Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a massive stretch of proper West Coast action on the cards for Karekare. The next few days are going to be a wild ride with some very serious size, but if you’re an experienced local, the back half of this week is where the magic happens.

It kicks off today, Wednesday morning, with a 7ft SW swell pushing a lot of energy (1895). The wind is cross-shore and it’s a bit lumpy, but it’s a start. The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is about average for the time of year. This afternoon gets messy as the wind cranks up to 19 mph, making things pretty average.

Thursday is where things get serious. By the morning, we’re looking at a 15ft SW swell with a long period of 15 seconds, and the energy is massive (8843). That is serious, powerful groundswell. The wind is cross-shore and lumpy though, so it’ll be a challenge. This size is for experts only – don’t even think about it if you’re not comfortable in big, heavy water. The period is long which means these waves will have plenty of punch, but at a beach break like this, it could close out a bit. Thursday afternoon is a write-off with strong winds.

Friday sees the swell still pumping at 10ft-12ft from the SW, with very long-period energy (17-18 seconds) and high energy readings (over 12000). Again, this is strictly for the experts. The afternoon does ease up with lighter cross-shore winds, making it a little cleaner, but it’s still a heavy slab of water.

Now, listen up. Saturday is where the standout window begins. The swell drops to a more manageable 7ft, still from the SW, but the wind turns offshore from the ESE, delivering clean conditions. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. The 15-second period means there’s still plenty of grunt, and that offshore wind will hold the face open for some proper barrels. Saturday afternoon and all of Sunday are also looking clean and fun, with light offshore or cross-off breezes and solid 6ft to 7ft groundswell. This is the pick of the entire forecast. If you can only surf one day, make it Saturday or Sunday.

Heading into the next week, Monday sees the swell dropping to a more user-friendly 4ft-5ft, still clean with light wind. It’s a good option if the weekend was too big for you, but the energy is much lower (543-795). Tuesday and Wednesday bring some smaller, less consistent swell with more onshore wind, so the quality drops right off.

The main standout is Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th of July. Solid SW groundswell (7ft-7ft at 15-16 seconds), clean conditions with offshore to cross-off winds, and plenty of energy. It’s going to be firing for those who know what they’re doing.

After that, there’s a long, drawn-out decline. From the 14th onward, we start seeing poor, small surf with onshore winds and barely any energy. The week of the 16th has a few moments of clean, offshore wind on a smaller swell (5ft-6ft), but it’s nothing like the weekend before. From the 20th to the 23rd, it’s basically dead – tiny waves and strong wind. Not worth paddling out.

Keep your eyes on Saturday and Sunday. That’s the one.

- Rusty

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