Villa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Rusty here. Let’s be real about this one. The forecast for Villa is a tough stretch for the next 16 days. The surf is on offer, but it’s almost always messy, with the wind blowing cross-on from the south or south-southwest, and the wave quality is just not there. The best you can hope for is a few sessions where the wind drops light and the wind state is a bit more manageable, but there’s no standout window that’s going to get your heart pumping.

Right now, on Friday the 4th, we’ve got a solid 5ft of SW groundswell rolling in at a very long 16-second period. The combined energy is strong at 1363, but the wind is a cross-on from the SSE at 6 mph, so it’s already a little choppy. The water is a notable 69°, which is 7° warmer than normal for this time of year – really unusual. That’s a lot of warmth for a reef break. By the afternoon, the wind picks up to 9 mph and it gets fairly choppy. The swell stays around 5ft, but the period drops to 15 seconds.

Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th see the swell drop from 5ft down to 3ft, with periods shortening to 13-14 seconds. The cross-on wind never lets up, and the combined energy drops from 815 down to 751. This is marginal at best.

Monday the 7th is the best day for wind, with a light offshore wind from the SSW in the morning at 6 mph and a clean-looking wind state. The swell is only 3ft, though, with a very long 16-second period. That’s a long period for such a small wave – it will be fat and slow, but possibly glassy. The combined energy is weak at 670. The afternoon sees the wind swing back to cross-on, so the morning is the only window, and it’s still a gamble.

From Tuesday the 8th through to Friday the 11th, the swell sits between 3ft and 4ft, with periods of 13-15 seconds, but the wind is always cross-on or onshore, and the combined energy stays weak (under 830). The forecasts are all “marginal” or “poor.” The afternoon of the 10th gets a moderate breeze at 16 mph – that’s a write-off.

Saturday the 12th sees a change in the swell direction to SSW and then S, with a very short period of only 8 seconds. The swell height bumps up to 4ft in the morning, but the wind is cross-on. The combined energy is low at 430. This is a short-period, wind-affected mess. The afternoon has a light offshore wind, but the swell is only 4ft from the S at 8 seconds – junky and weak.

The second week, from the 13th to the 19th, is a slow grind. Swell heights are mostly 2ft to 5ft, with periods swinging between 8 seconds and 18 seconds, but the wind is almost always cross-on. The combined energy never breaks 500. The 18th and 19th see a bit more size at 5ft from the S, but with that 8-second period, it’s short and weak, and the wind is still cross-on. There’s nothing to get excited about.

For a reef break, the long-period swells we see in the first week (14-16 seconds) could be good if the wind was right, but it’s always cross-on. The break is “very consistent,” but that doesn’t help when the quality is poor. The crowds are “often” present, so even on a small, messy day, you might have company. For advanced surfers, it’s a frustrating run of nearly there.

If you’re a kite surfer, the setup on the 12th and the 18th-19th with the stronger cross-on winds and short-period, chop-prone swell might actually look interesting. For a paddle surfer, this is a tough window.

Rusty.

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