Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a solid run of swell headed our way, but it’s not a straight-up invite for everyone. This forecast is all about picking the right window, because the wind is going to be a real character for a lot of it.

The action kicks off this Monday, July 20th, with a decent pulse of SW groundswell at Karekare. The sets are going to be a solid 8ft (2155 combined energy), and with a light NNE breeze, the conditions are clean. This is good, solid stuff for experienced surfers – the period is 14 seconds, which means proper groundswell, so expect some nice lines but be ready for the lulls between sets. This is the best on offer right now, big and clean. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.

The swell holds through Tuesday morning, dropping slightly to 6ft (1161 combined energy) with a light SE wind keeping it clean. But by Tuesday afternoon, the wind swings SSW and goes cross-shore, making it a bit jumbled. Wednesday the 22nd is a write-off – the wind is onshore and choppy, and the swell drops. Take that day off.

Now, Thursday morning, July 23rd, is a little gem. The swell is 5ft (868 combined energy), but the wind is glass – dead calm from the NE. That’s a major positive. The waves will be clean and smooth. This is a standout for anyone who can get out there, especially if you’re looking for a more manageable size than Monday. The crowd factor says "sometimes," so you might have some company, but with conditions that good, it’s worth it.

After that, we’re looking at a big gap. From Thursday afternoon through the entire week, the wind is a problem. Friday the 24th gets messy, and then from Saturday the 25th through to the end of the month, the wind is a howling cross-onshore, and the swell gets huge. We’re talking 13ft, 18ft, even 20ft of swell (combined energy hitting 9216, 12787, 19262). That’s massive, and with the wind blowing like a gale (31 mph on the 26th), it’s just a washing machine. This is strictly for the experts, and even then, it’s blown out. For the average surfer, this setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The big swell continues into the first week of August, with waves over 18ft for days. The wind is still mostly cross-onshore, so it’s a messy, dangerous situation. There’s a brief period on the 4th of August (Tuesday morning) where the wind goes cross-off from the SSE, but the swell is still a massive 12ft (4141 combined energy). That’s still too big for most and only for the very experienced.

So, to sum it up: the best windows are Monday, July 20th for the biggest, cleanest sets, and Thursday morning, July 23rd for the glassy, more manageable conditions. After that, it’s a long stretch of large, windy, and messy surf until the 4th of August, where it might be big but a little cleaner for the hardcore crew.

Rusty.

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