Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming our way for the next couple of weeks.

We’re looking at a mixed bag at Karekare. The water temp is sitting at 58°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The beginning of the outlook is a bit of a write-off, with the first few days suffering from strong, funky winds and lumpy conditions. You’ll be waiting a while before things clean up.

Sunday, August 2nd kicks off with a 7ft SW swell, but it’s crossed up by a 12 mph SSE wind. It’s rideable, but only just, and the energy is moderate (1271). Not the day to get excited about. The rest of that week is a real struggle – Monday through Wednesday sees onshore winds and messy, choppy surf with poor quality. You’d be mad to paddle out on Wednesday the 5th, even with an 8ft SW swell, as the wind is howling.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Thursday, August 6th. The morning session looks clean with a light 6 mph SE cross-offshore breeze and a clean 5ft SW swell (596). It’s not huge, but the ocean will look smooth. Friday and Saturday drop right off in size, down to tiny 2ft to 2ft dribblers.

Now, the standout window is shaping up for the second week. Sunday, August 9th is when it gets interesting. We’ve got a solid 4ft WSW groundswell (1537) with a long 19-second period and a perfect 9 mph NNE cross-offshore wind. This is quality stuff, especially for a point or reef setup – the long period will make for some proper lines, but at a beach break it might jack up and close out a bit. For the experienced surfer, this is the one.

Monday, August 10th is a close second, with 5ft of WSW swell (1615) and absolutely glassy conditions – 0 mph wind. That’s the kind of morning you dream about. The swell period is a punchy 16 seconds, so those walls should be solid. The next few days stay fun, with clean conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday. But keep an eye on Wednesday, August 12th – that afternoon swell is forecast to hit 10ft (4531). That’s big and powerful. The wind is favorable, but that’s expert-only territory.

Come Saturday, August 15th, we get another excellent morning session with a 7ft WSW swell and gentle offshore winds. Clean, lined-up, and packing a punch. Then Sunday, August 16th is back to being too big at 10ft, and the following Monday looks like a total washout with stormy winds and huge, messy surf. This setup will be more interesting for the kite surfers than anyone on a paddle board.

The Pick: For the best balance of quality and size, circle Sunday, August 9th morning and Monday, August 10th morning on your calendar. The water will be clean, the swell is solid, and the energy is moderate. The bigger days later on are for the hardcore crew only.

Rusty.

Read more