Karekare Surf Break

Lat Long: 37.00° S 174.48° E

Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 pm 30 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Karekare sea temperature is
14.1°C
0.0° 

Karekare surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Karekare surf forecast from 30 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 2 Sep, 6AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with onshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 7 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 16s period, W swell with 11,495 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 2 Sep, 6AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period with WSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:

The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 02) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.5m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be onshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 5.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 07) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 6s period and expected on Friday (Sep 04) at 9AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 6AM (Wed 2nd Sep)11ft (3.5m) 14s
Best Surf 6AM (Wed 2nd Sep)11ft (3.5m) 14s
Most Powerful12AM (Mon 7th Sep)16ft (5.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here, let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Karekare over the next couple of weeks.

First off, I gotta be straight with you – the outlook for Karekare is a real mixed bag, and honestly, a bit of a heartbreaker. The water temp is sitting at 57.4°F, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The problem is, for the first week and a half, we’re dealing with a whole lot of swell that’s just too big and messy. Starting Sunday the 30th, we’ve got a solid 9.8ft SW swell, but it’s a short period of 8 seconds and a fresh cross-onshore breeze is making it lumpy. The combined energy is moderate (2101), but the conditions are poor. The swell just keeps building through the start of September, hitting 16.4ft by Tuesday morning with a long 14-second period, but the wind is still cross-on and the energy is very strong (9315). It’s just too big and blown out for a good paddle.

There’s a glimmer of hope on Friday the 4th of September afternoon. The wind swings to a light onshore, and the swell drops to 9.8ft, but the model calls it too big for the break. This pattern repeats itself through the weekend and into the next week. We get some glassy mornings and light breezes, like on Saturday the 5th with an 11.5ft to 13.1ft SW groundswell (period 14-15 seconds) and a light onshore, but again, the size is just too much for Karekare to handle well. The energy is strong (5413 to 7446).

The real tease comes on Monday the 14th of September. The swell is still a solid 13.1ft, but the wind turns cross-shore and light, and the period is a very long 16 seconds. The water temp anomaly is normal. It’s the cleanest looking window in the whole forecast, with gentle cross-shore conditions and a "wind and tide favorable" note. But again, the size is the sticking point. For a spot like Karekare, 13.1ft groundswell is pushing it into expert-only territory, if it’s even rideable at all. The energy is very strong (7852).

So, what’s the pick of the litter? If you’re an expert looking for a big, clean wave, keep a close eye on the Karekare morning of Monday the 14th. The 13.1ft SW swell (16 sec period) with light cross-shore wind is the best you’re going to get in this entire 16-day window. It’s not a day for the faint of heart, but for those with the skills, it might just be a wild, uncrowded session. The crowds are listed as "sometimes", so you might have it mostly to yourself.

For the rest of the period, it’s a tough watch. The waves are either too big, too onshore, or both. This setup actually looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, especially on the days with strong cross-onshore winds and big swell, like the 6th of September afternoon with a near gale.

The long-range stuff in the second week is a bit of a gamble. The promising Monday the 14th is a long way out, so take it with a grain of salt. Forecasts change.

Stay safe out there.

Short Range Forecast

Some drizzle, heaviest during Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun night, min 13°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Mon night, moderate winds from the W by Tue night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri morning, min 13°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Fri morning, calm by Sat afternoon).

Monday
31
Tuesday
1
Wednesday
2
Thursday
3
Friday
4
Saturday
5
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
4
WSW
10
4.5
WSW
13
4.5
WSW
14
5
WSW
14
5
SW
14
4.5
SW
14
4
WSW
14
3
WSW
14
3
WSW
13
2.5
WSW
13
2.5
WSW
14
2.2
WSW
12
2.3
W
11
3
WSW
14
3.5
W
10
3.5
WSW
15
3
WSW
15
3.5
WSW
15
3.5
WSW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2815
6545
8645
9126
9831
8471
5711
3638
2993
2535
2460
1338
1201
3429
2738
4435
4117
5371
6422
Wind (km/h)
35
WSW
35
WSW
40
WSW
35
WSW
40
SW
30
SW
25
WSW
25
WSW
25
W
20
WNW
25
NW
30
NW
30
NW
35
NW
25
W
20
WSW
15
WSW
10
WSW
10
N
Wind State
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross
High Tide
11:36PM3.14m
11:58AM3.02m
00:13AM3.08m
12:37PM2.97m
00:52AM2.98m
1:17PM2.88m
1:32AM2.84m
2:02PM2.77m
2:20AM2.68m
2:58PM2.66m
3:23AM2.52m
4:09PM2.58m
Low Tide
5:54AM0.21m
6:10PM0.30m
6:32AM0.25m
6:51PM0.39m
7:12AM0.34m
7:34PM0.51m
7:56AM0.46m
8:23PM0.65m
8:47AM0.59m
9:21PM0.79m
9:48AM0.71m
10:33PM0.87m
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:45
6:43
6:41
6:39
6:39
6:37
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:00
6:00
6:01
6:01
6:02
6:04
 mm
1
1
5
1
Temp °C
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
14
14
14
15
15
14
16
16
14
14
14
12
Feels °C
7
7
7
5
5
6
8
9
9
10
11
10
10
11
12
11
12
12
10
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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