Back Strands Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve had a good look at the charts for Back Strands, and I’ll be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch. We’ve got a solid 16-day window to work with, but the first week is mostly a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. There’s a real gap from now through to the end of July with hardly a sniff of quality. From the start of the forecast period on July 21st, we’re looking at days of onshore winds and tiny, weak swell. The water’s sitting at 63°, which is a whopping 5° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a very notable anomaly and feels more like a mid-summer bath than a typical July.

The real kicker is the consistent poor conditions. The combined swell energy is mostly weak, sitting in the double digits (between 11 and 78) for the first ten days, barely enough to get a wave on a reef like this. Winds are pinned from the west and northwest, and they’re cross-onshore or onshore, making things choppy. The best we get in that first week is a ‘poor surf conditions’ tag with zero scores.

There is a brief flicker of something a bit cleaner around the 28th and 30th of July mornings. On the 28th, a light SSW breeze gives us a cross-offshore wind and clean conditions, with a 4ft swell from the WNW (combined energy of 193 – moderate). That’s a window for a few surfable waves, but it’s still very ordinary, and the swell is a bit short of juice. Then on the 30th of July morning, another light southerly cross-off keeps it clean with a 3ft WNW swell (combined energy of 129 – still on the lower side). These are your only real chances in the first two weeks.

For a standout, if you’re desperate for a surf, the Tuesday the 28th morning is your best bet. The wind is light and cross-offshore, which will make that reef look glassy, and the 4ft swell from the WNW has enough period (9 seconds) to hold a line. It won’t be epic, but it’s the cleanest conditions of the whole run. Keep in mind, the optimum swell direction for Back Strands is from the west, so the WNW is slightly angled but still okay.

Looking into early August, the pattern flips to more southerly winds, which are cross-offshore for this spot, but the swell size drops right off. The 2nd of August morning shows a clean, cross-offshore breeze, but the swell is a tiny 1ft from the NW with a 6-second period (combined energy of just 15). That’s barely a ripple and the short period won’t hold up on the reef. The 5th of August morning picks up a bit of a stronger cross-offshore breeze (15 mph from the SSW) and a 2ft W swell, but the wind is moderate, so it’s not ideal.

Honestly, for most of this 16-day run, the conditions are better suited for a day on the sand than a day on the water. The northeast corner of this area might be more interesting for a kite session with that persistent west wind and occasional bump in the swell, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a waiting game. There are patches of clean conditions, but the swell just isn’t there to back it up.

I’d keep an eye on that Tuesday 28th morning – it’s the only real standout in the lot.
Rusty.

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