
Surf Forecasts:
Karekare surf forecast from 12 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 13 Sep, 6PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 12 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 10,772 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 13 Sep, 6PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 17s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:
The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 13) at 6PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 4.0m and 17s period with a secondary swell of 4.0m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be cross-onshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 4.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.2m 8s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 19) at 3PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6PM (Sun 13th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 17s |
| Best Surf | 6PM (Sun 13th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Sat 12th Sep) | 15ft (4.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Karekare over the next couple of weeks. I won't lie to you, the start of this run is a bit of a write-off. We're looking at a solid, powerful swell, but the wind is a classic New Zealand cross-onshore for days on end, just wrecking any chance of clean waves. The water temp is sitting at 59°F, which is about average for this time of year – no nasty surprises there.
From now through until the 16th of September, it’s pretty grim. The swell is pumping, with combined wave energy readings well into the thousands – we're talking 7824 on Saturday morning and 10400 on Sunday – but it’s all for nothing with that 22-19 mph cross-onshore wind. It’s lumpy, messy, and just not worth paddling out for. You’d be better off watching the whitewash from the sand.
Things start to look a little more promising, but it's a slow burn. On the 17th and 18th, the wind finally starts to turn in our favour. On the morning of the 18th, we get a crisp cross-offshore wind from the Southeast, and the swell is hanging around 10 ft from the Southwest with a very long 17 second period. The wave energy is still massive at 5603. Now, that is a big, powerful groundswell. For a beach like Karekare, a 10 ft SW swell at 17 seconds is going to be a heavy, bowling wall. This is expert territory only. The same goes for the afternoon with an offshore breeze – it's going to look perfect on the surface, but it will be a serious handful. The 19th and 20th see the wind get a bit messy again, but the 21st of September is another day with that strong SW groundswell and a cross-shore wind – again, big and powerful.
But honestly, the real standout, the one you want to circle on your calendar, is the 26th of September. It’s still a week and a half out, so hold it loosely, but the models are whispering something special. We’ve got an 8 ft swell from the West-Southwest, a period of 14 seconds, and the wind is going to be light offshore from the East-Northeast in the morning, going glassy. The wave energy is 3895. "Excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers" – that’s exactly what the data says. That morning session is going to have clean, lined-up waves with minimal crowd for the early birds. The afternoon holds with a light cross-offshore breeze, so you’ll get a good day’s paddle in.
A quick heads up for the 27th of September. The swell is back up to 10 ft from the West-Southwest with a very long 18 second period, and offshore winds again. That's another big, freight-train groundswell day. If you are a competent charger on a step-up, that Sunday morning could be the highlight of the entire run. It’s a monster, so only for the brave.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Mon morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun morning, min 12°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Sat afternoon, light winds from the SW by Mon night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Thu night. Very mild (max 17°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Sat 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
5730 | 10265 | 10400 | 9507 | 6947 | 5268 | 4530 | 3192 | 2356 | 2265 | 1470 | 933 | 572 | 555 | 980 | 2182 | 1471 | 4593 | 4474 | 4467 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross | glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | glassy |
High Tide | 11:00PM3.31m | 11:21AM3.22m | 11:36PM3.25m | 11:56AM3.14m | 00:10AM3.12m | 12:30PM3.02m | 00:41AM2.96m | 1:03PM2.86m | 1:13AM2.75m | 1:37PM2.68m | 1:46AM2.53m | 2:17PM2.49m | 2:31AM2.32m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:55PM0.14m | 5:17AM0.08m | 5:32PM0.21m | 5:54AM0.17m | 6:09PM0.33m | 6:28AM0.31m | 6:43PM0.50m | 7:02AM0.49m | 7:17PM0.68m | 7:35AM0.67m | 7:53PM0.87m | 8:10AM0.86m | 8:36PM1.05m | |||||||
— | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | |
6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:14 | — | — | 6:14 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 7 | 3 | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 6 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 16 | — | — | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
5730 | 10265 | — | — | 6947 | 5268 | 4530 | 3192 | 2356 | 2265 | 1470 | 933 | 572 | 555 | 980 | 2182 | 1471 | 4593 | 4474 | 4467 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | SW 6 | WSW 18 | WSW 15 | — | W 7 | — | WNW 7 | NW 8 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 32 | 31 | 403 | — | 161 | — | 21 | 22 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 10 | — | SW 16 | SW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 6 | NNW 4 | — | — | — | SSW 4 | — |
2355 | — | 10400 | 9507 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 38 | 13 | — | — | — | 15 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 123 | 90 | 90 | 144 | 147 | 147 | 144 | 6 | 95 | 172 | 236 | 172 | 335 | 127 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 6 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Auckland | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










