Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about Karekare. The water temperature’s 59°F, about average for the time of year. The next few days, though, it’s wild out there. We’ve got a lot of surf on offer, but the size is going to be the story for a while.

Starting Tuesday the 7th of July, it’s not one for the faint-hearted. The swell is a solid 10ft from the WSW, with a long 16-second period, and the energy is moderate to strong (4785). The wind’s blowing offshore from the E at 19 mph, so it’ll be clean, but this is too big for most. That 10ft size and long period mean it’s expert territory. Tuesday afternoon is similar, with a 10ft swell and offshore breeze at 12 mph.

Wednesday the 8th is rough. The morning has a 8ft SW swell with a 14-second period and a cross-shore wind at 16 mph, creating chop. The afternoon winds pick up to 19 mph, still cross-shore, and the swell jumps to 10ft from the SW. Not worth paddling out.

Thursday the 9th, Thursday morning actually looks clean with a cross-offshore wind from the SSE at 16 mph, and a 12ft SW swell (12-second period, moderate energy at 3772). Light rain rolls in by afternoon, and a strong 25 mph cross-shore wind and a 15ft swell (strong energy at 7317) makes it messy and poor.

Friday the 10th, the swell is still big. Friday morning shows a 7ft WSW swell with a very long 18-second period, but it’s cross-shore at 12 mph, creating a chop (strong energy at 6131). Friday afternoon, the swell goes to 12ft from the SW, again cross-shore at 12 mph, with very strong energy (9771). That’s expert-only, and the cross-shore wind isn’t helping.

Now, Saturday the 11th of July is our first standout. Saturday morning, the swell drops to 7ft from the SW with a 15-second period, and we get a light offshore breeze from the ESE at 6 mph. Clean, consistent (moderate energy at 3109). The afternoon is even better: 6ft from the WSW (14-second period), with a glassy offshore breeze from the E at only 3 mph. That’s clean, manageable for experienced surfers.

Sunday the 12th keeps that run going. Sunday morning, offshore wind from the E at 6 mph, 7ft WSW swell, 16-second period (moderate energy at 2178). Sunday afternoon, glassy conditions again with an ENE breeze at 3 mph and a 7ft WSW swell at 15 seconds. Both are clean, decent waves for those who can handle it, but Karekare is a fairly consistent spot, so it’s not a surprise to see some good windows.

Monday the 13th, the swell starts to drop off. Monday morning is 5ft from the WSW, 14 seconds, with a cross-offshore NE breeze at 6 mph. It’s clean but marginal (785 energy). Afternoon is smaller at 4ft, with a light cross-shore.

From Tuesday the 14th, through to Sunday the 19th, we’ve got a stretch of messy surf. Winds turn NW and cross-shore to onshore, swells bounce from 5ft to 15ft, often with strong energy and poor conditions. A few days have onshore winds and rain. There’s no real recommendation here.

Then we get our second standout: Monday the 20th of July. Monday morning, a 8ft swell from the WSW with a 16-second period (strong energy at 5717) and a gentle offshore breeze from the ESE at 9 mph. This is exceptional for experts. Afternoon holds a 8ft WSW swell (17-second period, moderate energy at 3680) with a light cross-offshore breeze from the SSE. Clean, powerful.

Tuesday the 21st of July is still good. Tuesday morning, 6ft from the WSW, 16 seconds, glassy offshore from the E at 3 mph. Clean and fun for those who can handle it.

Wednesday the 22nd of July, the swell fades. Wednesday morning is 4ft WSW, 14 seconds, with a light offshore breeze. Wednesday afternoon is tiny at 4ft, but glassy – dead calm. A nice end to the run.

So, bottom line: If you’re an experienced surfer, Saturday the 11th and Monday the 20th are your windows. Saturday morning and afternoon are clean and solid. Monday the 20th morning is the biggest swell that’s still manageable and clean. The rest of the 16 days is either too big, too messy, or too small.

Rusty.

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