Back Strands Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a seat. Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into the 16-day outlook for Back Strands. It’s a reef setup, fairly exposed to the west, and the optimum swell direction is straight from the west.

Honestly, I’m looking at this and it’s a tough one. We’ve got a solid block of nothing happening. For the first week and a half, from July 20th right through to the end of the month, the surf is just a write-off. The wave comment consistently says “poor surf conditions,” and the scores are all zeros. The wind is a mess—mostly cross-onshore or onshore, from the north-northwest or west, blowing at 9 to 15 mph. The swell is tiny, often 1 ft to 2 ft, with periods all over the place, from a weak 6 seconds up to a middling 11 seconds. The combined energy is pathetic, barely cracking 40 (47 on Monday morning, for example). There’s simply nothing to get excited about. It’s a flat spell.

Then, on the 24th of July, things start to look a bit different. The swell lifts to 5 ft from the west-northwest, with a 9-second period, and the wave energy jumps to a moderate 352. But the wind is still a 15 mph cross-onshore, and the conditions are “moderate cross-onshore and choppy.” It’s still rated poor. The next few days, July 25th to 29th, see the swell actually get some size—7 ft, 7 ft, 5 ft—with the energy climbing into the strong range (655, 752, 424). That’s a decent amount of water moving. But the wind stays on the wrong side of the ledger, mostly cross-onshore or onshore from the west-northwest. The period hangs around 9 to 10 seconds, which is a bit of a groundswell, but with that wind direction, it’s just going to be a messy, lumpy ocean. The wave comment never changes from “poor surf conditions.”

The real tragedy is that when the swell is big enough to ride, it’s likely too big for beginners (over 5 ft, and for a couple of days over 8 ft, which is expert-only territory), and the wind completely ruins it. For a reef break, you need it clean to make the most of the shape. With this constant cross-onshore chop, it’s going to be a battle.

The stretch from July 20th to 31st is a brutal 11-day gap with no good surf. The last week of the outlook, from August 1st to 4th, the swell drops back down to 2 ft to 3 ft. The wind does finally turn cross-offshore from the south on August 2nd, and the conditions are described as “clean.” That’s the only glimmer of hope, but at 3 ft and a short 7-second period, the energy is weak (72 to 77). It’s better than a flat day, but nothing to call home about.

The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

So, what’s the standout? Honestly, there isn’t one. The best on offer is probably the morning of August 2nd, with clean conditions and a tiny 3 ft south-southwest wind swell. If you’re desperate for a paddle, it’s an option. But for a proper session, this forecast is a dud. It’s a blank run, and for this area, it’s not unusual. The conditions just aren’t aligning. Let’s hope the next forecast brings some better news.

Rusty.

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