Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me level with you. I’ve looked this stretch over real close, and for the next couple of weeks, it’s a pretty grim picture for a proper paddle session at Chicama - El Cape / Keys. We’ve got a whole heap of days where the wind is just blowing straight onshore from the south, and that's no good for lining up a clean ride. The first solid recommendation doesn’t show up until the end of the month, so we’re looking at a gap of several days with nothing worth calling out.

From Saturday the 22nd of August right through until Thursday the 27th of August, it's all "poor surf conditions." The swell is small, mostly under 3ft, with short periods around 8 seconds, and that southerly wind is ruining any chance of a decent wave. The combined swell energy is weak, reading between 161 and 530, so there's just no punch. The water temp on the 22nd is 68°, which is about 4° warmer than normal, so that’s notably warm for this time of year, but it doesn't help the surf.

We finally get a bit of a pulse around Friday the 28th of August. The morning shows a 4ft swell from the SW with a 17-second period, and the combined energy jumps to a strong 1059. But the comment is still "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions," and the wind is still onshore. It's a tease, but not a goer. The afternoon gets bigger at 6ft from the SW, but the onshore wind and "poor surf conditions" tag kills it.

Saturday the 29th of August stays similar with 5ft swell from the SW, but again, onshore wind spoils the party. The combined energy is high at 1110, but it’s messy. This pattern of building swell but trash wind continues right through to the end of the month and into September.

Now, the first real standout that gets my blood pumping is Thursday the 3rd of September. Thursday morning we see a 5ft swell from the WSW with a long 19-second period. The combined energy is a very strong 1574. The comment is "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions," but that's the best we've seen. That WSW direction and that period could set up a proper line down the point if the tide plays ball. The wind is a gentle breeze from the south, still onshore, but lighter than the weeks before. It’s not glassy, but it’s the best chance for a wave with some real push and length. It’s only a 2 out of 10 score, but in this run, that’s the peak.

Friday the 4th of September morning is similar: 6ft from the SW, 16-second period, combined energy of 1587. Again, marginal. The swell is there, the energy is strong, but the wind is just enough to mess with the face.

Look, if you're desperate, the 3rd of September morning is the one to circle on the calendar. That long-period WSW swell hitting a point break could be special. But don't expect perfection. It’s a wait-and-see game. For now, the setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing with all this wind.

Rusty.

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