Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Karekare over the next couple of weeks.

First up, the water’s sitting at 58°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year – nothing out of the ordinary there.

The next two weeks start with a bit of a flat-ish patch, but the standouts are definitely gonna be later in the run. From Tuesday morning through to Thursday morning, the swell’s coming in around 6ft to 10ft from the WNW to WSW, but the wind is cross or cross-on, chopping things up, and the periods are short or just okay. It’s not really worth paddling out for – the first few days are mostly marginal, with a bit of a question mark over the tide.

Now, Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning (15th and 16th July) see the swell jump to 10ft from the WSW with a period of 16 seconds. That’s a solid groundswell, but look, that’s too much for Karekare – it’s a big, heavy beach break at that size, and the wind is onshore or cross-on. That’s expert territory, and even then, it’s gonna be a messy, blown-out affair. The combined energy is strong to very strong (5131 and 3803), but the quality’s just not there for a good paddle.

The real standout, the one you want to circle in your calendar, is Sunday 19th July. The morning session is a bit too big at 10ft – but by Sunday afternoon the swell drops to 8ft from the SW, period 16 seconds, and the wind goes offshore from the east at 9 mph. That’s clean, glassy conditions, and the combined energy is still solid (3808). For experienced surfers, this is the pick of the bunch. The break is fairly consistent, and crowds are only sometimes an issue, so you’ve got a decent chance of a quiet bank.

After that, Monday to Tuesday (20th–21st July) sees the swell drop to 5ft–7ft, still from the WSW, with offshore winds, but the wind picks up to 18 mph, which makes paddling out a bit of a chore. The wave energy falls to moderate (1667–879). It’s rideable, but not the best.

Then from Wednesday 22nd July onward, the swell drops right off – under 4ft, with periods around 12–14 seconds, but the wind is howling offshore at 18–25 mph. That’s strong offshore, which cleans the waves up, but it’s a real battle to get out there. The combined energy is weak (around 247–488). This stretch is only worth it for the hardcore.

But there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. Sunday 26th July – that’s a week away – looks promising again. Swell pulses back to 6ft from the SW, period 14 seconds, with a moderate offshore wind from the east at 12–15 mph. That’s clean, punchy surf, and the energy is moderate (1340–1572). Not a huge day, but for a Sunday morning paddle, it’s gonna be fun.

The very last days, 29th July, have a small 5ft–5ft SW swell with light offshore winds, energy around 848–939. It’s a gentle, clean little wave – good for a longboard or a relaxed session.

So, if you’re after the best, it’s Sunday afternoon 19th July for the bigger, cleaner groundswell. For a more manageable, clean day, Sunday 26th July is your backup.

Rusty.

Read more