Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s shaping up at Karekare – and I’ll be straight with ya, this is a tricky 16-day stretch. We’ve got a massive amount of ocean energy on the way, but the timing and the winds are gonna be the big story.

Right out of the gate, Thursday the 10th is a wash for us. We’ve got a 6 ft swell from the WSW, with a 12 mph cross-onshore wind. The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is about normal for this time of year – nothing wild there. The overall energy is strong, but that nasty wind is gonna make it a choppy mess.

The real buzz comes Friday the 11th, and that is our standout window. The swell is predicted to be a thumping 10 ft from the WSW with a very long period of 19 seconds. But listen – this is not the day for a learner. At 10 ft, that’s expert-only territory. The combined energy is massive, but for a beach break like Karekare, that long period groundswell can make it close out and race through. Still, if you’re a charger with a gun, the morning is looking favorable. The wind is a fresh cross-offshore from the south at 19 mph, which will keep the faces reasonably clean. The crowds here can be a factor, so get in early.

Saturday the 12th keeps pumping, but it gets gnarly. We’re looking at a 16 ft swell in the morning from the SW. That is monstrous. The energy reading is off the charts. This is absolutely experts only, and with a strong 25 mph cross-onshore, it’s going to be messy and dangerous. By the afternoon it drops to 12 ft, but still onshore. Not a good call for most of us.

We then roll through a whole week of poor surf conditions. Sunday the 13th through to Saturday the 19th of September is just a write-off. The winds stay onshore and howling, and the swell stays way oversized and lumpy. We’re seeing repeated daily values over 13 ft with strong breezes. Unless you’re a tow-in crew, stay home.

The energy finally starts to back off around Sunday the 21st, but the wind is still a problem. We get a couple of days of cleaner, smaller conditions on the 22nd and 23rd, with some WSW onshore wind and moderate breezes, but the surf is really marginal.

Then, we see a little light at the end of the tunnel. Thursday the 24th of September offers our second standout. It’s a much more manageable 5 ft from the SW, but the real win is the morning wind: dead glass – a full 0 mph from the SSE. The energy is moderate, but with that period of 13 seconds, the waves will have some shape. The water is still clean. If you can wait that long, this is the session for a mid-length or even a log. The winds are light on the 25th too, but the swell is a bit smaller and the direction is tricky.

So, overall: don’t bother paddling out for the next 10 days unless you’re an absolute pro looking for a beatdown. The only true standouts for the average surfer are the glassy morning on the 24th. For the chargers, dawn patrol on the 11th is the call, but know what you’re getting into.

Rusty.

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