Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let's have a look at what's coming down the pipe for Karekare over the next couple of weeks. I've got to be straight with you, it's a bit of a waiting game. There's a massive, powerful swell on the way from the get-go, but the wind is a real bastard for most of it.

We kick off on Friday the 11th of September with a serious, ground-breaking swell. We're looking at a solid 15 ft out of the southwest, with a very long period of 19 seconds. The combined energy is huge, clocking in at 13398. But don't get too excited. The wind is a fresh 19 mph southerly, blowing cross-shore, which is going to tear the place up. It's just too messy to even think about paddling out. There's some rain around, too.

That whole first week is a write-off, to be honest. The swell stays over 13 ft or 12 ft right through until Monday the 14th, but it's blown out by 16-25 mph winds from the south and southwest. The conditions are just ugly. Even though the swell direction is lining up perfectly with what this break likes, the wind is killing it.

There's a glimpse of hope on the morning of Thursday the 17th. The swell has dropped to a more manageable 7 ft from the west-southwest, with a period of 12 seconds. The wind swings around to a light 6 mph north-northeast, giving us a clean cross-offshore breeze. It looks like the best conditions of the whole outlook, but it's only rated as good for experienced surfers. Still, for the persistent locals, that morning could be a real gem. The afternoon gets a bit lumpy, though.

Then, wouldn't you know it, we get a classic Karekare situation. A massive new swell rolls in again on Friday the 18th of September, hitting 10 ft from the southwest with a 15-second period. The wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-shore, and it's just too big for the beach. It feels like this spot is either flat or a washing machine. By Saturday the 19th, we're looking at another 13 ft pulse of southwest swell, with moderate onshore winds. It's just not happening.

If you're a kitesurfer, you might be having the time of your life with these strong winds and big, lumpy swell. But for a paddle surfer, it's a frustrating outlook.

There is another glimmer right at the tail end. On the morning of Thursday the 24th of September, the wind drops to an absolute glassy 3 mph from the west. The swell sits at 8 ft from the west-southwest with a long 17-second period. That's a beautiful, clean setup for a bigger wave. The combined energy is a solid 4140. For the big-wave chargers, that is the standout session in the entire 16-day window. But the window is small, and the swell is still substantial, so it's definitely one for the experienced crew only.

So, there you have it. A few potential windows, but mostly a lot of waiting and watching from the sand. Keep an eye on that Thursday the 17th morning for a clean one, and definitely mark your calendar for the glassy dawn patrol on Thursday the 24th of September.

Rusty.

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