Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s break down the same outlook but in feet and miles per hour.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a proper swell hitting, but it’s way too much to handle. Monday the 24th sees a 13 ft WSW swell with a 15-second period, cranking out a massive combined energy of 7701. That’s a serious amount of water moving, but the wind is cross-on from the SW at 9 mph, making it choppy and messy. Even with the wind and tide being favorable, it’s just too big for a paddle. This is expert-only territory, if anything.

Tuesday the 25th is more of the same – a 10 ft WSW swell, still a 15-second period, but onshore wind from the WSW at 12 mph. The morning might have a bit of form, but the afternoon is a write-off. Wednesday the 26th drops slightly to 8 ft, but still onshore wind and the combined energy is still huge (2378 to 2760). These are days for watching, not surfing.

We get a bit of a breather from Thursday the 27th into Friday the 28th, with the swell dropping to 7 ft and then 3 ft, but the wind is still messy – cross-on or cross-off with a bit of chop. The combined energy drops to around 900-1400, which is moderate, but the quality is marginal. Saturday the 29th is similar, with a 4 ft swell but choppy cross-on wind. Sunday the 30th is a write-off with 19 mph cross-on wind and rain showers.

Then on Monday the 31st, we get a massive spike again – 12 ft to 13 ft from the SW, but with a fresh 22 mph cross-on breeze. That’s just a washing machine, and the combined energy is over 3000. Not good for surfing.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Tuesday the 1st of September, the swell is still big at 12 ft from the SW, but the wind drops to a light breeze from the WSW at 6 mph. The combined energy is still massive (6133), and the wind and tide are favorable, but it’s just too big for a standard paddle. Only for the most experienced. Wednesday the 2nd is similar, 10 ft, still too big.

We finally get a window on Thursday the 4th of September. The expected swell is 13 ft from the W, but with a clean cross-off wind from the NE at 6 mph. The combined energy is 4547. The wind and tide are favorable, but again, at 13 ft, it’s too big for most. Friday the 5th is the standout: the swell is 16 ft from the WSW with an 11-second period, and the wind goes glassy from the ENE at 3 mph. The combined energy is over 6000. This is a giant, clean, powerful swell. Karekare is an exposed beach break, and with that period (11 seconds), it’s going to be a freight train, but for a very small group of big-wave chargers, this could be the session. It’s the best on offer, but only for experts.

The following week, from Saturday the 6th to Tuesday the 8th, the swell drops back to the 5 ft to 8 ft range, and the wind is mostly clean from the NE. The combined energy is moderate (675 to 2053). These are the days for the average surfer. Tuesday the 8th looks the best of that bunch, with a 7 ft to 7 ft WSW swell, a 14-second period, and clean cross-off wind from the NE at 9 mph. The water temp is about 57°F, which is roughly average for the time of year, not something to worry about.

Overall, the first week is a mixed bag of too big and too windy. The real standout is the 5th of September with that glassy, massive swell, but it’s for the brave and the prepared. The second week has more manageable, cleaner surf for the rest of us.

Rusty.

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