Whale Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking at Whale Rock.

Overall, the forecast shows a lot of onshore and cross-shore wind, with small, weak swell for most of the window. The first week is mostly marginal to poor, but there’s a promising pulse of solid groundswell for the second week. The combined swell energy is moderate to weak for most of the run, with a few stronger readings late in the period.

The water temperature is sitting at 70°, which is about average for the time of year.

We kick off on Tuesday the 14th of July, but it’s not worth paddling out. The wind is a moderate cross-onshore from the NE at 12 mph, and the swell is a messy 7 ft from the east at 9 seconds. The combined energy is 747 (moderate), but the conditions are poor. That continues through Wednesday and Thursday – small, weak swell around 4 ft to 6 ft, with cross-off or cross-shore winds, but the scores are all low. It’s just not coming together.

Friday the 17th sees the swell drop further to 4 ft to 4 ft, and the combined energy drops to 370-765 (weak to moderate). Still marginal. Saturday the 18th is a write-off: moderate to fresh cross-onshore winds from the NE at 12-19 mph, and the swell is small and lumpy.

Sunday the 19th of July offers a glimmer. The morning is clear with a light cross-shore breeze from the SSW at 3 mph, and a 4 ft swell from the SE at 13 seconds. The combined energy hits 714 (moderate). By the afternoon, the swell picks up to 5 ft from the SE at 13 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 1095 (moderate). The wind is light, and it’s the best of a bad week. Still, the scores are only marginal.

Monday the 20th is similar, small and light, but nothing special.

Now, Tuesday the 21st of July is the standout. The morning is glassy – zero wind, clear skies, and the combined swell energy is 576 (moderate). The swell is a clean 4 ft from the SSW at 12 seconds. It’s an inconsistent reef break, so don’t expect waves every set, but if you time it right, the conditions will be very good. The afternoon sees a bigger 5 ft swell from the SSW at 15 seconds, but the wind turns cross-onshore from the ENE, making it choppy.

Wednesday the 22nd of July is the big one. The morning has a solid 8 ft swell from the SSW at 16 seconds, with a combined energy of 2861 (very strong). The wind is a light cross-onshore from the ENE, so it’s a bit rippled, but the energy is huge. The afternoon is the real highlight: 7 ft from the SSW at 15 seconds, combined energy of 1948 (strong), and a light cross-offshore breeze from the SSW at 3 mph. The conditions are clean. This is for experienced surfers only – 7 ft is pushing it for many, and with that long period (15 seconds), it’ll be powerful and lining up on the reef. Crowds are possible, but the quality will be worth it.

Thursday the 23rd holds strong with an 8 ft SSW swell at 15 seconds in the morning, combined energy of 3339 (very strong), but the wind is a moderate cross-offshore from the SW at 16 mph. It’s still clean, but this is a big, powerful groundswell – only for the experts. The afternoon drops to 8 ft, but the wind turns cross-shore and lumpy.

After that, the swell fades. Friday the 24th to Sunday the 26th sees small, poor conditions with onshore winds and weak energy. Monday the 27th of July has a tiny 2 ft swell from the SSW at 14 seconds, but it’s clean with a light cross-offshore wind. Not much on offer.

Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th are poor, with onshore winds and messy surf.

So, the best on offer is the afternoon of Wednesday the 22nd of July. It’s a powerful, clean groundswell on the reef – a proper session for the advanced crew. The glassy morning of Tuesday the 21st is the pick for smaller, cleaner conditions, but it’s inconsistent. Everything else is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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