Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty. Let’s break down what’s coming for Karekare. This is a west coast spot that’s open to the swell, and the next couple of weeks are a wild ride. There’s a huge pulse of energy early on, but it’s going to be a blown-out mess for a few days before we get some clean windows. The real standout is a couple of mornings in the second week where the stars align for some serious groundswell with glassy conditions. The water temp is 57.2°, which is right on average for this time of year, so nothing unusual.

We kick off on Thursday the 23rd of July. The afternoon has some clouds, a light 3 mph offshore wind from the west, and a 6.2ft SW swell rolling in with a 13-second period. The combined energy is 1308 (moderate to strong). The wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” so it’s a decent start but not the highlight.

Then it goes to hell. Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th are a total write-off. Friday morning has a 4.3ft WSW swell with a 12-second period, but a 12 mph cross-shore from the north makes it choppy, and by the afternoon the wind picks up to 19 mph cross-on with light rain. Saturday is a monster but a total mess: 18ft to 21ft WSW swells, with 28 mph cross-on winds and rain. The combined energy hits 5951 and then a massive 13016 (very strong to extreme). That’s not for paddling, mate. That’s kite-surfing territory or a full-on storm watch. Stay out of the water.

Sunday the 26th of July is a different story. The swell is still huge at 13ft from the WSW, but the wind swings to an offshore ENE at 12 mph in the morning, and the wave comment says “wind and tide favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break.” The afternoon has a 19 mph cross-off from the ESE. For experienced surfers only—this is big, powerful groundswell (15 seconds in the morning, 14 in the afternoon), and the combined energy is still massive at 6621 and 5761. Unless you’re a gun, give it a miss. It’s too big for beginners and most intermediates.

Monday the 27th of July, the swell drops to 10ft on the morning from the WSW with a 13-second period, and the wind is a light cross-shore from the SSW at 6 mph. The wave comment says “wind and tide favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break.” So again, it’s big and powerful (2817 combined energy). The afternoon is messy with a cross-on wind. This is still a big swell period.

Things settle down from Tuesday the 28th through to Wednesday the 29th. Tuesday morning has a 6.6ft WSW swell, 12-second period, light cross-shore winds, combined energy 1132 (moderate). The wave comment is “marginal,” so it’s okay but not stellar. Wednesday the 29th of July, the morning is the pick of this stretch: 4.9ft WSW swell, 11-second period, a light 3 mph cross-off from the NE, and the wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” The combined energy is only 553 (moderate), but the clean conditions make it a fun, manageable size. The afternoon turns a bit messy with a cross-on wind.

Now into the second week, and we’ve got a proper standout. Thursday the 30th of July morning has a 7.5ft SW swell with a very long 17-second period, combined energy of 3911 (very strong). The wind is a moderate cross-shore from the NNW at 12 mph, which isn’t perfect, but that long-period groundswell is going to be powerful. The afternoon is a write-off with strong cross-on winds. Friday the 31st and Saturday the 1st of August are all blown out with cross-on winds and messy conditions, swells hanging around 7.2ft to 9.8ft. Not worth it.

The real gem is Tuesday the 4th of August. The morning is glassy—a 3 mph wind from the west, dead calm, with a 6.2ft WSW swell, 16-second period, combined energy 1857 (strong). The wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s the best on offer: glassy, clean, long-period groundswell at a solid size. The afternoon stays clean with a 9 mph cross-off from the SSE and 5.9ft swell. This is your day.

Wednesday the 5th of August has a 8.2ft WSW swell, 18-second period,

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