Caballeros Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The 16-day window kicks off with a bit of a flat, frustrating stretch. To be straight with you, Friday the 7th and Saturday the 8th are write-offs. The swell is tiny and all crossed up, not worth getting wet for. We’re looking at a couple of days of small, weak surf with cross-onshore winds messing up any chance of a clean wave. It’s a slow start, but hang tight.

The first real pulse of energy shows up on Monday the 10th. Overnight, the swell builds to 5ft from the SSW, and the energy jumps to (1299) which is a solid step up. Caballeros (Big Island) is your go-to here. It’s a reef break that’s fairly consistent, and while the wind is still cross-onshore, it’s light. The water is sitting at 70°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so the boardies are fine. The SSW direction is right on the money for this spot, but the period is only 13 seconds, so it’s not a classic groundswell just yet. Still, it’s the best option on the board.

Tuesday the 11th sees the swell bump up to 6ft in the afternoon, with energy at (1390). This is the biggest of the first week. The wind stays light and cross-onshore, so it could be a bit lumpy, but there’s push behind it. This is a better day for the more experienced crew; anything over 5ft is starting to get real. The period is a touch longer at 14 seconds, which helps with shape.

The middle of the week drops back a bit, but there’s a sneaky good window around Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th. The swell is 4ft to 4ft, but the period jumps up to 18-19 seconds on Thursday morning. That’s a proper groundswell, even if the size is moderate. The energy is (1347) on Thursday afternoon, which is solid. Long-period swells like this can sometimes race down the reef, but at Caballeros, it should be peeling nicely. The wind is light cross-onshore, so expect some texture but overall clean enough.

The weekend of the 15th and 16th is nothing special – small, weak, and a bit messy. The energy just isn’t there. It’s a good time to tune up the board or check the tides.

Looking further out, the second week is a bit more uncertain, as always. The standout is Monday the 17th. The swell holds at 4ft from the SW, but the period stretches back to 15 seconds, and the energy is up around (1159). It’s a promising call, but the long-range forecasts are less reliable. Tuesday the 18th also looks okay, with similar conditions, but again, it’s a "wait and see" situation.

After that, it fades again. The last few days of the window, from the 20th onwards, are small and weak. The energy is dropping below (800), and the swell is back to 4ft or less. It’s not going to be worth the effort unless the forecasts shift.

So, the pick of the window is Tuesday the 11th for the biggest, most powerful swell of the period, and Thursday the 13th for the long-period, deeper water swell. Both days have light winds, which is a huge plus. Just be aware that the long-period Thursday swell might be a bit too straight for the beach breaks, but at this reef, it should be on.

Overall, there’s a couple of decent days hidden in there, but nothing epic. The water’s warm, the winds are mostly light, so if you’re desperate, you’ll find something. Otherwise, keep an eye on that Monday the 17th – it could be the sleeper.

Rusty.

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