Ambinanibe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what the surf’s doing for us at Ambinanibe over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag to start, but the back half of the run has some serious potential for those with the skills to handle it.

The week kicks off pretty flat and uninspiring. Tuesday the 14th has some cross-off wind on a 6 ft SSE swell, but the energy is mediocre (882) and the wind is a bit of a hassle. The afternoon is a write-off. We limp through Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th with tiny, knee-high dribble under 3 ft – clean but barely worth paddling out for. The combined swell energy is way down in the 50s and 70s, so we’re looking at a couple of days of nothing.

Friday the 17th morning is the first glimmer of life. The wind goes light and cross-off, and we get a 3 ft S swell with a solid 13-second period. The energy bumps up to a moderate 211. It’s clean and should offer a few fun ones, but it’s still on the smaller side.

Then Saturday the 18th: the morning session is glassy as a mirror. The swell is small at 2 ft, but that 16-second period is a true groundswell. This kind of long-period energy can be a bit straight and walled-up at a beach break, but it’ll have power and clean lines. It’s a tricky call but worth a look if you’re patient.

Now, the real standout is Sunday the 19th. Forget the ordinary stuff – Sunday morning is the moment. We’ve got a clean, cross-off breeze and a 5 ft SSW swell running with an incredible 18-second period. The combined energy rockets up to 1537 – that’s serious, powerful juice. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. The wave quality is there; it’s just a matter of the wave’s shape handling that long period. This is the pick of the first week. Water temp is about 73°F, which is pretty average for the time of year, so that’s not a concern.

The run continues strong. Monday the 20th morning is glassy again, with a solid 8 ft SSW groundswell (13s period, 1931 energy). That’s getting into expert territory size-wise, but perfect conditions for it. Tuesday the 21st morning is dead glass, 7 ft SSW swell, windy as calm. Wednesday the 22nd morning is another glassy morning with 8 ft SSW swell. These mornings are all for experienced surfers only; beginners will find it too heavy.

Moving into the second week, the consistency holds, but the winds turn more cross-shore or cross-off, and the standout moment is a bit more spread out. Thursday the 23rd through Saturday the 26th sees solid 5 ft to 5 ft SSW swells under cross-off winds, keeping things clean but a bit more ordinary. The energy ranges from 1000 to 1400, so still plenty of push.

The next big spike is on Sunday the 26th afternoon – a 4 ft SSW swell but with a crazy 20-second period. That is a very, very long period swell. It produces 1421 energy. It’ll be clean lines but likely very straight, so you need a point or reef to make the most of it – at a beach break it could be a bit frustrating.

Monday the 27th morning sees another solid 8 ft SSW SSW swell (15s period, 2768 energy), but the wind is a cross-shore with light rain. The size is there for experts. Tuesday the 28th is a different story – we get a 10 ft SSE swell, but the break is predicted to be too big for it. That’s a warning sign; the sets will be washing through and dangerous. Best avoided.

Wednesday the 29th morning is the last decent window, with a 8 ft SSE swell under a cross-off breeze and clean conditions. That could give a few solid waves.

So, to wrap it up: the first few days are a bust. The real action kicks off on Sunday the 19th morning at Ambinanibe, with that punchy 5 ft SSW groundswell and clean glassy conditions. That is the absolute highlight. After that, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday mornings the following week offer excellent, powerful surf for experts. The long-range stuff is promising but remember – forecasts this far out are less certain.

If the swell jumps over 8 ft like it does on the 28th and 29th, it’s exclusive to experts. The early morning windows with glass or cross-off winds are the only ones worth your time. A few days here will be more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers, especially when the wind is strong and cross, like on Thursday the 23rd afternoon.

Keep your eyes on the 19th.

Rusty.

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