Desperations Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Desperations.

We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag of a forecast ahead. The standout window is right at the start, with a really clean, glassy morning on Monday the 7th. That’s your best bet for the whole 16-day run. After that, the pattern gets messy with strong winds and lumpy surf for several days, before a big pulse of swell moves in that’s just too powerful for comfort.

Let’s break it down.

Monday the 7th is the day to circle. The morning is a treat: clear skies, a glassy 3 mph easterly breeze, and a solid 5 ft SSW groundswell rolling in with a long 16-second period. The water is sitting at 78°, which is about normal for this time of year. The combined energy is pumping at a strong 1390, and the conditions are absolutely pristine for experienced surfers. This is a reef break, so on a long-period groundswell like this, it should line up nicely. A few others might be in the water, but it’ll be well worth it.

The afternoon stiffens up with a 6 mph onshore wind, making it marginal. Not the call.

Tuesday the 8th starts with a cross-shore, and the swell is still solid at 5 ft from the SSW with a very long 17-second period. But the wind is already a factor, and the quality drops off. By the afternoon, a 12 mph southerly cross-onshore makes it choppy and unappealing.

Wednesday the 9th offers a brief reprieve. The morning has a light cross-offshore breeze and 4 ft SSW swell, giving clean conditions. The afternoon turns glassy again with a light NW wind and 4 ft SSW swell. It’s not the size of Monday, but it’s a nice, clean session for a quieter day.

Then the wheels come off. From Thursday the 10th through to the end of the first week, we’re stuck with strong cross-onshore winds. The swell hangs around, but the wind is a killer. The surf is lumpy and messy. On Saturday the 12th, a massive 20-second period SSW swell arrives, but it’s blown out by 18 to 25 mph winds. The combined energy hits 2786 in the afternoon, but it’s a complete mess. A kite surfer might get excited, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a hard pass.

Sunday the 13th brings a full-on 10 ft SSW swell with a long 18-second period, but the wind is still a strong cross-onshore. The combined energy is a massive 5573, but it’s hostile and ugly. Only experts would even consider it, and even then, the wind will ruin it.

From Monday the 14th through Tuesday the 22nd, the pattern is clear: the swell is too big. We’re looking at 7 ft to 12 ft SSW swells, often with long periods. The wind and tide are sometimes favorable, but the wave heights are consistently over 8 ft, making it a zone for experts only. Tuesday the 15th afternoon has a glassy 8 ft SSW swell with a 16-second period and combined energy of 3741, but that’s a big wave setup for a reef. Wednesday the 16th morning drops back to a more manageable 5 ft with a glassy offshore wind, which is a solid session for the experienced crew. After that, the wind turns back on and the surf gets messy again.

The second week sees another massive pulse on Sunday the 20th of September, with a huge 12 ft SSW swell. The combined energy is a staggering 6350, but it’s still too big for most. The wind is a cross-shore, making it lumpy. The trend continues into Monday the 21st with offshore winds on the afternoon session, but still 7 ft of swell. Tuesday the 22nd has a glassy afternoon with a 7 ft SSW swell and a very long 16-second period, but it’s still a big, powerful wave.

So, the final word: Monday morning the 7th is your best shot. It’s clean, glassy, and the swell is solid without being insane. After that, there are a few windows of clean surf on the 9th and the 16th, but the wind or the size will be a factor. The big swells in the second week are for the brave and the experienced. Don’t sleep on that first window.

Rusty.

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