
Surf Forecasts:
Karekare surf forecast from 22 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 26 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 14s period, WSW swell with onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 25 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 20ft (6.0m), 14s period, WSW swell with 14,248 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 23 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:
The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 23) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 6s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 6.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 25) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.8m 6s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 3PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Thu 23rd Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Sun 26th Jul) | 16ft (5.0m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Sat 25th Jul) | 20ft (6.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Right, mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming for us.
Alright, look, the next few days are a bit of a write-off for Karekare, I gotta be straight with you. There’s a lot of onshore wind and lumpy, messy conditions right through the start of the week. We’re looking at a solid wall of SW swell, around 5 ft on Wednesday morning, but with a 12 mph cross-on breeze, it’s just choppy and poor. Not worth paddling out for. That theme carries on through the rest of the working week – the wind is just not playing ball.
Now, Thursday the 23rd is where it gets interesting. There’s a real window of opportunity in the morning. The swell is still a solid 5 ft from the SW, but the wind swings to the south at a mere 3 mph and goes glassy. The combined wave energy is strong (1037), and with a 14-second period, this is proper groundswell. It’s going to be clean and holding plenty of power. This is for experienced surfers though – that size and period at Karekare can be a handful. The water temp is 58°, which is about average for the time of year. This is your standout for the week.
The rest of the weekend and into next week gets messy again. We get a massive pulse on Saturday the 25th, with swell hitting 18 ft to 20 ft, but it’s wrapped in a 25-28 mph cross-onshore. The energy is extreme (6925 and 13068), but it’s just a washing machine. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle. Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th see the swell drop a bit, but it’s still too big (over 8 ft) and the wind is still a problem. The forecast says it’s too big for the break, and I agree.
There’s a long gap of poor conditions. The next real chance doesn’t come until Monday the 3rd of August. That morning, the wind goes light offshore from the ENE at 3 mph, with a 5 ft SW swell at a very long 18 seconds. The energy is strong (2145), and it’s clean. That’s a beautiful morning for a paddle, especially for those who know how to handle a long-period groundswell at a beach break. Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th also offer clean mornings, with light winds and good, lined-up swell (5 ft to 6 ft). These are the ones to circle on the calendar, but they’re a good week and a half out, so keep an eye on it.
To sum it up, don’t bother with the first week. Thursday the 23rd morning is your best bet for a clean, powerful session. The following week, from Monday the 3rd of August onwards, looks promising with a string of clean mornings, but we’ll have to see how it firms up.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (calm on Thu morning, strong winds from the W by Fri night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 21mm), heaviest during Sat night. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun morning, min 8°C on Sun afternoon). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Sat morning, calm by Sat night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | W 9 | WSW 11 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
712 | 282 | 205 | 975 | 1127 | 983 | 488 | 390 | 1592 | 6925 | 13068 | 10647 | 8631 | 6386 | 4333 | 3207 | 2940 | 2253 | 1857 | 1501 | 955 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | on | cross-on | cross | cross | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 3:57PM2.65m | 4:19AM2.55m | 4:55PM2.53m | 5:21AM2.43m | 6:00PM2.49m | 6:28AM2.39m | 7:06PM2.53m | 7:31AM2.44m | 8:02PM2.62m | 8:23AM2.54m | 8:48PM2.74m | 9:07AM2.66m | 9:29PM2.86m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:52AM0.82m | 10:18PM0.97m | 10:47AM0.96m | 11:19PM1.07m | 11:46AM1.04m | 00:25AM1.10m | 12:48PM1.05m | 1:30AM1.06m | 1:49PM1.00m | 2:27AM0.96m | 2:41PM0.89m | 3:12AM0.83m | 3:25PM0.77m | ||||||||
7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | |
— | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | |
mm | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 4 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 2 | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
Feels °C | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 12 | SW 7 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | W 8 | WSW 18 | — | — | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | — | — | — | SW 18 | SW 17 | WSW 16 |
51 | 282 | 143 | 975 | 1127 | 983 | 488 | 160 | 126 | — | — | 10647 | 8631 | 6386 | 4333 | — | — | — | 13 | 11 | 26 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | WSW 16 | SW 12 | SW 6 | — | — | — | WSW 12 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | 102 | 205 | 62 | — | — | — | 390 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | WSW 15 | — | — | — | — | W 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | 121 | — | — | — | — | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 7 | — | — | SW 6 | — | NW 4 | NW 6 | W 9 | WSW 11 | WSW 13 | — | — | — | — | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 |
712 | 156 | — | — | 49 | — | 40 | 269 | 1592 | 6925 | 13068 | — | — | — | — | 3207 | 2940 | 2253 | 1857 | 1501 | 955 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 132 | 236 | 95 | 0 | 332 | 308 | 127 | 319 | 83 | 332 | 175 | 49 | 48 | 77 | 48 | 49 | 90 | 86 | 77 | 77 | 49 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Auckland | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










