Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll level with you – the next 16 days at Karekare are a real mixed bag, and for the most part, it’s a waiting game. The first proper surf that’s worth paddling out for doesn’t show up until Wednesday the 23rd of September, with a smaller window on Friday the 25th. Before that, the swell is either too big, too messy, or the wind has it all chopped up. Hold tight.

We start off with a bit of a tease. Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th of September see a solid groundswell building, but the wind is a nightmare. Thursday morning you’ve got a 3.9ft swell from the WSW with a long 18-second period, but that WNW wind at 12 mph is onshore, and the whole thing is marginal. By Friday morning, the swell jumps to 9.8ft from the WSW with a 19-second period – that’s a big, powerful groundswell (combined energy of 9152). But it’s too big for this break, and the wind is a messy cross-shore. Friday afternoon is even bigger at 14.8ft from the SW, and with a 19 mph cross-onshore wind, it’s just a lumpy, dangerous mess. Not for paddling.

Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th are a write-off. Swell is still massive – 16.4ft and 14.8ft – with strong, cross-onshore winds making it pure chaos. The water temperature is around 58.1°, which is about average for this time of year, but you won’t feel it because you’ll be getting thrashed.

The following week is much the same. Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th have clean skies but the swell is still too big (9.8ft and 7.9ft), and the wind is cross-onshore or onshore. It’s a frustrating pattern. Wednesday the 16th sees the swell drop to 4.3ft, but a fresh NW wind at 19 mph ruins it. Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th are back to huge, dangerous swell with strong winds. There’s a gap of several days here with no real surf recommendation.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On Wednesday the 23rd of September, we finally get a break. The morning is a bit of a surprise – a 9.8ft swell from the SSW, but it’s still too big for most. The real standout is the Wednesday afternoon session. The swell drops to a much more manageable 4.6ft from the SW, with a 14-second period. But the wind is what makes it magic: a light N/NE breeze at 6 mph, blowing cross-offshore. That’s clean as a whistle. The combined energy is 1351, so it’s not a thumping day, but the quality is there for experienced surfers. This is your best bet for the whole forecast period – a clean, lined-up afternoon.

Then on Friday the 25th of September, there’s another chance. The morning session has a 5.6ft swell from the WSW with a 15-second period, and light N/NE winds at 6 mph, again cross-offshore. It’s another clean, quality window for those who know what they’re doing. The afternoon is a bit more marginal.

So, to wrap it up: if you’re a beginner, this whole 16 days is a no-go, with swell over 4.9ft almost every day. For the experienced crew, the standout is Wednesday the 23rd of September afternoon, with Friday the 25th morning as a solid backup. The rest is just waiting for the wind and swell to line up. The crowds at Karekare can be an issue, but for these clean windows, it might be worth the gamble. Karekare is an exposed beach break, so when that long-period groundswell shows up, it can be a bit straight, but with the wind off the land, it’ll be a treat.

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