Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, checking in on Karekare. This outlook has a tricky run, especially for the first week or so. There’s a heap of swell on the way, but the wind and conditions are gonna make it a real battle. Let’s start with what we’ve got.

Right off the bat, Wednesday the 16th is pretty ordinary. We’ve got a 5ft SW groundswell rolling in with a 13-second period, but light west winds are blowing onshore, making it messy. The combined energy is moderate at 897, but the quality is just not there.

Thursday the 17th sees the swell push up to 7ft from the W with a 12-second period, but a moderate north breeze is crossing it up, creating a nasty cross-chop. The wave energy jumps to 1453 in the morning and 2348 in the afternoon, but it’s still marginal at best.

Friday the 18th is where it gets real. We’ve got solid 12ft to 15ft WSW swells, but the wind is howling from the SW at 25 mph in the afternoon, making it cross-onshore and blown out. Wave energy is through the roof, hitting 5517 in the morning and a massive 10631 in the afternoon. Unless you’re an expert on a big-wave gun, this is a no-go. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

That big, windy pattern hangs around through the weekend and into Monday the 21st. We’re looking at 15ft to 21ft swells with fresh to near-gale force winds. The combined energy values are all four and five digits, peaking at 13342 on Sunday afternoon. It’s a full-on, blown-out mess.

Now, Monday the 21st afternoon has a note about wind and tide being favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break at 13ft. The wave energy is a huge 15079, so it’s a pass for most.

Tuesday the 22nd and Wednesday the 23rd are still on the big side, with 8ft to 12ft swells, but the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, keeping things choppy and lumpy.

We finally get a brief window on Thursday the 24th morning. The swell is still a chunky 10ft from the SW with a long 16-second period, and we get a light SE breeze that’s cross-offshore and clean. The wave energy is strong at 5017, and conditions are clean, but again, it’s likely too big for most surfers at Karekare.

Friday the 25th and Saturday the 26th are a mix of marginal and poor, with 5ft to 8ft swells and moderate cross-shore winds.

Then on Sunday the 27th morning, we get a standout moment. The swell has dropped to a manageable 5ft from the SW with a 12-second period, and more importantly, the wind goes completely glassy – zero wind, calm conditions. The wave energy is moderate at 719, and the comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the clear highlight of the whole 16 days. The tide and break might still play a part, but with glassy conditions and a clean, long-period swell, it’s worth a look.

The rest of the run into the end of September and start of October is pretty average. Monday the 28th has a tiny 3ft to 4ft WSW swell with a very long period of 19 to 21 seconds, but the wind is light onshore, and the wave energy is low at 1098. The rest of the days are mostly poor or marginal with onshore and cross-onshore winds.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off for most due to size and wind. The only real standout is Sunday morning the 27th – glassy, clean, and a nice 5ft SW swell. That’s your best bet. After that, things taper off into smaller, less consistent surf. It’s a long wait for that one good session.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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