Back Strands Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a long 16-day window ahead, but I’ll be straight with you – for the most part, it’s a tough watch. The first decent surf doesn’t show up until the weekend of the 26th, but even then, the wind is gonna make a mess of it. There’s a little window of hope mid-week, but it’s small and fleeting.

Overall Pattern

The main event is a solid pulse of WNW swell that builds through Saturday the 26th and peaks on Sunday the 27th, with a whole lot of energy behind it. The combined energy readings are up there, hitting 804 Sunday morning and 838 Sunday afternoon. That’s some serious juice. But the problem is the wind. For the whole first week, it’s mostly cross-on from the west or northwest, keeping things choppy and lumpy. The water is sitting at 62°F, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so at least you won’t freeze your toes off.

The Only Real Window

Alright, let’s talk about the one spot that’s on the radar. Back Strands. This reef break is our only recommendation, and it’s fairly consistent, but it’s not without its quirks.

The surf starts to get serious on Saturday the 26th. Swell is 7ft from the WNW with a period of 10 seconds, and the energy is strong (804). That’s a decent size, but it’s a bit much for beginners. For the more experienced crew, the shape should be there, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph from the WNW, cross-on, making it lumpy. It’s a bit of a battle.

Sunday the 27th is the peak of the swell. We’re looking at 7ft again, but the energy is still pumping (838). The wind is still fresh and cross-on from the WNW. Honestly, with that much swell and that much cross-onshore wind, a beach break would be a mess, but Back Strands is a reef, so it might just hold up. Still, it’s not going to be pretty. If you’re a solid paddle surfer, you might find some grunty, sectiony waves.

The Mid-Week Clean-Up

Then we get a break. The wind finally swings to the SSW on Monday the 27th. It’s a 12 mph cross-offshore breeze, and the swell drops to 4ft from the WNW. The energy is moderate (335). The morning looks clean. This is your best shot of the whole run. The waves are smaller, but the conditions are actually surfable. It’s not a standout, but it’s the only time the stars align a little.

Tuesday the 28th is a step back. The wind goes cross-shore and the swell drops again. The rest of the week is a slow fade into tiny, weak waves with energy readings dropping below 90. By Wednesday afternoon the 29th, we get a brief moment of glassy conditions with 3ft swell, but it’s pretty ordinary.

The Second Week – A Dead Zone

From Thursday the 31st right through to the end of the forecast on Saturday the 8th of August, it’s basically a flat spell. The swell height drops to 1.0ft or less, the energy is in the single digits or low double digits, and the wind is all over the place. There’s one day on the 8th of August where we see a little bump of 3ft from the WNW, but it’s cross-on and choppy again. Not worth scrambling for.

Bottom Line

Look, if you’re desperate, your best bet is Monday the 27th of July in the morning at Back Strands. The swell is 4ft, the wind is cross-off, and it’s the cleanest it’s going to get. The bigger swell on the weekend is too wind-affected for a good time. After that, it’s a long, flat stretch. It’s a quiet period, but forecasts can change. For now, I’d be sharpening my fins and waiting for the next one.

Rusty.

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