Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming for Karekare.

We’re in for a bit of a wild ride over the next couple of weeks. There’s a lot of swell, but a lot of it is going to be too messy or just plain too big for a comfortable paddle. The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real window of opportunity looks like it’ll be Tuesday morning, July 28th. We’ve got a 5 ft swell rolling in from the WSW with a 12-second period. The combined energy is moderate at 871. The wind is a light SSE breeze, blowing cross-offshore, which will keep things clean. It’s a good session for intermediates, but the crowds are possible here, so don’t expect to have it all to yourself.

Wednesday the 29th is looking similar. Morning and afternoon both have clean conditions with a light cross-offshore breeze. The swell holds around 4 ft to 5 ft from the WSW, period 11 seconds, and the energy is light to moderate (481-595). It’s a solid, surfable day for the intermediate crew.

Thursday the 30th of July, though... that’s the standout. The morning session is the pick of the whole forecast. We’re looking at a 7 ft WSW groundswell with a long 14-second period, pumping in with strong energy (1436). The wind is a light NNE cross-offshore, making for clean, lined-up waves. This is proper, high-quality surf for experienced surfers. The afternoon might get a bit choppy as the wind swings NW and picks up, so get out early.

After that, things get wild. From Friday the 31st through the weekend, the swell piles in, hitting 12 ft to 18 ft with strong onshore winds. The combined energy is massive (1951 up to 9806), but the wind is trashing it. This is not a paddle-in situation; it’s more of a kite-surfing show if you’ve got the gear.

Into the first week of August, the swell stays big, over 8 ft most days, and the wind is unreliable. Monday the 3rd has a weird entry: a 4 ft swell with a 21-second period from the SW (energy 1954). That’s a very long period groundswell, which means it’ll be super straight and fat at a beach break like Karekare. Not great for the paddle surfer. The size is fine, but the shape won’t be there.

The next real chance at something decent doesn’t come until Thursday the 6th of August. The morning shows an 12 ft WSW swell with a short 9-second period, but the wind is a clean cross-offshore from the SE (energy 2228). The problem is the size – 12 ft is expert-only territory. The same goes for Friday the 7th, with 13 ft swell and a clean cross-offshore wind. It’s beautiful to look at, but if you’re not a seasoned charger, stay on the sand.

The rest of the second week is a mixed bag of big, messy swells and strong winds. There’s a small window on the morning of Monday the 11th of August, with a 2 ft WSW groundswell (15-second period, energy 392) and a light offshore ESE breeze. It’s tiny, but clean. For the rest, it’s a case of waiting for the forecast to change.

Overall, the best bet is that Thursday morning, the 30th of July. Get out there and make it count.

- Rusty

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