Caballeros Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Bit of a tricky outlook this one, so let’s get straight into it. The swell window’s got some energy coming in, but the conditions are gonna keep things messy for a while. We’ve only got one spot on the cards: Caballeros (reef) – it’s exposed to SSW swell and picks up a mix, but it’s not offering clean rides for a lot of the 16 days.

The water’s sitting at 70°, which is 8° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s very unusual, a real warm anomaly. You’ll notice it.

Alright, the first surf of note comes on Sunday 16 August morning. There’s a 4ft SW swell with a period of 13 seconds, giving moderate wave energy around 669 – but the wind’s cross-on S at 6 mph, so it’s a bit bumpy. The forecast is marginal, and the tide’s not helping. Nothing worth paddling out for yet.

Monday 17 August is similar – 4ft SW, 14-second period, moderate energy at 618, but still a cross wind. Choppy and only a 2 out of 10 quality. The swell’s there but the wind’s wrecking it.

Now, Tuesday 18 August sees a bump in size: 7ft SSW swell, 13-second period, and the energy jumps to 1634 – strong wave energy. However, it’s a cross wind at 9 mph, so it’s messy. This is where it gets too big for beginners (over 5ft), and the wind keeps it from being clean. Not the standout.

Wednesday 19 August morning peaks at 8ft SSW with a 10-second period and energy hitting 2084 – that’s very strong. But the wind is cross-on at 6 mph, blowing ripples across the face. The afternoon drops to 7ft but the period shortens to 9 seconds, and with 9 mph wind it’s choppy. Not the day to go unless you want a struggle.

Thursday 20 August – still 7ft S swell, period dropping to 9 seconds, energy at 736. Wind early is offshore SW at 6 mph, but it’s listed as “unknown” wave state – that’s a bit of a worry. The afternoon returns to cross-on. Not ideal.

Through the rest of that week into the next, the swell fades. Friday 22 August has 3ft S swell, 8-second period, low energy around 249 – weak, short period, and poor conditions. Nothing to get excited about.

There’s a gap of poor and marginal surf from Saturday 23 August through Wednesday 27 August – swell stays under 4ft, periods mostly below 10 seconds, and the wind never really cleans up. It’s a quiet stretch.

Now, Thursday 27 August afternoon shows a 2ft SW swell with an 18-second period – that’s a long period groundswell, energy at 576 – but it’s tiny. That long period means it’ll be tricky on a reef setup at this size, likely breaking straight. Only for the super keen.

The best chance across the whole outlook comes on Friday 28 August morning. There’s a 4ft SW swell, 15-second period, moderate energy at 580, and the wind is light cross-on from SW at only 3 mph – near glassy. That’s as clean as it gets in this run. The water is still warm, and the swell direction matches the optimum. It’s small, but it’ll be the pick of the fortnight. Keep an eye on the crowds – this spot can get busy.

Saturday 29 August and Sunday 30 August keep the 4ft to 4ft SW swell going with 12-14 second periods, but the wind picks up to 6-9 mph cross-on, making it choppy again.

Finally, Monday 31 August morning throws up a 2ft SW swell with a very long 21-second period – that’s a deep ocean groundswell – and energy at 999. The wind is offshore WSW at 6 mph, but the wave state is unknown. That 21-second period on a reef might produce some weird lines. Worth a paddle if you’re patient, but it’s small.

Overall, Friday 28 August morning is your true standout – it’s close to glassy, manageable size, and decent period. A few days either side are worth a look if you’re desperate, but the wind and tide are against us for most of it.

Stay keen, Rusty.

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