Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a good hard look at what Karekare's got cooking for us over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you – this is a tale of two forecasts, and you're gonna have to pick your window carefully.

The first thing I'm looking at is that massive swell forecast for Monday the 7th. We've got a WSW groundswell pumping in at 10ft with a 16-second period from the southwest, packing serious energy (5519) – that's proper power. But here's the kicker: it's just too big for this break, and the wind is a messy cross-shore. The water's sitting at 58°, pretty much average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Monday arvo goes from bad to worse with stormy winds.

We get a little glimmer on Wednesday morning the 9th. The swell drops to a more manageable 5ft from the WSW, and here's the magic word: glassy conditions. That light SSE breeze at 3 mph will have the surface as smooth as a mirror. The period's still a solid 12 seconds so there's some punch, but with that combined energy at 930, it's not going to be a world-beater – just a nice, clean session for an intermediate. The crowds are *sometimes* an issue here, so get there early.

After that, it all turns to custard. From Thursday the 10th right through to at least the 15th of September, we are looking at a solid run of onshore and cross-onshore winds blowing out everything. The swell stays in the 6ft to 15ft range, but it's all junk. Kite-surfing weather, not paddle-surfing weather.

The second week is a write-off for quality surfing. The 16th, 17th, and 18th are dominated by strong to gale-force winds with massive, blown-out swell. You’d be mad to paddle out.

There is one very long-range standout worth noting, way out on Sunday the 20th of September. The afternoon shows a massive 18ft WSW groundswell with a 17-second period – that's some serious water moving around (15744 energy). The model says the wind and tide could be favorable, but again, that size is just too big for Karekare. It's got "experts only" written all over it, and even then, it'll be a battle. For the rest of us, it's a day for the camera, not the board.

To sum it up: your only real window for a clean wave is the morning of Wednesday, 9th of September. Lock it in. Everything else is either blown out or way too big for this spot.

Rusty.

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