
Surf Forecasts:
Karekare surf forecast from 19 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 19 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 26 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 14,264 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 19 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:
The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 6PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-onshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 5.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 26) at 9AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 3s period and expected on Monday (Jul 20) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6PM (Sun 19th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 6PM (Sun 19th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 9AM (Sun 26th Jul) | 18ft (5.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming for Karekare.
Right off the bat, this is a grim outlook for the next two weeks. The surf is not cooperating, and honestly, it’s a rough patch. After a few early windows that are way too big and messy, we’re looking at a long stretch of blown-out, oversized conditions that just aren’t surfable for most people. The first few days have some promise, but the wind and swell size are against us for the majority of the forecast.
The first real chance to get wet is on Sunday, but it’s a tough one. The swell is a solid 10 ft from the SW with a long period of 17 seconds, packing a massive 9942 units of combined energy. That’s a lot of water moving, and with a 12 mph SW cross-on breeze, it’s going to be choppy and heavy. It’s big, raw, and not for the faint of heart. The water is 58°, which is about average for this time of year.
Monday morning, July 20, is a different story. The swell drops to 8 ft from the WSW with a 14-second period, which is still a big, powerful groundswell, but the wind is glassy—a light 3 mph from the NW. That’s a major positive. The combined energy is still high at 2346, so this is a standout for experienced surfers only. The waves will be clean and lined up, but at 8 ft, it’s too big for beginners. The afternoon holds the same glassy conditions with the swell dropping to 7 ft.
Tuesday, July 21, offers a similar story. The morning has a 6 ft SW swell and a light 6 mph ESE cross-off breeze, making for clean conditions. The energy is moderate at 1161. It’s still a good wave for the experienced crew, but the afternoon turns a bit lumpy with a 9 mph cross-shore wind.
After that, it’s all downhill. From Wednesday, July 22, onward, the wind either turns onshore or gets strong, and the swell stays too big or too messy. The period from around July 24 through to the end of the month is a write-off—strong onshore winds, big messy swell, and poor surf quality. The energy numbers are huge, like 14264 on July 26, which is extreme, but with 28 mph winds, it’s more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session. The swell is over 12 ft for days, and the wind is howling straight onshore.
The only other potential window is around Thursday, July 30, when the swell drops to 4 ft with a light 6 mph cross-shore breeze, but the period is short at 11 seconds, and the energy is low. It’s marginal at best, and the tide might mess with it.
Bottom line: if you’re an experienced surfer, July 20 and 21 are your best bets. Get on it early. After that, it’s a two-week drought of clean, rideable waves. The setup is more interesting for the kite crowd than us paddlers.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Mon morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Fri afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (calm on Thu morning, strong winds from the WSW by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 8 | WSW 8 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
5522 | 4342 | 2962 | 2346 | 1906 | 1310 | 1161 | 1011 | 828 | 486 | 330 | 209 | 668 | 1288 | 1170 | 384 | 403 | 688 | 4156 | 4623 | 9329 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | on | glassy | glassy | off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 1:38PM3.10m | 1:57AM3.10m | 2:21PM2.97m | 2:40AM2.92m | 3:07PM2.81m | 3:25AM2.73m | 3:57PM2.65m | 4:19AM2.55m | 4:55PM2.53m | 5:21AM2.43m | 6:00PM2.49m | 6:28AM2.39m | 7:06PM2.53m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:51PM0.50m | 8:17AM0.49m | 8:36PM0.65m | 9:03AM0.65m | 9:24PM0.82m | 9:52AM0.82m | 10:18PM0.97m | 10:47AM0.96m | 11:19PM1.07m | 11:46AM1.04m | 00:25AM1.10m | 12:48PM1.05m | 1:30AM1.06m | ||||||||
7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | |
— | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | |
mm | — | — | 3 | 6 | 6 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — | 4 | 7 | 4 | — | 1 | 6 |
Temp °C | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | NW 7 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 |
5522 | 4342 | 2962 | 2346 | 1906 | 1310 | 1161 | 1011 | 828 | 486 | 330 | 209 | 668 | 1288 | 1170 | 384 | 138 | 397 | 4156 | 4623 | 9329 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | S 7 | S 7 | — | — | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 6 | — | — | WSW 7 | W 22 | NW 7 | — | WSW 18 | — |
— | — | — | — | 4 | 4 | — | — | 31 | 51 | 102 | 121 | 76 | — | — | 30 | 9 | 16 | — | 666 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 22 | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | — | — | — | — | E 3 | — | — | — | SW 4 | SW 6 | SW 7 | — | — | — | NW 5 | WSW 8 | WSW 8 | — | — | NW 7 |
4420 | — | — | — | — | 5 | — | — | — | 18 | 94 | 153 | — | — | — | 110 | 403 | 688 | — | — | 415 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 90 | 90 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 172 | 172 | 6 | 0 | 317 | 319 | 364 | 90 | 132 | 358 | 332 | 548 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Auckland | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










