Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at the Karekare forecast. To be straight with you, the next couple of weeks look like a bit of a write-off for us. We’ve got plenty of swell on the way, but the wind and the size are going to keep things pretty ordinary for the most part.

We kick off on the 9th with a small 4ft WSW swell, but it’s pretty weak, with the combined energy only hitting 788, and it’s crossed up. That’s a marginal call at best.

Thursday the 10th turns ugly. The wind swings onshore and it stays that way for a while. The swell jumps to 6ft, but the period drops and it’s just a choppy mess. The conditions aren’t there for us.

Then the big one hits on Friday the 11th. We’re looking at a solid 15ft SW swell with a 19-second period. There’s a huge amount of energy in the water, with combined energy readings of 13,775 and 23,295. This is serious, powerful groundswell. But, with a 30-40 km/h cross-onshore wind, it’s going to be a lumpy, blown-out mess. Karekare is just too exposed for this. The size alone--over 2.5m--puts this in the realm for experts only, and the wind will make it near on impossible. This is more of a kite-surfing set-up than a paddle one. This pattern continues right through the weekend and into the start of next week. The swell stays big, mostly between 10ft and 16ft, with the period staying in that long 14-19 second range. But the wind stays on it, cross-onshore and gusty. Sunday the 13th has a strong 13ft SW swell with 17,371 in the energy department, and Monday the 14th has 10ft, but the wind and tide are going to be working against us.

We get a bit of a breather for a couple of days. The swell backs off to between 4ft and 8ft, but the conditions are still poor. The wind is light, but onshore, and the quality just isn't there.

Then, around the 18th and 19th, the ocean switches back on again. We’ve got another run of 12ft to 13ft SW groundswell, but, just like before, the wind is going to be blowing onshore from the west or northwest. It’s going to be messy, big and unruly. No good.

The 22nd looks a little more promising on the surface, but the models are still showing iffy conditions. The swell is a touch more moderate at 8ft, but the period is a huge 16 seconds. That long period stuff can be tricky on the beach breaks, and we’re still seeing a cross-onshore wind. It’s marginal.

The potential gem in this entire 16-day window is Thursday the 24th. We’ve got an 8ft SW swell with a 14-second period and, crucially, a light ENE cross-offshore wind. The energy is moderate at 2276, but the clean conditions are what will make it. This is the standout. It might still be a touch big for the beginners, but for the more experienced crew, this looks like the day to point the car west. It’s over a week away, so don’t hold me to it, but it’s got the look of the only true clean day in the run.

With the water temp at a normal 15° for the time of year, we don’t have any weird anomalies to worry about.

All in all, it’s a long, frustrating fortnight. We’ll get plenty of swell, but the wind is going to cop it most of the time. That Thursday the 24th is your only real window. Mark it down, and we’ll see how it pans out.

Rusty.

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