Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk Karekare. This is a classic West Coast setup, exposed to the southwest, and it’s about to get a proper hammering. The water’s sitting at 59°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The real story here is the size. We’ve got a big, long-period groundswell rolling in from the southwest, and it’s going to be pumping for a solid run. The combined energy is massive – over 2000 (2291) early on Sunday, and it just keeps climbing. This is proper, heavy energy, not some weak chop. Waves are 7ft on Sunday morning with a 16-second period, and the wind is a light easterly cross-off. That’s clean, lined-up, powerful stuff. Sunday afternoon goes glassy with a 7ft swell from the WSW. That’s your standout window for sure – the best of the whole outlook. It’s clean, it’s powerful, and it’s got that long period in the water. This is for experienced surfers only; beginners will be out of their depth.

The swell holds through Monday, but the wind shifts. Monday morning is still clean with a 5ft swell, but by the afternoon it’s cross-on and messy. Tuesday brings a 7ft swell but it’s short period (8 seconds) and choppy – not worth the paddle. Wednesday gets wild again, with a 10ft swell and cross-on wind, and that’s when it becomes too big for this break. That size continues right through Thursday, Friday, and Saturday – 10ft is the dominant theme, and the wind is onshore or cross-on most of the time. It’s a washing machine, and honestly, more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

There’s a bit of a lull from the 20th of July into the 21st, where the swell drops back to 7ft and 6ft, and with offshore east winds, it cleans up nicely. That’s a decent window for experienced surfers again, but it’s not the same beast as the first Sunday. The combined energy is down to 1689 and then 1069 – still solid, but not pumping.

The end of the outlook gets weird. On the 23rd of July, the swell spikes back to 10ft but with a 8-second period, and the wind is offshore. That’s a weird combo – heavy, short, dumpy waves. The 24th and 25th settle back to 6ft to 7ft with clean winds, which is good, but nothing special. The final days on the 26th and 27th are messy and onshore, so it’s a fizzle.

So, the clear standout is Sunday the 12th of July – morning and afternoon. That’s your session. The second week has some clean, smaller windows, but it’s not going to blow your mind. Crowds are “sometimes” an issue at Karekare, and on a Sunday like that, expect a few locals out, but it’s a big enough beach to spread out.

Rusty

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