Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Karekare over the next couple of weeks.

First off, I gotta be straight with you – the outlook for Karekare is a real mixed bag, and honestly, a bit of a heartbreaker. The water temp is sitting at 57.4°F, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The problem is, for the first week and a half, we’re dealing with a whole lot of swell that’s just too big and messy. Starting Sunday the 30th, we’ve got a solid 9.8ft SW swell, but it’s a short period of 8 seconds and a fresh cross-onshore breeze is making it lumpy. The combined energy is moderate (2101), but the conditions are poor. The swell just keeps building through the start of September, hitting 16.4ft by Tuesday morning with a long 14-second period, but the wind is still cross-on and the energy is very strong (9315). It’s just too big and blown out for a good paddle.

There’s a glimmer of hope on Friday the 4th of September afternoon. The wind swings to a light onshore, and the swell drops to 9.8ft, but the model calls it too big for the break. This pattern repeats itself through the weekend and into the next week. We get some glassy mornings and light breezes, like on Saturday the 5th with an 11.5ft to 13.1ft SW groundswell (period 14-15 seconds) and a light onshore, but again, the size is just too much for Karekare to handle well. The energy is strong (5413 to 7446).

The real tease comes on Monday the 14th of September. The swell is still a solid 13.1ft, but the wind turns cross-shore and light, and the period is a very long 16 seconds. The water temp anomaly is normal. It’s the cleanest looking window in the whole forecast, with gentle cross-shore conditions and a "wind and tide favorable" note. But again, the size is the sticking point. For a spot like Karekare, 13.1ft groundswell is pushing it into expert-only territory, if it’s even rideable at all. The energy is very strong (7852).

So, what’s the pick of the litter? If you’re an expert looking for a big, clean wave, keep a close eye on the Karekare morning of Monday the 14th. The 13.1ft SW swell (16 sec period) with light cross-shore wind is the best you’re going to get in this entire 16-day window. It’s not a day for the faint of heart, but for those with the skills, it might just be a wild, uncrowded session. The crowds are listed as "sometimes", so you might have it mostly to yourself.

For the rest of the period, it’s a tough watch. The waves are either too big, too onshore, or both. This setup actually looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, especially on the days with strong cross-onshore winds and big swell, like the 6th of September afternoon with a near gale.

The long-range stuff in the second week is a bit of a gamble. The promising Monday the 14th is a long way out, so take it with a grain of salt. Forecasts change.

Stay safe out there.

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