Bonza Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I'm not gonna lie to ya – the next 16 days at Bonza Bay are a real mixed bag, and you'll need to pick your moments. The first decent offering doesn't show up until the morning of Sunday the 5th, and even then, it's all about timing. There's a bit of a gap after that, with nothing really worth paddling out for until the following week.

Sunday morning, the 5th of July, is where it's at. We've got a clean 5ft SE swell rolling in with a solid 12-second period, giving it a nice bit of push. The combined energy is sitting at 634 (moderate), and with a light NNE breeze blowing cross-off, the surface is gonna be clean. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Bonza Bay is a river mouth, exposed to the S swell, and with an optimum swell from the South, this SE swell is in the right ballpark. Expect some fun, chest-to-head-high waves. Just a heads up, it can get a bit busy here sometimes, so you might have some company.

Monday the 6th drops right off. The swell fades to 3ft, and the energy drops to 203 (weak). Monday afternoon goes glassy, but it's pretty ordinary. Tuesday the 7th is tiny, with a 2ft SSW swell and a very long 14-second period. That long period will make for some drawn-out lines, but there's just not enough size to get excited about. The energy is a weak 182.

We get a bit of a spike on Wednesday the 8th, but the afternoon turns ugly with a fresh 22 mph cross-off and a 6ft swell that's only got a 7-second period – that's short-period wind slop, no good for a proper wave. The morning is a better bet with a 3ft SSW swell and clean conditions, but it's still marginal.

The big stuff starts showing up on Thursday the 9th. The morning has a solid 7ft S swell with a 12-second period, and the energy jumps to 1467 (strong). The wind is cross-off, keeping it clean. This is getting into the bigger range, so it's more for the experienced crew. By Thursday afternoon, it's up to 8ft, but the wind goes cross, creating some chop. Friday the 10th holds size at 8ft, but the wind is a mess – cross-onshore with rain showers. Not ideal.

Saturday the 11th is a write-off with strong onshore winds and rain. We're looking at poor conditions.

Then, a real standout. Sunday morning, the 12th of July. The swell has dropped a bit to 5ft from the S, with an 11-second period, and the energy is a moderate 733. But the wind – a light WSW cross-off – makes it glassy and clean. This is your best bet for the whole run. The waves will be well-shaped, and the paddling out will be easier with those longer gaps between sets. It's a river mouth, so that long-period energy will wrap in nicely. Get on it.

After that, it's a slow fade. Monday the 13th has a 6ft ESE swell, but the period is short at 9 seconds, so it'll be a bit lumpy. The rest of the week is a mix of cross-off winds and small, weak swells, nothing to write home about.

The following week gets interesting again. Friday the 17th of July afternoon sees a jump to 8ft SW swell with an 11-second period, and the energy is a strong 1647. The wind is cross-off, so it'll be clean. This is a big one for the experts.

But the big story is Saturday the 18th of July. The morning brings a massive 12ft SSW swell with a 11-second period and a combined energy of 4557 (very strong). The wind is offshore, 19 mph, so it'll be clean. However, the file says it's predicted to be too big for this break. This is a serious, life-threatening swell for the experienced only. If you're not a pro, don't even think about it. The afternoon is a mess, with a 22 mph cross wind making it lumpy.

The last few days see the swell drop back to 6ft and then 3ft by Monday the 20th. It's a whimper to end the run.

So, my pick: Sunday morning, the 12th of July. Clean, 5ft S swell, light offshore wind, and a moderate energy. That's the one to circle.

Rusty.

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