Back Strands Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the menu for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – it's a bit of a slow burn. The first ten days or so are looking pretty grim, with only one real standout option way down the line. We're looking at a long stretch of small, choppy, and messy conditions from now until the end of July. The water is unusually warm right now, sitting at a very notable 3° warmer than average for this time of year, which is a real oddity.

For Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th, we're looking at tiny NW swell, around 1ft to 2ft, with a short period of 5 to 7 seconds. The wind is a cross-onshore breeze, making it choppy and not worth getting wet for. The combined energy is weak, just 30 to 46 (weak energy). This trend continues all the way through to Friday the 24th, with the swell barely flickering above 3ft and the wind never really cleaning up. The energy is weak, all below 100 (weak energy). It’s a real bust.

We finally see a pulse of energy arrive on Friday the 24th afternoon, with the swell building to 4ft from the W, period 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumping to 228 (moderate wave energy). But the wind is still a messy cross-onshore, so the surf quality is poor.

Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th start to look more interesting, but not for paddle surfing. The swell picks up to 5ft - 6ft from the W and WNW, with energy readings of 454 to 528 (moderate to strong wave energy). The problem is the wind is a fresh cross-shore to cross-onshore breeze, creating lumpy, cross-chop. At Back Strands, a reef setup, this is going to be a mess. Honestly, this looks more like a kite surfing session than a clean wave for a paddle board.

The trend continues into Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th, with strong swells of 5ft to 6ft and strong wind energy (348 to 588). The wind is strong and messy, making it a write-off for clean surfing.

Now, here’s the one potential highlight. The best day on offer looks to be Wednesday the 29th of July. The afternoon session is the real deal. The swell holds at a solid 7ft from the W with a 9-second period, pushing a combined energy of 800 (strong to very strong wave energy). The wind shifts to a light, cross-offshore breeze from the SSW, which should clean things up nicely. This is a reef break, so it can handle that size, but 7ft is getting into expert-only territory. It could be a ripper, but it's a long way off, so keep an eye on the forecast.

After that, things get messy again with onshore winds for the rest of the period. Thursday the 30th sees a big 7ft - 8ft WNW swell (combined energy 1040-1051), but the wind is cross-onshore again, ruining the party. The 31st of July and the 1st of August offer some smaller, cleaner-ish windows with light NE winds, but the swell is dropping fast and the quality is still marginal.

So, to sum it up: the first ten days are a total write-off. The only real standout is the afternoon of Wednesday the 29th of July at Back Strands, when the wind finally goes offshore. It’s a gamble, but it’s the only one worth taking.

Rusty.

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