Desperations Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Rusty here again, with the same outlook but in feet and miles, just the way some of you like it.

Right off the bat, it’s a quiet start. The first real session to get excited about doesn’t pop up until Tuesday the 7th. Before that, Sunday and Monday are pretty ordinary – small, messy, not worth paddling out for unless you’re desperate for a splash. So we’ve got a couple of days of flat to poor conditions to sit through.

Tuesday morning the 7th looks fresh. Clean conditions with a light offshore from the NE, pushing in a 2 ft swell from the SW. The period is a very long 15 seconds, which is proper groundswell. That kind of period will make for nice, lined-up waves at this reef, though it might break a bit straight if the tide isn’t perfect. The combined energy is moderate at 220. Crowds are possible here, so get in early. Tuesday afternoon holds up nicely too – glassy, clean, with a 2 ft swell and a super-long 16 second period (energy 349). This is the standout of the first week: clean, offshore or glassy winds, and that long-period energy means good shape.

Then things get big. Wednesday the 8th through to Friday the 10th, the swell pumps up to 8 ft to 10 ft from the SSW. That’s expert territory – way too big for beginners. The wind turns onshore and strong, so it’s going to be a washing machine. The combined energy spikes to 4543 on Wednesday morning, which is strong. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The weekend of the 11th and 12th drops back a notch but remains tricky – 6 ft to 7 ft swells, but the wind is cross or onshore, making it lumpy and messy. Not one for the good wave count. The combined energy is still high (1714 to 2158), but the wind isn’t doing us any favours.

Monday the 13th through to Wednesday the 15th is a write-off. Strong winds (30 km/h to 35 km/h) from the SE and cross, with swell dropping to 3 ft to 4 ft. It’s lumpy, choppy, and just plain unpleasant. The energy drops from 1184 down to 440. A real flat spell in the middle of the run.

We start to see some life again on Thursday the 16th. Morning has clean 3 ft swell from the SSE with light cross-offshore winds (energy 299). Then Thursday afternoon goes glassy – 3 ft, SSE, 11 second period, with glassy conditions and an energy of 378. That’s a proper clean session, small but fun. Friday the 17th morning is also clean with similar conditions. These two days are the other standout window – not big, but clean and surfable.

Saturday the 18th is a mixed bag. Morning has a 2 ft long-period swell (18 secs!) with clean cross-offshore winds (energy 421), but the afternoon brings light rain and moderate offshore winds. Okay, but not as good.

And then we’ve got a late pulse. Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th look to bring another big swell pulse – 8 ft to 10 ft from the SSW, with very strong energy (3710 to 3767). Again, that’s too big for this break, mostly onshore, so expert-only, and pretty wild. But Monday the 20th afternoon has a special note: glassy wind, 7 ft swell from the SSW with a 13 second period, and the report says excellent conditions for experienced surfers. That’s a potential heavy-water gem for those who know what they’re doing.

Best bet overall: Tuesday the 7th for clean, long-period waves in the smaller range, and Thursday the 16th for a glassy, fun session. The big pulses on the 8th-10th and 19th-20th are for experts only, and likely more of a show than a go.

Keep an eye on the forecasts for those later dates – promising, but less certain.

Rusty.

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