Karekare Surf Break

Lat Long: 37.00° S 174.48° E

Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 am 09 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Karekare sea temperature is
15.0° C
0.0° 

Karekare surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Karekare surf forecast from 8 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 9 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 13s period, SSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 13s period, SSW swell with 7,711 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 9 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 13s period with SSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:

The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 4.0m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 1.8m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 5.0m 13s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 11) at 3AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)12PM (Thu 9th Jul)13ft (4.0m) 13s
Best Surf12PM (Thu 9th Jul)13ft (4.0m) 13s
Most Powerful 6PM (Thu 9th Jul)16ft (5.0m) 13s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.


Alright, Rusty here. Let's get into it.

Right off the bat, we got a real problem. The first few days of this forecast are a no-go for most of us. The swell is way too big for Karekare. We're talking 13ft to 15ft of SW groundswell with a super long period of 16 seconds. That's pumping some serious energy into the bay. The cross-off wind is okay in theory, but when it's blowing 18 to 25 mph, it's just a mess. On Thursday, 9 July, it's a write-off for paddling. That's a lot of water moving around.

Friday the 10th isn't much better. The swell drops to 10ft, but that's still a heavy slab for an intermediate spot like Karekare, especially with a 17 to 18-second period making it dumpy. The cross-shore wind is only going to make it lumpy. This is a setup that looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Now, the good stuff. The standout window is the weekend. Saturday, 11 July, things start to turn. The swell drops to a more manageable 6ft from the WSW, with a 15-second period. The real hero is the wind: light offshore from the ESE at 6 mph. That's going to put a clean face on the waves. The energy is still healthy, so there's plenty of push. This is for experienced surfers only, but it's the best on offer.

Sunday, 12 July, is another solid one. Similar size, 7ft from the WSW, and that same light, clean cross-off breeze from the ENE. The energy is still up there. I'd be getting out there Saturday morning as the standout, but Sunday is a very close second.

Monday, 13 July, the swell starts to fade. The morning is still clean with a light cross-off and 5ft WSW swell, good for a more relaxed session. But the afternoon gets a bit sloppy as the wind swings onshore.

The water temp is sitting at 59°F, which is exactly average for this time of year. No surprises there.

The following week, from Tuesday the 14th through to the 24th, the forecast gets a bit messy for Karekare. There are some windows of clean, offshore winds from the East, particularly around the 19th and 20th, but the wind is howling at 25 to 31 mph. That's near gale force. It's clean offshore, but you won't be able to paddle out. The swell is smaller, around 4ft to 5ft, but the energy is low. It's a frustrating pattern.

The 16th of July has a promising morning with 8ft WSW swell and light cross-off winds, but it's a short-lived window before the afternoon gets blown out again.

The 23rd and 24th look like we're back to the big stuff, with 10ft to 12ft of swell and big energy. Too much for Karekare for a standard paddle session.

Overall, if you're looking for a window, the 11th and 12th of July are your best bet. Don't sleep on that Saturday morning.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Some drizzle, heaviest during Thu morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Thu morning, min 8°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the S on Thu afternoon, calm by Fri night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon morning, min 10°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light.

Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
!
!
!
!
!
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
1
0
1
2
3
3
2
4
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
4
SW
16
4.5
SSW
13
4
SSW
13
3
SW
18
3
SW
17
2.4
SW
16
1.9
WSW
15
1.7
SW
14
2.2
SW
16
2.2
SW
16
2
WSW
15
1.7
WSW
15
1.4
WSW
14
1.2
WSW
14
0.8
WSW
14
1.5
WNW
8
2
W
10
2.2
W
12
2.2
WSW
12
1.4
WSW
16
2.5
WSW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
7520
6487
5493
6177
5692
2839
1655
1203
2475
2291
1907
1279
785
508
232
298
725
1439
1272
1042
2982
Wind (km/h)
30
SSE
40
S
30
S
30
S
15
SSW
15
ESE
10
ESE
10
SE
5
ENE
10
ENE
10
NE
10
NE
15
NNE
15
NW
20
NNW
10
W
15
W
10
WNW
10
NW
10
WNW
10
NNW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross
High Tide
4:54PM2.70m
5:22AM2.72m
6:03PM2.77m
6:32AM2.78m
7:12PM2.89m
7:40AM2.88m
8:16PM3.04m
8:43AM2.99m
9:14PM3.17m
9:40AM3.11m
10:09PM3.28m
10:33AM3.19m
10:59PM3.34m
Low Tide
10:44AM0.74m
11:19PM0.81m
11:50AM0.71m
00:27AM0.75m
12:57PM0.65m
1:36AM0.65m
2:03PM0.57m
2:40AM0.53m
3:05PM0.47m
3:39AM0.40m
4:02PM0.37m
4:32AM0.29m
4:53PM0.30m
light rain
part cloud
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:31
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:19
5:20
5:21
5:21
5:22
5:22
5:22
 mm
1
2
1
Temp °C
12
12
11
11
11
10
11
12
10
12
14
12
15
15
14
14
15
14
15
15
14
Feels °C
6
3
3
4
7
8
7
9
7
9
11
9
12
12
12
12
13
13
13
14
13
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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