Kewalos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days at Kewalos (Oahu) are lookin’ pretty grim for a proper paddle session. The wind is just a constant enemy, blowin’ cross-off from the ENE and rarely lettin’ up. We’re talkin’ a solid 9 or 10 days at the start where the surf is just plain poor, no sugarcoatin’ it.

The water’s sittin’ at 79°F right now, which is only 0.5°F above normal for this time of year, so nothin’ weird there – just your typical warm Hawaiian summer bath.

The first real sniff of anything worthwhile doesn’t come until around Monday, July 13th. Even then, it’s only marginal. The swell pushes up to 6ft from the ENE with a short, snappy 8-second period, and the wind is still a fresh 19 mph from the ENE. It’s gonna be a messy, bumpy grind. The combined wave energy sits at a moderate 707 (morning), which means there’s some push, but the wind just ruins the face. The best you can hope for is a few workable ones if you’re an expert and really hungry.

We get a little blip on Tuesday the 14th when the swell drops to 2ft but comes from the SW with a 14-second period, givin’ us a combined energy of 329. That’s a weak, long-period groundswell, but with the wind still in the 19 mph range, it’s not gonna be clean. That long period might make the paddle out easier, but it’ll break straight and fat at this reef.

The pattern just keeps rollin’ – marginal or poor surf through the second week. The wind doesn’t let up, and the swell direction stays locked in from the ENE, which is not the optimum SSE direction for this spot. Short, choppy, and frustrating.

Now, here’s the only real standout in the whole 16-day window, but it’s a long way off. On Tuesday, July 21st, we get a pulse of east swell with a *very* long period of 19 seconds. The swell height is 4ft to 4ft, but the combined energy is massive – 1516 in the morning and 1728 in the afternoon. That’s strong to very strong energy. The wind? Still cross-off from the ENE at 19 mph. That’s the kicker. The swell has the juice, but the wind is just gonna trash it. It’s a promising but uncertain call this far out, but if that ENE wind ever backs off and goes lighter, this could be a rippin’ day. But as it stands, it’s marginal even for the experts. The swell direction is E, which is close to the optimum SSE, but not perfect.

The 22nd of July carries some of that long-period energy (16 seconds, 1206 combined energy), but again, that same 19 mph ENE wind is blowin’. It’s a tease.

Honestly, for the next two weeks, if you’re a paddler, you’re better off takin’ a break. With the combo of short-period swell and strong, onshore-ish wind, the setup at this reef looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It’s a blank run, and that’s just how it goes sometimes in the summer. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d say watch the wind and wait.

Rusty.

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