Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. We’re looking at Karekare, and this one is a beast, but it’s not for the faint-hearted. The whole 16-day run is dominated by some serious size, with the combined swell energy hitting values like 5017 and even 10141 – that’s strong to very strong wave energy, no doubt about it.

The action kicks off Monday, July 6th. A massive 13.1ft NW swell rolls in with a 9-second period. The wind is a cross-off from the NNE at 19 mph, which should keep things clean, but honestly, this is way too big. It's rated as too big for this break, so unless you're an expert charger on a big-wave gun, you're better off watching from the cliff. The combined energy is a hefty 5017. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

Tuesday the 7th is the standout, the best on offer for the whole period. Wind turns offshore from the East, a solid 16 mph in the morning and 19 mph in the afternoon. That offshore wind is a magic ingredient, creating clean, peeling faces on the 9.8ft WSW groundswell with a 16-second period. The combined energy is still a massive 4969. This is proper, heavy, expert-only territory with a long, sweet period. Expect the waves to be powerful and lined up, though with that size and a long period, it might break a bit straight on the beach, so look for the deeper peaks.

Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th are blown out with strong cross and cross-on winds. The swell is still huge, up to 14.8ft, but the conditions are poor. Forget it.

Friday the 10th and Saturday the 11th see the swell dip but the conditions are marginal, with lumpy cross-chop. The combined energy drops to around 2118, but the winds are messy.

Now, we get a solid run starting Sunday the 12th of July. The swell is a more manageable 6.6ft from the WSW with a long 16-second period. The wind is light cross-off from the ESE, and the conditions are clean. The combined energy is 2083. This is the sweet spot for experienced surfers. The size is still solid, but the conditions are excellent.

Monday the 13th is the best of the second week. The swell drops to a nice 5.2ft from the SW, with a clean offshore wind from the ENE. The afternoon turns glassy, with a 4.6ft WSW swell and almost no wind. This is the most accessible it gets—still has a good amount of energy (combined 1031 and 767) but it’s clean, manageable, and a great call for intermediate surfers. Crowds at Karekare are sometimes an issue, but on a Monday, you might be lucky.

The forecast then gets flatter and more inconsistent through the middle of July, with smaller swells (2.6ft to 5.9ft) and persistent NE winds. The 17th of July offers a glimmer of hope with a clean, 3.9ft SW groundswell and offshore ESE winds, but the energy is lower at 1195. The run from the 18th of July onward turns poor and onshore again. It’s a classic West Coast story: some absolute gold, but you have to take the bad with the good. Signing off.

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