Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming for Karekare.

Right off the bat, this is a grim outlook for the next two weeks. The surf is not cooperating, and honestly, it’s a rough patch. After a few early windows that are way too big and messy, we’re looking at a long stretch of blown-out, oversized conditions that just aren’t surfable for most people. The first few days have some promise, but the wind and swell size are against us for the majority of the forecast.

The first real chance to get wet is on Sunday, but it’s a tough one. The swell is a solid 10 ft from the SW with a long period of 17 seconds, packing a massive 9942 units of combined energy. That’s a lot of water moving, and with a 12 mph SW cross-on breeze, it’s going to be choppy and heavy. It’s big, raw, and not for the faint of heart. The water is 58°, which is about average for this time of year.

Monday morning, July 20, is a different story. The swell drops to 8 ft from the WSW with a 14-second period, which is still a big, powerful groundswell, but the wind is glassy—a light 3 mph from the NW. That’s a major positive. The combined energy is still high at 2346, so this is a standout for experienced surfers only. The waves will be clean and lined up, but at 8 ft, it’s too big for beginners. The afternoon holds the same glassy conditions with the swell dropping to 7 ft.

Tuesday, July 21, offers a similar story. The morning has a 6 ft SW swell and a light 6 mph ESE cross-off breeze, making for clean conditions. The energy is moderate at 1161. It’s still a good wave for the experienced crew, but the afternoon turns a bit lumpy with a 9 mph cross-shore wind.

After that, it’s all downhill. From Wednesday, July 22, onward, the wind either turns onshore or gets strong, and the swell stays too big or too messy. The period from around July 24 through to the end of the month is a write-off—strong onshore winds, big messy swell, and poor surf quality. The energy numbers are huge, like 14264 on July 26, which is extreme, but with 28 mph winds, it’s more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session. The swell is over 12 ft for days, and the wind is howling straight onshore.

The only other potential window is around Thursday, July 30, when the swell drops to 4 ft with a light 6 mph cross-shore breeze, but the period is short at 11 seconds, and the energy is low. It’s marginal at best, and the tide might mess with it.

Bottom line: if you’re an experienced surfer, July 20 and 21 are your best bets. Get on it early. After that, it’s a two-week drought of clean, rideable waves. The setup is more interesting for the kite crowd than us paddlers.

Rusty.

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