Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me tell you how things are shaping up for us here at Karekare.

We've got a pretty wild 16-day window ahead. Right now, it's a bit of a mess. Thursday afternoon is a write-off with a cross-onshore wind and choppy conditions on that 6ft WSW swell. The combined energy is already strong at 1287, but the wind is just ruining it. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about average for this time of year.

Friday is a total washout. That nor'wester is screaming onshore at 19 mph with rain, and the models are showing very poor surf conditions all day, so don't even bother paddling out.

But then, get this – Saturday the 1st of August is a true standout. We're looking at a massive 13ft swell from the WSW with a 13-second period, and the combined energy is pumping at a very strong 4937. The magic is the wind: a light offshore easterly in the morning at 6 mph, turning cross-offshore in the afternoon. That means clean, glassy faces. However, this is a serious warning: 13ft is well over the 8ft mark, so this is strictly for experts only. Beginners, stay well clear. This is the best on offer in the whole run, but only if you've got the skills.

Sunday drops off hard. The swell backs down to 7ft, but we get a cross-shore wind that introduces some chop. The energy drops to a moderate 1380. It’s marginal.

Next week starts rough. Monday and Tuesday have strong onshore winds again with that WSW swell, making for poor, choppy conditions. The 10ft swell on Tuesday morning is too big and messy.

Now, Wednesday the 5th of August is another highlight, but for a different reason. The swell drops to a clean 7ft from the SW with a 14-second period (moderate energy at 1850). The key here is a light offshore easterly wind at 6 mph. This will produce clean, excellent waves, but it's still solid at 7ft, so it’s better for the experienced surfers.

Thursday the 6th brings a different flavour with a 10ft WNW swell, but the period is a short 9 seconds. That’s a windswell, not groundswell, and it's too big and a bit sloppy for the setup here. The offshore wind is there, but the quality isn't. A beach break with that much short-period swell and wind might be more interesting for the kite surfers.

The week after that is where it gets interesting for the rest of us. From Saturday the 8th of August onward, we see a run of smaller, clean swells. The big 13ft days are gone. For example, Saturday morning has a small 4ft WSW swell with a light offshore breeze – clean, but small. The following days, from the 9th to the 14th, are consistent with 3ft to 6ft swells, mostly from the WSW, and the wind stays offshore or cross-offshore from the east. The water temperature will still be about average for this time of year.

The best of this smaller run is probably the 14th of August: a clean 6ft swell from the west with a 13-second period, light offshore easterly wind, and a combined energy of 1334. It's a good mix of size and condition for a proper session without the danger of the 13ft stuff.

Overall, don't waste your time until Saturday the 1st of August. That's the big, dangerous, epic day for experts. After that, wait for the smaller, cleaner surf from the second week onwards, with the 14th of August being a good target for a solid session.

Rusty.

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