Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, grab a coffee, let's talk Karekare. The forecast's got a bit of a twisted sense of humour – for the next week and a half, it’s all about massive, messy power that's just too much for a paddle. Swell energy is huge, like 1936 up to a ridiculous 45185 (that's the combined energy), but it's all coming with cross-onshore winds, or just so big it's dangerous. The water temp is 58°F, pretty standard for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

The first real window you could even think about is Thursday the 18th of September. That morning is the standout. Swell drops back to a more manageable 7ft from the WSW, but the real story is the wind – light airs from the SSE, right out of the cross-off quarter. The report calls it "clean," and for this open, exposed beach, that's a rare gift. The energy is still moderate at 2184, so you'll feel it, but should be proper waves. The afternoon gets a bit sloppy again, but that morning session is the one.

Other than that, it's a long slog. For a solid week before that, from the 3rd up to the 17th, the swell is either too monstrous – over 8ft up to 20ft – or the wind is just onshore and chopping everything up. There are times when conditions are favourable, but the swell is just plain too big for this spot, even on the Monday afternoon the 7th when it goes glassy offshore (ENE 6 mph) on a 10ft WSW groundswell. That's a pro-only or tow-in day, not for a normal paddle. The period is often long (14-17 seconds), which gives those big walls, but at a beach setup, that long-period groundswell can just make it close out.

So, I'm calling Thursday the 18th morning as your best bet. It’s not a perfect forecast, but it’s the only time the door cracks open a little for some clean, intermediate-level waves. Everything else in this 16-day block is a write-off unless you're a kite surfer looking for a wild ride.

Rusty.

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