Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Karekare over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you—this forecast is a bit of a mixed bag, with a rough start and some real promise later on, but you’ll have to be patient.

Right now, it’s not looking good at all. The first several days are a write-off. From Saturday the 12th right through to Tuesday the 15th, we’ve got a big, messy SW swell hammering the coast. Swell heights are sitting between 8ft and 15ft, but with strong cross-onshore winds and combined wave energy readings in the thousands (2670 to 10400), it’s just poor, lumpy conditions. Not worth paddling out unless you’re looking for a beatdown.

We finally get a little window on Wednesday the 16th. The swell drops to a more manageable 4ft to 5ft, but it’s still pretty weak and short-period (13 seconds). Combined energy is down to 646-851, and winds are light but cross-onshore. It’s marginal at best, a bit messy. You might get a few closeouts if you’re desperate.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Thursday the 17th is the standout. The swell direction holds from the WSW, with a solid 7ft to 8ft and a period of 12-15 seconds (nice groundswell energy). The combined energy jumps to 1308-3005, which is moderate but well-directed. The kicker? Thursday afternoon the wind goes glassy, with a light northerly breeze—dead calm. That’ll be clean, lined-up waves. It’s a bit on the bigger side for beginners, but for intermediate and above, this is the session to aim for. Keep in mind Karekare is an exposed beach, so that long-period swell might make it a bit walled-up, but the glassy wind will make it worthwhile. Crowds can be an issue here, so get in early.

Friday the 18th is still decent, with 7ft to 8ft swell and cleaner cross-off winds in the morning. It’s not as perfect as Thursday, but a solid backup.

Then we hit another rough patch from Saturday the 19th through to Wednesday the 23rd. The swell gets big again, 10ft to 15ft, and winds turn onshore or strong cross-shore. Combined energy readings are huge (up to 10668). The forecast notes say the swell is too big for this break during that period—these are expert-only conditions, and honestly, it looks more like a kite-surfing day than a paddle session. Thursday the 24th is similar, with 10ft to 12ft but cleaner offshore winds, though still too big for most.

Finally, the tail end of the outlook on Friday the 25th brings another good window. An 8ft WSW swell with a 15-second period, light ENE winds, and a combined energy of 2655. Conditions look excellent for experienced surfers. It’s a bit less certain this far out (over a week away), but it’s a promising end to the forecast. Saturday the 26th and Sunday the 27th fade back into marginal, onshore slop.

So, the short version: endure the first few days of crap, then circle Thursday the 17th as your best bet. Friday the 25th is the long-range hopeful.

Stay safe, and don’t be a hero in that big, messy stuff.

Rusty.

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