Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, it’s Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s coming our way at Karekare. This 16-day run has a rough start, a couple of dreamy windows, and then some real heavy water that’ll only suit the brave.

Monday the 3rd through Wednesday the 5th is a washout. We’ve got howling southerly winds, cross-onshore, tearing up everything. The swell runs from a messy 5 ft on Monday morning (combined energy of 2166) up to a massive 12 ft by Tuesday afternoon (combined energy of 3715). It’s lumpy, choppy, and just ugly. The water temp is 57°, right on average for now. Don’t bother with a paddle these days.

Thursday the 6th is a nice reprieve. A light southeasterly breeze cleans up a 5 ft swell out of the SW (combined energy of 783). It’s got a 12-second period, which is nice. The morning is your window; it’s clean. The afternoon turns a little cross-on. It’s not huge, but it’s the first decent look we’ve had.

The absolute standout is this coming Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th. Sunday morning: 4 ft of WSW swell, a long 19-second period (combined energy of 1792), and light winds making it glassy. That’s the kind of session that sticks with you. The long period might make it run a bit straight on the beach, but if it lines up, get out there. Then Monday the 10th is even better. A perfect offshore breeze from the ESE holds all day. We start with clean 3 ft in the morning, building to a punchy 5 ft in the afternoon (combined energy of 1459). The 17-second period is very long, so watch out for the sets, but with that offshore wind, it’s going to be pristine. That is the best call of the whole forecast.

Tuesday the 11th keeps that offshore flow, but the swell drops to 3 ft. It’s clean but small.

Then things get serious. From Wednesday the 12th on, the swell gets huge. By the 13th, we’re looking at 12 ft (combined energy of 6106) with a clean wind, but that’s expert-only territory. It just keeps climbing. The 15th and 16th show 15 ft to 16 ft swells (combined energy hitting 12842) with rough cross-onshore winds. That’s not a paddle board day; that’s kite-surfing territory. On Monday the 17th, there’s a brief glassy window on a massive 12 ft swell (combined energy of 4873), but it’s still just too big for this break. The 18th closes out with onshore winds again.

So: the first half of the week is garbage. Your golden hours are Thursday the 6th morning, and then lock in Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th for the cleanest, most lined-up conditions. After that, the second week is all about massive, raw swell and only for the experts.

Get on those clean days.

Rusty.

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