Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's get into it.

Right off the bat, we got a real problem. The first few days of this forecast are a no-go for most of us. The swell is way too big for Karekare. We're talking 13ft to 15ft of SW groundswell with a super long period of 16 seconds. That's pumping some serious energy into the bay. The cross-off wind is okay in theory, but when it's blowing 18 to 25 mph, it's just a mess. On Thursday, 9 July, it's a write-off for paddling. That's a lot of water moving around.

Friday the 10th isn't much better. The swell drops to 10ft, but that's still a heavy slab for an intermediate spot like Karekare, especially with a 17 to 18-second period making it dumpy. The cross-shore wind is only going to make it lumpy. This is a setup that looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Now, the good stuff. The standout window is the weekend. Saturday, 11 July, things start to turn. The swell drops to a more manageable 6ft from the WSW, with a 15-second period. The real hero is the wind: light offshore from the ESE at 6 mph. That's going to put a clean face on the waves. The energy is still healthy, so there's plenty of push. This is for experienced surfers only, but it's the best on offer.

Sunday, 12 July, is another solid one. Similar size, 7ft from the WSW, and that same light, clean cross-off breeze from the ENE. The energy is still up there. I'd be getting out there Saturday morning as the standout, but Sunday is a very close second.

Monday, 13 July, the swell starts to fade. The morning is still clean with a light cross-off and 5ft WSW swell, good for a more relaxed session. But the afternoon gets a bit sloppy as the wind swings onshore.

The water temp is sitting at 59°F, which is exactly average for this time of year. No surprises there.

The following week, from Tuesday the 14th through to the 24th, the forecast gets a bit messy for Karekare. There are some windows of clean, offshore winds from the East, particularly around the 19th and 20th, but the wind is howling at 25 to 31 mph. That's near gale force. It's clean offshore, but you won't be able to paddle out. The swell is smaller, around 4ft to 5ft, but the energy is low. It's a frustrating pattern.

The 16th of July has a promising morning with 8ft WSW swell and light cross-off winds, but it's a short-lived window before the afternoon gets blown out again.

The 23rd and 24th look like we're back to the big stuff, with 10ft to 12ft of swell and big energy. Too much for Karekare for a standard paddle session.

Overall, if you're looking for a window, the 11th and 12th of July are your best bet. Don't sleep on that Saturday morning.

Rusty.

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