole 16 days is dominated by onshore wind and marginal to poor surf conditions. There is no true standout period. The best chance of a session would be the Tuesday morning, July 7th where you get the lightest wind and a bit of energy, but even that is barely a 2 out of 10. After that, you’re waiting for a week and a half for nothing to really improve. The forecast can always change, but right now, I’d be doing something else for the next two weeks.

Rusty.

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