Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Karekare over the next 16 days. Karekare is an exposed west coast spot, and it’s been picking up a decent SW groundswell. The water’s sitting at 56°F, which is just a touch cooler than average for this time of year, but nothing too wild.

We’ve got a bit of a rough start, with the first real chance coming Tuesday the 25th, but honestly that’s no go for paddle surfing—10ft swell with a 15-second period is pumping huge energy (3526 combined) and it’s cross-on at 12 mph. That’s way too big and messy. The same goes for Wednesday the 26th; still too much size and wind.

Thursday the 27th is where it starts to get interesting. That morning it’s still a bit on the big side at 7ft with light cross-on wind, but the afternoon is the standout for this entire window. The wind drops to glassy—zero, dead calm—and the swell settles to a clean 7ft from the WSW, period at 13 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, so it’ll have good shape and power, though at beach breaks it can break a bit straight. For Karekare, being a beach setup, this could still be a ripper for experienced surfers. The combined energy (1400) is moderate but the glassy conditions make it pure gold. Crowds are possible here, so get down early.

Friday the 28th drops off quickly—small and cross-shore winds ruin it. Saturday the 29th morning is another clean window: 6ft swell from the WSW, cross-off breeze at 6 mph, and clean conditions. That’s a solid session for intermediate to experienced surfers, with moderate wave energy (1374). The afternoon gets messy again.

Then we hit a big gap. From Sunday the 30th right through to Wednesday the 9th of September, it’s mostly blown-out, too big, or just plain ugly. There’s a monster pulse on Monday the 31st of August with a 20ft swell and strong cross-shore winds—that’s expert-only and honestly more like a kite-surfing day. The combined energy hits 13103 and then 21415 on the afternoon—serious power but onshore and cross-chop wreck it.

Wednesday the 9th of September afternoon is the next real opportunity. Swell drops to 6ft from the WSW, period 15 seconds, with a light cross-off breeze. Clean conditions and moderate energy (1648). It’s a long way out, so treat it as promising but not locked in. That’s the best of the later run.

So, to sum it up: Thursday the 27th afternoon is your clear winner—glassy, solid 7ft groundswell, and moderate energy. Saturday the 29th morning is a solid backup. After that, you’re waiting until the 9th of September for another good chance. The rest is either too big, too windy, or not worth the paddle.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty

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