Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and we’ve got a pretty wild 16-day run ahead for Karekare. This joint is an exposed West Coast Auckland beach, and it’s all about the SW swell. The water’s sitting at 58°F right now, which is about average for this time of year – nothing to write home about on the temp front.

Straight up, the first few days are a write-off. The whole Wednesday afternoon on the 22nd is a mess: 3ft of SW swell, but with a 20 km/h cross-on wind and only 12-second period, it’s just choppy garbage. The combined energy is weak (555), so don’t even bother.

The first real standout is Thursday morning, July 23rd. It’s glassy – absolutely glassy – with a 5ft SW groundswell running at 14 seconds. The combined energy is strong (1037), and the wind is a dead calm 5 km/h. This is excellent for experienced surfers. The water’s still about average temp, but that clean face will be worth it. If you’re a confident intermediate, this is your window.

After that, things go downhill fast. Friday the 24th is messy with cross-shore wind, and by Saturday the 25th, we’re looking at a massive 16ft to 21ft SW swell with 45 km/h cross-on winds – that’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing. The combined energy hits 4860 then 13152 – those are huge numbers. Stay out of the water.

Sunday the 26th through Tuesday the 6th of August is a long stretch of the swell being too big for the break. Even though conditions look clean at times – like Sunday morning with a 13ft, 16-second groundswell and light offshore wind – the size is 13ft or more. That’s expert-only, and even then, it’s pushing it. The combined energy on Sunday morning is 7028, which is just insane. The sets will be long and powerful, but at Karekare, a beach break, that long-period groundswell will close out and fold straight.

The second week has a flicker of hope. On Wednesday, August 5th, we’ve got a 8ft SW swell with a 10 km/h cross-offshore wind and a 12-second period in the morning. The combined energy is 2305 – strong but manageable. That afternoon, it drops to 7ft with glassy conditions and 11-second period. Both are marked as excellent for experienced surfers. This is your best bet in the second week, but it’s a week and a half out, so keep an eye on it.

Thursday the 6th also looks clean with cross-offshore winds, but the swell is a touch smaller at 6ft to 6ft, and the combined energy is lower (1198 to 1014). Still, clean waves are clean waves, so it’s worth a look.

The rest of the run is a mix of poor surf, marginal conditions, or just too damn big. The 16th day, Tuesday August 4th, has a 13ft swell with 18-second period – that’s a very long-period groundswell and combined energy of 9298. It’s too big for Karekare and will be a straight-shooting mess.

Overall, if you’re keen, you’re looking at Thursday morning the 23rd of July as the pick of the bunch. Get it while it’s glassy. The second week’s best is Wednesday August 5th, but it’s a long way off and forecasts can change. Hang loose.

Rusty

Read more