Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let's have a look at what’s on the cards for Karekare over the next couple of weeks.

The opening weekend has a real window of opportunity, but after that, things get pretty wild and messy for a while. There’s a truly massive pulse of swell due in towards the end of the first week and into the second, with some huge numbers, but it’s going to be blown out and dangerous. Most of the period is a write-off for a proper paddle session unless you are an absolute expert.

Saturday, 29 August is where it’s at. Saturday morning we’ve got a clean 3ft swell from the WSW with a 13-second period, and the wind is a light cross-off from the NE. The combined swell energy is moderate at 577, and the conditions are clean. The afternoon gets even better with a glassy 3ft WSW swell and the wind going dead calm. This is the top pick – small but perfect. The water temp is about average for the time of year.

Then we hit Sunday, 30 August. It’s all downhill from the morning as a strong SW wind kicks in at 19 mph, turning the surf lumpy. The swell jumps to 8ft by afternoon, pushing 10ft, and the period drops to 8 seconds – that’s short, wind-affected junk. The combined energy jumps to 1521, but it’s a mess. This is only for experts, and even then, it’s not going to be pretty.

Monday, 31 August through to the end of the first week sees the swell absolutely ramp up. Monday morning hits 15ft with a 13-second period, but it’s a strong cross-onshore wind. By Tuesday, 1 September, we’re looking at 16ft swells with combined energy values hitting 9335 – that’s very strong energy – but the wind is howling at 25 mph, making it unsurfable for a paddle. This is kite-surfing territory if anything. It stays like this, big and lumpy, through most of the first week.

Thursday, 3 September and Friday, 4 September are still way too big (8ft to 10ft) and onshore, with moderate to fresh cross-onshore winds. The period is long (14-15 seconds), but the wind spoils it. Just a day to watch from the sand.

Sunday, 6 September is actually the next standout date, but with a big caveat. Sunday morning has a 13ft swell from the WSW with a very long 15-second period. The combined energy is 6804 – very strong. The wind is only a gentle 9 mph cross-on, and the data says the wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for the break. This is experts only, and the long-period groundswell might make it wall up and close out at a beach break like Karekare. It’s a risky proposition but the cleanest of the big days.

Tuesday, 8 September afternoon has another similar situation: 10ft swell, gentle cross-onshore, with favorable wind and tide, but again, the swell is too big for the break.

Wednesday, 9 September morning is another tantalising “if only” moment. The wind goes offshore from the ENE at a light 6 mph, the conditions are clean, but the swell is a huge 15ft. That’s a no-go for paddling.

After that, it’s a long run of either clean but too big, or messy and onshore. Saturday, 12 September morning has a lighter wind and a 8ft swell, but the period has dropped to 13 seconds and the energy is still solid at 2791. It’s rated as marginal.

To be honest, the only real, no-brainer surf session in this entire 16-day window is Saturday, 29 August. It’s small, but you will have the place to yourself and it will be silky clean. The rest of the run is dominated by oversized, wind-affected storm surf that is more about survival than fun.

Stay safe out there.

- Rusty

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