Lakey Pipe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got a pretty solid stretch of surf coming up for us at Lakey Pipe (Big Island). We’re starting this Sunday morning, July 19th, with some clean but only just surfable waves. The energy's sitting at moderate (705), and the water’s a warm 81°, which is pretty normal for this time of year—no major temperature weirdness to worry about.

Right out of the gate, Sunday the 19th isn't really worth paddling out for. We’ve got 4ft swell from the SW with a 14-second period, but it’s only showing marginal surf. The wind is cross-off from the ESE at 12 mph, so it’s clean, but just not doing much. Same deal for Sunday afternoon. Monday the 20th morning sees a slight bump to 5ft, still SW, period stretching to 15 seconds, and the energy jumps to 1922, but it’s still rated as marginal. It’s not until Monday afternoon that things wake up: 7ft of SW swell at a very long 17-second period. That’s deep ocean groundswell right there, and the energy is strong (2479). This is the first standout—excellent conditions for experienced surfers. That long period will wrap around the reef nicely, but at beach breaks it can be a bit straight, so stick on the point or reef here. Winds are gentle, cross-off, so it’s looking clean.

Tuesday the 21st stays clean but drops back a notch—6ft in the morning, 6ft in the afternoon, both cross-off winds, but only marginal quality. Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd are smaller, around 4ft, with moderate energy (560-599) and still clean, but nothing to get excited about. Friday the 24th is the low point: 3ft in the morning, barely any energy (426), and just a “good” call for the afternoon with a tiny 3ft. We’ve got a bit of a lull here for a few days.

Saturday the 25th picks up again: 4ft SW swell with a 15-second period, clean clear skies, and gentle cross-off breeze. Energy is back to moderate (605). It’s a solid morning for a fun session. Sunday the 26th is smaller at 3ft, but still clean. Monday the 27th bottoms out at 2ft in the morning, but by Monday afternoon it’s back to 3ft, still clean, with light winds.

Now, from Tuesday July 28th the juice starts flowing again. Tuesday morning: 4ft SW swell, period of 17 seconds—very long period again—energy at 800, cross-off breeze. This is another very good option. Wednesday July 29th keeps it going: 5ft SSW swell, 15-second period, light breeze, energy at 922. But the real standout for the whole forecast is Thursday July 31st morning: 4ft SSW swell with a massive 18-second period, energy at 1315, and light ESE cross-off wind. By the afternoon we get an actual offshore breeze from the east at 9 mph—gentle offshore and clean—with 5ft SW swell and an 18-second period. This is exceptional groundswell, perfect for Lakey Pipe’s setup. Excellent conditions for experienced surfers, and the crowd factor is “often,” so expect some company, but this will be worth it.

August 1st Saturday holds strong: 6ft in the morning, 6ft in the afternoon, both SW, 17-second period, clean, with strong energy (1837–1982). Excellent conditions again. Sunday August 2nd morning: 5ft SW, 16-second period, and this time we get a moderate offshore from the ESE at 12 mph. That’s lovely, clean waves. The afternoon gets a bit windier, still cross-off, but quality drops to marginal.

Heads up for Monday August 3rd: the swell pumps up to 10ft SSW with an 18-second period, energy at a massive 6562. That is way too big for this break—for experts only, and honestly, it’s predicted to be too big even for that. By the afternoon it’s 12ft. Keep your board on the sand that day unless you’re a tow-in charger.

Overall, the best on the menu is Thursday July 31st, with that long-period groundswell and offshore wind, then Monday afternoon July 20th and the whole August 1st weekend are also standouts. There’s a short gap around July 24th–26th where it gets tiny, but it doesn’t last long.

Stay safe, keep an eye on that massive pulse at the end.

Rusty.

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