Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Karekare’s got cookin’.

Alright mate, let’s be straight with you. Karekare’s looking at a pretty wild ride over the next couple of weeks, but it ain’t gonna be easy. There’s a whole heap of swell, but the wind’s gonna be a real pain for the first week and a bit, so you’ll be sitting most of that out. The water temp is sitting at 58°F, which is pretty much exactly what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing weird there.

So, here’s the deal. The first week, from Wednesday the 2nd all the way through to Tuesday the 8th, is basically a write-off. Don't even bother paddling out. You’ve got swell pumping—10ft to 15ft from the WSW and SW—and the wave energy is huge, like 4,016 to 9,209. That sounds epic, but the wind is howling onshore or cross-onshore at 16 to 22 mph, turning the whole place into a choppy, lumpy mess. The wave comment just says "poor surf conditions" for most of it. There’s one moment on Saturday the 5th where the wind drops a bit, but the swell is pushing 12ft, which is getting too big for most.

You gotta wait until Sunday the 6th for a little glimmer, but even then, the wind is cross-off, and the swell is 12ft with a very long 16-second period. That kind of long-period groundswell can make beach breaks like Karekare (West Coast) a bit straight and tricky, but the energy is massive (6,048). It’s still a big-wave day for experts only.

The first real standout worth getting excited about? That’s Monday the 14th of September. We’ve got a solid 10ft swell from the WSW, period 14 seconds, and the wind is light, only 6 mph from the WNW, which is onshore but light enough to keep things cleaner than the previous days. The wave energy is 4,222, which is moderate, and the forecast says wind and tide are favorable. The swell is still big, over 8ft, so this is for experienced surfers only. It’s not an ideal day to learn.

But the absolute best on offer, the one to circle on your calendar, is Sunday the 13th of September. The wind goes glassy—absolutely dead calm, 3 mph from the north—and you’ve got an 8ft swell from the WSW at 15 seconds. That’s clean, that’s smooth, and the wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” The wave energy is 2,903, so plenty of push. This is your day. Crowds at Karekare are *sometimes* an issue, so on a Sunday with these conditions, expect some company.

After that, the second week gets messy again. Monday the 14th is promising but not as clean, and then from Tuesday the 15th onward, the swell drops off and the wind comes back onshore or cross-onshore, bringing choppy conditions and poor surf. By Thursday the 17th, you’re looking at weak 4ft swell with only 633 energy, which isn’t worth the effort.

So, to sum it up: first week is a no-go unless you’re a masochist in a strong wind. The standout is Sunday the 13th of September for the glassy, clean, powerful surf. Monday the 14th is a solid backup for the crew that can handle big waves. After that, it fizzles out.

Rusty.

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