Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Karekare over the next couple of weeks.

Right now, it’s flat out rough and not worth getting wet. Saturday the 4th is a write-off with weak 2ft to 3ft SW swell, cross-off winds, and the wave energy is feeble (155). Honestly, it’s just a mess of poor conditions. Sunday the 5th isn’t much better – that 7ft WNW swell on Sunday morning might sound big, but the period is a short 9 seconds and it’s cross-on, so it’s lumpy and weak for the size. You’d be fighting a closeout. Don’t bother.

Now, things get interesting – and heavy – from Monday the 6th. We see a proper southwest groundswell building, with the period jumping to 13 seconds and the energy reading hitting a strong 3844. But here’s the catch: the swell is 10ft on Monday morning and climbing to 12ft by Monday afternoon. That’s expert territory, way too big for anyone but the most experienced crew. Same story Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday – constant 10ft to 12ft SW to WSW swell with long periods (13 to 17 seconds), and clean offshore or cross-off winds on a few of those windows. The energy readings are off the charts, 6506 (very strong) on Tuesday morning. But unless you’re charging heavy water at Karekare on a proper big-wave day, you’re gonna be sitting on the beach. The water temp anomaly is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.

We finally get a drop on Friday the 10th, but it’s still 5ft to 6ft WSW swell with 17-18 second periods and fresh cross-shore winds creating lumpy chop – not great.

The first real standout for skilled surfers comes Saturday the 11th morning. The swell drops to a manageable 6ft from the WSW, period a solid 16 seconds, and we’ve got gentle SSE winds keeping it clean. Energy is still strong (2205). This is excellent for experienced surfers. The crowd factor at Karekare is “sometimes,” so you might have a few out but nothing mental. Sunday the 12th morning is another cracker – 5ft WSW, 15-second period, light ESE cross-off winds, clean. That morning window is your best bet. The energy is moderate (1262).

Early the following week, Monday the 13th is a solid option for intermediate to experienced surfers: 5ft WSW swell with 14-second period, light offshore east wind, clean. Tuesday the 14th starts to drop back (3ft, 13 seconds), and from the 15th we fade into smaller, weaker swell until Thursday the 16th.

Now, Thursday the 16th morning is a major standout. The swell jumps back to a solid 8ft from the WSW, 15-second period, and we’ve got moderate ENE offshore winds keeping it clean. Energy is strong (3451). This is excellent for experienced surfers, but it’s still just under the “too big” threshold, so a few skilled chargers will have a blast. Crowds are possible, but the quality should make it worth the paddle.

After that, the 17th and 18th turn ugly again – big onshore slop, strong winds, and messy conditions. The final days drop off into poor, blown-out surf. So if you're looking for the pick, lock in Saturday the 11th morning or Sunday the 12th morning for clean, long-period groundswell, and keep an eye on Thursday the 16th morning for a bigger, more powerful session.

Rusty.

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