
Surf Forecasts:
Karekare surf forecast from 10 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 11 Sep, 6AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 19s period, SW swell with cross-onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 11 Sep, 12PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 15,114 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 11 Sep, 6AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 19s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:
The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 4.5m and 19s period with a secondary swell of 2.2m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be cross-onshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 4.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 12PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Fri 11th Sep) | 15ft (4.5m) 19s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Fri 11th Sep) | 15ft (4.5m) 19s |
| Most Powerful | 12PM (Fri 11th Sep) | 15ft (4.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s shaping up at Karekare – and I’ll be straight with ya, this is a tricky 16-day stretch. We’ve got a massive amount of ocean energy on the way, but the timing and the winds are gonna be the big story.
Right out of the gate, Thursday the 10th is a wash for us. We’ve got a 6 ft swell from the WSW, with a 12 mph cross-onshore wind. The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is about normal for this time of year – nothing wild there. The overall energy is strong, but that nasty wind is gonna make it a choppy mess.
The real buzz comes Friday the 11th, and that is our standout window. The swell is predicted to be a thumping 10 ft from the WSW with a very long period of 19 seconds. But listen – this is not the day for a learner. At 10 ft, that’s expert-only territory. The combined energy is massive, but for a beach break like Karekare, that long period groundswell can make it close out and race through. Still, if you’re a charger with a gun, the morning is looking favorable. The wind is a fresh cross-offshore from the south at 19 mph, which will keep the faces reasonably clean. The crowds here can be a factor, so get in early.
Saturday the 12th keeps pumping, but it gets gnarly. We’re looking at a 16 ft swell in the morning from the SW. That is monstrous. The energy reading is off the charts. This is absolutely experts only, and with a strong 25 mph cross-onshore, it’s going to be messy and dangerous. By the afternoon it drops to 12 ft, but still onshore. Not a good call for most of us.
We then roll through a whole week of poor surf conditions. Sunday the 13th through to Saturday the 19th of September is just a write-off. The winds stay onshore and howling, and the swell stays way oversized and lumpy. We’re seeing repeated daily values over 13 ft with strong breezes. Unless you’re a tow-in crew, stay home.
The energy finally starts to back off around Sunday the 21st, but the wind is still a problem. We get a couple of days of cleaner, smaller conditions on the 22nd and 23rd, with some WSW onshore wind and moderate breezes, but the surf is really marginal.
Then, we see a little light at the end of the tunnel. Thursday the 24th of September offers our second standout. It’s a much more manageable 5 ft from the SW, but the real win is the morning wind: dead glass – a full 0 mph from the SSE. The energy is moderate, but with that period of 13 seconds, the waves will have some shape. The water is still clean. If you can wait that long, this is the session for a mid-length or even a log. The winds are light on the 25th too, but the swell is a bit smaller and the direction is tricky.
So, overall: don’t bother paddling out for the next 10 days unless you’re an absolute pro looking for a beatdown. The only true standouts for the average surfer are the glassy morning on the 24th. For the chargers, dawn patrol on the 11th is the call, but know what you’re getting into.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Thu night. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Thu afternoon, strong winds from the SW by Fri night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed morning, min 13°C on Sun afternoon). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Mon night, fresh winds from the NW by Wed morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Thu 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 11 | WSW 16 | WSW 19 | SW 18 | WSW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 9 | WSW 10 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
792 | 1743 | 6390 | 12992 | 12918 | 13595 | 5730 | 10642 | 10273 | 9246 | 6947 | 5268 | 4141 | 3066 | 2250 | 2025 | 1408 | 465 | 815 | 1657 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 9:37PM3.23m | 10:00AM3.16m | 10:20PM3.31m | 10:42AM3.22m | 11:00PM3.31m | 11:21AM3.22m | 11:36PM3.25m | 11:56AM3.14m | 00:10AM3.12m | 12:30PM3.02m | 00:41AM2.96m | 1:03PM2.86m | 1:13AM2.75m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:31PM0.24m | 3:58AM0.12m | 4:14PM0.15m | 4:39AM0.06m | 4:55PM0.14m | 5:17AM0.08m | 5:32PM0.21m | 5:54AM0.17m | 6:09PM0.33m | 6:28AM0.31m | 6:43PM0.50m | 7:02AM0.49m | 7:17PM0.68m | |||||||
— | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | |
6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | |
mm | — | 9 | 2 | — | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 3 |
Temp °C | 14 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 12 |
Feels °C | 10 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 11 | WSW 16 | WSW 19 | SW 18 | — | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | — | — | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 9 | WSW 17 |
792 | 1743 | 6390 | 12992 | — | 3278 | 5730 | — | — | 9246 | 6947 | 5268 | 4141 | 3066 | 2250 | 2025 | 1408 | 465 | 815 | 195 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 17 | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 18 | — |
608 | 1567 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 32 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
259 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 7 | SW 8 | SW 10 | SW 18 | WSW 17 | SW 16 | SW 10 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 7 | NW 6 | WSW 10 |
2 | 843 | 2755 | 10586 | 12918 | 13595 | 2363 | 10642 | 10273 | 7856 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 326 | 348 | 1657 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 86 | 86 | 48 | 120 | 90 | 137 | 123 | 123 | 90 | 144 | 147 | 185 | 127 | 236 | 172 | 132 | 90 | 103 | 368 | 90 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Auckland | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










