Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s happening at Karekare out West. We’ve got a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks, with some proper solid swell and clean windows, but also some real heavy water.

First up, the water temp is sitting at about 58°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, no major anomaly there – just standard winter chill.

The immediate outlook is a bit average. Sunday July 5th is a write-off, small choppy stuff with onshore winds. Not worth paddling out for. Monday July 6th brings a big jump in size, with WNW swell pushing 13ft but the wind is ugly in the morning. In the arvo, the wind swings NE, making it cross-off and clean, but that 13ft swell is packing serious energy (8263) – that’s beyond beginner territory and heavy for most. Tuesday July 7th and Thursday July 9th also see that 10ft to 12ft range with favourable offshore winds from the East, making for clean faces, but again, this is expert-level size. The energy readings are massive (5210, 3896, 5729), so expect powerful, long-period groundswell (16 seconds) that will be lumpy and wonky at Karekare’s beach break, wanting to race through. Conditions are clean, but it’s only for the brave.

The standout looks to be Saturday July 11th. Early morning, swell drops to a more manageable 6ft from the SW with a 15-second period, light offshore from the SE, and clean conditions. The energy is moderate (2126), but the quality for experienced surfers is rated well. This is the best window in the first week for someone who knows what they’re doing.

Sunday July 12th morning also has a sweet window, 7ft SW swell with a clean offshore from the East, offering another solid session for the experienced crew. The following days, from July 13th onwards, we see the swell backing off into the 4ft to 6ft range, still with clean morning conditions. Wednesday July 15th arvo is a real treat – glassy conditions with a tiny 2ft but a super long 18-second period swell. That’s pure, slow-building lines, perfect for a longboard or a funshape. The crowd factor at Karekare is "sometimes", so you might have company, but it’s not a circus.

We then have a long stretch of marginal, weak days from July 16th through the 19th. Swells are below 4ft, energy is low (between 455 and 1007). The wind is mostly clean, but there’s just no push. You’ll be bobbing around. Definitely a gap there with no real recommendations.

Then, out of the blue, Monday July 20th arvo throws a curveball – a 13ft pulse from the WNW with strong energy (6164). The wind is light, but that’s just way too much for the beach break at Karekare. This one is a pass, unless you have a death wish and a big gun.

So to wrap it up: if you’re an experienced surfer, circle Saturday July 11th and Sunday July 12th mornings for the best waves. For the mellow crew, that glassy Wednesday July 15th arvo is your sneaky winner. The rest of the window is either too big, too small, or too average.

Rusty.

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