Caballeros Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it.

The forecast for Caballeros is a tricky one. Honestly, it’s a run of marginal conditions from the start. You’re looking at a lot of cross-onshore wind, which is never going to give you that clean, crisp face you want. It’s going to be a bit lumpy and bumpy, and the tide is going to be a constant headache. The water here is a ridiculously warm 70° at the start, which is 9° above normal. That’s way out of the ordinary, so if you’re paddling out, you won’t need a bootie, that’s for sure.

The first few days are pretty uninspiring. Tuesday and Wednesday are small, with waves hovering around the 3ft to 5ft mark. The swell energy is weak to moderate, we’re talking 577 to 747 on the energy scale. The wind is light but it’s always coming from the wrong angles, messing up the surface. It’s not going to be a total write-off, but you’d be working hard for anything half-decent.

There’s a slight bump in energy on Thursday afternoon, with the swell pushing up to 5ft and the energy reading hitting 1328. That’s getting more into the moderate range, but the wind is still cross-on, and the period is a short 16 seconds, so it’s not going to be the most powerful stuff. It’s a bit of a tease, really.

The weekend drops back off again. The swell is smaller, dipping to 3ft on Sunday morning, and the energy is weak. The wind stays light, but it’s still cross-onshore, so the conditions are, well, marginal. The saving grace is that the period is a bit longer, 15 seconds, so it’s a bit more of a groundswell, but the size just isn’t there to make it worth your while.

Then we get to Monday the 10th. The energy jumps up to 1286 in the morning and then 1814 in the afternoon. That’s a solid step up. The swell comes in at 5ft, and with a period of 14 seconds, it’s starting to look more like a real swell. The wind is still cross-on, but it’s light. This is probably the first time you’d look at the forecast and think, "Alright, maybe." The direction is from the SSW, which is what the reef wants to see.

The next few days are a bit of a mixed bag. Tuesday the 11th has a bigger afternoon pulse at 6ft, but the wind is a bit stronger. Then it backs off again on Wednesday. The energy levels are all over the place, from a weak 589 to a moderate 1140. It’s just not consistent, and the wind is always there to put a bit of a chop on things.

The following week, from the 14th onwards, the pattern is more of the same. The swell is consistently around 4ft to 5ft, and the energy is moderate. The wind is still messing with things, though. There’s a real standout on the 17th and 18th, when the swell jumps to 7ft and 8ft. That’s a big jump, and the energy numbers are strong, reading 1777 and 1900. But the period is a short 9 to 10 seconds, which means it’s going to be a bit of a windswell, not a clean groundswell. At that size, over 8ft, it’s getting into expert territory. It’s going to be a powerful, messy, walled-up wave, and with that short period, it’s going to be a real battle. The wind is still onshore, so it’s going to be a full-on, messy session. I’d be thinking that this is more of a kite-surfing set-up than a paddle-surfing one, to be honest.

So, looking at the whole 16-day window, the best of it is probably the Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th. The swell is coming from the right direction, the energy is solid, and the wind is light, even if it is cross-on. It’s not going to be perfect, but it’s the least compromised of the lot. The bigger stuff on the 17th and 18th is promising, but it’s a long way out, and with that short period, it’s not going to be the kind of clean, powerful swell you’d want. Keep your expectations low, and you might get a few. But don’t be gutted if you decide to give it a miss.

Rusty

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