Caballeros Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Alright, let’s break this one down for the Caballeros area. We’re looking at a 16-day stretch starting Thursday the 23rd of July and going through to Friday the 7th of August, and I gotta say – it’s mostly a quiet, mediocre run. The swell shows up, but it never really fires. Water temp’s pretty normal for the season, nothing wild.

First week, from Thursday the 23rd to Sunday the 26th: real small stuff. Thursday morning has a 2-foot swell from the southwest with a 24-second period – that’s a super long groundswell – and the combined energy is 756 (moderate). But it’s so tiny, just barely breaking on the reef at Caballeros. Wind is light onshore, so the surface is messy. Friday and Saturday aren’t any better: the swell bumps up to about 3 feet by Saturday afternoon with a 12-second period and energy at 1080 (moderate), but the wind stays light cross-onshore, so you’re looking at small, ripply waves. Sunday the 26th has around 3-foot swell and 968 (moderate) energy, but the wind picks up to 9 mph from the south, making it choppy.

Now, the real interest comes Monday the 27th of July. Morning has a 4-foot southwest swell with a 17-second period and energy of 1145 (moderate-to-strong). By afternoon, it’s 5 feet with a 16-second period and energy at 1315 (strong). That’s the biggest and most energetic swell of the whole outlook. The wind is light cross-onshore, so the waves on the reef will be reasonably clean and have some long, solid lines. The swell direction is SW, which isn’t ideal – the break prefers SSW – but it’s close enough to get some decent waves. Tuesday the 28th keeps the 5-foot swell with a 15-second period and strong energy (1140-1202), though the wind goes cross-shore in the afternoon, which can make it a little weird.

From Wednesday the 29th, things slide downhill. Swell drops to 5 feet and then 4 feet, period shortens to 13-12 seconds, energy falls into the moderate range (600-900). Winds stay light to gentle onshore or cross-onshore, so the waves are small and lumpy. By Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st, we’re down to 4-4 feet with 12-second periods and energy dropping below 500 – weak. Saturday and Sunday (1st and 2nd of August) see a small bump back to 4 feet with 12-second period from the south-southwest, energy 717 (moderate), but the wind is onshore again. The final run from Monday 3rd August to Friday 7th is mostly short-period windswell (7-8 seconds) and a short-lived 6-foot swell on Tuesday the 4th with an 8-second period and moderate energy (657) – sloppy and choppy.

My pick for the best window is Monday the 27th of July afternoon at Caballeros. That 5-foot southwest groundswell with a 16-second period and strong energy (1315) is the standout. Light cross-onshore wind means the surface will be clean enough on the reef. It’s not a perfect angle for the break, but for a long-period groundswell like this, a reef can give you some proper shape and power. Just don’t expect it to hold all week.

Bottom line: this is a 16-day outlook with a lot of flat, marginal days. The reef at Caballeros is fairly consistent, but the quality just isn’t there for most of it. Keep your eyes on Monday the 27th afternoon – that’s your best shot. Otherwise, it’s a quiet stretch. Forecasts can change, so don’t write it off completely, but for now, it’s a tough go.

Rusty.

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