Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Karekare's got cookin' for us over the next couple of weeks.

Alright mate, the first couple of days are a bit of a write-off, honestly. Swell's there but the wind's been messin' it up. Tuesday the 15th has a 8ft SW swell with a 14 second period, but that cross-on SW breeze at 6 mph is making it choppy and messy. The combined energy is a pretty solid 2356 (moderate) but the quality just isn't there for a good paddle. Water temps are about average for this time of year, nothing wild.

The whole first week, right through to the 22nd, is a real struggle. We get a massive spike in size—we're talkin' 13ft to 20ft SW and WSW swells from the 18th through the 22nd—but the wind is howlin' from the SSW and WSW at 22 to 28 mph, mostly cross-onshore. The combined energy hits some huge numbers, like 10767 on Friday the 18th morning and even 29598 on Wednesday the 23rd afternoon, but it's just too messy and dangerous. The surf quality is poor, and honestly, with that size and wind, a spot like Karekare looks more like a kite surfer's playground than a paddle boarder's.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Friday the 25th morning shows some hope. The swell drops to 8ft from the SW, 14 second period, and the wind swings to a light S at 9 mph, coming cross-shore. The combined energy is still a decent 3009 (moderate), and we get a score of 4 out of 10. It's still marginal, but those gentle cross-shore conditions will clean it up a fair bit compared to the junk we've been having. This is your best bet in the first week and a half.

But the real standout is the Saturday the 26th morning. We're talkin' a 7ft SW swell with a 13 second period, and the wind is glass—absolutely dead calm from the N at 3 mph. The report says "glassy" conditions for "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." The combined energy is 2015 (moderate). That's the session right there. That 7ft is a solid size for an intermediate, and with no wind, it'll be silky clean. It's a bit big for beginners at over 5ft, but for everyone else, it's a gem.

Gotta warn you though—after that glassy morning, the wind picks up on the 26th afternoon and stays onshore or cross-onshore for the rest of the run, through to the 30th. There's a promising long period bump on Monday the 28th morning with a 6ft WSW swell and a 20 second period (very long groundswell), but it's with a WNW onshore wind, so it'll be lumpy. The 28th afternoon and the 29th and 30th all have 10ft+ SW swells that the forecast says are too big for the break, even if the wind is lighter. So don't get too excited about those.

So to sum it up: don't bother paddling out until Friday the 25th. Your one true standout is that glassy Saturday morning the 26th. Get out there early.

Rusty.

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