Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks. To be honest, the first week is a bit of a write-off for a proper paddle session. The swell is just too big and the wind is messy. We’ve got some serious energy coming through, with combined swell energy readings of over 3800 (moderate to strong) on the 16th, but it’s all blown out or just too much for this spot.

Karekare is an exposed, fairly consistent intermediate break that lights up on a SW swell, which is what we’re getting. But the problem is the size. You’re looking at 10-foot waves on Thursday morning with a 16-second period (that’s a long-period groundswell) and a light offshore wind from the WNW. That sounds clean, but the wave comment says it’s too big for this break. Anything over 8 feet is expert-only, and here we are at 10 feet. The water temperature is sitting at 58°, which is about normal for this time of year.

Thursday afternoon drops to 8 feet, but the wind swings onshore and it’s “marginal.” Friday through Sunday is a write-off: 8 feet to 10 feet, cross-onshore winds, and conditions described as “poor” or “choppy.” The combined energy is still huge, hitting 5457 on Sunday morning, but it’s all for nothing with that wind.

There’s a gap of poor-to-marginal surf from the 20th through to the 25th. Swell sizes drop to 5 feet to 8 feet, but the wind is either cross-on or cross, and the wave comments are all “marginal” or “poor.” The 25th actually has a bit of a pulse on the 26th, with a 13-foot, 16-second swell from the SW, but the wind is a fresh 35 km/h cross-onshore. That’s just a mess. It’s more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddler right now.

Now, the real standout is right at the end of the forecast. Wednesday, the 29th, is where it gets interesting. Wednesday morning you’ve got a clean 4-foot wave from the WSW with a light cross-offshore breeze from the NE. The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” But Wednesday afternoon is the true gem. The wind goes glassy—zero wind, just a slight air—and the swell picks up to 5 feet with a 16-second period (very long groundswell). The combined energy is 1903 (moderate), and the wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s a genuine window for a clean, lined-up wave. This is a long-period swell, so it might break a bit straight at a beach break, but Karekare has enough character to handle it.

Thursday the 30th keeps it clean with NE winds, 5-foot waves, and 14-second periods. The wave comment again says “excellent surf conditions.” Friday the 31st sees a jump in size to 10 feet with a short 8-second period, which is a bit of a weird combo. The wind is cross-off and clean, but the wave comment says it’s too big for this break. So, for the expert crew, Wednesday the 29th afternoon is the absolute best bet. Thursday morning is also a solid option.

Crowds at Karekare are listed as “sometimes,” so you might get a few locals out, but with the clean conditions, it’ll be worth it.

Rusty

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