Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, Rusty here again. Let’s talk about Karekare.

We’re looking at a period that starts slow and then gets completely hammered by raw power. The water temp is around 58°F, which is dead average for now.

The first shot is Saturday, September 5th. There’s a 13-foot swell rolling in from the WSW with a 14-second period, and the energy is heavy at 6093 (moderate-to-strong). The wind is blowing 12 mph from the west, onshore. It’s just too big. Sunday the 6th isn’t any better: 12-foot swell, energy climbing to 6987 (strong), with cross-onshore wind. Skip it.

Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th keep the same story: 10-foot to 8-foot swell. Tuesday morning is glassy – beautiful to look at – but the 10-foot swell (energy 2891 – moderate) is still too much for a good paddle session. Tuesday afternoon drops to 8-foot (energy 1671) but the conditions are marginal.

Here’s the sweet spot: Wednesday morning, September 9th. The swell finally settles to 5 feet from the WSW with a 12-second period, the energy is down to 983 (weak), and the wind turns glassy at 3 mph. The report says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s our golden hour. Clean, fun-sized waves. Wednesday afternoon builds back to 7 feet with onshore wind, so the morning is the move.

After that, it’s a messy, dangerous mess. From Thursday the 10th right through the 20th, we see monster swells. We’re talking 21-foot (energy 28866 on the 11th!), 18-foot, and even 26-foot (energy 31225 on the 18th). The wind is howling, mostly cross-onshore or onshore. This isn’t for paddle surfing. It’s a kite surfer’s playground.

There’s a glimmer on the 19th and 20th with offshore and glassy winds, but the swell is still 20 feet tall. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’s a huge risk. There’s a solid week-long gap from the 10th to the 16th where there’s no real option.

Best bet: Wednesday morning, September 9th. Glassy, clean, and manageable. Get on it.

Rusty.

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