Back Strands Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got to be straight with you – the next 16 days at Back Strands are looking pretty grim. The only real window of anything worth paddling out for is a very brief one on Thursday, 9 July, and even then, it’s not going to blow your mind.

Let’s start with the overall picture. From Friday, 10 July, right through to Wednesday, 22 July, and beyond, it’s a long run of poor to zero surf conditions. The swell barely shows up, and when it does, the wind is often onshore or cross-onshore, killing any chance of a decent wave. There’s a solid gap of 13 days with no real recommendations, so don’t hold your breath.

The best – and really the only – bright spot is Thursday morning, 9 July. We’ve got a small 3ft swell rolling in from the west with a 9-second period. The water is a warm 61°F, which is 4° warmer than normal for this time of year, so you won’t need a thick wetsuit. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the SSW at 6 mph, making for clean surf with just a few ripples. The combined energy is moderate (133), so there’s a little bit of push. It’s a reef break that’s fairly consistent, and it’s fairly exposed to the west, which suits the swell direction. Crowds are “sometimes” an issue, so you might not have it all to yourself. That said, the conditions are only “ordinary” – it’s surfable, but don’t expect any barrels.

Thursday afternoon sees the wind go glassy (WSW at 3 mph), but the swell stays the same size and the energy drops slightly (126). Still, a glassy afternoon on a tiny reef wave is a beautiful thing, even if it’s small.

From Friday morning, things fall apart. The wind shifts onshore, and the swell size and quality nosedive. By Saturday, 11 July, we’re down to 3ft with a cross-shore wind, and the energy is weak (110). The following days are just tiny dribbles of 0.7ft to 2ft, often with moderate to fresh onshore breezes. The period occasionally jumps to 12 or 13 seconds, like on Monday, 13 July afternoon, but the swell height is only 0.7ft – that’s just a lake-like ripple with no power (energy of 25).

If you’re a kite surfer, the stronger cross-offshore winds on those small days might be more interesting, but for paddle surfing, this is a lean stretch. The break is a reef, so the long-period swells we see later in the window (like 12 seconds on 17 July) would normally be better suited to a point or river mouth, but with the height so low, it’s a non-starter.

So, bottom line: if you’re desperate, Thursday morning or afternoon, 9 July, is your only chance at a surf. After that, save your energy and wait for the next forecast. The run of poor conditions is long, but forecasts can always change, so keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

Read more