Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming for us.

Alright, look, the next few days are a bit of a write-off for Karekare, I gotta be straight with you. There’s a lot of onshore wind and lumpy, messy conditions right through the start of the week. We’re looking at a solid wall of SW swell, around 5 ft on Wednesday morning, but with a 12 mph cross-on breeze, it’s just choppy and poor. Not worth paddling out for. That theme carries on through the rest of the working week – the wind is just not playing ball.

Now, Thursday the 23rd is where it gets interesting. There’s a real window of opportunity in the morning. The swell is still a solid 5 ft from the SW, but the wind swings to the south at a mere 3 mph and goes glassy. The combined wave energy is strong (1037), and with a 14-second period, this is proper groundswell. It’s going to be clean and holding plenty of power. This is for experienced surfers though – that size and period at Karekare can be a handful. The water temp is 58°, which is about average for the time of year. This is your standout for the week.

The rest of the weekend and into next week gets messy again. We get a massive pulse on Saturday the 25th, with swell hitting 18 ft to 20 ft, but it’s wrapped in a 25-28 mph cross-onshore. The energy is extreme (6925 and 13068), but it’s just a washing machine. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle. Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th see the swell drop a bit, but it’s still too big (over 8 ft) and the wind is still a problem. The forecast says it’s too big for the break, and I agree.

There’s a long gap of poor conditions. The next real chance doesn’t come until Monday the 3rd of August. That morning, the wind goes light offshore from the ENE at 3 mph, with a 5 ft SW swell at a very long 18 seconds. The energy is strong (2145), and it’s clean. That’s a beautiful morning for a paddle, especially for those who know how to handle a long-period groundswell at a beach break. Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th also offer clean mornings, with light winds and good, lined-up swell (5 ft to 6 ft). These are the ones to circle on the calendar, but they’re a good week and a half out, so keep an eye on it.

To sum it up, don’t bother with the first week. Thursday the 23rd morning is your best bet for a clean, powerful session. The following week, from Monday the 3rd of August onwards, looks promising with a string of clean mornings, but we’ll have to see how it firms up.

Rusty.

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