Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for the surf. We’ve got a long stretch of onshore, bumpy conditions and waves that just aren’t doing anything for us. It’s one of those setups where you’re better off keeping the board in the truck and the wax in the bag.

We’re looking at a solid 16-day window here, but honestly, the standout quality is just not there. The first week is a total write-off. From Friday the 7th right through to Thursday the 13th, conditions are consistently poor. Onshore winds, mostly moderate to fresh, are chopping up what little swell we have. The swell heights are hovering around that 2 ft to 5 ft mark, and while there are some long period SW pulses in there, the onshore wind is just killing any chance of a clean face. It’s all a bit mushy and messy. Not worth the paddle.

There is a slight, and I mean *slight*, change in the air as we head into the second week. Friday the 14th and Monday the 17th get a marginal call, but that’s just about tide, not about quality. We finally see a break in the onshore flow, with some lighter morning breezes. But the surf is still small, around 3 ft, and the wave comment is still dominated by "poor" conditions. The energy picks up on Monday the 18th, with the combined energy hitting 1388, which is a strong pulse, but the wind is back on it in the afternoon, ruining any chances.

Even the standout spot, Chicama - El Cape / Keys (El-Cape) is a no-go. It’s a beginner-friendly point that is fairly consistent, but with these winds, it’s just not going to line up. The water temp on the morning of the 7th is a very warm 72°, a full 8° above average for the time of year, which is super unusual, but you won’t be feeling it because you won't want to get in.

Look, there’s a small window Tuesday the 19th and Wednesday the 20th with lighter winds and a 4 ft to 4 ft SW swell with a 14-15 second period, but the quality is still poor. And the entire second week is still not delivering anything worth getting excited about. The swell direction is right, from the SW, matching the optimum, but that doesn't matter when the wind is blowing side-onshore or onshore.

Honestly, this looks like a stretch where the setup is more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle surfers. If there is any good news, it’s that this spot is fairly consistent, so it tends not to stay this bad for long. But as the forecast stands, you're looking at a very long dry spell. The forecasts can change, but for now, don't hold your breath.

Rusty.

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