Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

First up, we’ve got a solid stretch of winter swell heading our way, but it’s not going to be straightforward. The water temperature is sitting around 58°F, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real chance to get wet kicks off Saturday the 18th of July, but it’s a big one. Karekare is showing a solid 10ft SW swell with a long 15 second period, and the combined energy is massive at 3873 (moderate-strong). The problem is, the wind is a cross-on 12 mph, making it choppy. And to be honest, this swell is too big for this break – it’s an expert-only affair at best. Saturday afternoon is even worse with stronger wind, so I’d give it a miss.

Sunday the 19th is much the same: 10ft SW swell, period even longer at 17 seconds, and energy up to 5522. The wind is still cross-on at 16 mph, and it’s just too messy and too big. Not the day for a paddle.

Now, Monday the 20th of July is where things start to look interesting. The swell drops to a more manageable 8ft from the WSW, period 14 seconds, and energy is 2346. The wind goes light and cross-off from the ENE at 6 mph, cleaning it right up. That’s excellent surf for experienced surfers. Monday afternoon is similar, with 7ft and clean conditions. If you’re an experienced surfer, this is the standout of the first week.

Tuesday the 21st of July is a gem. Morning has a 6ft WSW swell, period 14 seconds, with light offshore wind from the east. It’s clean, and the energy is 990 (moderate). By the afternoon, the wind goes glassy from the SSW, and the swell is 5ft with a 13 second period. This is very good quality, clean surf. This is the best on offer for the intermediate crowd.

Wednesday the 22nd of July sees a drop-off. The swell is 4ft, period 12 seconds, but the wind is cross-on and light, so it’s only marginal. Afternoon is poor with stronger cross-on wind.

Thursday the 23rd of July brings a mini revival. Morning is glassy with a 5ft SW swell, 13 second period, and energy 679. That’s clean and very good. Afternoon is also glassy, with a 6ft WSW swell, period 13 seconds, energy 970. Very good, clean conditions again.

Friday the 24th of July is messy. Morning is cross-shore, and the swell is 5ft, but the wind picks up, and it’s only marginal. Afternoon goes downhill with strong cross-on wind and rain. Not worth it.

Saturday the 25th of July is a write-off. The swell jumps to 12ft, and the wind is a strong 25 mph cross-on in the morning. That’s dangerous and messy. The afternoon is onshore and lumpy. Hard pass.

Sunday the 26th of July is a big one. The morning has a 8ft WSW swell, period 15 seconds, with cross-off wind from the SSE at 9 mph. It’s clean, and the energy is 5025 (strong). This is exceptional surf for experts. The afternoon gets even bigger, 13ft, with a cross-shore wind, but it’s too big for this break. Morning is the expert window.

Now, Monday the 27th of July through to Wednesday the 29th of July, the swell is huge again – 15ft and 12ft – with clean winds but way too big for most. Not recommended unless you’re a pro, and even then, it’s pushing it.

Wednesday the 29th of July afternoon sees a drop to 6ft from the WNW, but the period is a short 7 seconds, so it’s weak and lumpy. Not great.

Thursday the 30th of July is back to big, messy swell – 10ft with cross-on wind. Not a good day.

Friday the 31st of July has a 6ft swell, but it’s cross-on and choppy. Only marginal.

Saturday the 1st of August is a bit of a mixed bag. The swell is 7ft from the WSW, period 12 seconds, with cross-shore wind. It’s marginal, but the energy is 1289 (moderate). Could be okay for a session if you’re keen, but not a standout.

Sunday the 2nd of August ends the run with a fresh 10ft SW swell, but the wind is a strong 22 mph cross-on, making it completely blown out. Not worth it.

So, if you’re an experienced surfer, Monday the 20th and Sunday the 26th of July are your best bets. For the intermediate crowd, Tuesday the 21st of July is the standout – glassy, clean, and a nice size. The rest of the window is either too big, too windy, or too small.

Rusty.

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