Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Rusty here.

First up, this is a 16-day outlook for Karekare. The first real surf worth talking about kicks off Sunday, July 20th. Before that, we’ve got a rough stretch from Friday the 17th through Saturday the 19th – that’s three days of messy, cross-onshore wind and swell that’s either too big for the break or just plain ugly. Not worth paddling out for.

So, Sunday the 20th morning – that’s where we start to see a turnaround. The wind switches to a light offshore from the ENE at 6 mph, and the swell drops to a clean 8 ft from the WSW with a solid 14-second period. The water temp is about 58°, which is pretty average for the time of year, nothing unusual. This is a proper groundswell – long period, good energy, and with that offshore breeze, the waves will be holding up nicely. It’s a bit on the bigger side for beginners, but for experienced surfers, this is the standout morning of the whole forecast. The afternoon holds up too, with a light cross-off breeze and 7 ft swell.

Then Monday the 21st morning keeps it going – offshore wind from the E at 6 mph, 6 ft swell from the SW, period at 13 seconds. Clean again. The energy is moderate, but it’s a fun, manageable size for intermediate surfers. The session will be quiet, and the crowds are only sometimes an issue here, so you might have it fairly open.

After that, things start to fade. From Tuesday the 22nd through to the end of the month, it’s a long stretch of marginal conditions. The wind swings onshore or cross-onshore, the swell drops, and the quality just isn’t there. There are a few days where the swell is too big again (like the 25th with a 16 ft monster and 28 mph wind – that’s a full-on storm, not surfable), and other days where it’s just small and choppy. That’s a solid 8 or 9 days of nothing great.

But hold on – there’s a gem late in the window. Wednesday the 29th afternoon. The wind goes glassy, dead calm, with a 7 ft swell from the WSW, 13-second period, and good energy. That’s going to be clean, smooth, and lined up. For experienced surfers, this is the other real standout. It’s a long way out, but the conditions line up beautifully.

The very end of the window, Saturday the 1st of August, is a bit of a letdown – small swell and onshore wind, nothing to get excited about.

Overall, if you’re looking to paddle out, Sunday the 20th and Wednesday the 29th are your best shots. The rest is either waiting or walking.

Rusty.

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