Karekare Surf Break

Lat Long: 37.00° S 174.48° E

Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 am 10 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Karekare sea temperature is
14.5°C
0.3° 

Karekare surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Karekare surf forecast from 10 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 10 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-onshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 11 Sep, 12PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 19s period, SW swell with 15,500 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 10 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:

The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 10) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 21s. The wind is predicted to be cross-onshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 5.0m 19s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 12PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9PM (Thu 10th Sep)10ft (3.0m) 16s
Best Surf 9PM (Thu 10th Sep)10ft (3.0m) 16s
Most Powerful12PM (Fri 11th Sep)16ft (5.0m) 19s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll level with you – the next 16 days at Karekare are a real mixed bag, and for the most part, it’s a waiting game. The first proper surf that’s worth paddling out for doesn’t show up until Wednesday the 23rd of September, with a smaller window on Friday the 25th. Before that, the swell is either too big, too messy, or the wind has it all chopped up. Hold tight.

We start off with a bit of a tease. Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th of September see a solid groundswell building, but the wind is a nightmare. Thursday morning you’ve got a 3.9ft swell from the WSW with a long 18-second period, but that WNW wind at 12 mph is onshore, and the whole thing is marginal. By Friday morning, the swell jumps to 9.8ft from the WSW with a 19-second period – that’s a big, powerful groundswell (combined energy of 9152). But it’s too big for this break, and the wind is a messy cross-shore. Friday afternoon is even bigger at 14.8ft from the SW, and with a 19 mph cross-onshore wind, it’s just a lumpy, dangerous mess. Not for paddling.

Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th are a write-off. Swell is still massive – 16.4ft and 14.8ft – with strong, cross-onshore winds making it pure chaos. The water temperature is around 58.1°, which is about average for this time of year, but you won’t feel it because you’ll be getting thrashed.

The following week is much the same. Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th have clean skies but the swell is still too big (9.8ft and 7.9ft), and the wind is cross-onshore or onshore. It’s a frustrating pattern. Wednesday the 16th sees the swell drop to 4.3ft, but a fresh NW wind at 19 mph ruins it. Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th are back to huge, dangerous swell with strong winds. There’s a gap of several days here with no real surf recommendation.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On Wednesday the 23rd of September, we finally get a break. The morning is a bit of a surprise – a 9.8ft swell from the SSW, but it’s still too big for most. The real standout is the Wednesday afternoon session. The swell drops to a much more manageable 4.6ft from the SW, with a 14-second period. But the wind is what makes it magic: a light N/NE breeze at 6 mph, blowing cross-offshore. That’s clean as a whistle. The combined energy is 1351, so it’s not a thumping day, but the quality is there for experienced surfers. This is your best bet for the whole forecast period – a clean, lined-up afternoon.

Then on Friday the 25th of September, there’s another chance. The morning session has a 5.6ft swell from the WSW with a 15-second period, and light N/NE winds at 6 mph, again cross-offshore. It’s another clean, quality window for those who know what they’re doing. The afternoon is a bit more marginal.

So, to wrap it up: if you’re a beginner, this whole 16 days is a no-go, with swell over 4.9ft almost every day. For the experienced crew, the standout is Wednesday the 23rd of September afternoon, with Friday the 25th morning as a solid backup. The rest is just waiting for the wind and swell to line up. The crowds at Karekare can be an issue, but for these clean windows, it might be worth the gamble. Karekare is an exposed beach break, so when that long-period groundswell shows up, it can be a bit straight, but with the wind off the land, it’ll be a treat.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Thu night. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SW on Thu night, strong winds from the SW by Fri night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Some drizzle, heaviest during Sun morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun morning, min 13°C on Sun afternoon). Mainly fresh winds.

Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Monday
14
Tuesday
15
Wednesday
16
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
0
!
!
0
0
0
0
0
0
!
!
!
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.2
WSW
18
1.9
WSW
11
2
WSW
16
3
WSW
19
4.5
SW
18
4.5
WSW
17
5
SW
16
3
WSW
16
4.5
SW
16
4.5
SW
16
4.5
SW
16
3.5
SW
16
3
SW
16
3
SW
15
2.5
WSW
14
2.4
WSW
14
2.1
WSW
14
1.9
WSW
14
1.3
WSW
13
2.5
WSW
10
2.5
WSW
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
835
792
1904
6390
13805
12918
12978
5155
10908
10400
9876
6947
4833
4195
2765
2250
1809
1463
563
1490
1480
Wind (km/h)
20
WNW
20
NW
25
SSW
25
SSW
30
SW
35
WSW
40
SW
35
SSW
30
SW
30
SW
25
SW
20
SSW
15
SSW
15
SW
15
SW
20
WSW
25
W
25
WNW
30
NW
35
SW
30
SW
Wind State
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
High Tide
9:14AM3.02m
9:37PM3.23m
10:00AM3.16m
10:20PM3.31m
10:42AM3.22m
11:00PM3.31m
11:21AM3.22m
11:36PM3.25m
11:56AM3.14m
00:10AM3.12m
12:30PM3.02m
00:41AM2.96m
1:03PM2.86m
1:13AM2.75m
Low Tide
3:31PM0.24m
3:58AM0.12m
4:14PM0.15m
4:39AM0.06m
4:55PM0.14m
5:17AM0.08m
5:32PM0.21m
5:54AM0.17m
6:09PM0.33m
6:28AM0.31m
6:43PM0.50m
7:02AM0.49m
7:17PM0.68m
light rain
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
mod rain
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:30
6:28
6:26
6:26
6:24
6:22
6:20
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:07
6:08
6:08
6:09
6:10
6:12
6:13
 mm
1
14
2
1
1
6
2
Temp °C
14
14
12
12
13
14
13
13
13
14
14
13
14
14
14
14
14
13
14
13
12
Feels °C
10
10
6
7
6
8
4
6
6
8
9
9
11
11
11
9
9
9
9
6
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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