Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this forecast for Chicama - El Cape / Keys is a tough one. We’ve got a 16-day window staring at us, but don’t get your hopes up for the first few days. There’s a big gap of no good surf right off the bat, from Saturday the 29th of August all the way through to Wednesday the 3rd of September. The wind is howling onshore from the south, blowing 9 to 16 mph, and it’s just ruining everything. The swell is there, but it’s a mess.

Now, let’s talk about the water. It’s about average for the time of year here at El Cape – nothing unusual temperature-wise. The combined energy of all swells directed here on the 29th is a strong 1110, but with that wind, it’s poor surf conditions. The swell is 5ft from the SW, but with a 14-second period, it’s a longer-period groundswell that’s getting chopped up by the onshore breeze. For a beginner-friendly point break like this, that’s no good.

Things start to look a little better on Thursday the 3rd of September. The morning shows marginal surf with a 3ft SW swell at 18 seconds, combined energy of 678, and a gentle breeze from the south that’s still onshore, but lighter. It’s not great, but it’s a step up from the junk we’ve been seeing. The wind state is still on, so the surface won’t be glassy, but the longer period suggests there’s some shape if you’re keen.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is Friday the 4th of September. The morning has a 6ft SW swell, 16-second period, and combined energy of 1615. That’s a lot of juice. Winds are lighter from the SSW at 9 mph, still onshore, but this is the biggest swell of the period. It’s marginal surf, not perfect, but for a point break, that long-period groundswell will wrap in nicely. The afternoon drops to 5ft, but the energy is still strong at 1351. This is the best on offer, but it’s not a day for beginners – 6ft is pushing it for the less experienced.

After that, we slide back into poor surf again. From Saturday the 5th of September through to the end of the window, the swell drops and the wind stays onshore. The 13th of September has a 5ft SSW swell with a short 8-second period, which is just messy. The combined energy is 792, but the period is too short for any real quality. Honestly, for a spot that’s usually fairly consistent with a SW optimum, this is a frustrating run of onshore wind. It’s not looking good for paddle surfing – if you’re into kite surfing, the setup might be more interesting.

So, keep your eyes on Friday the 4th of September. That’s the only flicker of hope in this 16-day run. The rest is a write-off.

Rusty.

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