Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let's have a proper look at what's on the menu for Karekare.

We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming up. The first few days have some clean, punchy swells, but then things get messy for a long stretch. The best window for a paddle is right at the start, and then again way out at the beginning of August.

The water temperature is sitting at about 59°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, so a 4/3 steamer is your friend.

Monday, July 20th is the standout. We’re looking at a solid 7ft groundswell from the WSW with a 14-second period. That’s proper energy, with a combined swell energy reading of 2053, meaning there’s plenty of power in the water. The wind is a light NE breeze, so it’s cross-off, keeping the face clean. This is excellent, experienced surfers only territory – it’s solid and will have some push. That wind direction is also perfect for the break, almost acting like offshore. Karekare can get a crew, but it’s worth it.

Tuesday morning, July 21st still holds. The swell drops a touch to 6ft, but it’s from a clean SW direction with a 14-second period. The big news is the wind: a light ESE breeze, which is full offshore. That’s a major positive, promising smooth, clean lines. It’s still got a solid energy reading of 1064. Tuesday afternoon sees the wind swing cross-shore and the quality drops a notch, but the morning is a serious option.

Then we hit a dry spell. From Wednesday, July 22nd all the way through to Thursday, July 30th, the wind is mostly onshore, cross-onshore, or just plain strong. The swell gets huge – we’re talking 13ft, 18ft, even 23ft later on – but the wind is a mess. It’s going to be blown out, choppy, and ugly. For a couple of days around the 30th, the swell is too big for the break, even with favorable wind, so that’s a no-go for paddle surfing. Honestly, this whole stretch looks more interesting for kite surfing than a traditional surf session.

After that long, poor run, we get a flicker of hope. Saturday, August 1st morning looks promising. The swell drops back to a manageable 6ft from the SW, with a 14-second period and a clean 1480 energy reading. The wind is a light ESE cross-off breeze, which is going to make for some clean, fun waves. It’s a long way out, so don’t bank on it, but conditions are looking good.

Monday, August 3rd morning also has a clean cross-off wind, but the swell is 8ft and the energy is 4943. That’s solid, and the wind is good, but it’s a powerful swell, so it’s for the experienced crew only.

Overall, the first two days are your best bet. Don’t get fooled by the huge swell later in the period; without clean wind, it's just a washing machine. Keep your eyes on that first morning and maybe the start of August.

Rusty out.

Read more