
Surf Forecasts:
Karekare surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 15 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with cross-onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 19 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 17s period, SW swell with 5,946 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 15 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:
The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-onshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 3.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3PM (Wed 15th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Wed 15th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Sun 19th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s coming our way for Karekare.
Right off the bat, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We've got a lot of swell in the window, but it’s going to take a few days before things settle down for a proper paddle. The first few days are all about big, powerful groundswell, but the winds aren't playing nice. The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is about average for the time of year.
For Wednesday the 15th, Karekare sees a solid 6ft swell from the WSW with a very long period of 18 seconds. The energy is strong at 2924. But the wind is a light cross-on, so it's not going to be clean. In the afternoon, it jumps up to 10ft with a 16-second period, and the energy hits 5131. That’s way too much for a beach break, especially with the cross-onshore wind.
Thursday the 16th is more of the same with 10ft swell and 16-second period. The morning has moderate cross-on wind, and the tide and wind might be favorable, but honestly, that size is only for the most experienced, and even then, it's a bit of a beast. The energy remains very strong at 3803.
Friday the 17th sees the swell drop a little to 8ft and 8ft, but the wind swings to the SW and picks up, making things choppy and messy. Not a day to get excited about.
Saturday the 18th is a write-off. 10ft swell, strong cross-on wind at 12-16 mph, and the combined energy is very high again. It’s just poor, blown-out conditions. If you’re into kitesurfing, this setup might be more interesting than paddling out.
Sunday the 19th is a big standout. The swell is still 10ft with a 16-second period from the SW, but the wind turns offshore from the ESE at a light 6 mph in the afternoon. That’s clean, glassy surf. The energy is immense at 5300. This is serious, expert-level territory. The wave will be powerful and heavy, and it’s a long-period groundswell, so it’s going to be walling up. Karekare is fairly consistent, so you can trust it’ll be working, but you have to know what you’re doing. This is the best on offer, full stop.
Monday the 20th is more manageable. 7ft swell from the WSW, 14-second period, and light offshore wind from the E in the morning. Clean conditions and a good drop in size, but it’s still a punchy 7ft+ wave for experienced surfers only. The energy is moderate at 2053.
Tuesday the 21st is still looking good. 6ft swell and 13-second period, with a light offshore wind from the E in the morning. The wind is slight, so it’s near glassy. This is probably the best call for strong intermediates who want a taste of the action. The energy is at a moderate 1049.
From Wednesday the 22nd onwards, the swell backs right off. We’re looking at waves around 3ft to 5ft through to Friday the 24th. The period drops to 12-13 seconds, and the winds are mostly light cross-on or onshore. The energy is low, between 418 and 732. It’s marginal, not really worth a special trip.
Then Saturday the 25th through Monday the 27th sees a return of bigger swell (5ft to 8ft) but with strong, onshore winds. It’s a choppy mess again, with moderate to high energy but poor conditions. Another gap of poor surf.
By Tuesday the 28th, the swell is 7ft to 8ft, but the wind is still onshore and strong. The energy is moderate to high, but it’s blown out.
The real golden window comes back on Wednesday the 29th. We get a 6ft swell with a 12-second period, and the wind is glassy from the NW. The energy is moderate at 1068. That’s excellent surf for experienced crew. Clean, glassy waves. This is the second standout, and it’s only a week and a half away.
After that, Thursday the 30th sees things fade again with 5ft to 5ft swell and light cross-on wind. The energy drops to 516-892.
So, to wrap it up: The best days are Sunday the 19th for expert-level, big, powerful, offshore surf at Karekare. And Wednesday the 29th for a cleaner, more manageable session with glassy conditions. Don't get too excited about the rest.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 13°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1944 | 5131 | 4779 | 3803 | 3326 | 2598 | 2305 | 3282 | 3979 | 3784 | 3348 | 3713 | 5002 | 4055 | 2962 | 2053 | 1621 | 1291 | 1011 | 841 | 576 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | off | off | off | cross-off | glassy | off | cross | glassy |
High Tide | 10:33AM3.19m | 10:59PM3.34m | 11:23AM3.24m | 11:47PM3.36m | 12:10PM3.24m | 00:32AM3.32m | 12:55PM3.20m | 1:15AM3.23m | 1:38PM3.10m | 1:57AM3.10m | 2:21PM2.97m | 2:40AM2.92m | 3:07PM2.81m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:53PM0.30m | 5:21AM0.22m | 5:40PM0.27m | 6:06AM0.21m | 6:25PM0.29m | 6:50AM0.25m | 7:08PM0.37m | 7:34AM0.35m | 7:51PM0.50m | 8:17AM0.49m | 8:36PM0.65m | 9:03AM0.65m | 9:24PM0.82m | ||||||||
7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | |
— | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
1944 | 5131 | 4779 | 3803 | 3326 | 2598 | 2305 | 3282 | 3979 | 3784 | 3348 | 2927 | 5002 | 4055 | 2962 | 2053 | 1621 | 1291 | 1011 | 841 | 576 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | — | WSW 20 | WSW 19 | WSW 18 |
980 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1553 | — | — | — | — | 18 | — | 38 | 34 | 62 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 11 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3713 | 298 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 101 | 318 | 147 | 129 | 122 | 77 | 49 | 77 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 90 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Auckland | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










