Ambinanibe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a solid run of surf coming up at Ambinanibe, but it’s not all plain sailing. The first few days are the real deal, with a strong, long-period SSW groundswell and near-perfect conditions. Then it fades and gets messy, with a long dry spell in the middle before a possible return to form in the second week. Let’s break it down.

The pattern kicks off Friday morning, July 10th, with a sweet 4 ft SSW swell running at a very long 16 seconds. The water temp is about average for the time of year, which is a nice bonus. Combined energy is moderate at 750, and with glassy conditions from a light NW wind, it’s the kind of clean, lined-up swell that’ll have you grinning. Ambinanibe is a consistent, exposed break, and crowds are sometimes a thing, so early is your best bet. This is a standout for the period.

Friday afternoon sees the swell bump up to 5 ft, but the wind swings onshore from the SSE at 6 mph, killing the vibe. The session gets a bit lumpy, and the tide might be a factor. Not one to rush for.

Saturday morning, July 11th, is the real jewel. The swell jumps to 8 ft from the SSW, still at a very long 16 seconds, and the combined energy is strong at 2758. Glassy conditions again with a slight NE air. This is excellent surf, but it’s big – over 8 ft means it’s for experienced surfers only. The point break nature of this swell at Ambinanibe should handle the long period better than a beach break, so expect powerful, well-shaped waves. This is the other big standout.

Saturday afternoon gets tricky. The swell holds at 8 ft, but a cross-shore ENE wind at 12 mph chops it up, and the conditions are marginal. The period drops to 15 seconds, still a groundswell, but the wind is a problem.

Sunday morning, July 12th, offers a good session. The swell drops to 7 ft, still from the SSW at 14 seconds, with a light cross-offshore breeze from the NE at 6 mph. Combined energy is moderate at 1482, and the conditions are clean. It’s still a solid size, but not as intimidating as Saturday. Crowds might be building.

By Sunday afternoon the wind picks up cross-shore again, and the quality fades.

From Monday, July 13th, through to Thursday, July 16th, the surf drops off fast. The swell shrinks from 6 ft down to 1 ft, the wind is strong and cross-shore, and the combined energy falls to weak levels (down to 45). There’s a stretch of several days with no real recommendation. The forecasts are poor, and the conditions are messy. A kite surfer might find some fun in the cross-shore wind, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a write-off.

Friday morning, July 17th, shows a glimmer of hope. A small 2 ft S swell at 13 seconds returns, with glassy conditions from a light WNW wind. Combined energy is weak at 280, but it’s clean. A tiny session for the keen.

Saturday morning, July 18th, is the best of the second week. A 5 ft S swell at 10 seconds, with a cross-offshore breeze from the NE at 9 mph. Combined energy is moderate at 536, and the conditions are clean. It’s not the power of the first weekend, but it’s a solid, fun size with clean faces. A decent option, but less certain.

The rest of the second week into July 25th looks mostly poor, with small swell, strong cross-shore winds, and very little energy. There’s a bump in the swell on July 19th (6 ft from the SSE at 14 seconds), but the wind is cross-shore and the conditions are marginal. Not a standout.

So, the true standouts are Friday morning, July 10th, and Saturday morning, July 11th. Get on them. The long-range stuff is promising but less certain.

Rusty.

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