Whale Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Alright, we’ve got a bit of a slow starter here. The first decent window is Wednesday morning but it’s only a 2 out of 10, so let’s be real – it’s a bit of a marginal session. The first real standout is going to be a little further out.

For the first proper good surf, you’re looking at Thursday morning the 16th at Whale Rock. This is a reef break, so you need to know what you’re doing – it’s for advanced surfers only. The swell is coming from the east at 5 ft, with a period of 11 seconds, giving it some decent push. The combined energy is moderate (587). Water temp is sitting at 70°, which is about normal for this time of year. The wind is glassy, pure offshore from the SSE at 3 mph, so the surface will be super clean. It’s not the biggest swell, but it’s a nice, clean combo. Keep in mind it’s inconsistent, so you’ll be waiting for sets, but when they come, they’ll be worth it.

The Thursday afternoon the 16th session is a bit smaller at 4 ft, and the wind swings cross-on, so it’s less appealing. The Friday the 17th is a drop-off, with 4 ft and a cross-shore wind, so nothing special.

Now, Saturday morning the 18th has a 4 ft south swell with a 13-second period, but the wind is cross-on from the NE at 9 mph, and the combined energy is moderate (778). The commentary says “poor surf conditions,” so give it a miss.

The next real standout is Monday morning the 20th. Early session, the swell drops to 4 ft, but it’s coming from the SSW at 12 seconds, and the wind is glassy from the SSE at 3 mph. Combined energy is moderate (670). This is clean, smooth, and the commentary says “expect very good surf conditions.” It’s a small wave, but for a log or a fish, it’ll be super fun. The crowd profile says “sometimes,” so it’s not a zoo, but you might have a few friends out.

The biggest highlight of the whole forecast is Wednesday morning the 22nd. Whale Rock is going to see a 6 ft SSW swell, with a 14-second period, so it’s a proper groundswell. The combined energy is strong (1465). The wind is glassy from the east at 3 mph. The commentary says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is a top-tier call. The long period groundswell will be breaking a bit straight on a beach break, but here at a reef, it’ll hold up nicely. If you’re an advanced surfer, this is the morning to circle.

Thursday the 23rd gets a bit wild. The morning has a 8 ft SSW swell, with 8-second period, so it’s a short-period, chunky windswell, and the wind is cross-off from the SW at 16 mph. The combined energy is moderate (868), but it’s a bit messy. The afternoon jumps to 12 ft from the SSW at 13 seconds, with a fresh cross-shore wind of 19 mph. Combined energy is massive (4511). That’s a lot of power, but it’s not clean – more of a specialist session for the chargers.

Friday the 24th morning has a 7 ft SSW swell, 15-second period, and a cross-shore wind from the NE. Combined energy is strong (2005). It’s a powerful swell, but the wind isn’t perfect. The afternoon drops to 6 ft with a 16-second period, but the wind goes cross-on, so it’s a write-off.

From Saturday the 25th through to the end of the month, the swell stays small, mostly under 5 ft, and the wind is often cross or onshore. There’s a small window on Tuesday morning the 28th with a 4 ft SSW swell and a 19-second period, which is a very long period, but the wind is cross-shore. The energy is moderate (908). For a small wave, the period is interesting, but it’s not going to be a classic.

The final week has a few small pulses, but nothing that screams “go.” The cleanest conditions are gone, and the onshore winds take over. The last few days, from the 27th on, are mostly poor.

So, your best bet in the whole 16-day window is Wednesday morning the 22nd for the experienced crew, and Monday morning the 20th for a smaller, cleaner session. Thursday morning the 16th is the first decent one but it’s inconsistent. The second week is a bit of a write-off, with small, poor conditions.

Stay safe out there, and paddle hard.

- Rusty

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