Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s have a look at what Karekare’s got cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.

Gotta be straight with ya – the opening stretch of the forecast is a bit of a fizzer. There’s no use paddlin’ out this Friday or Saturday. Friday’s a complete write-off with a howling cross-on NW wind at 19 mph making a mess of an 8ft WSW swell, and the water’s sittin’ at a pretty average 57°F. That combined wave energy is a hefty 3178, but it’s all just lumpy, choppy slop. Saturday serves up way too much juice – an 12ft to 13ft WSW swell, with a long period of 14 seconds, but it’s simply too big for this setup, plus the onshore winds’ll be blowin’.

The first real glimmer of hope comes through on Sunday the 6th in the morning. We’ve got a solid 12ft swell from the WSW, with a really long period of 16 seconds – that’s groundswell with some serious grunt. The combined energy is a huge 6432, so that ocean is absolutely loaded. The wind’s a light WNW cross-on, which isn’t perfect, but it’s manageable. That long period will want to run a bit straight on the beach, so keep an eye on the tide, but there’ll be plenty of power. The crowds can be a factor here – they’re ‘sometimes’ an issue, so get in early.

After that, it’s a messy week. Monday the 7th has a bumpy cross-shore wind and a big 10ft south-west swell, but the conditions will be lumpy. Tuesday to Thursday is a mix of onshore winds and marginal, poor-quality surf. It’s not worth your time, really.

Now, for the real standout – but it’s a long way off, so take it with a grain of salt. Friday the 11th of September is looking absolutely mental. The models are spittin’ out a monstrous 23ft to 26ft swell from the WSW, with a very long period of 19-20 seconds. The combined energy readings are off the charts at 35681 and 43921 – that’s a proper big ocean event. It’s way, way too big for the average punter, and the wind is a fresh cross-shore. This is strictly for the big-wave crew, and only if you know Karekare’s channel inside-out. The swell direction matches the optimum SW.

Followin’ that, the swell drops from Saturday the 12th, but it’s still in the 10ft to 20ft range for a few days with strong, messy winds. Not ideal for a fun paddle.

The only other moment that looks even remotely clean is the morning of Tuesday the 15th of September, when a 10ft SW groundswell meets a light S cross-offshore wind, creating clean faces. But that’s still a big swell (over 8ft) and that combined energy of 4101 is still massive, so it’s expert territory only.

To be honest, outside of that insane swell on the 11th, which is a proper weather-window kind of event, the rest of the period is pretty average for a standard surf. Karekare is fairly consistent, so when it’s not good here, it means the whole coast is probably coppin’ it. The ocean’s gonna be angry for a lot of this run.

Stay safe, pick your moments.

Rusty.

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