Lakey Pipe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at the forecast for Lakey Pipe. There’s surf on the cards right through the period, so no empty gap at the start.

The opening session, Sunday July 5th morning, is already a solid shout. Clean, clear skies, an easy-going 9 mph offshore breeze from the ESE, and a 5 ft SSW swell with a nice long 15-second period. Water temp’s sitting at 82°, which is about one degree warmer than usual for the time of year – feels like a warm bath, mate. The combined energy is pumping at 1308 (moderate to strong energy). This is top-shelf stuff for an intermediate surfer. The only catch: this break can get crowded, and with conditions this good, expect company out there. Because this is a reef break and a long-period groundswell, the waves will have real shape and push, and the gaps between sets give you a breather.

Monday July 6th and Tuesday July 7th drop off a touch. Still a clean 5 ft swell, but it’s more cross-off wind, so not quite as polished. The energy stays solid through the 1000s range, but it’s a step down from Sunday.

Now, Wednesday July 8th afternoon – this is where it gets interesting for the experienced crew. The swell jumps to 7 ft from the SW, period 15 seconds, and combined energy ramps up to 1910. That’s a powerful wave. It’s in the “too big for beginners” zone, so only take it on if you’ve got the skills. Conditions look clean. Thursday July 9th holds similar size, and by the afternoon the wind drops to a light 6 mph – that’s almost glassy, making for some really clean lines.

Friday July 10th afternoon is a standout. Swell sits at 6 ft from the SW, 16-second period, and the combined energy is 1892. Wind is a gentle 9 mph offshore from the SSE, so the face will be smooth. This is excellent quality for experienced surfers.

The run from July 11th to July 13th stays in the good-to-very-good range, with consistent 5 ft to 4 ft swells. Then Monday July 13th afternoon throws a curveball: the swell drops to just 3 ft, but the period stretches out to a very long 20 seconds. That’s a pure groundswell, and the energy reading jumps to 1126. On a reef like Lakey Pipe, that long period will wrap in nicely and produce clean, lined-up waves, even if it’s not big. Worth a paddle.

Tuesday July 14th morning brings the biggest swell of the forecast: 6 ft from the SSW, 17-second period, and a massive 2161 combined energy. That’s strong to very strong energy. This is expert-only territory – powerful, long-period groundswell hitting an exposed reef. Afternoon cleans up with lighter wind.

Wednesday July 15th and Thursday July 16th hold in the 6 ft to 6 ft range with strong energy. By Thursday afternoon, the wind swings to a true offshore from the ESE at 16 mph, which will groom the wave face nicely.

The second week, from July 17th onward, the swell eases back to the 5 ft to 4 ft range. Still plenty of clean days with gentle offshore breezes, and the energy dips but stays rideable. Sunday July 19th morning offers a late-period spike to 6 ft from the SSW, 16 seconds, with energy at 1507 – that’s a solid finisher for the outlook.

If you’re picking the one day to book off work, aim for Sunday July 5th morning – it’s the best blend of size, clean wind, and that warm water. For the charge, Wednesday July 8th afternoon or Tuesday July 14th morning are the big-muscle days.

Rusty.

Read more