Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We've got a bit of a mixed bag on the cards for Karekare over the next couple of weeks. The ocean is going to be pumping, no doubt about that, but the conditions around it are going to make things tricky for a while. The water’s sitting at a pretty standard 57° for this time of year, nothing to write home about that.

Looking at the whole run, we start off this Friday, the 21st of August, with a solid 6ft to 5ft SW groundswell pushing in. It's got some proper energy behind it (moderate energy around 961 to 1164), but it's hampered by a persistent cross-onshore wind. It’s going to be choppy and bumpy, more of a paddle for fitness than for fun.

Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd look even rougher. The swell jumps up over 8ft on Saturday and then hits a big 12ft on Sunday with some proper westerly wind in the mix. That’s big, ugly, and onshore – definitely an expert-only zone if you’ve got the nerve, but for the rest of us, it's a beach day.

The start of the next week, Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th, sees the swell just get downright massive, pushing 15ft on Monday. The combined energy is huge (8964 and 9324), but the forecast is clear: it's simply too big for Karekare. The cross-onshore wind is going to make it a washing machine. The conditions improve slightly on Tuesday with the wind turning more offshore, but at 10ft to 12ft, it’s still well into the too-big-for-this-break territory. This is more of a big-wave mission for absolute experts, if they even paddle out.

We finally get a window of hope on Thursday the 27th of August. The swell drops back to a manageable 6ft to 7ft from the WSW, the energy is still moderate (around 1347 to 1449), but the real story is the wind. Thursday afternoon turns glassy, absolutely dead calm. That’s the sort of clean, silky surface that turns a standard day into a special one. The swell period is a nice 13 seconds, so you'll get some proper long lines wrapping in. This is the standout of the first week. It’s a shame the crowds at Karekare are listed as "sometimes" because on a day like this, they’ll be there. Be ready for a crew.

After that little Thursday peak, things get messy again through Friday the 28th and Saturday the 29th with onshore winds spoiling the party, with the swell hovering around 6ft to 7ft.

Now, looking ahead to the second week, things get interesting again. Sunday the 30th of August is still a bit marginal with a very long-period 18-second swell but some chop. Keep an eye on Monday the 31st of August though. That morning we see light offshore winds from the NNE and a clean 7ft WSW swell. Another glass-off on Monday afternoon with a 6ft swell and a clean face. That’s a quality day on the cards, similar to the Thursday before.

The 1st of September brings in another pulse of solid 12ft swell from the SW. The winds are offshore and it’s clean, but again, the forecast flags it as too big for the break. A wave for the brave and the well-equipped.

Then things get a bit wild again from the 2nd of September with strong onshore winds and huge, messy swell up to 20ft. That's just a closed-out, windy mess and not worth thinking about until the 4th or 5th of September, when the swell finally starts to back off to a more manageable 6ft.

So, to sum it up for you: the best bets in this whole 16-day run are clearly Thursday the 27th of August with the glassy afternoon session on a solid 6ft swell, and Monday the 31st of August for a clean, offshore morning. Get out there for those windows. The rest is either too big, too windy, or just not quite right.

Rusty, signing off.

Read more