Lakey Pipe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a solid run coming at Lakey Pipe, a reef break that’s exposed to the swell, so it’s gonna be pulling in a heap of energy over the next couple of weeks. There’s surf right from the start, so no waiting around.

The overall pattern is a long, consistent pulse of SSW-to-SW groundswell. The water temp feels about average for the time of year, nothing out of the ordinary. The combined swell energy starts moderate-to-strong (1111) on Saturday the 4th, but conditions are more “marginal” with a cross-off breeze, so it’s a bit messy. The wave height is around 5 ft with a 15-second period, so there’s some decent push, but the wind keeps it from being clean.

Sunday the 5th morning is where we start to see the standout. The swell holds at 5 ft from the SSW, period still 15 seconds, but the wind shifts offshore from the ESE at 15 km/h. This is the game-changer. The combined energy jumps to 1482, and the wave comment says it’s excellent for experienced surfers. The break is consistent and often has crowds, so expect company, but with offshore winds and that long-period swell, you’ll get proper shaped lines off that reef. This is the best on offer in the first week.

Monday the 6th sees the swell drop a touch to 5 ft, but the period lengthens to 16 seconds later in the day. The wind stays cross-off, so not quite as pristine, but still clean. The energy is still moderate-to-strong (1310 in the morning).

Tuesday the 7th afternoon is another good one. The swell stays 5 ft from the SW, period 16 seconds, and the combined energy ticks up to 1009, which triggers the “excellent” tag. Still a cross-off breeze, but that long-period SW groundswell will wrap in nicely.

Then from Wednesday the 8th into Thursday the 9th, we get a bump. Wednesday afternoon sees 7 ft of SW swell at 15 seconds (combined energy 2115), and Thursday morning holds 7 ft from the SSW (1855). Both are tagged as excellent for experienced surfers. At 7 ft, this is getting into the “experts only” territory. The crowd factor is still “often,” so it’ll be busy with those who know what they’re doing.

The second week is more of a slow grind. There’s still swell, but the sizes settle back down. By Sunday the 12th, we’re down to 3–4 ft, though the period staying in the 13-second range keeps some shape. The energy drops off (392–525), and the wind is cross-off. Not a waste, but nothing to get overly excited about.

Wednesday the 15th sees a little pulse back up to 6 ft from the SSW (combined energy 1483), but again, cross-off winds, so you’re working with that side-breeze. The last real highlight comes on Sunday the 19th, with 5 ft of SW swell at 16 seconds and a light SSE breeze at 10 km/h. The combined energy is 1367 and it’s tagged excellent for experienced surfers.

Overall, the standout window is Sunday the 5th morning and the Wednesday-to-Thursday push on the 8th and 9th. If you’ve got the skill for the bigger stuff, you’ll be grinning. The rest is surfable, but those days are the ones to circle on the calendar.

Rusty.

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