Back Strands Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get this out there. I’ve been staring at the charts for Back Strands, and I’ll be honest with you, it’s a tough stretch. We’ve got a 16-day window, but the surf is mostly flat and the conditions are messy. Don’t get too excited yet, but there is a glimmer of something big way down the line.

For the first week, it’s pretty grim. We’re talking knee-to-waist high slop, if that. The energy is weak, in the 50s to 100s (56-104), which is just nothing. Wind is all over the place, and when it’s not cross, it’s onshore. The water temp is 62°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s one small win, but it’s not enough to make this stuff worth paddling out for. You’d be fighting for a crumbly closeout.

Things actually get a bit dangerous mid-week, around Tuesday the 18th. The swell jumps to 8ft at 10-11 seconds, with a strong 1375-1456 energy, but the wind is howling at 25 mph straight onshore. It’s going to be a complete mess. That’s a washing machine – more interesting for the kite surfers than for us. After that, it drops but stays poor and small for the rest of the week and into the next.

Now, for the second week, it’s mostly a write-off. There are days on end, from around Saturday the 23rd until the 27th, where there’s almost nothing rideable. We’re talking ankle-biters. If there’s no swell, there’s no surf.

But hold on. Look at the end of the window. Friday the 28th and Saturday the 29th. This is the one to keep an eye on. Friday morning shows a serious pulse of W swell at 13ft with a 14 second period. That’s a big, strong, very long-period groundswell. The energy readings are massive (5893). It’s going to be well overhead and powerful. The wind is light, but cross-on. This is a big, serious swell.

Back Strands (a fairly consistent reef break) can handle this kind of size, but the swell direction is optimal from the W and this is dead west. The main caveat is the period. These long-period swells, over 15 seconds, they can be tricky at beach breaks, but for a reef like this, it can be a dream. However, the wind will be up that afternoon, and it’s likely going to be a zoo out there given the crowds are “sometimes” around. This is an expert-only day. The forecast is far out, so treat it as promising but not a sure thing. Saturday morning the 29th still has some size, 8ft, with light winds, but it’s dropping.

So, the long and short of it: the next near fortnight is a dud. Save your energy. The one real standout, the one worth planning for, is that big Friday the 28th swell. But it’s a long way off, and it’s going to be heavy. Keep your eyes on it.

Rusty.

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