Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The 16-day window ahead of us kicks off with a bit of a slow start, but don’t get discouraged – there’s some real quality hiding in the back half of the outlook.

Karekare is the only spot on the table, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The first few days are pretty ordinary. Saturday the 8th is small – 2ft from the WSW – and the wind is cross-off, so it’s not terrible, but the energy is weak (192). The water is 57°, which is just a touch cooler than average for this time of year, but nothing wild. Sunday the 9th morning sees a jump to 8ft from the WNW, but the period is short (10 seconds) and the wind is cross, so it’s messy. The real standout on Sunday is the afternoon: the swell drops to 5ft from the WSW, period bumps to 15 seconds, and the wind goes glassy. That’s the kind of clean, long-period groundswell that makes Karekare look good. The energy is strong (1662), and it’s excellent for experienced surfers.

Monday the 10th through Wednesday the 12th are mostly forgettable – onshore winds, smaller swell, and increasing wind speeds. The energy dips into the moderate range. Not worth getting excited about.

Thursday the 13th morning is clean again with a 3ft WSW swell and cross-off NE wind, but it’s not a standout. The real hitter comes on Friday the 14th morning: 8ft from the WNW, glassy conditions, and the energy is huge (2302). That’s a proper session for experienced surfers. But by afternoon, the swell jumps to 10ft and the wind swings cross-on, and at that size, it’s too big for this break – more of a kite show than a paddle session.

From Saturday the 15th all the way through Tuesday the 18th, it’s a long stretch of big, messy, cross-on swell. Waves are 8ft to 15ft, but the wind is howling from the SW, and the energy is extreme (over 5000 at times). The best thing I can say is that it’s not surfable for paddle boards. This is a solid week of no-go.

Then, we hit the gold. Wednesday the 19th morning: 8ft from the SW, 13-second period, and clean cross-off wind from the NE. The energy is strong (2210). That’s excellent for experienced surfers. Thursday the 20th afternoon is the true standout of the whole outlook: 8ft from the SW, 15-second period, glassy conditions with a light S wind, and the energy is massive (4426). That’s the kind of day you call in sick for.

Friday the 21st keeps it going with 7ft from the SW, clean offshore E wind, and strong energy (2092). Saturday the 22nd morning is glassy again with 5ft from the SW and 14-second period – beautiful, clean groundswell.

Sunday the 23rd finishes the run with a smaller 3ft WSW swell, glassy, and moderate energy (726). A nice, mellow end to the window.

So, the best on offer? That’s the Thursday the 20th afternoon session – 8ft SW groundswell with glassy wind and monster energy. The Friday the 14th morning is a close second, but it’s a bit shorter period. The long gap of no-good surf from the 15th to the 18th is a real bummer, but the last few days make up for it.

Rusty.

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