
Surf Forecasts:
Karekare surf forecast from 12 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 15 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with cross-onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 15 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 5,601 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 12 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:
The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 12) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Monday (Jul 13) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Sun 12th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 12PM (Wed 15th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Wed 15th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.
Alright, let’s talk Karekare. This is a classic West Coast setup, exposed to the southwest, and it’s about to get a proper hammering. The water’s sitting at 59°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.
The real story here is the size. We’ve got a big, long-period groundswell rolling in from the southwest, and it’s going to be pumping for a solid run. The combined energy is massive – over 2000 (2291) early on Sunday, and it just keeps climbing. This is proper, heavy energy, not some weak chop. Waves are 7ft on Sunday morning with a 16-second period, and the wind is a light easterly cross-off. That’s clean, lined-up, powerful stuff. Sunday afternoon goes glassy with a 7ft swell from the WSW. That’s your standout window for sure – the best of the whole outlook. It’s clean, it’s powerful, and it’s got that long period in the water. This is for experienced surfers only; beginners will be out of their depth.
The swell holds through Monday, but the wind shifts. Monday morning is still clean with a 5ft swell, but by the afternoon it’s cross-on and messy. Tuesday brings a 7ft swell but it’s short period (8 seconds) and choppy – not worth the paddle. Wednesday gets wild again, with a 10ft swell and cross-on wind, and that’s when it becomes too big for this break. That size continues right through Thursday, Friday, and Saturday – 10ft is the dominant theme, and the wind is onshore or cross-on most of the time. It’s a washing machine, and honestly, more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.
There’s a bit of a lull from the 20th of July into the 21st, where the swell drops back to 7ft and 6ft, and with offshore east winds, it cleans up nicely. That’s a decent window for experienced surfers again, but it’s not the same beast as the first Sunday. The combined energy is down to 1689 and then 1069 – still solid, but not pumping.
The end of the outlook gets weird. On the 23rd of July, the swell spikes back to 10ft but with a 8-second period, and the wind is offshore. That’s a weird combo – heavy, short, dumpy waves. The 24th and 25th settle back to 6ft to 7ft with clean winds, which is good, but nothing special. The final days on the 26th and 27th are messy and onshore, so it’s a fizzle.
So, the clear standout is Sunday the 12th of July – morning and afternoon. That’s your session. The second week has some clean, smaller windows, but it’s not going to blow your mind. Crowds are “sometimes” an issue at Karekare, and on a Sunday like that, expect a few locals out, but it’s a big enough beach to spread out.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 11°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed afternoon, min 12°C on Fri afternoon). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sun 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | W 13 | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 18 | WSW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1907 | 1409 | 947 | 626 | 313 | 597 | 335 | 941 | 1944 | 5372 | 4640 | 3913 | 3326 | 2598 | 2181 | 1933 | 1941 | 2413 | 2670 | 5404 | 3832 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | off | off |
High Tide | 8:16PM3.04m | 8:43AM2.99m | 9:14PM3.17m | 9:40AM3.11m | 10:09PM3.28m | 10:33AM3.19m | 10:59PM3.34m | 11:23AM3.24m | 11:47PM3.36m | 12:10PM3.24m | 00:32AM3.32m | 12:55PM3.20m | 1:15AM3.23m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:40AM0.53m | 3:05PM0.47m | 3:39AM0.40m | 4:02PM0.37m | 4:32AM0.29m | 4:53PM0.30m | 5:21AM0.22m | 5:40PM0.27m | 6:06AM0.21m | 6:25PM0.29m | 6:50AM0.25m | 7:08PM0.37m | 7:34AM0.35m | ||||||||
— | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | |
5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | 5:25 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Feels °C | 12 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WNW 8 | WSW 12 | W 13 | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 18 | WSW 16 |
1907 | 1409 | 947 | 626 | 313 | 597 | 245 | 941 | 1944 | 5372 | 4640 | 3913 | 3326 | 2598 | 2181 | 1933 | 1941 | 2413 | 2670 | 5404 | 3832 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | W 24 | WSW 13 | WSW 20 | WSW 18 | W 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 24 | SW 22 | — | — |
— | — | — | — | 11 | 225 | 160 | 408 | 1070 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22 | 290 | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 22 | SW 20 | NW 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | 48 | 103 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 6 | — | WNW 8 | — | NW 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | 17 | 14 | 107 | — | 335 | — | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 7 | 166 | 127 | 6 | 49 | 122 | 95 | 129 | 95 | 48 | 122 | 49 | 6 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Auckland | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











