
Surf Forecasts:
Karekare surf forecast from 12 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 14 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 13 Sep, 12PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 9,756 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 14 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:
The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 14) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.5m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-onshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 4.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 13) at 12PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 7s period and expected on Friday (Sep 18) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Mon 14th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Mon 14th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 12PM (Sun 13th Sep) | 15ft (4.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Karekare over the next couple of weeks. This isn't going to be a straightforward run. We’ve got a massive start of the period, but the conditions are going to keep it out of reach for most of us for a while.
Straight off the bat, from the morning of the 13th of September, we’re looking at a big, powerful south-west swell hitting the beach. We're talkin' a solid 15 ft swell with a very long period of 16 seconds, packing a massive 10400 combined energy. That’s a serious groundswell, and it's coming straight out of the optimal south-west direction. The problem is the wind—a fresh, cross-onshore 19 mph from the south-west is ruining it. It's lumpy, choppy, and just not good for paddling out. The water temp is 58°, which is about normal for this time of year.
This pattern of big, unsurfable swell hangs around for days. The 14th is still too big at 12 ft to 10 ft, and the wind stays cross-onshore. Honestly, for the first week, if you want a paddle, you’re fighting a losing battle. The waves are just too thumping and messy.
We start to see a drop in size around the 16th, down to 5 ft, and the wind swings light onshore from the west. Still, it’s not really calling my name. The biggest issue is these south-west swells keep coming. Even into the 17th and 18th, we get some cleaner windows with a cross-off wind from the north-north-east on Thursday morning and Friday afternoon, but the swell never really sorts itself out for quality, clean waves. It’s just… marginal.
The real standout, if you can wait, is way out there on the 27th of September. That Sunday morning, the swell has dialed back to a manageable 7 ft, still from the west-south-west with a nice 14-second period. But the wind—beauty! A light breeze from the south-south-east, barely 6 mph, and it’s a cross-off. That’s clean, glassy conditions. The combined energy is 2313, which is a solid, surfable moderate energy. This is the best window in the whole run. It’s not for learners at 7 ft, but for an experienced surfer, that’s a great session. Karekare can handle that size, and with that wind, the lines should be proper. Just know this: it’s a long way off, so don’t book your flights yet, but keep an eye on it.
The 28th of September Monday morning has a similar vibe, smaller at 5 ft, but with a light cross-off and clean faces, it’s another good pick for a longboard or a fish.
So, to wrap it up: the next week is a write-off from the wind, unless you’re into a battle. The only real light is on the 27th and 28th. That’s the one to wait for.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 12°C on Tue night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 17°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NNE on Thu night, calm by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 9 | WSW 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
10400 | 9507 | 6947 | 5268 | 4698 | 3192 | 2356 | 2155 | 1470 | 933 | 572 | 679 | 952 | 1519 | 1283 | 2918 | 3417 | 3331 | 1927 | 2122 | 5952 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 11:21AM3.22m | 11:36PM3.25m | 11:56AM3.14m | 00:10AM3.12m | 12:30PM3.02m | 00:41AM2.96m | 1:03PM2.86m | 1:13AM2.75m | 1:37PM2.68m | 1:46AM2.53m | 2:17PM2.49m | 2:31AM2.32m | 3:15PM2.32m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:32PM0.21m | 5:54AM0.17m | 6:09PM0.33m | 6:28AM0.31m | 6:43PM0.50m | 7:02AM0.49m | 7:17PM0.68m | 7:35AM0.67m | 7:53PM0.87m | 8:10AM0.86m | 8:36PM1.05m | 8:55AM1.03m | 9:36PM1.20m | ||||||||
6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | |
— | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:14 | — | — | 6:14 | — | — | 6:15 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | — | — | — | 1 | — | 5 |
Temp °C | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
Feels °C | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 15 |
— | — | 6947 | 5268 | 4698 | 3192 | 2356 | 2155 | 1470 | 933 | 572 | 679 | 952 | 1519 | 1283 | 2918 | 3417 | 3331 | 1927 | 1303 | 5952 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | SW 6 | SW 18 | — | — | W 9 | WNW 11 | WNW 11 | WNW 10 | NW 8 | WSW 21 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 31 | 12 | — | — | 102 | 637 | 892 | 421 | 45 | 45 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | — | NNW 7 | — | — | — | SW 10 | SW 9 | — |
10400 | 9507 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16 | — | 84 | — | — | — | 1531 | 2122 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 90 | 144 | 185 | 147 | 144 | 6 | 6 | 132 | 236 | 234 | 317 | 127 | 7 | 101 | 101 | 49 | 49 | 16 | 49 | 90 | 103 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Auckland | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










