Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for the 16-day window.

First up, the water temperature right now is a whopping 72.7°, which is about 7.9° warmer than usual for this time of year. That's a real standout, way above average, so you'll be in for a warm one.

Right, the outlook for Chicama - El Cape / Keys (El-Cape)… it’s a bit of a slow burner, to be honest. We’ve got a long stretch of pretty average conditions for the first week or so. On Monday the 20th of July, we’re looking at a consistent onshore wind from the south, which is just going to mess up the surface. The swell is there, around 3.3 ft to 3.6 ft from the southwest, but with that wind, it’s not going to be pretty. The combined energy sits around 387 to 422 (moderate wave energy), but the quality is poor. This carries on through Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd, with the wind still onshore and the swell dropping off. The period on Thursday jumps to 24 seconds, which is very long-period groundswell for a point break like this, but with the wind still onshore, it’s not going to be a classic.

Friday the 24th shows a glimmer of hope. The morning sees a light cross-onshore breeze, which is a bit better, but the swell is only 2.0 ft with a long period and the combined energy is still high (585 – moderate). The rating is only marginal. This pattern continues into Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th, with light winds and small, long-period SW swell. The energy is building, but the size is just too small to get really excited about.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. From Monday the 27th of July onwards, things start to pick up. The swell increases to 3.6 ft in the morning, and the combined energy jumps to 1137 (strong wave energy). The wind is light from the south, which is onshore, but the size is starting to build. The morning of Tuesday the 28th is a real standout. The wind turns cross-shore from the WSW at only 6 mph, which is a light breeze, and the swell is a solid 4.9 ft from the SW with a 15-second period. The energy is 1075 (strong). This is the best looking window for a clean, rideable wave at El-Cape. The afternoon gets onshore again, so get out early.

The swell dips a bit mid-week, but then on Sunday the 2nd of August, we see a proper pulse. The morning shows 5.9 ft from the SW with a 15-second period and a massive combined energy of 2011 (very strong wave energy). The wind is onshore though, which is a shame. This is a big swell, pushing 5.9 ft to 6.9 ft, and it’s going to be too much for beginners. It’s getting into the expert-only zone. The wind is not ideal, but if you’re a solid surfer, the power will be there. The energy is through the roof.

This carries into Monday the 3rd of August with 6.2 ft from the SSW, but again, the wind is onshore. The energy is still strong at 1220.

So, the pick of the entire forecast is the morning of Tuesday the 28th of July. That light cross-shore wind and a solid 4.9 ft SW groundswell with strong energy is the best chance for clean, classic long point waves at El-Cape. The other notable event is the big pulse on the 2nd of August, but the wind is a problem. The crowds here are never an issue, which is a bonus.

The first week is a write-off for quality surf. There’s a solid 5-6 day gap with no real recommendations before things start to build.

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