Surf Forecasts:
Karekare surf forecast from 17 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 19 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 18s period, SW swell with 6,461 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 18 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:
The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-onshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 3.5m 18s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 3s period and expected on Monday (Jul 20) at 9PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Sun 19th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a yarn about what’s coming down the pipe for Karekare.
Right off the bat, we’ve got a mess on our hands. The next few days are a write-off. A big, powerful, long-period SW groundswell is slamming into the coast, but it’s way too big and the wind is all wrong. We’re talking a solid 10-foot swell with a 15-second period pumping in, and the combined energy is massive (3873). The wind is a moderate cross-onshore breeze, making it choppy and unrideable. The swell hangs around this size for the weekend, so don’t even bother. It’s a genuine no-go.
The wait finally pays off on Monday, the 20th of July. That’s our standout window. The swell drops to a still-chunky 8 feet, but the wind swings offshore from the ENE. The result is clean, lined-up waves for experienced surfers. The energy is still strong (2313), but these conditions are about as good as it gets for a beach break this size. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so a 3/2 might be all you need if you’re tough.
Tuesday morning, the 21st, keeps the dream alive. The swell is down to 6 feet, the wind is offshore from the East, and the energy is moderate (1042). It’s clean as a whistle. This is the best it’s going to get for the intermediate crew, too.
After that, the quality drops. Wednesday sees a small, choppy cross-on swell, and then we get a run of moderate to strong winds and lumpy conditions that last for days. There’s a bit of a spike in swell on the 30th of July, hitting 10 feet with a very long 16-second period and glassy conditions, but the finder is clear that it’s just too big for this spot. It’s a painful tease.
The very end of the outlook, on the 1st and 2nd of August, shows another big swell pulse. Again, the size is massive (13 to 15 feet), making it a strictly expert-only zone if it were clean, but the wind is mostly cross-off or cross-on. The combined energy is through the roof (6904), but it’s a long-range signal and not reliable enough to get excited about.
So, to sum it up: the weekend is a complete washout. The only real window of quality is Monday the 20th through Tuesday the 21st of July. After that, we’re waiting on forecasts to change. It’s a dry spell, but it tends not to stay poor for long around here.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Sun night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun morning, min 11°C on Mon morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Thu morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed night, min 10°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 3979 | 3873 | 3477 | 6461 | 5522 | 4518 | 3297 | 2313 | 1824 | 1310 | 1042 | 946 | 746 | 496 | 325 | 209 | 711 | 932 | 1032 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | off | cross-off | off | off | cross | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on |
High Tide | 00:32AM3.32m | 12:55PM3.20m | 1:15AM3.23m | 1:38PM3.10m | 1:57AM3.10m | 2:21PM2.97m | 2:40AM2.92m | 3:07PM2.81m | 3:25AM2.73m | 3:57PM2.65m | 4:19AM2.55m | 4:55PM2.53m | |||||||
Low Tide | 6:50AM0.25m | 7:08PM0.37m | 7:34AM0.35m | 7:51PM0.50m | 8:17AM0.49m | 8:36PM0.65m | 9:03AM0.65m | 9:24PM0.82m | 9:52AM0.82m | 10:18PM0.97m | 10:47AM0.96m | 11:19PM1.07m | |||||||
 |  | |  |  | |  | | | |  | |  | | | |  | | | |
 | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 |
| kJ | 3979 | 3873 | 3477 | 6461 | 5522 | 4518 | 3297 | 2313 | 1824 | 1310 | 1042 | 946 | 746 | 496 | 325 | 209 | 711 | 932 | 1032 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 22 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | — | — | — | WSW 18 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 6 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | 166 | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | — | — | — | 31 | 66 | 102 | 121 | 38 | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SW 17 | — | — | — | — | — | NE 3 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 6 | — | SW 6 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | 5282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | 39 | — | 24 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 49 | 49 | 77 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 35 | 129 | 95 | 48 | 236 | 132 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Auckland | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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