Seger Reef (Novotel) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

First off, we’re looking at a tricky 16-day window for Seger Reef (Novotel). The good news is there’s swell almost the whole time, but the wind is a persistent problem. The SE wind sits onshore or cross-onshore for the vast majority of days, and that’s going to mess up the wave face. The water temp is sitting at 79°, which is about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first few days are a bit of a write-off for a proper surf. Thursday the 10th through Saturday the 12th, the wind is a consistent cross or cross-onshore at 12 to 16 mph, making for choppy, bumpy conditions. The swell is there, around 5ft to 7ft from the SW, with a very long period of 15 to 16 seconds, which is a classic groundswell. But the wind is the killer. The combined wave energy is strong, ranging from 1660 to 2733, but the quality is poor.

Sunday the 13th gives us a little glimmer. The morning is still cross, but the afternoon holds the same. We’ve got a 8ft SW swell at 17 seconds, with a combined energy of 3241. That’s pumping, but the onshore wind is still there. It’s going to be a lumpy, challenging session, but there’s raw power.

The pattern of onshore wind and bumpy surf continues right through the middle of the window. There’s no real standout day where the wind cleans up. The swell period stays long, between 14 and 17 seconds, so the energy is there, but it’s not going to be a smooth, open face. The set waves will be long and powerful, but the chop will make it hard work.

The little highlight of the whole forecast comes on Sunday the 20th. We’ve got a solid 10ft SW swell, with a 16-second period. The combined energy is a massive 4597, which is a serious amount of water moving. The wind is still cross-onshore at 12 mph, so it won’t be glassy, but the sheer size and power will be something to see. This is big, expert-only territory. The swell is over 8ft, so it’s strictly for the experienced crew. The reef setup will handle the long period better than a beach, but the chop will still be a factor.

The final few days from the 21st to the 25th see the swell drop back to the 4ft to 8ft range, but the wind stays stubbornly onshore. Monday the 21st afternoon has a slight shift to cross-shore, which might make it a bit more rideable, but it’s still not clean.

For a spot that’s fairly consistent, this is a frustrating run. The crowds are listed as 'sometimes', so you might not have to fight for waves, but the conditions are a constant battle. Honestly, the setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer for the most part, given the consistent cross-onshore wind and the size of the waves. If you’re a beginner, keep away when the swell is over 5ft, and definitely give Sunday the 20th a wide berth.

The best bet in this window, if you have to paddle, is probably the afternoon of Sunday the 13th for the biggest, cleanest swell window, or the afternoon of Monday the 21st for a slightly smaller, less choppy option. But don’t expect a classic day.

Rusty.

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