Caballeros Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’.

Honestly, mate, this is a tough stretch. For the next sixteen days, we’re looking at a real dry spell over at Caballeros. There are no true standouts here, just a handful of mornings that might be worth a look if you’re desperate. The overall pattern is a long run of poor to marginal conditions, with a lot of cross-onshore wind messing things up. There’s a big gap of several days with nothing worth recommending, and even when the numbers edge up a bit, the quality just isn’t there.

The first little flicker comes on Saturday morning, September 12th. Caballeros sees a 5ft south swell, period is a short 8 seconds, with a light offshore breeze. The combined energy is moderate (535). The water is sitting at 69°, which is a whopping 7° warmer than normal – that’s very unusual, a proper tropical bath. But the forecast calls it “marginal,” so don’t get your hopes up. The wind is light and offshore early, which is a major positive for clean conditions, but the swell is short-period and messy. That Saturday afternoon falls apart with a cross-shore wind.

Sunday morning the 13th is similar – 6ft south swell, light offshore wind again, but still just poor surf.

After that, from Monday the 14th, things shift. The swell drops to 3ft, but the period stretches way out to 18 seconds. This is long-period groundswell. The combined energy jumps up to 758 (moderate energy) and stays in the 700s for a couple of days. However, it’s coming from the SW, which is cross-on at Caballeros. That clean, lined-up potential gets chopped up by the breeze. The wave state is “gentle cross-onshore and fairly choppy.” For a reef break like this, that long period means better shape if the wind cooperates, but it just doesn’t. Mornings offer a bit of hope with lighter wind, but the afternoons are blown out.

From the 16th of September right through to the 27th, the energy drops off significantly, and the wind stays stubbornly cross-on or onshore. There’s a brief moment on the morning of the 22nd with a 4ft south swell and light offshore wind, but it’s only a 7-second period, and it’s still “marginal.” The 23rd morning pops a 5ft SSW swell, but again – cross-on wind and poor conditions.

To be blunt, there’s no single day I’d tell you to circle on the calendar. The best bet is probably the Saturday morning of the 12th or Sunday morning of the 13th, just for the clean, offshore wind, but the waves are short and weak. The long-period groundswell from the 14th to 15th has the most energy, but the wind ruins it. The water is unseasonably warm, but that doesn’t help the surf.

If you’re a kite surfer, those days with the cross-on wind and moderate swell might look interesting. For a paddle surfer, this is a blank run. It’s not unusual for the area to have stretches like this. The forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it, but for now, I’d find something else to do.

Rusty.

Read more