Surf Forecasts:
Karekare surf forecast from 24 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 25 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, WSW swell with cross-onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 31 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 17s period, SW swell with 10,504 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 25 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:
The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 25) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-onshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 4.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 4s period and expected on Friday (Aug 28) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12PM (Tue 25th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 12PM (Tue 25th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Mon 31st Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here with the long-range look at what’s on the cards for Karekare. Let’s cut straight to it.
The next few days are a bit of a mixed bag, but we’ve got a real standout window shaping up that’s worth circling on the calendar. Karekare is an exposed, intermediate-friendly beach break that really lights up on a solid SW groundswell, and there’s plenty of that on the way.
First up, the water is sitting at 57°F, which is pretty much normal for this time of year – nothing to write home about, just your standard winter chill.
Right now, we’re looking at a big, powerful pulse of swell. On Tuesday the 25th, we’ve got a 10ft SW groundswell with a 15-second period, packing a massive 4407 units of combined energy. The wind is blowing onshore from the WSW at 12 mph. Honestly, it’s going to be a beast – way too big and raw for a comfortable paddle, even for experienced surfers. The conditions are just too meaty to recommend.
Wednesday the 26th drops a little to 8ft, but the wind is still onshore and the energy is still high at 2378 units. The tide and wind combo just isn’t coming together for clean waves. It’s a bit of a write-off for a quality session.
Thursday the 27th is where things get interesting. The morning is still a bit lumpy, but Thursday afternoon is the real standout. The swell drops to a much more manageable 7ft from the WSW, with a 13-second period, and the wind turns glassy – dead calm, offshore conditions. The water will be smooth as silk, and the energy is still a solid 1400 units. This is a prime window for experienced surfers to get some clean, well-shaped lines. That’s the one to aim for.
From Friday the 28th through to the start of the following week, the swell drops off significantly, dropping to around 3ft to 4ft. The wind is messy, mostly cross-shore or cross-on, and the energy is weak (under 1000 units). There’s a brief moment on Saturday the 29th morning with a light cross-offshore NE breeze and clean conditions on a 3ft SW swell, but it’s small and inconsistent. It’s not really worth getting excited about for a dedicated session.
Sunday the 30th and Monday the 31st get ugly. Strong onshore winds, building swell back up to 8ft and then 15ft, with massive energy readings – 3864 and 9344 units. The wind is cross-onshore and choppy, making it a complete mess. This is pure, unsurfable chaos.
The first week of September looks like a write-off too. We’re looking at big, powerful, and dangerous conditions. Swells ranging from 10ft to a massive 18ft, combined with strong onshore winds (19-34 mph) and energy readings hitting 10,000 to 19,000 units. It’s just too big, too windy, and too dangerous for paddling. Honestly, if you’re into kitesurfing, this stretch might be worth a look, but for a regular surfer, stay well clear.
After that, we get a bit of a rebuild. By the 7th of September, we’re still looking at 10ft to 15ft swells, but the wind is lighter onshore. The sets will be big, but the conditions are still on the heavy side.
But then, we get another promising window. On Tuesday the 8th of September, the swell drops to 5ft from the SW, with a 15-second period, and a light cross-offshore NE breeze. The energy is a solid 1595 units, and the conditions are clean. That’s a really nice, clean, accessible swell for a good session.
And Wednesday the 9th of September brings a bit of a curveball. The swell swings to the NW, with a short 8-second period, reaching 8ft. The wind is light and cross-offshore, so it’ll be clean, but the short period from the NW means it’s going to be a bit more jumbled and less powerful. It’s a different kind of wave, but for the experienced surfer, there could be some fun ones to be had.
So, to wrap it up: the absolute standout is Thursday afternoon the 27th of August. Glassy, clean 7ft SW groundswell, ideal for experienced surfers. Keep an eye on Tuesday the 8th of September as well for another clean, accessible window. The rest of the run is either too big, too windy, or too small. Stay safe out there.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu morning, min 12°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Fri afternoon, min 12°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (calm on Sat morning, fresh winds from the SW by Sun night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WNW 9 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 20 | WSW 18 | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 17 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
4407 | 3526 | 2655 | 2378 | 2582 | 2153 | 1622 | 1289 | 965 | 357 | 425 | 304 | 346 | 473 | 450 | 609 | 759 | 733 | 3118 | 9344 | 10452 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 8:20PM2.66m | 8:41AM2.59m | 9:02PM2.83m | 9:22AM2.76m | 9:41PM2.98m | 10:02AM2.90m | 10:20PM3.08m | 10:41AM2.99m | 10:58PM3.14m | 11:20AM3.03m | 11:36PM3.14m | 11:58AM3.02m | 00:13AM3.08m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:16PM0.87m | 2:49AM0.77m | 2:59PM0.68m | 3:26AM0.58m | 3:39PM0.51m | 4:03AM0.41m | 4:16PM0.37m | 4:39AM0.29m | 4:54PM0.29m | 5:16AM0.22m | 5:32PM0.27m | 5:54AM0.21m | 6:10PM0.30m | ||||||||
6:52 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:46 | — | — | 6:45 | — | — | |
— | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
Feels °C | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | NW 7 | WNW 9 | WNW 8 | WSW 12 | SW 10 | WSW 18 | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | — | — |
4407 | 3526 | 2655 | 2378 | 2582 | 2153 | 1622 | 1289 | 965 | 234 | 156 | 280 | 219 | 473 | 450 | 609 | 759 | 733 | 3118 | — | — | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 21 | WSW 20 | SW 9 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | 111 | 103 | 357 | 425 | 304 | 346 | 170 | 432 | 135 | 225 | 278 | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 9 | WSW 22 | SW 22 | WSW 10 | WSW 19 | SW 13 | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 62 | 50 | 118 | 33 | 428 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 4 | NW 7 | — | NE 3 | — | NW 8 | WNW 8 | WSW 7 | SW 8 | SW 8 | SW 8 | SW 16 | SW 17 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | 174 | — | 2 | — | 247 | 400 | 478 | 406 | 464 | 746 | 9344 | 10452 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 236 | 236 | 236 | 236 | 335 | 295 | 127 | 0 | 0 | 127 | 317 | 6 | 0 | 36 | 49 | 49 | 90 | 77 | 77 | 90 | 77 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Auckland | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











