
Surf Forecasts:
Karekare surf forecast from 22 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 25 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 23ft (7.0m), 14s period, WSW swell with cross-onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 25 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 21ft (6.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 18,164 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 25 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 23ft (7.0m), 14s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:
The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 25) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 7.0m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-onshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 6.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 25) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 26) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3PM (Sat 25th Jul) | 23ft (7.0m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Sat 25th Jul) | 23ft (7.0m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Sat 25th Jul) | 21ft (6.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here, and we’ve got a pretty wild 16-day run ahead for Karekare. This joint is an exposed West Coast Auckland beach, and it’s all about the SW swell. The water’s sitting at 58°F right now, which is about average for this time of year – nothing to write home about on the temp front.
Straight up, the first few days are a write-off. The whole Wednesday afternoon on the 22nd is a mess: 3ft of SW swell, but with a 20 km/h cross-on wind and only 12-second period, it’s just choppy garbage. The combined energy is weak (555), so don’t even bother.
The first real standout is Thursday morning, July 23rd. It’s glassy – absolutely glassy – with a 5ft SW groundswell running at 14 seconds. The combined energy is strong (1037), and the wind is a dead calm 5 km/h. This is excellent for experienced surfers. The water’s still about average temp, but that clean face will be worth it. If you’re a confident intermediate, this is your window.
After that, things go downhill fast. Friday the 24th is messy with cross-shore wind, and by Saturday the 25th, we’re looking at a massive 16ft to 21ft SW swell with 45 km/h cross-on winds – that’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing. The combined energy hits 4860 then 13152 – those are huge numbers. Stay out of the water.
Sunday the 26th through Tuesday the 6th of August is a long stretch of the swell being too big for the break. Even though conditions look clean at times – like Sunday morning with a 13ft, 16-second groundswell and light offshore wind – the size is 13ft or more. That’s expert-only, and even then, it’s pushing it. The combined energy on Sunday morning is 7028, which is just insane. The sets will be long and powerful, but at Karekare, a beach break, that long-period groundswell will close out and fold straight.
The second week has a flicker of hope. On Wednesday, August 5th, we’ve got a 8ft SW swell with a 10 km/h cross-offshore wind and a 12-second period in the morning. The combined energy is 2305 – strong but manageable. That afternoon, it drops to 7ft with glassy conditions and 11-second period. Both are marked as excellent for experienced surfers. This is your best bet in the second week, but it’s a week and a half out, so keep an eye on it.
Thursday the 6th also looks clean with cross-offshore winds, but the swell is a touch smaller at 6ft to 6ft, and the combined energy is lower (1198 to 1014). Still, clean waves are clean waves, so it’s worth a look.
The rest of the run is a mix of poor surf, marginal conditions, or just too damn big. The 16th day, Tuesday August 4th, has a 13ft swell with 18-second period – that’s a very long-period groundswell and combined energy of 9298. It’s too big for Karekare and will be a straight-shooting mess.
Overall, if you’re keen, you’re looking at Thursday morning the 23rd of July as the pick of the bunch. Get it while it’s glassy. The second week’s best is Wednesday August 5th, but it’s a long way off and forecasts can change. Hang loose.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 24mm), heaviest during Fri afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed night, min 11°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the SW on Thu morning, strong winds from the WSW by Sat morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 37mm), heaviest during Sun morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat night, min 8°C on Sun night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | NW 7 | W 9 | WSW 10 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 11 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
205 | 975 | 1308 | 983 | 488 | 489 | 1380 | 5660 | 17194 | 11893 | 6938 | 5821 | 4333 | 3139 | 2717 | 1099 | 500 | 429 | 785 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross |
High Tide | 4:19AM2.55m | 4:55PM2.53m | 5:21AM2.43m | 6:00PM2.49m | 6:28AM2.39m | 7:06PM2.53m | 7:31AM2.44m | 8:02PM2.62m | 8:23AM2.54m | 8:48PM2.74m | 9:07AM2.66m | 9:29PM2.86m | |||||||
Low Tide | 10:18PM0.97m | 10:47AM0.96m | 11:19PM1.07m | 11:46AM1.04m | 00:25AM1.10m | 12:48PM1.05m | 1:30AM1.06m | 1:49PM1.00m | 2:27AM0.96m | 2:41PM0.89m | 3:12AM0.83m | 3:25PM0.77m | |||||||
— | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | |
mm | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 4 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 19 | 4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | 2 |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
Feels °C | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 7 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 18 | — | — | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 8 | WSW 8 | SW 11 |
143 | 975 | 1308 | 983 | 488 | 336 | 126 | — | — | 11893 | 6938 | 5821 | 4333 | 3139 | 2717 | 1099 | 424 | 257 | 785 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 6 | — | — | — | W 22 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 16 |
205 | 62 | — | — | — | 9 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 500 | 429 | 26 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | SW 17 | WSW 16 |
121 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13 | 11 | 25 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | NW 5 | NW 7 | W 9 | WSW 10 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | — | — | SSW 7 | — | SW 5 | SW 7 | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | 58 | 489 | 1380 | 5660 | 17194 | 10719 | — | — | 187 | — | 94 | 440 | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 236 | 95 | 0 | 236 | 308 | 127 | 319 | 83 | 127 | 337 | 49 | 6 | 6 | 48 | 6 | 86 | 49 | 49 | 77 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Auckland | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










