Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down the next couple of weeks for the West Coast. It’s a bit of a wild ride, so let’s get into it.

First off, the water is sitting right around 56.5°F, which is about normal for this time of year. So, no surprises there, just your standard chilly winter setup.

We're starting off with a bit of a dud. Sunday the 23rd is a complete write-off. There’s some swell around 7.5ft, but a fresh cross-onshore breeze is going to have it lumpy and messy. Not worth your time. That afternoon, it jumps up to nearly 10ft with rain and a strong onshore wind. That’s a hard pass.

Monday the 24th is where it gets interesting, but tricky. We’ve got a big, powerful groundswell pushing in from the WSW. The morning shows a solid 13ft with a 14-second period and a moderate cross-onshore breeze. The combined energy is strong. The forecast says the wind and tide are favorable, but it’s just too big for Karekare. This is expert-only territory. If you have to paddle out, you’re in for a battle. The swell is predicted to be too big for this break. Tuesday the 25th stays similar, with around 10ft of WSW swell and a 15-second period. The morning looks OK on paper, but again, it’s still a lot of water moving. The afternoon turns to poor conditions with a cross-onshore breeze chopping it up.

By Wednesday the 26th, it drops a bit to around 8ft, but it's still a lot of energy with a 14-second period. The conditions are marginal at best. Light winds, but still that cross-onshore component. It’s rideable for the experienced crew but nothing to write home about. Thursday the 27th is much the same, around 7ft, with light winds. Still, just marginal.

Friday the 28th, things get weird. The morning drops right off to a weak 3ft with a cross-shore breeze and a 14-second period. The energy is weak. It’s not doing much. The afternoon sees the swell jump back to 7ft, but a fresh cross-onshore breeze makes it lumpy again. Not good.

Saturday the 29th has a small, clean-ish 6ft swell with light winds. It’s still on the marginal side, but the 12-second period from the WSW offers a bit of shape. It’s a scrappy, small day that might give you a few fun ones if you’re not picky.

Sunday the 30th sees the swell drop right back to around 3.5ft, though the period stretches out to a very long 18 seconds. This is a long-period groundswell, which at a beach break like Karekare can be tough, often breaking too straight. The morning has some rain showers and a gentle breeze, but the afternoon brings in a moderate onshore wind. Not great.

Now, here’s where the plot thickens. On Monday the 31st, we’ve got a serious pulse of SW groundswell. The morning shows a monstrous 14.8ft with a 13-second period and a fresh cross-onshore wind. The energy is strong. It’s just going to be a washing machine out there. Tuesday the 1st of September is even bigger, with the combined energy hitting a huge number and a 16-second period. But again, it’s around 13ft and crossed-up. This is a massive, unsurfable mess for Karekare. Wednesday the 2nd is still big and blown out.

Let’s be real, from the 24th through the 4th, the swell is there, but it’s either too big, too messy, or too onshore for Karekare to be any good. It’s just a write-off for the paddle crew.

The only faint glimmer in this whole stretch is Thursday the 3rd of September. We’ve got around 11.5ft in the morning and 14.8ft in the afternoon from the WSW with a 15-second period. The afternoon has light cross-onshore winds and the report says the wind and tide are favorable, but once again, it’s flagged as too big for this break. If you’re a madman on a big-wave board, maybe, but for everyone else it’s a no-go.

The rest of the run into the second week – the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th – is a story of smaller swells but persistent cross-onshore winds. It’s all poor to marginal. There’s nothing that jumps out as clean or rideable for the average surfer.

So, what’s the call? Honestly, there’s no real standout day in this 16-day window for Karekare. The surf is either too big, too small, or just plain messy. It’s a blank run for the most part, which is a bit rough for the area. The best you can hope for is to pick off a few waves on the small, clean

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