Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming up, but there are some real gems to aim for if you’re patient. The main player is Karekare, which is an exposed spot, so it catches most of the action. Right now, the water’s sitting at 58°F, which is basically bang on average for this time of year. Not a shocker.

The first proper surf worth paddling out for hits on Wednesday the 29th of July. It’s a clean morning with a 5ft swell from the WSW, and a light ENE cross-off breeze. The combined energy is moderate (481). It’s not massive, but it’s clean, and the light wind means the surface will be glassy. That afternoon the swell drops a touch to 4ft, but the energy bumps up a bit (560) and the wind is still light. It’s a solid, cruisy session.

The real standout of the whole run is Thursday morning, the 30th of July. That’s the one you want to block out time for. Swell jumps to 7ft from the WSW, with a 14-second period – that’s proper groundswell. The energy is strong (1446), and the wind is light and cross-off. This is excellent quality for experienced surfers, but at 7ft, it’s getting a bit chunky for learners. The water is still clean, and the longer period will mean nice, lined-up waves with good gaps between sets. Thursday afternoon goes a bit sketchy as the wind swings NW and gets stronger, so nab the morning.

From Friday onward, things get messy. We’ve got a run of big, windy, poor conditions. Friday the 31st has onshore winds up to 22 mph and a 10ft windswell – that’s a washing machine, not surf. Saturday the 1st of August is even bigger, with a 16ft swell and strong onshore winds. The energy numbers are through the roof (9051), but it’s blown out and dangerous. That’s for experts only, and even then, it’s not pretty. The setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Sunday the 2nd of August calms down a bit, but it’s still cross-shore winds with a 8ft swell and a moderate chop. It’s a marginal call.

The next decent window appears on Monday morning, the 3rd of August. A long-period 20-second groundswell rolls in at 4ft, but it’s from the WSW again. The wind is light cross-on, and the energy is high (2103). It’s a bit of a tease, though, because the afternoon turns poor again.

After a few more rough days, things start to look promising again around Wednesday the 12th of August. The morning is clean with a 4ft swell, but the afternoon is the real highlight: a 4ft swell from the WSW with a 21-second period, light SSE breeze, and clean conditions. The energy is strong (1642). This is excellent for experienced surfers. The long period will favour the point and reef setups, so it won’t break too straight.

Then Thursday morning the 13th of August is a beauty. Offshore ESE wind at just 6 mph, a 5ft groundswell from the WSW with a 17-second period, and strong energy (1720). That’s clean, glassy, and lined up. A proper session.

So, the bottom line: if you can only pick one session, Thursday the 30th of July morning is the pick of the first week. For the second week, target Wednesday the 12th of August afternoon and Thursday the 13th of August morning. The long-range stuff is promising but less certain, so keep an eye on the forecasts.

Rusty.

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