Whale Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mate, let’s break it down in feet and miles per hour. This is your local report from me, Rusty.

Alright, I’ve been pouring over the charts for Whale Rock, and it’s a tough stretch ahead. We’ve got a 16-day window, but the first real chance of anything surfable doesn’t show up until early on Saturday, August 10th. There’s a big dry spell from now until then, so don’t bother waxing up just yet.

The main issue is a lot of wind and swell that just doesn’t play nice together. The water temp is around 70°, which is about average for this time of year, nothing weird.

The one and only highlight in this whole period is the early morning of Saturday, August 10th. We’re looking at a solid 8 feet of swell coming from the SSE, but the period is a short 8 seconds – that’s wind swell, not groundswell, so it’ll be a bit choppy and lack that deep-water energy. The combined energy is moderate (695). The problem is the wind is a cross-shore from the SSW at 18 mph, creating a lumpy cross-chop. It’s borderline, but it’s the best we’ve got. This is a reef break, so it’s for advanced surfers only at this size, and it can get crowded here sometimes. The swell is coming from the SSE, but the break likes it from the S, so it’s not perfect.

Later that afternoon, the swell drops to 8 feet from the S with an 8-second period, and the energy jumps way up to a strong 1238, but the wind is still cross-shore and the conditions are messy. It’s marginal.

After that, it’s a long, ugly stretch. From Sunday the 11th right through the rest of the month, every single forecast says poor surf conditions. The winds are mostly cross-onshore or onshore, often strong, and the swell is either too small or too jumbled. You’ll see a day like Wednesday the 12th with 8 feet of swell, but it’s paired with a nasty 18 mph cross-onshore wind, making it a lumpy mess. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

The last week of the forecast is particularly weak. Swell heights drop below 3 feet, periods are short, and the wind is still messy. The combined energy values are tiny, sometimes in the double digits (like 14 or 15), which is barely a ripple. The wave comment says “poor surf conditions” almost every single time.

If you’re an expert looking for a challenge, maybe the morning of August 10th is your window, but don’t expect anything clean. For everyone else, this is a blank run. The consistency here is listed as “inconsistent,” so a poor run like this isn’t totally unusual for this spot. But forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

Read more