Caballeros Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – it’s a tough run of forecasts for the next couple of weeks at Caballeros. The whole outlook is littered with "marginal" surf and tricky conditions, so there’s no standout winner, but let’s see what we’re working with.

We kick off the period on Sunday, July 19th, with a SW swell coming in at 5 ft, period of 13 seconds, and combined energy of 857 (moderate). The water is sitting at 71°, which is 8° warmer than normal – that’s very unusual, like a tropical bath for this time of year. But the wind is a cross-on from the SW at 6 mph, putting a bit of chop on the surface. Monday the 20th sees a slight drop to 4 ft SW swell, still cross-on with 3 mph winds, so it’s small and messy. Tuesday the 21st eases back to 4 ft, again cross-on, and the energy drops to 507 (weak). Honestly, these first few days are a chore – the waves are there, but the quality is poor with that cross-on wind messing things up.

Wednesday the 22nd is a bit of a tease. The swell nudges up to 5 ft from the S, but the period is a short 8 seconds, which means weaker, dumpy, close-out style waves. The wind is offshore from the WSW at 6 mph in the morning, which is a rare clean moment, but that short period kills it. Combined energy is 514 (moderate). Not worth paddling out for.

Thursday the 23rd is a head-scratcher. The swell drops to 2 ft but the period is a massive 24 seconds – that’s very long-period groundswell. Energy is 744 (moderate). In theory, that long period loves a reef like Caballeros, but the size is tiny. Light offshore winds in the morning make it look glassy, but you’re probably going to be sitting on your board waiting for a knee-high set.

Friday the 24th brings back 5 ft from the SSW with a 10-second period, combined energy of 904 (moderate). Morning wind is offshore from the WSW at 6 mph, so conditions should be clean. This is the best of a mediocre bunch early on – the swell direction (SSW) is a good match for the optimum (SSW), and the offshore wind is a big plus. Still, the quality is rated as marginal, so don’t expect perfection.

The next week, from July 26th onward, the swell size stays in the 2 ft to 5 ft range, mostly SW direction, with periods between 14 and 20 seconds. The real highlight is the morning of Monday, July 27th, when the swell hits 5 ft from the SW with a period of 18 seconds and combined energy of 1694 (strong). That’s got some grunt. The wind is cross-on from the SSW at 6 mph, so not perfect, but that energy is pumping. If you’re an advanced surfer, this is the best window – the long period will wrap nicely around the reef, but it’s too big for beginners. The afternoon gets choppier with a 9 mph cross-on breeze.

Tuesday the 28th holds at 5 ft from the SW with a 15-second period, energy of 1261 (strong to very strong), but again cross-on winds. The crowds at Caballeros can be there sometimes, but with this patchy outlook, it might not be too packed.

The last standout is the morning of Sunday, August 2nd, with a 6 ft SW swell, 14-second period, and energy of 1257 (strong). Offshore winds from the WSW at 6 mph make it clean. It’s the biggest swell of the whole period, but at 6 ft it’s pushing into expert territory. The period is a bit shorter than the previous week, but the offshore wind is a gem.

All up, this is a spot for the dedicated local. The water is freakishly warm, the swell is mostly there, but the wind is always a little off. The best two windows are Friday morning, July 24th, and Monday morning, July 27th. The 27th has the biggest energy and a long period, but the 24th has the perfect offshore wind. Choose your battle.

Rusty.

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