Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a yarn about what’s coming our way at Karekare. It’s a bit of a slow burner, but there’s some real magic on the horizon if you’re patient.

First up, the water temp is sitting at a fairly average 59°, nothing unusual for this time of year. The early part of the week is a write-off, so don’t bother paddling out until late Friday. The next few days are a mix of lumpy cross-chop and building, unruly swell. There’s a big, strong 15ft, 16-second groundswell on Thursday, but it’s accompanied by a stiff 22 mph cross-shore wind that’s going to turn the ocean into a washing machine. Combined wave energy is a massive 9126, which tells you it’s powerful, but it’s just ugly.

Things start to get interesting on Friday afternoon, 10 July. We’ve got a solid 10ft swell from the SW, with a 17-second period, which is proper long-period groundswell. The wind drops right off to a gentle 9 mph cross-shore, but here’s the catch – the swell is predicted to be too big for this break, making it likely a choppy mess on the sets.

The real standout arrives on Saturday, 11 July. Saturday morning is clean, with an ESE breeze at 6 mph making for tidy, cross-off conditions. The swell is a runner-up 7ft from the SW, period 15 seconds, and the energy is still noticeable at 2528. By Saturday afternoon, it goes glassy. Dead flat wind. Zero ripple. We’re looking at a beautiful 6ft SW groundswell, clean as a whistle. This is the sweet spot – excellent conditions for experienced surfers.

Sunday, 12 July, is nearly as good. Morning is clean, 7ft from the WSW, 16-second period, and light cross-off winds. Afternoon goes glassy again with a 7ft WSW swell. It’s the best, most consistent run of the whole forecast. Crowds are listed as sometimes at Karekare, so on these absolute pearlers, expect a few other locals to have the same idea.

After that, the surf backs off through the second week. There’s a fun, but inconsistent window around Wednesday 15 July morning with a small 5ft, 21-second super-long period groundswell, but it’s light cross-shore wind, so not perfect. The next standout is further out: on Tuesday morning, 21 July, we see a 10ft SSE windswell with short 7-second period, but with moderate offshore winds. It’ll be big and clean, but short-period swells like that can be bumpy at beach breaks. Then on Wednesday morning, 22 July, a huge 21ft SW groundswell rolls in with an offshore breeze, but that’s well into the too-big territory – don’t even think about it unless you’re on a gun and know what you’re doing.

So, the short version: this Saturday and Sunday are the only real standouts. Get on it while the getting’s good.

Rusty.

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