Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve got the lowdown on Karekare. Let’s break it down.

We’re in for a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks. The water’s sitting at about 56°F, which is a touch cooler than normal for this time of year – nothing too wild, but you’ll feel it. The real story is the swell and wind dance that’s about to play out.

The early part of the week is a write-off, to be honest. Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th are messy. You’ve got a solid 8ft WNW swell on Sunday morning with a 10-second period, but the wind is a cross-shore from the N at 9 mph, and the wave energy is pumping at 2865 (moderate to strong), yet the conditions are just marginal. It’s not clean, and it’s not fun. Monday’s no better, with a WSW swell building but cross-onshore winds picking up to 12 mph and energy still in the 1300-1400 range. Forget about it.

Things finally turn around on Tuesday the 11th. This is the first real standout. Tuesday morning and afternoon, the swell drops to a manageable 4ft from the WSW with a solid 14-second period, giving it some proper long-period groundswell punch (energy around 872-938, which is moderate). But the magic is the wind – light offshore from the ENE at just 3 mph. That’s going to glass things up and give you clean, lined-up waves. Karekare’s a fairly consistent spot, so you can expect some fun ones. The break works best with a SW swell direction, and this is close enough to get it working. For the intermediate surfer, this is your window. Crowds can show up sometimes, so get out early.

Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th are a bit of a mixed bag. Wednesday morning has a smaller 3ft swell with a very long 18-second period, but the wind is a cross-off from the NE at 16 mph, which keeps it clean but a bit gusty. The energy drops to 636 (weak to moderate), so it’s not pumping. Thursday afternoon, however, is worth a mention. The swell picks up to 4ft with another long 18-second period from the WSW, and the wind lightens to a 6 mph cross-off from the NNE. The energy climbs to 1154 (moderate), and the forecast says excellent conditions for experienced surfers. That long-period swell will be lining up nicely, but at a beach break it might get a bit straight – still, for those who know what they’re doing, it’s good.

Friday the 14th morning is also solid – 5ft WSW swell, 16-second period, light cross-off wind, energy at 1436. Clean and punchy.

Then we hit a wall. Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th see the swell jump to 8ft and then 12ft from the WSW and SW. The wind goes onshore and strong (19 mph on Saturday afternoon, with energy hitting 4076 – strong). Sunday the 16th has a monster 12ft SW swell with energy at 9993 (very strong), but the waves are way too big for most, and the wind is cross-onshore. This is expert-only territory, and honestly, it looks more like a kite surfing day than a paddle session unless you’re a pro.

Monday the 17th stays big at 10ft, still cross-onshore and choppy. Not the call.

Tuesday the 18th brings some relief. The swell drops to 8ft from the SW, period at 14 seconds, and the wind turns to a light cross-off from the SSE at 6 mph. Energy at 2113 (moderate to strong). This is another good window for experienced surfers – clean, with some size.

The last few days from the 19th to the 24th are a slow fade. Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th offer some clean 5-6ft swells with light offshore or glassy winds, but the energy drops into the 1200-1500 range. Friday the 21st is the best of the late run – 6ft WSW swell, 16-second period, light offshore ENE wind at 6 mph, and energy at 1809 (moderate). Clean, lined-up waves for those who want a solid session without the crowd.

After that, it peters out. Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd see smaller 3-4ft swells with offshore winds, but the energy drops to 250-621 (weak). By Monday the 24th, it’s just ankle-to-knee high at 2-2ft, glassy but ordinary.

Overall, the standout is Tuesday the 11th – clean, offshore, and a nice long-period groundswell. Second shout goes to Friday the 21st for a similar setup with a bit more size. The middle weekend is a no-go for paddle surfing. Keep an eye on the forecasts, though – Karekare tends not to stay flat for long.

Rusty.

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