Whale Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for our local stretch.

Honestly, this forecast is a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a big run of small, messy or just plain poor conditions through the first week, but then a couple of really promising windows pop up toward the end of the second week that could be the real deal. Just be prepared for a lot of “meh” before the “hell yeah.”

Starting things off, we’ve got Whale Rock coming into Friday, July 10th. The swell is a solid 8 ft from the SSW, with a period of 14 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell with some real grunt. The combined energy is a hefty 2822, so there’s plenty of power in the water. But the wind is a cross-shore SSW breeze at 9 mph, and the water temperature is sitting at 71°, which is about a degree and a half warmer than usual for this time of year. The problem is it’s a marginal surf forecast with questionable tide conditions, so it’s not going to be clean. This is an advanced reef break, so if you’re a beginner, stay well away – 8 ft over a reef is not your playground. Saturday morning, July 11, drops a touch to 7 ft S swell with a 13-second period, and the wind is lighter but still cross-shore. The energy is down to 1379, so it’s weaker. Still, the forecast is marginal. Sunday the 12th is a write-off with rain showers, onshore wind, and a messy 5 ft swell.

There’s a bit of a gap here with nothing really worth jumping in for. Monday morning, July 13, we get a tiny 5 ft E swell, but the period is a short 8 seconds. The energy is a weak 495. The wind is glassy though, which is rare, so the surface will be clean. But the waves will be weak and fat. That’s the only glimmer until Wednesday morning, July 15. That morning is a standout early in the period. We’ve got a 6 ft E swell with a 10-second period, so the shape should be better, and the combined energy is 661. The wind is glassy again, and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the best bet for the first week. The crowd situation at Whale Rock is only “sometimes,” so you might have it to yourself. But it’s an advanced break, so it’s not for everyone.

The rest of that week and into the next is a bit of a desert. Thursday, July 16, is marginal, and Friday the 17th is a loss with a strong NE wind creating chop. Saturday the 18th gets a bit bigger with an 8 ft SSW swell in the afternoon, but the wind is a fresh 22 mph, making a lumpy mess. The energy is 1410, but it’s not surfable. Sunday morning, July 19, is interesting. We’ve got an 8 ft SSW swell with a very long 15-second period, and the energy is massive at 3021. The wind is light and cross-shore, and the forecast is “marginal” but scores a 4, which is the highest all period. This is a true standout for experts. That long period, groundswell, will be walling up, but it’s best for a reef or point break. Whale Rock is a reef, so that’s a good match. The crowd is “sometimes,” so you might have it to yourself if you’re keen.

Then, Monday morning, July 20, is another major highlight. The swell is 7 ft from the S, with a 12-second period, and energy is 1238. The wind is glassy, and the forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is a clean, powerful wave for the advanced crew. The 7 ft is on the edge of being too big for beginners, so only the solid surfers should be out.

The very end of the period, Wednesday, July 22, is a bit of a tease. The swell is 8 ft from the SSW with a 17-second period, and the energy is a massive 3536. But the wind is onshore and choppy, so it’s a write-off. Thursday morning, July 23, is back to a 6 ft swell with a 14-second period, and the wind is cross-shore, but the afternoon cleans up with a cross-off breeze and a “very good” forecast. That’s your last call.

Overall, the best on offer is the glassy, clean windows on Wednesday morning, July 15, for the weaker but cleaner E swell, and then the Sunday morning, July 19, and Monday morning, July 20, for the bigger, more powerful groundswell with light winds. The 8 ft+ stuff is strictly for experts. Don’t get your hopes up for the first few days or the middle of the second week. It’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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