Whale Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a bit of a tricky outlook ahead for Whale Rock. There’s only one real standout session in the entire 16-day window, and it comes right at the beginning—so you’ve got to be quick if you want to get in on it.

Saturday 4th July morning is the pick of the forecast. The water’s sitting at 71°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so it’s a nice little treat. We’re looking at a solid 8 ft swell out of the SSE, with a period of 12 seconds—that’s proper groundswell with good energy behind it. Combined swell energy is strong at 1985, so there’s plenty of push. Wind is glassy—light SSW at 3 mph—so the surface will be clean and smooth. All this is setting up excellent conditions, but this break is an advanced reef setup that’s inconsistent, so you need to know what you’re doing. It’s exposed and picks up that SSE swell nicely. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, but with the size and the level required, it shouldn’t be too packed.

Later on Saturday afternoon, the swell drops a touch to 7 ft, same SSE direction, but the wind swings SE at 6 mph and starts coming cross-on, putting a few bumps on the face. Still surfable if you’re keen, but it’s not the same quality as the morning.

From Sunday 5th July right through until Tuesday 14th July, it’s a long, drawn-out period of poor conditions. Swell heights jump around, but the wind is nearly always cross, cross-on, or too strong, and the quality ratings are low. There’s really nothing worth paddling out for. Even when we get a small 3 ft glassy spell on Monday 6th July morning, the energy is weak (180) and the waves are ordinary.

Thursday 9th July morning brings a bit of a tease—7 ft SSW swell with a long 15-second period and clean cross-off winds. The energy is strong at 1784, but the forecast says marginal, and the tide or something else is questionable. If you’re an advanced local and feeling optimistic, it might be worth a look, but I wouldn’t plan around it. The same goes for Friday 10th July morning with 8 ft SSW swell and clean cross-off winds (1991 energy)—again, marginal conditions.

Saturday 11th July sees the swell up to 8 ft, but ENE winds at 16 mph make it choppy and cross-on—not good for surfing. That theme continues right through to the middle of the month.

Finally, on Wednesday 15th July morning, we get a little flicker of hope. A 4 ft SSE swell with a 9-second period and glassy, calm winds. The combined energy is moderate at 376, and the forecast says “expect good surf conditions.” It’s small and the period is short, but for a change, the surface will be clean and there’s no wind. It’s a beginner-friendly size, too. The only catch is it’s inconsistent at Whale Rock, so you might have to sit and wait.

After that, the swell drops into the tiny range for the rest of the outlook, with weak energy and cross or onshore winds. Sunday 19th July morning has a 4 ft easterly swell with 8-second period and clean cross-off winds, but the energy is only moderate (440) and the period is short—not much to get excited about.

So overall, if you can get out on Saturday 4th July morning, that’s your moment. The rest is mostly a write-off, with just a small window of hope on Wednesday 15th July morning for a clean, small session. Keep in mind this break rarely fires, so that Saturday morning is a true standout.

Rusty.

Read more