Surf Forecasts:
Karekare surf forecast from 28 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 2 Sep, 6PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 13s period, WSW swell with onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 1 Sep, 6AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 14s period, WSW swell with 9,323 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 29 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 13s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:
The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 29) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 1.2m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 5.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Sat 29th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 6PM (Wed 2nd Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Tue 1st Sep) | 16ft (5.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Righto, let's have a look at what’s on the cards for Karekare over the next couple of weeks.
The opening weekend has a real window of opportunity, but after that, things get pretty wild and messy for a while. There’s a truly massive pulse of swell due in towards the end of the first week and into the second, with some huge numbers, but it’s going to be blown out and dangerous. Most of the period is a write-off for a proper paddle session unless you are an absolute expert.
Saturday, 29 August is where it’s at. Saturday morning we’ve got a clean 3ft swell from the WSW with a 13-second period, and the wind is a light cross-off from the NE. The combined swell energy is moderate at 577, and the conditions are clean. The afternoon gets even better with a glassy 3ft WSW swell and the wind going dead calm. This is the top pick – small but perfect. The water temp is about average for the time of year.
Then we hit Sunday, 30 August. It’s all downhill from the morning as a strong SW wind kicks in at 19 mph, turning the surf lumpy. The swell jumps to 8ft by afternoon, pushing 10ft, and the period drops to 8 seconds – that’s short, wind-affected junk. The combined energy jumps to 1521, but it’s a mess. This is only for experts, and even then, it’s not going to be pretty.
Monday, 31 August through to the end of the first week sees the swell absolutely ramp up. Monday morning hits 15ft with a 13-second period, but it’s a strong cross-onshore wind. By Tuesday, 1 September, we’re looking at 16ft swells with combined energy values hitting 9335 – that’s very strong energy – but the wind is howling at 25 mph, making it unsurfable for a paddle. This is kite-surfing territory if anything. It stays like this, big and lumpy, through most of the first week.
Thursday, 3 September and Friday, 4 September are still way too big (8ft to 10ft) and onshore, with moderate to fresh cross-onshore winds. The period is long (14-15 seconds), but the wind spoils it. Just a day to watch from the sand.
Sunday, 6 September is actually the next standout date, but with a big caveat. Sunday morning has a 13ft swell from the WSW with a very long 15-second period. The combined energy is 6804 – very strong. The wind is only a gentle 9 mph cross-on, and the data says the wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for the break. This is experts only, and the long-period groundswell might make it wall up and close out at a beach break like Karekare. It’s a risky proposition but the cleanest of the big days.
Tuesday, 8 September afternoon has another similar situation: 10ft swell, gentle cross-onshore, with favorable wind and tide, but again, the swell is too big for the break.
Wednesday, 9 September morning is another tantalising “if only” moment. The wind goes offshore from the ENE at a light 6 mph, the conditions are clean, but the swell is a huge 15ft. That’s a no-go for paddling.
After that, it’s a long run of either clean but too big, or messy and onshore. Saturday, 12 September morning has a lighter wind and a 8ft swell, but the period has dropped to 13 seconds and the energy is still solid at 2791. It’s rated as marginal.
To be honest, the only real, no-brainer surf session in this entire 16-day window is Saturday, 29 August. It’s small, but you will have the place to yourself and it will be silky clean. The rest of the run is dominated by oversized, wind-affected storm surf that is more about survival than fun.
Stay safe out there.
- Rusty
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Sat morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri night, min 12°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (calm on Sat afternoon, strong winds from the WSW by Sun night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 12°C on Tue afternoon). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Mon night, light winds from the WNW by Wed night). | ||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 6 | SW 8 | SW 8 | SW 9 | SW 13 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 11 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
362 | 346 | 277 | 456 | 796 | 1009 | 2015 | 6608 | 8530 | 7948 | 9313 | 7776 | 6967 | 4440 | 3584 | 3070 | 2227 | 2522 | 1348 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 10:20PM3.08m | 10:41AM2.99m | 10:58PM3.14m | 11:20AM3.03m | 11:36PM3.14m | 11:58AM3.02m | 00:13AM3.08m | 12:37PM2.97m | 00:52AM2.98m | 1:17PM2.88m | 1:32AM2.84m | 2:02PM2.77m | 2:20AM2.68m | ||||||
Low Tide | 4:39AM0.29m | 4:54PM0.29m | 5:16AM0.22m | 5:32PM0.27m | 5:54AM0.21m | 6:10PM0.30m | 6:32AM0.25m | 6:51PM0.39m | 7:12AM0.34m | 7:34PM0.51m | 7:56AM0.46m | 8:23PM0.65m | |||||||
— | 6:48 | — | — | 6:46 | — | — | 6:45 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:01 | — | |
mm | 2 | 9 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 |
Feels °C | 12 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 9 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 20 | WSW 18 | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | SW 24 | SW 24 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 |
264 | 346 | 277 | 336 | 609 | 751 | 788 | — | — | — | 22 | 22 | 6967 | 4440 | 3584 | 3070 | 2227 | 2522 | 763 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 13 | WNW 8 | WSW 10 | W 9 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 21 | WSW 20 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — |
362 | 114 | 163 | 6 | 116 | 204 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 117 | 253 | 547 | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 22 | WSW 11 | NW 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
50 | 117 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SW 6 | SW 8 | SW 8 | SW 9 | SW 13 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 14 | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 11 |
— | — | — | 456 | 796 | 1009 | 2015 | 6608 | 8530 | 7948 | 9313 | 7776 | 5782 | — | — | — | — | — | 1348 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 175 | 163 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 123 | 144 | 234 | 236 | 335 | 319 | 335 | 234 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Auckland | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











