Lakey Pipe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been looking over the charts for Lakey Pipe and the surrounding region. The coming weeks are looking pretty special for those who can handle a bit of size. This is a proper reef set-up, so it’s going to be a consistent run of solid, ground-driven swell from the SSW. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no need to adjust the wetsuit thickness.

The whole pattern kicks off on Thursday, 6th August, and it’s game on. We’ve got a long-period groundswell from the SSW, 7ft, with a period of 18 seconds. That’s proper energy, with a combined swell energy reading of 2894 (moderate to strong). The wind is a gentle cross-off from the SE, which is going to keep the surface clean. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers, no doubt about it. The period is long, so it’s perfect for a reef like this – it’ll hold that energy and give you those long, grinding lines. The swell is over 5ft, so it’s not a beginner’s wave.

Friday, 7th August, and Saturday, 8th August, are the standout days. The swell builds to 8ft from the SSW on Friday afternoon, with a period of 16 seconds and a combined energy of 3217 (strong). The wind stays cross-off, and the wave comment is excellent. Saturday morning holds that same 8ft, 16-second pulse, and the wind is still clean. Saturday afternoon the wind shifts to a cross-shore, so it’s a little less clean, but still worth a paddle. This is the best on offer – that Friday afternoon and Saturday morning combo is the one to aim for.

Sunday, 9th August, is still solid, with 7ft to 8ft of SSW swell, clean conditions, and excellent surf. Monday, 10th August, has a bit of a mix. The morning is a bit smaller at 5ft with a very long 19-second period, but the wind is a light cross-shore, so it’s a touch ripply. The afternoon, however, fires back up with 8ft, 18-second period, and a combined energy of 4946 (strong to very strong), with a clean cross-off wind. That’s a proper afternoon session.

Tuesday, 11th August, is where it gets big. The swell jumps to 10ft from the SSW, with a 17-second period, and the combined energy is 6486 (very strong). The wind is clean, but the wave comment is clear: the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. This is for experts only, and even then, it’s going to be a heavy, critical wave. If you’re not 100% confident, sit this one out.

The rest of the week from Wednesday, 12th August, through to Friday, 14th August, drops back into a more manageable range. We’re looking at 6ft to 7ft, with periods of 14 to 16 seconds, and clean cross-off winds. The combined energy is still strong, around 1993 to 2563. The 14th of August afternoon has a very long 23-second period on a 4ft swell, which is a classic groundswell – it’ll be long and lined up at the reef.

The second week, from the 15th August onwards, is a bit more of a mixed bag. The 15th and 16th have some solid 8ft and 7ft swells, but the wind picks up to a moderate breeze, and the wave comments are marginal. It’s still clean, but the quality drops. The 17th August is a bit of a write-off with a moderate cross-shore chop. But then from the 18th August, we get a nice little reset. The 19th and 20th August are looking promising again, with 7ft to 8ft of SSW and SW swell, periods of 16 to 18 seconds, and light offshore winds. The combined energy is back up to 4057 and 4528 (strong to very strong). That’s a solid late-season pulse, and it’s worth keeping an eye on.

The crowds at Lakey Pipe are noted as “often,” so you’ll likely have company, but with this much swell, it’s a lineup that’s spread out enough. Overall, it’s a solid run of groundswell, just keep an eye on that 11th August for the biggest, and most dangerous, day.

Rusty.

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