Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for our local stretch—Karekare. To be honest, it’s a bit of a mixed bag over the next 16 days. We’ve got some serious size coming through, but the wind is going to be a pest for most of it. The water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is about normal for this time of year—nothing out of the ordinary there.

The first real chance to paddle out hits on Thursday the 20th, early. It’s a clear morning with a light SSE breeze—that’s a clean cross-off wind, keeping the surface glassy. We’ve got a solid 8ft SW groundswell with a nice 14-second period and a combined energy reading of 2155—plenty of grunt in the water. This is for experienced surfers, no doubt, because the swell is pushing above 8ft. For the crew who can handle it, the wave quality is going to be excellent.

Thursday afternoon, the wind swings SW and picks up to 9 mph, turning cross-on and making things choppy. The swell is still around 7ft, but the texture drops off quick. Friday the 21st is a write-off—onshore wind all day, messy and lumpy.

Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd are a bust. Saturday is onshore and choppy, while Sunday turns into a windblown mess with a 25 mph WNW breeze whipping up 12ft of lumpy ocean. The energy readings go through the roof—2762 on Sunday afternoon—but with that cross-on wind, it’s just a washing machine. For kite surfers, this would look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a hard no.

Monday the 24th delivers another dose of serious size—13ft SW swell with a 16-second period and a massive combined energy of 8289. The wind is cross-on again, but the notes say wind and tide are favorable. Still, 13ft is only for the most experienced, and the lack of offshore wind is a letdown. Tuesday the 25th is similar—triple overhead and clean enough, but those 10ft SW swells are still heavy and lined up. Honestly, if you’ve got the skills and a big wave board, Monday and Tuesday mornings are the standout sessions this far out—just know you’ll want a buddy for safety.

From Wednesday the 26th onward, things start to drop. The size eases, but the wind is messy or cross-on. Thursday the 27th morning sees a 10ft SW swell with a NNE breeze—cross-off and clean, but the height is still a handful for most. After that, we get a nice run from Friday the 28th through Sunday the 30th. Friday morning is the pick: 5ft SW swell, 12-second period, and a light NNE cross-off wind keeping it clean. The energy is moderate at 1120, but the quality is there for an intermediate session. Friday afternoon and Saturday are still clean with cross-off winds, but the swell drops a bit.

The end of August and start of September fizzle out. Sunday the 30th has some rain and fresh ENE winds, but the swell is small. By Tuesday September 2nd, it’s down to tiny 1ft swell with a 21-second period—that’s a lot of time between sets, and the onshore wind kills it. The final days see a spike in wind—28 mph SW on Thursday September 3rd—but the swell is messy and crossed-up.

So, to wrap it up: the best bets are Thursday morning August 20th for a clean, meaty session for the experienced, and Monday/Tuesday August 24th-25th for those who chase real size. The second week is much quieter and less reliable. Keep an eye on the wind, because when it’s off, Karekare can be world-class.

Rusty.

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