Ambinanibe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for Ambinanibe over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the first week is pretty grim. There’s a long dry spell with nothing worthwhile. The first day that even looks like it could be worth paddling out is Friday the 4th of September, and even then it’s just marginal. The water temp is sitting at 71°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a decent spring suit if you’re heading out.

We start seeing some real energy building over the weekend, but it’s still messy. Sunday the 6th of September has a south-southwest swell around 3ft to 4ft with a period of 14 to 15 seconds – that’s a nice long groundswell, but the wind is onshore from the southeast, ruining the surface. The combined energy gets strong on Sunday afternoon at 1175, but the quality just isn't there.

Now, the one true standout in this whole outlook is Tuesday the 8th of September. The morning sees a massive 13ft swell from the south with a 19-second period – that’s very long period groundswell carrying huge energy (10881). The wind is cross-shore from the east-northeast at 16 mph. That said, this is way too big for the average punter. This is strictly for experts only. The afternoon drops to 10ft from the south-southwest at 17 seconds, still enormous but the wind picks up to 19 mph cross-shore. The break is exposed and this much juice on a beach setup will be a beast. Honestly, on that Tuesday, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing – it’s that raw.

Beyond that, Wednesday the 9th of September morning sees the swell drop back to 5ft from the SSW with a 15-second period, and the wind is a clean cross-off from the northeast at 16 mph. The combined energy is 1341 – still moderate to strong – and the surface is clean. That’s the most realistic session for intermediate surfers looking for decent shaped waves, though the waiting period between sets will be long.

After that, the surf fades fast. The second week is patchy. There’s a flicker of hope on Sunday the 13th of September morning with a 2ft SSW swell packing a 16-second period (372 combined energy) and glassy offshore wind from the west-southwest at 3 mph – that’s a clean, sleepy morning but the swell is tiny. Tuesday the 15th of September has a 8ft south swell at 16 seconds, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore at 19 mph and the combined energy is 3177 – strong, but lumpy.

The best bet for experienced surfers in the second week is Wednesday the 16th of September morning: 6ft from the south, 14-second period, clean cross-off wind from the northeast at 9 mph, and a combined energy of 1548. That’s a solid session, but it’s a long way out – so keep an eye on it, ’cause long-range calls like that can change.

So, if you’re an expert, circle Tuesday the 8th of September. If you’re intermediate, aim for the morning of Wednesday the 9th of September. The rest is either too big, too small, too windy, or too far away to get excited about right now. The crowds at Ambinanibe can show up sometimes, but on those bigger days it’ll thin out.

Rusty.

Read more