Lakey Pipe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a solid run of surf on the horizon at Lakey Pipe, and it’s looking like a proper little campaign for those who can handle a bit of power. The forecast is chock-full of clean, cross-off conditions and a consistent pulse of SSW groundswell that’s going to keep the reef working day after day.

We’re kicking off Friday the 31st of July, but it’s a bit of a slow starter with 4ft of SSW swell running at a very long 17 seconds. The wave energy is moderate (1330), and while the morning’s a little marginal, by Friday afternoon it cleans right up with a gentle breeze, and the setup is excellent for experienced surfers. The water temp is sitting about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

Saturday the 1st and Sunday the 2nd of August are where this really starts to hum. Saturday morning’s got 5ft SSW swell, still that long 16-second period, and the combined energy is climbing (1491). By Sunday morning, we’re up to 6ft, and by Sunday afternoon we hit 7ft with a touch of offshore wind from the east. The energy jumps to strong levels (2102), and the waves are clean, hollowing out nicely on the reef. This is the pick of the first weekend – the standouts are Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. Monday the 3rd holds 6ft with consistent 15-second period, and the light-to-gentle cross-off breezes keep it glassy all day.

Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th keep the 6ft train rolling, though Wednesday morning looks a little marginal with the tide, but the afternoon session on the 5th fires back up to excellent with 6ft and a strong energy reading (1616). The swell direction is solidly SSW, which is just about perfect for this break’s optimum.

Now, if you’re an experienced surfer, keep your eye on Thursday the 6th of August. That afternoon we’ve got 8ft of SSW swell at 17 seconds, combined energy surging to 3276 – that’s strong, powerful stuff. The winds are cross-off from the south, and the surf is clean and excellent. This is a serious standout, but at 8ft it’s expert territory. Friday the 7th is a little less clean as the winds go cross-shore, and the surf quality dips into marginal territory, but the swell is still pumping at 8ft.

We roll into the second week, and the pattern holds strong. Saturday the 8th starts clean in the morning with 8ft, but the afternoon gets a moderate cross-chop, so take the early session. Sunday the 9th is similar – morning is clean, afternoon is bumpy. Then we hit Monday the 10th of August, and this is another absolute standout: 8ft SSW swell at 16 seconds, combined energy over 3000, and cross-off winds keeping the surface glassy. This is big, powerful reef surfing and it’s a dream for anyone with the skills.

Tuesday the 11th is interesting – the swell drops to 5ft in the morning, but the period stretches to an incredible 21 seconds, and the energy is massive (3751). That’s an ultra-long period groundswell, which will be super clean and powerful on the reef, but could be a bit straight for some. The afternoon jumps back to 8ft with an 18-second period and even more energy (4625). The wind is a moderate breeze, but it’s cross-off, so it stays clean. Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th keep the 7ft-plus range with clean conditions, and Thursday afternoon has a 23-second period – again, very long and will be a sight to see.

Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th of August is where the big dog shows up. Friday has 12ft of SSW swell at 19 seconds – the combined energy is off the charts at 8684. The forecast notes that the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. That is purely expert-level, maybe even pushing limits. Saturday the 15th still has 10ft, which is still massive. For most of us, that’s a watch-from-the-cliffs day.

Overall, the standout windows are Sunday afternoon the 2nd, Monday morning the 3rd, Thursday afternoon the 6th, and Monday the 10th. If you can make any of those, you’re in for a treat. This reef is consistent, it’s exposed, and it’s going to fire for two solid weeks. Also, because it’s a reef break, those long period swells – especially over 15 seconds – are going to produce super groomed, hollow lines with nice long lulls between sets, making the paddle out a bit easier. It does get crowded often here, so expect company.

There’s no gap at the start – the surf kicks in from day one and doesn’t really let up.

Rusty.

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