Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Karekare has on offer for the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but there are a couple of days that’ll get the blood pumping.

Right off the bat, the start of the period is a no-go. Saturday morning sees a tiny 2 ft SW swell with a 13-second period and a cross-off wind, but honestly, the energy is weak (155) and the surfline's calling it poor. The water temp is sitting at 58°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no shock there.

Saturday afternoon isn't much better at 3 ft, so the first few days are a write-off. You'll be waiting until Sunday the 5th, but even then it’s only marginal. The swell jumps to 6 ft on Sunday morning with a WNW direction and a 10-second period, but it’s cross-on and lumpy. Wind is light though, so there might be a sneaky one if you're desperate, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Now, Monday the 6th is where things get interesting. The swell jacks up to a massive 15 ft from the west with short 10-second periods. The energy is massive (4450 and 7463), but honestly, that's way too much for Karekare. The onshore wind on the morning is 30 km/h from the north, making it a messy, dangerous beast. This is strictly for big-wave specialists or kite surfers. It’s just too gnarly for paddle boards.

Tuesday the 7th is still huge, with 12 ft to 10 ft WSW swell and a long 16-second period. The wind is offshore though, from the east and ESE at 25-30 km/h, so it’s clean. But 10 ft+ with that much energy (over 4000) is only for experts. The sets will be long and powerful, and it will be breaking straight at the beach, so you’d want to be on your game. The crowds are listed as "sometimes" so it might be just a handful of locals.

Wednesday the 8th drops down to 7 ft, but it's cross-on and wonky, so not much to write home about.

Now here’s the standout. Thursday the 9th and the weekend of the 11th to the 12th. From Thursday the 9th through the weekend, you’ve got clean, offshore wind (east or ESE) with a 10 km/h breeze. The swell sits between 8 ft and 6 ft, but the direction is SW and WSW with periods from 10 to 17 seconds. The energy is strong but manageable (around 2000-3000). These are the pick of the fortnight. The conditions are described as "excellent for experienced surfers" which is exactly what you want. Long period swells (15-17 seconds) mean better shaped waves and more energy, but at a beach break like Karekare, they can be a bit straight. Still, with offshore wind, these are the days to clear your schedule. The morning sessions will be the cleanest.

Then we hit a bit of a lull mid-week. Monday the 13th is still good, with 5 ft swell and clean offshore winds, but it’s dropping. Tuesday the 14th is smaller again at 3 ft, but still clean with a light breeze.

The second week shows some promise. Thursday the 16th sees a jump back to 7 ft WSW swell with a long 17-second period and fresh offshore winds from the ENE at 35 km/h. That’s going to be clean but powerful. It’s a bit less certain this far out, but if it holds, that Thursday morning will be another top session for experienced surfers.

The best of the best, though, are Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th. Saturday morning you’ve got 4 ft SW swell (13 seconds) with a light ENE breeze, cross-off. Saturday afternoon turns offshore with a 5 ft SW 16-second groundswell. Sunday the 19th keeps that offshore flow from the ESE and a solid 4 ft SW 15-second swell. The energy is moderate (600-1000), but the wind is clean and the conditions are "excellent for experienced surfers" and "very good." For a beach break, that’s about as good as it gets.

Summary: The first weekend is a write-off. The standout windows are Thursday the 9th through Sunday the 12th for clean, overhead SW swell. The next best is Thursday the 16th if the wind stays on, and then Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th for fun, clean surf. Forget the 15 ft days unless you're towing or on a kite.

Rusty.

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