Karekare Surf Break

Lat Long: 37.00° S 174.48° E

Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 pm 15 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Karekare sea temperature is
14.3° C
0.5° 

Karekare surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Karekare surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with cross-onshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 19 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 17s period, SW swell with 6,479 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period with WSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:

The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.5m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-onshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 3.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)12AM (Thu 16th Jul)11ft (3.5m) 15s
Best Surf12AM (Thu 16th Jul)11ft (3.5m) 15s
Most Powerful 6AM (Sun 19th Jul)11ft (3.5m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Karekare. Gotta be honest with you, the next couple of weeks are a mixed bag – some proper big groundswell on the cards, but the wind’s not always playing nice. We’ve got a long wait for the real sweet spot, but it’s there if you’re patient.

Starting off, we’ve got a monster swell rolling in from the WSW. Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th are seeing a solid 10ft groundswell with a 16-second period. That’s a lot of energy (combined energy of 5131 and 3803), but it’s just too big for this break. The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The wind is cross-on, so it’s looking a bit messy. For the experienced crew, Thursday morning might have a clean window with light offshore winds, but that swell size is a serious handful.

Into Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th, the swell stays big – 8ft to 10ft – but the wind swings more cross-on and picks up to 12-15 mph, making it choppy and frankly, not great. The energy is still massive (3417, 3873), but the conditions are poor. Honestly, this stretch is looking more like a kite surfer’s dream than a paddle surfer’s fun.

Sunday the 19th is a tease. The swell is still 10ft, but the wind goes light and cross-off in the morning, with a combined energy of 5855. It’s still too big for most, but if you’re a seasoned charger and can handle the size, that morning could have some serious, clean lines. The afternoon glass-off with 3 mph winds is a real standout for the experts.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st are the pick of the bunch for the first week. The swell drops to a more manageable 7ft to 6ft, still a solid WSW groundswell with a 13-14 second period. The wind turns offshore from the ENE, giving us clean, lined-up waves. The energy is moderate (2212, 1897, 1238), but the quality is excellent for experienced surfers. This is your window – consistent, clean, and the crowds are only sometimes, so you might have a few waves to yourself.

After that, things get marginal for a solid week. From Wednesday the 22nd right through to the weekend of the 26th, the swell drops off to 4ft to 5ft, with periods shortening. The wind is mostly cross-on, and the energy is weak to moderate (643 to 955). The conditions are rarely clean, and most days are just not worth the paddle out.

Then we hit another big pulse. Monday the 27th sees an 12ft swell rolling in from the WSW with a 16-second period, energy of 5590. Again, too big for the break, but the wind is light cross-shore, so if you’re a true expert, the morning could be a wild, challenging session. The rest of the week into the 30th is just more of the same – huge swell (13ft to 15ft) with strong onshore winds, making it a messy, dangerous affair. That’s strictly for the kamikaze crew or the kite surfers.

So, the standouts are Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st – that’s your best bet for clean, powerful waves without the chaos. Look for the ENE offshore winds and a dropping swell size. Everything else is either too big, too windy, or too small.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 12°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat night, min 10°C on Mon morning). Wind will be generally light.

Wed
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
Saturday
18
Sunday
19
Monday
20
Tuesday
21
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
Rating
(10 max)
!
!
!
3
1
1
0
!
0
0
0
!
!
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3
WSW
16
3.5
WSW
15
3
WSW
16
2.5
WSW
16
2.3
WSW
15
2.3
WSW
15
3
SW
15
3
SW
15
3
SW
15
3
SW
15
3.5
SW
18
3
SW
16
3
SW
16
2.5
WSW
15
2.3
WSW
14
2.2
WSW
14
2
WSW
14
1.9
SW
13
1.7
SW
13
1.5
SW
13
1.4
SW
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
5131
4779
3803
3326
2324
2305
3417
4353
3873
3477
6461
5472
4518
3162
2212
1879
1465
1200
996
734
540
Wind (km/h)
15
WNW
10
NW
10
WNW
15
W
15
SW
20
WSW
25
SW
20
SW
20
WSW
25
WSW
25
SW
20
SSW
5
SSW
10
E
10
E
15
ENE
10
E
10
ENE
5
S
5
ENE
5
NNW
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
off
off
off
off
cross-off
cross
glassy
cross-on
High Tide
10:59PM3.34m
11:23AM3.24m
11:47PM3.36m
12:10PM3.24m
00:32AM3.32m
12:55PM3.20m
1:15AM3.23m
1:38PM3.10m
1:57AM3.10m
2:21PM2.97m
2:40AM2.92m
3:07PM2.81m
3:25AM2.73m
Low Tide
4:53PM0.30m
5:21AM0.22m
5:40PM0.27m
6:06AM0.21m
6:25PM0.29m
6:50AM0.25m
7:08PM0.37m
7:34AM0.35m
7:51PM0.50m
8:17AM0.49m
8:36PM0.65m
9:03AM0.65m
9:24PM0.82m
9:52AM0.82m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
rain showers
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:31
7:31
7:31
7:30
7:30
7:28
7:28
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:22
5:23
5:23
5:24
5:25
5:27
5:27
5:28
 mm
2
Temp °C
14
14
14
15
14
14
13
13
13
13
14
13
12
12
11
11
11
12
12
12
12
Feels °C
12
13
12
13
12
11
8
9
9
8
8
9
10
10
9
8
9
11
10
11
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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