
Surf Forecasts:
Karekare surf forecast from 6 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 6 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 11 Sep, 6PM (local time) - 20ft (6.0m), 18s period, WSW swell with 20,794 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 6 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:
The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 06) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 2.0m and 7s. The wind is predicted to be cross-shore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 6.0m 18s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Sun 6th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Sun 6th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Fri 11th Sep) | 20ft (6.0m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what we've got coming down the pipe for Karekare.
Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you. This 16-day window is a real mixed bag, and for the most part, it’s going to be a waiting game. We've got some proper, serious sized swell on the way, but the wind and conditions are going to be the big story. We’re looking at a stretch of the best part of a week with very little to get excited about, so patience is key.
The water temp at Karekare is sitting around 58°, which is pretty much what you'd expect for this time of year. Nothing out of the ordinary there.
The first real standout, and honestly the only true highlight in the near term, is Wednesday the 9th of September. That morning, the wind drops out completely, going glassy. The swell is a clean 5ft from the SW with a solid 12-second period. The combined energy is sitting at a moderate 919, but with the glassy conditions, this is going to be the cleanest the waves will look for a while. The offshore wind from ENE is perfect. This is a morning for the longboard or a mid-length, just out there enjoying the calm.
After that, the wind turns onshore again and stays messy. The swell keeps coming, but it’s choppy and lumpy. It’s a write-off until we get to the following week.
Now, for the more experienced and brave among you, there's some serious, heavy water on the horizon. We’ve got a major pulse coming through from Friday the 11th of September. That morning, the combined swell energy hits a massive 20286, with a 16ft swell from the WSW at an 18-second period from a groundswell. That is a lot of water moving. By Saturday the 12th, we’re looking at 21ft to 25ft swells from the WSW. This is expert-only territory. It’s way over 8ft. The cross-onshore winds will make it a wild, messy beast. Honestly, if you’re not on a rescue craft, this is more of a show than a go.
That big energy sticks around for a few days, dropping back into the 12ft to 16ft range the following week, but the wind remains a problem. We get a slight reprieve on Friday the 18th of September afternoon. The swell is 12ft from the WSW with a 15-second period, and the wind eases to a light breeze from the SSW, creating a light cross-shore. The combined energy is a strong 6611. This is a much more manageable window if you’ve got the skills to handle a big, powerful swell.
So, to sum it up: don't bother until Wednesday the 9th of September for the clean small stuff. After that, it’s a waiting game for the big swell to drop and the wind to cooperate, with Friday the 18th of September afternoon being the best bet for the bigger wave crew.
Stay safe out there.
- Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun night, min 11°C on Tue morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NNW on Mon morning, calm by Tue night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 21mm), heaviest during Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Thu afternoon). Winds increasing (light winds from the WSW on Wed afternoon, strong winds from the SW by Fri morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Sun 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 11 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 18 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | SW 18 | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
7367 | 4543 | 3837 | 3348 | 1712 | 1699 | 1132 | 952 | 686 | 575 | 556 | 719 | 671 | 5152 | 15099 | 18932 | 17127 | 13997 | 13146 | 12144 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross | glassy | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 5:28PM2.60m | 6:01AM2.48m | 6:45PM2.71m | 7:17AM2.63m | 7:53PM2.89m | 8:21AM2.83m | 8:49PM3.08m | 9:14AM3.02m | 9:37PM3.23m | 10:00AM3.16m | 10:20PM3.31m | 10:42AM3.22m | 11:00PM3.31m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:54PM0.86m | 12:23PM0.75m | 1:15AM0.72m | 1:40PM0.60m | 2:20AM0.49m | 2:41PM0.40m | 3:13AM0.27m | 3:31PM0.24m | 3:58AM0.12m | 4:14PM0.15m | 4:39AM0.06m | 4:55PM0.14m | ||||||||
— | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | |
6:05 | — | — | 6:06 | — | — | 6:06 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:08 | — | |
mm | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 7 | 2 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Temp °C | 15 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 11 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | W 10 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 10 | SW 20 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — |
7367 | 4543 | 3837 | 3348 | 1102 | 1699 | 506 | 952 | 686 | 575 | 556 | 634 | 450 | 1134 | 15099 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | SW 14 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WNW 9 | WSW 21 | WSW 19 | SW 18 | SW 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | 1712 | 203 | 101 | 80 | 30 | 288 | 475 | 719 | 671 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | SSW 11 | — | — | S 5 | SW 21 | NW 8 | NW 8 | SW 26 | WSW 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | 240 | — | — | 11 | 218 | 17 | 15 | 26 | 215 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 8 | NW 7 | WNW 9 | WNW 9 | SSE 3 | SSW 8 | SW 11 | S 5 | — | — | W 3 | W 5 | WNW 6 | WSW 16 | SW 13 | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 |
14 | 405 | 1294 | 1261 | 7 | 217 | 1132 | 23 | — | — | 3 | 54 | 406 | 5152 | 5256 | 18932 | 17127 | 13997 | 13146 | 12144 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 319 | 319 | 308 | 49 | 49 | 0 | 77 | 86 | 6 | 0 | 152 | 129 | 90 | 113 | 49 | 96 | 192 | 95 | 358 | 234 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Auckland | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










