Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The forecast is a bit of a mixed bag. The early part is dealing with some serious size and the latter half has some promising windows, but you’ve got to pick your moments.

Right off the bat, Karekare (New Zealand) is seeing a huge pulse of swell on Sunday, July 26th. We’re talking 13ft from the WSW with a very long 15-second period. The wave energy is off the charts at 7511 (strong to very strong). This is not for the faint-hearted – way too big for beginners, and really only for experienced surfers who know the place. That said, the morning looks glassy with light north winds, which is a major positive for the wave face. You’d have to be committed, but for the right crew, it’s a serious session. The water temp is 57°, which is about average for this time of year, so a good 4/3 wetsuit will do the job. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, but early on a Sunday with that size, it might be quiet.

The swell backs down through Monday and Tuesday, but we’re still in the 7 to 10ft range with decent period. Monday gets a bit messy with a cross-shore chop in the morning, but Tuesday morning, July 28th, looks like a clear standout. You’ve got a 7ft WSW swell with a 12-second period, clean conditions with a cross-off SSE breeze at 9 mph. The wave energy is moderate at 1075. This is a much better size for the standard intermediate surfer, and the clean conditions should deliver some proper lines. Tuesday afternoon is still rideable at 5ft.

After that, the middle of next week (Wednesday the 29th to Thursday the 30th) looks fun but not huge, with clean 4ft to 7ft waves. Nothing mind-blowing, but consistent and user-friendly. Crowds are possible here.

The real problem comes in at the end of July and start of August. Friday the 31st through Sunday the 2nd sees a big swell return, with 18ft on the Saturday, and the wind turns nasty – onshore and gusty. The beach setup will be a washing machine. The swell energy is huge (12077) but it is unsurfable with that wind. This would be a kite surfer’s dream, not a paddle surfer’s.

Now, if you can wait, there’s a solid payoff. Tuesday morning, August 4th is the best of the whole forecast. Clean, clear sky, light cross-off SE wind at 6 mph, with a 8ft SW groundswell and a very long period of 18 seconds. The wave energy is strong at 4857. That period and direction are prime for a spot like Karekare, which is a beach-and-reef setup. That long-period swell should create some beautiful, powerful lines. It is a bit big for beginners, but for the experienced surfer, this is the moment to be in the water. The following morning, Wednesday the 5th, also looks excellent with 7ft and a light offshore from the east.

The second week (August 6th onwards) is more inconsistent. Thursday the 6th has another clean, long-period 5ft swell (19 seconds) which is a real treat for a session before the work day. But then we drift into smaller, wind-affected surf from the 7th to the 10th, with onshore winds and chop ruining the shape. The run from the 7th to the 10th is a big letdown after that promising start to the week.

To sum it up: the big call is Tuesday morning, August 4th. That’s the standout. Get your board and a good wetsuit, and paddle out early for clean, powerful groundswell. If you’re braver, Sunday morning the 26th is for the hardcore only.

Rusty.

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