Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about our stretch of coast at Chicama - El Cape / Keys. Look, it’s going to be a tough run, surf-wise, especially for a point that can really crank. The whole 16-day window is a quiet one. We have a few sessions that are barely hanging on in the “marginal” category, but nothing that is going to fire. The first decent wave of note doesn’t show up until the morning of Monday, 28 July.

The real problem is the wind direction. It’s coming from the S and SSW for almost the entire period, which is directly onshore for this setup. That kills the surface for us. For the morning of 28 July, we see some SW swell coming in at about 5ft with a period of 16 seconds, and though the energy is moderate (943), the onshore wind will keep it bumpy. Honestly, for this break, when the wind is that persistent and onshore, the ocean surface is going to be messy. It’s not really a paddle-surfing vibe.

If you look at the water temp, it’s about 72°F which is a stunning 8°F warmer than normal for this time of year, making it feel very tropical. But the trade-off is that the wind is just not cooperating. The swell direction is coming from the right direction (SW), matching perfectly with what the break loves best, but that period is a bit too long. A period of 18-20 seconds like we see on the 26th is very long; it tends to make the wave lurch and close out at points like this, or just roll through too straight, needing a dedicated reef or river mouth to get that classic peel.

Most of the afternoons are a complete write-off with stronger onshore wind. Even the mornings that get labelled as “marginal” are barely scraping a score of 2. There’s a sniff of light breeze on a few mornings, but with the swell energy dropping from the moderate-low range (around 900-1000) down to the low 300s by the second week, it just won't be worth the paddle out. The entire second week, from the 31st of July onward, is a washout until a slightly better but still problematic morning on 5 August. That morning shows the swell picking back up to about 4ft from the SW with a period of 14 seconds, but the energy is still only moderate (613), and the wind is back onshore at 6 mph. It’s a pattern of a near miss.

For a break that is “fairly exposed” and “fairly consistent,” this is a real bummer. It’s the kind of stretch where you’d be better off checking the forecasts again later. For now, if you’re determined, the morning of Monday, 28 July, is your best and really only chance at a couple of knee-high sliders, but don't expect much. It looks more interesting for kite surfing than for a dedicated surf session.

Rusty.

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