Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s headin’ our way.

First up, the water temperature at Karekare is sittin’ at 57°, which is about 1° cooler than the long-term average for this time of year. Nothin’ wild, just a touch on the chilly side, so you’ll want that wetsuit fully zipped.

We’re lookin’ at a bit of a rough start. The swell is punchin’ in with moderate energy (539) on Friday morning, but that north wind is cross and the waves are lumpy. It ain’t pretty. Friday afternoon turns ugly - a 8ft NW windswell with a short 7-second period and a cross-onshore blowin’ 19 mph. That’s a write-off. Saturday is a total washout with a strong breeze and a massive 15ft to 23ft swell, way too big for this break. Sunday still has a solid 13ft groundswell (15 seconds) and 12ft groundswell (14 seconds), but the size is still too much for Karekare, even with that clean offshore wind on Sunday afternoon. It’s a real shame 'cause the conditions would be beautiful.

So, we’ve got a gap of no good surf until Monday. Monday and Tuesday are still messy with moderate cross-shore winds and a cross-chop, and the swell is hangin’ around the 8ft mark. That’s still big and bumpy. Not worth it.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Wednesday the 29th is the standout. The swell drops to a much friendlier 4ft from the WSW with an 11-second period, and the combined energy is moderate (520). But the real beauty is the wind: Wednesday afternoon goes glassy. That’s clean, smooth, and the waves will be shapin’ up nicely. It’s a fairly consistent break, so you can expect a few fun ones. This is the best on offer in the whole run.

Thursday the 30th is still alright – 6ft from the WSW, 13-second period, with a light cross-shore in the morning – but it’s not as clean as Wednesday. Friday the 31st gets sloppy again with a building swell and onshore wind.

Then we head into the second week, and it’s a mixed bag. Saturday the 1st of August has a 8ft swell from the WSW (11 seconds) with a clean cross-offshore wind, but it’s still big and the energy is strong (2208). Sunday the 2nd is smaller at 6ft with a clean cross-offshore, but it’s still a touch on the big side for a comfy paddle. The rest of the week (Monday 3rd through Friday 7th) is best described as "marginal" – the wind stays clean and cross-off, but the swell is either too small or too big, and the consistency is off. The crowd factor is "sometimes" here, so you might get a few waves to yourself on a quieter day, but it’s not consistent.

The final weekend, Saturday the 8th of August, sees a massive 12ft groundswell from the SW with a very long 17-second period. The energy is very strong (7246), but that size is only for experts. The wind is cross, but the sheer power of that swell will be intense. It’s a real shame it’s so big, 'cause the long period would normally make for some epic lines at this exposed spot.

Honestly, mark your calendar for Wednesday the 29th of July. That afternoon glassy session with 4ft of clean WSW swell is your best chance for a proper fun surf.

Rusty.

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