Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the stretch ahead for Karekare. There’s a lot of juice in the water for the next week or so, but it’s gonna be a story of too much of a good thing. This beach is exposed and picks up a heap of west-southwest groundswell, but when it’s pumping that hard, it’s not for the faint-hearted. The water temp is running at about 57°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so nothing weird there.

The first decent pulse arrives on Saturday the 15th with a solid 8ft WSW swell, but the 25 km/h SSW cross-breeze is going to chop it up. The energy reading is strong at 4098, but it’s messy. Sunday the 16th sees the swell holding at 8ft, climbing to 12ft in the afternoon. That’s a big, powerful 16-second groundswell. The morning’s a bit lumpy, but the arvo lightens off to a 10 km/h S breeze. That’s the first window where it cleans up, but at 12ft, this is expert territory only. Monday the 17th keeps that size at 13ft with a 30 km/h southerly cross-breeze – it’s just too big and rough for a normal paddle. The energy is huge, reading 6687. We’re looking at a beach that’s just a washing machine.

After that, it drops but stays messy through the middle of the week. Tuesday the 18th through Friday the 21st, we’ve got 5ft to 8ft of swell, but the wind is all over the shop – cross, cross-on, onshore – and the period shortens up. It’s a lot of lumpy, blown-out lines with barely any score. The combined energy fades from 2056 down to 743 by the 22nd. Not worth a paddle.

Now, the standout in this whole run is Sunday the 23rd. The swell drops away to a tiny 2-3ft, but it’s clean. A light NNE cross-offshore breeze, and the period is up at 18-19 seconds – proper long-range groundswell. Energy readings are low, around 562-866, but the quality is there. It’s small, but it’ll be glassy and lined-up. For the experienced guys on a longboard or a fish, this is the pick of the fortnight. It’s inconsistent and small, but when it’s that clean, you take it.

Then it gets silly again. Monday the 24th sees it jump back to 12ft with a short 9-second period, and by Tuesday the 25th we’re back to 12-10ft of heavy WSW swell with a 16-second period. The energy is strong again, over 5000. But the wind is onshore and strong, making Karekare a close-out. This is a case of plenty of power with no shape. If you’re into kites, this might look fun, but as a paddle, it’s a no-go.

The final stretch from the 27th into the 30th has some promise. Thursday the 27th eases to 6ft, but it’s still stormy. Then Friday the 28th cleans up with a light SSE cross-offshore and a 4ft WSW swell – small, clean, and beautiful. Energy is low again, but the quality is high. Then Saturday the 29th that WNW swell jumps back to 10ft with a short 10-11 second period, and Sunday the 30th is the real gem. The morning is glassy with an easterly breeze at 5 km/h, a 8ft WNW swell, and energy around 1895. That’s an excellent condition for experienced surfers – clean, powerful, and hollow. That Sunday is the other standout, and it’s over a week away, so treat it as promising but not locked in.

So, the story is: too big and messy for most of it, with two clean windows – the 23rd for small waves and the 30th for a proper sized, glassy session. Don’t get caught out by the size in between.

Rusty.

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