Chicama - El Cape / Keys Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you – this 16-day window for Chicama – El Cape / Keys is a tough one. The overall pattern is pretty grim, with a constant onshore wind from the south that’s just messing up what could be a nice run of consistent south-west swell. There’s hardly a moment where the surf cleans up properly, and the scores are low across the board. We’re looking at a long stretch of days where the conditions are just poor for a proper paddle session.

The first real sniff of anything that might get a surfer’s heart beating is a bit of a wait. The early part of the period, from Friday 17 July right through to Thursday 23 July, is a write-off. The wind is blowing straight onshore, and the wave comment is consistently “poor surf conditions”. You’re looking at swell heights between 2 ft and 4 ft, with a period of 11 to 12 seconds, but that southerly wind is just ruining the face. The water temp is a real standout here – a massive 71° with a 6° anomaly, meaning it’s much warmer than normal for this time of year, which is nice if you’re just floating around, but it doesn’t help the waves.

Now, we start to see a slight shift around Friday 24 July. The morning shows a 2 ft swell from the west-southwest with a very long period of 24 seconds, and the combined energy is strong at 709. The wind is still onshore, but the period is interesting. That’s a proper groundswell, but at a point break like Chicama, that long period can be a blessing – it’ll wrap in nicely. But the “marginal” tag tells you it’s not quite there yet, and the wind is still on it. Saturday 25 July morning has a bit more size at 4 ft from the south-southwest, period 13 seconds, and energy is up to 999 (moderate to strong), but again, the wind is onshore. The afternoon of the 25th sees energy jump to 1241, but it’s still a “poor” call.

The one period that stands out as the best on offer, and I do mean *the best*, is around Sunday 26 July. The morning shows a 3 ft swell from the southwest, with a very long period of 20 seconds, and the combined energy is strong at 1302. The wind is a light cross-onshore breeze from the southwest at 6 mph, which is close to glassy. The wave comment is “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions”, but this is the only window where the wind isn’t just hammering straight on. For a point break like Chicama, that long-period groundswell will wrap in cleanly, and the light cross-onshore will keep the face reasonably smooth. It’s not perfect, but it’s the closest we get to a decent session. The afternoon of the 26th is a bit worse with the wind picking up, and then it’s back to the same old story.

Moving into the second week, it’s more of the same. Wednesday 29 July morning has a similar setup – 3 ft from the southwest, period 14 seconds, light cross-onshore wind from the southwest at 6 mph. The combined energy is moderate at 506. It’s another “marginal” call, and it’s about as good as it gets for the rest of the run. The period drops after that, and the wind just stays onshore, with no real standouts through to the end of the period on Saturday 1 August.

So, to sum it up: if you’re desperate for a paddle, Sunday 26 July morning is your best shot, with that long-period groundswell and a light cross-onshore breeze. It’s not a classic, but it’s the only time the stars align even a little. The rest of the time, the wind is just too strong and onshore to make the most of the consistent swell. Keep an eye on the charts, but this one’s a frustrating stretch.

Rusty.

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