Back Strands Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about Back Strands. This is a reef setup, and it’s the only spot we’ve got on the cards. The truth is, the next week and a half looks pretty grim. There’s a big gap of poor conditions straight up, so don’t bother paddling out until we get past the first week.

The water’s sitting at a very unusual 62°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a weird one.

Thursday 2 July kicks things off, but it’s a write-off. We’ve got a 5ft west swell with a 9-second period, but the wind’s howling 16 mph from the west, making it cross-on and choppy. The combined energy is moderate at 397. Just messy. Don’t even think about it.

Friday 3 July morning brings a drop to 3ft from the west, with a cleaner 10-second period. Wind is light from the SSE at 9 mph and cross-off, so it’s clean. The energy is weak at 183. It’s surfable, but very ordinary. The afternoon turns back to poor with a cross-shore chop.

Saturday 4 July is a no-go. Swell bumps up to 5ft–6ft from the west, period at 9 seconds, but the wind is fresh at 19–22 mph, making it lumpy and cross-onshore. Energy is moderate (416–461), but it’s for kite surfers, not paddlers.

Sunday 5 July through Tuesday 7 July stays poor. Swell drops from 4ft down to 3ft, all west, with short 8-second periods. Winds are cross or cross-on, keeping it choppy. Energy fades from 252 down to 108. No good.

Wednesday 8 July morning is a small highlight. The swell is only 3ft from the west, but the wind is dead calm – glassy. The period stretches to 9–10 seconds, and energy is weak at 139–151. Clean, but tiny. It’s surfable for a longboard or a foiler, but nothing exciting.

Thursday 9 July morning stays glassy with 3ft west swell and a 10-second period. Energy is 122. Still tiny, but clean.

Friday 10 July morning shows some promise. Swell is 3ft from the west-northwest, period at 11 seconds – that’s a touch longer, better shape. Wind is light and cross-off from the east-southeast at 6 mph. Clean waves. Energy is 198. This is the best small-wave window in the whole forecast.

Saturday 11 July afternoon: wind goes offshore from the southeast at 12 mph, clean, but swell drops to 3ft from the west with an 8-second period. Energy is only 86. Very weak.

Then we hit a dead zone from Sunday 12 July through Thursday 16 July. Swell is tiny – 1.0ft to 3ft – with short periods and poor or glassy conditions. Not worth a paddle.

Monday 13 July morning is the real standout, but it’s over a week away. A 5ft west swell arrives with a very long 13-second period. Wind is light and cross-off from the east-northeast at 6 mph. Clean. The combined energy jumps to a strong 649. This is the best surf of the whole outlook. But because it’s a long-period groundswell, it might break a bit straight at this reef unless the angle is just right. For experienced surfers who can work that west-northwest optimum direction, this is the one to circle on the calendar. Beginners should stay out – 5ft is manageable but the long period packs a punch.

From Tuesday 14 July onward, it fades back to tiny, clean slop.

So, bottom line: the first week is mostly junk. The best bet is Monday 13 July morning, with that 5ft west groundswell and clean conditions. Friday 10 July morning is your second option for small, clean waves. Everything else is flat or blown out.

Rusty.

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