Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Karekare. Gotta be honest with you, the next couple of weeks are a mixed bag – some proper big groundswell on the cards, but the wind’s not always playing nice. We’ve got a long wait for the real sweet spot, but it’s there if you’re patient.

Starting off, we’ve got a monster swell rolling in from the WSW. Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th are seeing a solid 10ft groundswell with a 16-second period. That’s a lot of energy (combined energy of 5131 and 3803), but it’s just too big for this break. The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The wind is cross-on, so it’s looking a bit messy. For the experienced crew, Thursday morning might have a clean window with light offshore winds, but that swell size is a serious handful.

Into Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th, the swell stays big – 8ft to 10ft – but the wind swings more cross-on and picks up to 12-15 mph, making it choppy and frankly, not great. The energy is still massive (3417, 3873), but the conditions are poor. Honestly, this stretch is looking more like a kite surfer’s dream than a paddle surfer’s fun.

Sunday the 19th is a tease. The swell is still 10ft, but the wind goes light and cross-off in the morning, with a combined energy of 5855. It’s still too big for most, but if you’re a seasoned charger and can handle the size, that morning could have some serious, clean lines. The afternoon glass-off with 3 mph winds is a real standout for the experts.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st are the pick of the bunch for the first week. The swell drops to a more manageable 7ft to 6ft, still a solid WSW groundswell with a 13-14 second period. The wind turns offshore from the ENE, giving us clean, lined-up waves. The energy is moderate (2212, 1897, 1238), but the quality is excellent for experienced surfers. This is your window – consistent, clean, and the crowds are only sometimes, so you might have a few waves to yourself.

After that, things get marginal for a solid week. From Wednesday the 22nd right through to the weekend of the 26th, the swell drops off to 4ft to 5ft, with periods shortening. The wind is mostly cross-on, and the energy is weak to moderate (643 to 955). The conditions are rarely clean, and most days are just not worth the paddle out.

Then we hit another big pulse. Monday the 27th sees an 12ft swell rolling in from the WSW with a 16-second period, energy of 5590. Again, too big for the break, but the wind is light cross-shore, so if you’re a true expert, the morning could be a wild, challenging session. The rest of the week into the 30th is just more of the same – huge swell (13ft to 15ft) with strong onshore winds, making it a messy, dangerous affair. That’s strictly for the kamikaze crew or the kite surfers.

So, the standouts are Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st – that’s your best bet for clean, powerful waves without the chaos. Look for the ENE offshore winds and a dropping swell size. Everything else is either too big, too windy, or too small.

Rusty.

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