Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with the long-range look at what’s on the cards for Karekare. Let’s cut straight to it.

The next few days are a bit of a mixed bag, but we’ve got a real standout window shaping up that’s worth circling on the calendar. Karekare is an exposed, intermediate-friendly beach break that really lights up on a solid SW groundswell, and there’s plenty of that on the way.

First up, the water is sitting at 57°F, which is pretty much normal for this time of year – nothing to write home about, just your standard winter chill.

Right now, we’re looking at a big, powerful pulse of swell. On Tuesday the 25th, we’ve got a 10ft SW groundswell with a 15-second period, packing a massive 4407 units of combined energy. The wind is blowing onshore from the WSW at 12 mph. Honestly, it’s going to be a beast – way too big and raw for a comfortable paddle, even for experienced surfers. The conditions are just too meaty to recommend.

Wednesday the 26th drops a little to 8ft, but the wind is still onshore and the energy is still high at 2378 units. The tide and wind combo just isn’t coming together for clean waves. It’s a bit of a write-off for a quality session.

Thursday the 27th is where things get interesting. The morning is still a bit lumpy, but Thursday afternoon is the real standout. The swell drops to a much more manageable 7ft from the WSW, with a 13-second period, and the wind turns glassy – dead calm, offshore conditions. The water will be smooth as silk, and the energy is still a solid 1400 units. This is a prime window for experienced surfers to get some clean, well-shaped lines. That’s the one to aim for.

From Friday the 28th through to the start of the following week, the swell drops off significantly, dropping to around 3ft to 4ft. The wind is messy, mostly cross-shore or cross-on, and the energy is weak (under 1000 units). There’s a brief moment on Saturday the 29th morning with a light cross-offshore NE breeze and clean conditions on a 3ft SW swell, but it’s small and inconsistent. It’s not really worth getting excited about for a dedicated session.

Sunday the 30th and Monday the 31st get ugly. Strong onshore winds, building swell back up to 8ft and then 15ft, with massive energy readings – 3864 and 9344 units. The wind is cross-onshore and choppy, making it a complete mess. This is pure, unsurfable chaos.

The first week of September looks like a write-off too. We’re looking at big, powerful, and dangerous conditions. Swells ranging from 10ft to a massive 18ft, combined with strong onshore winds (19-34 mph) and energy readings hitting 10,000 to 19,000 units. It’s just too big, too windy, and too dangerous for paddling. Honestly, if you’re into kitesurfing, this stretch might be worth a look, but for a regular surfer, stay well clear.

After that, we get a bit of a rebuild. By the 7th of September, we’re still looking at 10ft to 15ft swells, but the wind is lighter onshore. The sets will be big, but the conditions are still on the heavy side.

But then, we get another promising window. On Tuesday the 8th of September, the swell drops to 5ft from the SW, with a 15-second period, and a light cross-offshore NE breeze. The energy is a solid 1595 units, and the conditions are clean. That’s a really nice, clean, accessible swell for a good session.

And Wednesday the 9th of September brings a bit of a curveball. The swell swings to the NW, with a short 8-second period, reaching 8ft. The wind is light and cross-offshore, so it’ll be clean, but the short period from the NW means it’s going to be a bit more jumbled and less powerful. It’s a different kind of wave, but for the experienced surfer, there could be some fun ones to be had.

So, to wrap it up: the absolute standout is Thursday afternoon the 27th of August. Glassy, clean 7ft SW groundswell, ideal for experienced surfers. Keep an eye on Tuesday the 8th of September as well for another clean, accessible window. The rest of the run is either too big, too windy, or too small. Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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