Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let's look at what's coming up for Karekare. Water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The next 16 days are a mixed bag, but we've got a solid window of clean conditions to start. Thursday 27 August is the standout. Thursday morning is a bit messy with a light cross-onshore from the NNW at 3 mph, but the swell is a solid 7 ft from the WSW with a 13-second period – that's a nice groundswell with moderate energy (1497). The real magic happens Thursday afternoon, though. The wind drops to glassy – dead calm – and the swell settles to 7 ft from the WSW at 13 seconds. That's excellent for experienced surfers, with clean, glassy conditions. The combined swell energy is moderate (1400). This is the best of the whole run.

Friday 28 August sees the swell drop to 4 ft, and the wind swings to a cross-offshore NNE at 12 mph, keeping things clean. The period is a nice 14 seconds, so the waves will have some shape. It's a marginal day, but still rideable.

Saturday 29 August is a write-off. Morning brings moderate rain and a cross-shore N wind at 9 mph, with weak 3 ft swell. The afternoon gets worse with 19 mph SSW winds and lumpy, poor conditions. Not worth paddling out.

Sunday 30 August through to Friday 5 September is a long stretch of big, messy, and dangerous surf. Strong winds from the SW and WSW, gusting 19–22 mph, and swell heights from 8 ft to 15 ft. The period is mixed, but the energy is massive – from 1488 all the way up to 12494. This is well over 8 ft, so it's expert-only territory, and with the wind onshore or cross-onshore, it's going to be a washing machine. The conditions are poor for surfing; this is more kite-surfing territory.

Saturday 6 September morning offers a bit of hope. Swell is 8 ft from the WSW with a very long 17-second period, but the cross-shore NW wind at 12 mph will create chop. The energy is huge (6595), but it's marginal. The afternoon is back to poor conditions.

From Tuesday 8 September onward, the swell stays big (12 ft to 16 ft), but the wind starts to improve. Tuesday 8 September afternoon has a smaller cross-onshore wind at 9 mph, but the swell is massive at 16 ft and 16 seconds – way too big for all but the most experienced. Wednesday 9 September looks promising: the wind turns cross-offshore from the ENE at 6 mph, making things clean, but the swell is still 13 ft (16 seconds) in the morning and 12 ft (16 seconds) in the afternoon. It's still too big for most, but the conditions will be clean. The energy is strong (8362).

Thursday 10 September sees the swell drop to 6 ft, with a clean cross-offshore breeze from the ENE at 9 mph. The period is a long 16 seconds, so the waves will be well-shaped. This is a marginal day but could be a good option for those who can handle the long-period swell, which might break a bit straight at the beach. The energy is moderate (1961).

Friday 11 September brings a big swell back (12 ft to 15 ft) with a cross-offshore NE wind, but the wind is strong (16–19 mph) and heavy rain is forecast. The energy is huge (10184–9647), and it's still too big for the average surfer.

So, to sum it up: Thursday 27 August afternoon is the clear winner. Glassy conditions, solid 7 ft groundswell, and clean faces. Don't waste it. The rest of the window is mostly too big, too windy, or just plain messy. Keep an eye on Thursday 10 September morning for a smaller, clean option.

Rusty, signing off.

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