Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Karekare over the next couple of weeks. This isn't going to be a straightforward run. We’ve got a massive start of the period, but the conditions are going to keep it out of reach for most of us for a while.

Straight off the bat, from the morning of the 13th of September, we’re looking at a big, powerful south-west swell hitting the beach. We're talkin' a solid 15 ft swell with a very long period of 16 seconds, packing a massive 10400 combined energy. That’s a serious groundswell, and it's coming straight out of the optimal south-west direction. The problem is the wind—a fresh, cross-onshore 19 mph from the south-west is ruining it. It's lumpy, choppy, and just not good for paddling out. The water temp is 58°, which is about normal for this time of year.

This pattern of big, unsurfable swell hangs around for days. The 14th is still too big at 12 ft to 10 ft, and the wind stays cross-onshore. Honestly, for the first week, if you want a paddle, you’re fighting a losing battle. The waves are just too thumping and messy.

We start to see a drop in size around the 16th, down to 5 ft, and the wind swings light onshore from the west. Still, it’s not really calling my name. The biggest issue is these south-west swells keep coming. Even into the 17th and 18th, we get some cleaner windows with a cross-off wind from the north-north-east on Thursday morning and Friday afternoon, but the swell never really sorts itself out for quality, clean waves. It’s just… marginal.

The real standout, if you can wait, is way out there on the 27th of September. That Sunday morning, the swell has dialed back to a manageable 7 ft, still from the west-south-west with a nice 14-second period. But the wind—beauty! A light breeze from the south-south-east, barely 6 mph, and it’s a cross-off. That’s clean, glassy conditions. The combined energy is 2313, which is a solid, surfable moderate energy. This is the best window in the whole run. It’s not for learners at 7 ft, but for an experienced surfer, that’s a great session. Karekare can handle that size, and with that wind, the lines should be proper. Just know this: it’s a long way off, so don’t book your flights yet, but keep an eye on it.

The 28th of September Monday morning has a similar vibe, smaller at 5 ft, but with a light cross-off and clean faces, it’s another good pick for a longboard or a fish.

So, to wrap it up: the next week is a write-off from the wind, unless you’re into a battle. The only real light is on the 27th and 28th. That’s the one to wait for.

Rusty.

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