Paco D 'arcos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get straight into what's on the table for Paco D'arcos.

Honestly, this is a tough one. Looking at the whole 16-day window, the story is pretty much the same from start to finish: we're dealing with a real flat spell. There's no decent swell to speak of, and the energy levels are barely a whisper. The combined swell energy fluctuates but stays in the low single digits (3 to 10), which is about as weak as it gets. For a sheltered point like Paco D'arcos, that means the ocean is just resting. You’ll be scratching for a knee-high ripple at best, and that's if you’re lucky.

The water temp is sitting at 67°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, about 2°F off the average. So, you might want that extra layer, even if you’re not expecting to paddle much.

Kicking off on Saturday the 12th, the morning is glassy with a NNE wind at 3 mph, but there's only a 0.3 ft swell. The afternoon cleans up with a cross-off wind, but still, nothing to ride. This flat pattern just keeps going. We see glassy conditions and light offshores in the mornings right through the weekend, but it's all for nothing – the ocean is smooth as a lake. For instance, Sunday the 13th morning has light cross-on wind, but again, zip for waves.

Moving into the work week, we get a bit of wind. Tuesday the 15th afternoon has a fresh offshore NNW wind at 19 mph with a 0.3 ft south swell – that's just a groomed flatness. Wednesday the 16th is the same story but with a strong offshore breeze at 25 mph. It's clean, sure, but you'd be paddling into nothing, and that strong wind would make it a battle just to stay in position.

The pattern doesn't change much into the second week. Saturday the 19th morning has a gentle offshore, Sunday the 20th is clean, but it's all the same: knee-high dribble. The most promising-looking window is around the 25th and 26th of September. We see a few pulses of long-period swell pop up on Friday the 25th (0.3 ft from the SW at 15 seconds) and Saturday the 26th (0.3 ft from the SW at 14 seconds). Those are proper long-period groundswells, and that 15-second period on the Friday morning could give a little bit of push. The wind is looking good, too, with a light offshore from the N on Saturday morning. A point break like Paco D'arcos is actually the perfect spot for a long-period swell like this, as it won't just close out. Even though the energy is still tiny (max 10), that combo of a favorable direction and clean offshore wind makes the 26th the best—and possibly only—decent bet in the whole outlook. Even then, keep expectations really low.

This long, blank run is pretty normal for this spot when the swell is this sheltered. It just isn't picking up any of the ocean's energy. The forecasts can change, but as it stands, we’re in for a very quiet fortnight.

Rusty, signing off.

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