Mawi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s chew the fat on Mawi for the next couple of weeks. It’s a tale of two halves, really. The swell’s got the beans, but that cross-off wind is a persistent little bugger. The water’s at 28°, which is pretty average for the time of year, so no drama there.

We’ve got a solid, long-period groundswell from the SSW running through most of the period, with the combined energy numbers sitting in the strong range – think values like 1566 and up into the 2000s. That’s proper grunt. But with the period pushing over 15 seconds, you’re going to get those long lulls between sets. It works a treat for a reef break like Mawi, giving the waves shape and power, but you need to be patient. The cross-off wind keeps the surface clean, but it’s not that perfect glassy offshore.

The first week, from Monday 6th July to Sunday 12th July, the swell is bouncing between 1.3m and 2.2m, but the scores are stuck at a 2. It’s all tagged as “marginal.” The wind is a fresh breeze, mostly 25-30 km/h from the ESE or SE, which puts a bit of a chop on the face. It’s ridable for the advanced guys, but it’s not the sweet spot. The 2.2m on Wednesday afternoon is a solid lump, but the wind is still bossing it around.

Then we hit a quiet patch. Sunday 12th July afternoon, the swell drops to 0.9m, and it stays weak through Monday 13th July. The energy numbers crash to around 500-1000. That’s a couple of days where you’re better off doing something else.

Things pick back up on Tuesday 14th July with the swell at 1.8m and the energy back up to 2047. But it’s still a “marginal” 2 out of 10 with a fresh cross-off wind.

The real standout window starts from Friday 17th July. The score bumps up to a 3 on Friday morning, and the wind drops to a moderate 20 km/h. That’s getting better. But Saturday 18th July is the one we’ve all been waiting for. Saturday morning at Mawi (United States), the wind drops to a light 10 km/h from the SE – it’s cross-off, but it’s so light it’s almost glassy. The swell is 1.6m from the SW with a 17-second period, and the combined energy is a solid 1655. By the afternoon it’s 1.9m with the same light wind. This is “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” The reef will be working, the shape will be there, and at that size, it’s a proper session. It’s over 1.5m, so beginners, give it a miss. You might see a few other cars out – Mawi can get a crowd “sometimes,” so be ready to share.

After Saturday, Sunday 19th and Monday 20th July keep the swell pumping at 2.2m to 2.4m, but the wind lifts back to a moderate 20 km/h, and the scores drop to a 3. It’s still solid, but not as sweet. Tuesday 21st July has the swell at 2.4m, but the wind is a fresh 30 km/h cross-off again – more of a workout than a pleasure cruise. Still, if you’re experienced and hungry, there’s power to be had.

So the long and the short of it: lock in Saturday 18th July. That’s the jewel. Light wind, good size, proper groundswell over the reef. The first week is a battle with the wind, and there’s a lull early in the second week, but that Saturday makes it all worthwhile. It’s a long-range pick, so don’t take it to the bank just yet, but it’s looking real promising.

Rusty.

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