Karekare Surf Break

Lat Long: 37.00° S 174.48° E

Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 pm 19 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Karekare sea temperature is
14.7° C
0.1° 

Karekare surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Karekare surf forecast from 19 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 26 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 14s period, SW swell with cross-onshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 26 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with 12,787 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 20 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:

The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.3m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 5.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 26) at 9AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 4s period and expected on Monday (Jul 20) at 6PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9AM (Mon 20th Jul)7.5ft (2.3m) 14s
Best Surf 3PM (Sun 26th Jul)18ft (5.5m) 14s
Most Powerful 9AM (Sun 26th Jul)18ft (5.5m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a solid run of swell headed our way, but it’s not a straight-up invite for everyone. This forecast is all about picking the right window, because the wind is going to be a real character for a lot of it.

The action kicks off this Monday, July 20th, with a decent pulse of SW groundswell at Karekare. The sets are going to be a solid 8ft (2155 combined energy), and with a light NNE breeze, the conditions are clean. This is good, solid stuff for experienced surfers – the period is 14 seconds, which means proper groundswell, so expect some nice lines but be ready for the lulls between sets. This is the best on offer right now, big and clean. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.

The swell holds through Tuesday morning, dropping slightly to 6ft (1161 combined energy) with a light SE wind keeping it clean. But by Tuesday afternoon, the wind swings SSW and goes cross-shore, making it a bit jumbled. Wednesday the 22nd is a write-off – the wind is onshore and choppy, and the swell drops. Take that day off.

Now, Thursday morning, July 23rd, is a little gem. The swell is 5ft (868 combined energy), but the wind is glass – dead calm from the NE. That’s a major positive. The waves will be clean and smooth. This is a standout for anyone who can get out there, especially if you’re looking for a more manageable size than Monday. The crowd factor says "sometimes," so you might have some company, but with conditions that good, it’s worth it.

After that, we’re looking at a big gap. From Thursday afternoon through the entire week, the wind is a problem. Friday the 24th gets messy, and then from Saturday the 25th through to the end of the month, the wind is a howling cross-onshore, and the swell gets huge. We’re talking 13ft, 18ft, even 20ft of swell (combined energy hitting 9216, 12787, 19262). That’s massive, and with the wind blowing like a gale (31 mph on the 26th), it’s just a washing machine. This is strictly for the experts, and even then, it’s blown out. For the average surfer, this setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The big swell continues into the first week of August, with waves over 18ft for days. The wind is still mostly cross-onshore, so it’s a messy, dangerous situation. There’s a brief period on the 4th of August (Tuesday morning) where the wind goes cross-off from the SSE, but the swell is still a massive 12ft (4141 combined energy). That’s still too big for most and only for the very experienced.

So, to sum it up: the best windows are Monday, July 20th for the biggest, cleanest sets, and Thursday morning, July 23rd for the glassy, more manageable conditions. After that, it’s a long stretch of large, windy, and messy surf until the 4th of August, where it might be big but a little cleaner for the hardcore crew.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Mon night. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue night, min 9°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Heavy rain (total 30mm), heaviest during Fri afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed night, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (calm on Thu morning, strong winds from the WSW by Fri night).

Monday
20
Tuesday
21
Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
4
4
4
4
4
3
1
0
0
0
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.5
SW
15
2.3
SW
14
2.1
WSW
14
1.9
WSW
14
1.8
SW
14
1.7
SW
13
1.6
SW
13
1.3
SW
12
1
SW
12
1.6
SW
7
1.4
SW
13
1.9
SW
13
1.9
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
12
2.2
WNW
7
2.1
WSW
9
3
WSW
14
4
WSW
16
4.5
WSW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2962
2155
1759
1310
1161
1011
828
486
282
240
721
1308
1144
488
461
704
3702
9216
10177
Wind (km/h)
5
W
10
NNE
10
E
20
E
10
SE
15
SSW
10
SSW
15
SW
25
SW
20
SW
5
NE
15
W
20
WNW
20
NNW
30
WNW
45
WSW
35
WSW
30
WNW
55
WSW
Wind State
glassy
cross-off
off
off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
on
on
cross
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
on
High Tide
1:57AM3.10m
2:21PM2.97m
2:40AM2.92m
3:07PM2.81m
3:25AM2.73m
3:57PM2.65m
4:19AM2.55m
4:55PM2.53m
5:21AM2.43m
6:00PM2.49m
6:28AM2.39m
7:06PM2.53m
Low Tide
8:17AM0.49m
8:36PM0.65m
9:03AM0.65m
9:24PM0.82m
9:52AM0.82m
10:18PM0.97m
10:47AM0.96m
11:19PM1.07m
11:46AM1.04m
00:25AM1.10m
12:48PM1.05m
1:30AM1.06m
rain showers
light rain
light rain
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
cloud
part cloud
rain showers
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
thunderstorm
rain showers
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:30
7:28
7:28
7:28
7:26
7:26
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:27
5:27
5:28
5:29
5:30
5:30
 mm
1
1
4
5
2
3
1
3
10
9
2
8
Temp °C
13
13
12
10
11
11
14
13
14
14
13
13
13
12
14
13
13
13
13
Feels °C
12
11
10
6
9
7
9
9
9
10
12
11
9
7
9
7
6
7
3
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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