Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Karekare over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a pulse of serious size coming through, but it’s not for the faint-hearted. The first couple of days offer a lot of raw power, but you’ll need to be sharp to handle it. Monday the 6th kicks off with a 8ft swell from the WSW, but it’s a cross-off breeze and the water’s sitting at 59°, which is pretty much average for this time of year. The energy is huge (3889), but it’s a messy, marginal outlook. The real standout is forecast for Tuesday the 7th, with a 10ft SW groundswell, a long 16-second period, and clean offshore east winds all day. The water’s a bit cooler than average, but that’s not the story – this is a big, clean, powerful swell. The combined energy is massive (5027), and it’s glassy offshore. That said, at 10ft, this is expert-only territory, and the consistent offshore will make it look amazing, but it’s a real handful. Karekare (Auckland) is an exposed beach, so that long period will make it a bit walled-up, but the wind is the key. It’s the best on offer.

Wednesday the 8th gets messy with strong cross-onshore winds and a deteriorating swell, so skip it. Thursday the 9th has another huge 10ft SW swell, but the wind is lighter and cross-off, so it’s still clean, but again, it’s too big for most. The energy is enormous (3307). Friday the 10th sees a 7ft WSW groundswell, but the wind is a fresh 30 km/h cross-off, making it a bit of a battle. The energy is still high (5194), but the wind is a factor.

By Saturday the 11th, the swell drops to a more manageable 6ft from the SW, with a light offshore east wind. The period is 15 seconds, so there’s still plenty of push. The combined energy is 1917, and it’s clean. This is a solid day for experienced surfers, and the water is still cool. Sunday the 12th is even more promising: 7ft SW swell, 16 seconds, and a light offshore again. The energy is 2305, and it’s clean. The wind is glassy. That’s a really good day, and the crowds are only sometimes there, so you might get some space.

We then hit a gap. From Monday the 13th onward, the swell drops away. Monday the 13th has a 5ft WSW swell, but the energy is low (1057), and the wind is cross-off. It’s clean but small. Tuesday the 14th is a write-off with a tiny 3ft swell and strong onshore winds. Wednesday the 15th sees a 8ft WNW windswell with a short 10-second period, onshore wind, and a messy cross-chop – not worth it. Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th are marginal, with 7ft and 6ft swells, but the winds are light and the conditions are so-so. The energy is moderate.

Saturday the 18th sees a big return of size: 10ft WSW groundswell, 16 seconds, and offshore east winds. The energy is huge (4894), and it’s clean. But again, it’s too big for most, and the wind is strong. Sunday the 19th is even bigger, with 13ft swells and strong offshore winds – that’s a serious session for experts only. Monday the 20th is a mixed bag with a 7ft swell but a near gale cross-off wind in the morning, then a glassy 8ft swell in the afternoon – that afternoon window is excellent for experienced surfers, and the energy is massive (4203). Tuesday the 21st is a write-off with strong cross-onshore winds.

So, the standout here is Tuesday the 7th, with its clean, offshore east wind, big 10ft groundswell, and that long 16-second period. It’s expert-only, but it’s the best of the bunch. The second best is Sunday the 12th, with a bit less size and a glassy offshore wind – that’s a proper session for the crew. There’s a noticeable gap in quality from the 13th to the 17th, where the swell is small or messy. The promising stuff in the second week (the 18th to 20th) is big and clean, but it’s for the brave.

Rusty.

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