Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’m looking at a pretty frustrating run ahead for Karekare. The good news is, the water temp is sitting at about 57° right now, which is spot on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The bad news is, for the next week and a half, it’s mostly a write-off unless you’re a hardcore big-wave charger with no plans.

We do get a tiny window this Saturday morning, 29 August. It’s only a 3ft WSW swell with a period of 13 seconds – that’s a nice groundswell – and the wind is glassy out of the ENE at just 3 mph. The combined swell energy is moderate (566). Honestly, it’s the cleanest session we’ll see for ages, but it’s small and won’t have much push. Saturday afternoon holds similar, with a 3ft swell and clean offshore E wind, but again, nothing to get the heart racing.

Then comes the real slog. From Sunday morning 30 August right through to Friday 11 September, it’s all about huge, messy, onshore slop. Sunday morning we’ve got 8ft SW swell, but it’s short-period (8 seconds) and smacked by a 19 mph cross-on SW wind. The combined swell energy jumps to strong (1521), and the comment says “poor surf conditions” – and it is. That trend continues for days: swell sizes from 8ft to a massive 16ft, with brutal cross-onshore winds between 16 and 25 mph. By Monday 31 August, the swell energy is tipping into very strong territory (6396 to 7919), but the wind is either cross-on or onshore, and the quality is absolutely trashed. Tuesday 1 September sees a 16ft SW swell with 22 mph cross-on wind – that’s expert-only territory anyway, but with those conditions, it’s just a washing machine. This stretch is not for paddle surfing; with that much wind and size, it’d be more interesting for kiteboarding than anything else.

We finally get a reprieve early on Monday 7 September. The morning session shows a 8ft WSW swell, 15-second period, and a light cross-off SSE breeze at just 6 mph. The combined energy is very strong (5044), but the comment calls it “exceptional surf conditions for expert surfers” – that’s a serious nod. The wind is clean, the period is long, but for a beach break like Karekare, a 15-second period groundswell can sometimes break a bit too straight. Still, for experienced crew, that Monday morning looks like the standout of the entire forecast. The afternoon glass off on Monday 7 has a 12ft swell with 17-second period and glassy N wind – that’s a huge, clean wall, but it’s also too big for most. The combined energy there is massive (6978).

After that, Tuesday 8 September and Saturday 12 September have solid 13ft swells with more favourable cross or gentle winds, but the swell size keeps them out of reach for anyone but the seasoned big-wave hunters. By Sunday 13 September, we’re back into messy cross-onshore slop.

So, overall: the first recommendation is this Saturday morning 29 August for a small, glassy clean-up, and the true standout is Monday 7 September morning – but only if you’re expert level. The gap between decent surf is basically a full week of terrible conditions. Not much to get excited about, but that Monday morning window is genuinely promising for the right surfer. Keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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