Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for the next couple of weeks.

We’re starting off with a bit of a wait. The first real session on offer is Monday afternoon, July 20th, at Karekare. The water’s sitting at 58°F, which is about average for this time of year, nothing weird there. The swell is a solid 7 ft from the WSW, with a period of 14 seconds, so that’s a proper groundswell with some serious energy behind it (combined energy of 1777). That’s moderate-to-strong stuff. It’s a bit much for beginners, but for experienced surfers, this is clean with a light offshore breeze from the ENE. That’s a good start.

The standout session of the whole forecast, though, has to be Tuesday morning, July 21st. The swell drops to a more manageable 6 ft, still from the SW, with that same long 14-second period. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the SE, and the surf is clean. The combined energy is still strong at 1058. This is the pick of the early run – clean, powerful, and not too crowded (crowds only sometimes). It’s a quality window for an intermediate surfer.

After that, things get a bit messy. Tuesday afternoon sees the wind swing onshore, and the quality drops. Wednesday and Thursday are a write-off with onshore winds and choppy conditions. The swell builds again Thursday afternoon, but the wind is straight onshore.

The real trouble starts on Saturday, July 25th. The swell jumps to a massive 16 ft from the WSW, and the wind is a screaming cross-onshore near gale at 31 mph. The energy reading is insane at 6979. This is blown out, dangerous, and way too big for anyone but the most experienced, and even then, it’s not clean. Sunday and Monday are the same story – huge, messy, and onshore. This stretch is more for kite surfers than paddle surfers, honestly.

The second week, from around July 30th, we see another big groundswell pulse, but the winds are still onshore or cross-onshore. On Thursday, July 30th, we get an 8 ft swell from the WSW with a very long 17-second period, but the wind is onshore from the W. The energy is very strong at 4654, but it’s not clean. It’s a promising swell for a reef or point, but Karekare is an exposed beach, so that long period will just make it close out.

The very end of the forecast, August 3rd and 4th, we start to see some lighter winds again. The swell is still huge – 12 ft to 15 ft – but the wind goes light and cross-offshore. The energy is very strong (4461 to 8200). For a big-wave specialist, Monday afternoon, August 3rd, and Tuesday morning, August 4th, could be the only window where the size and the wind actually line up. But it’s a long way off and far from certain. For now, the best bet is that Tuesday morning, July 21st.

Rusty.

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