Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what’s coming down the line for Karekare over the next couple of weeks. Now, this is a spot that needs a specific swell direction to fire, and the next few days have some promise if you time it right, but there’s a lot of wind and size to deal with too.

The first real action kicks off on Thursday the 13th of August, but it’s a bit of a tease. The afternoon sees a solid 5ft swell from the west, with a long 12-second period, and the water temp is sitting around 57°F – pretty normal for this time of year. However, the combined energy is already cranking at (1397), which is moderate-to-strong, and while the wind is light from the west, it’s onshore. It looks a bit crumbly and marginal, honestly, not a full go.

The standout window opens on Friday the 14th. The morning is your best bet: a beautiful 6ft swell from the WSW, a *very* long 16-second period pushing that energy up to (2000). The biggest news is the offshore wind from the east at just 6 mph. That’s a major positive – it’ll be clean and lined up. Friday afternoon holds well too, with a slight increase to 7ft from the same direction, and a light cross-offshore breeze from the SE keeping it tidy. This is the pick of the first week: excellent conditions for those with some experience.

Saturday the 15th is when things get tricky. The morning still has a solid 7ft WSW swell with a 17-second period, very long period, and the energy is huge at (3060). But a 9 mph cross-shore wind from the south will chop it up. By Saturday afternoon, a 8ft swell and 16 mph cross-onshore winds from the SSW, combined with rain, turn it into a complete mess. The energy spikes to (4150), but it’s a no-go for surfing.

Sunday the 16th is for experts only, and even then, it’s a stretch. The swell hits 12ft from the SW, with a 16-second period and massive energy readings of (5747) and (6455). That’s a lot of water moving. The wind is tricky: cross-onshore in the morning and cross-offshore in the afternoon, but the sheer size makes this a heavy, potentially dangerous day. Too big for most.

Monday the 17th is a write-off. An 12ft to 10ft SW swell, but winds are howling from the south at 22 mph, creating a lumpy, choppy mess. Completely blown out. The energy is still in the thousands, but you wouldn’t want to be out there.

The swell drops through the rest of the week, but the wind stays messy. Tuesday the 18th through Wednesday the 19th has waist-to-chest high swell (4ft to 8ft) from the WSW, but it’s all crossed-up with moderate southerly winds. It’s marginal surf, best left for another day.

A glimmer of hope returns on Thursday the 20th. The morning clean-up is real: a 7ft WSW swell with a 14-second period, light cross-offshore breeze from the south at just 6 mph, and combined energy at (1809). The label calls it excellent, and it looks fun for experienced surfers. That’s your second good session.

After that, the forecast gets flaky. Friday the 21st has a smaller 6ft WSW swell, but cross-shore winds and dropping energy (964) make it look average. From Saturday the 22nd of August onwards, the surf goes to sleep.

There is a gap of about four days with very little on offer. Swell sizes drop below 5ft, and persistent onshore winds from the north-west (up to 25 mph) kill any chance of quality. The energy drops to as low as (323) – very weak. This is a blank run for the area.

The light at the end of the tunnel is later in the month. Around Wednesday the 26th of August, a new pulse shows up. The afternoon has a clean 6ft WSW swell with a cross-offshore breeze from the NNE. And then Thursday the 27th looks like the long-range standout. Thursday morning has a 7ft WSW swell with light NE offshore winds and energy at (2890). Thursday afternoon builds to an 8ft WSW swell with a 13-second period, still clean with a light offshore breeze, and the energy hits (3500). That’s the best-looking day on the horizon – promising, but as always with long-range calls, keep an eye on it.

So, to wrap it: Friday the 14th morning and Thursday the 20th morning are your sure bets. Look to the 27th for a possible big finish. The rest is wind-swept or too small. If it stays windy and choppy on those bigger days, a kite boarder might have a field day, but for paddling, pick your windows wisely.

Rusty.

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