Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, grab your wettie and let’s have a proper look at what Karekare’s got lined up for us over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but there are a few windows where it’s going to fire. The water’s sitting at 57°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, so nothing wild there.

The big story is that we’ve got some serious size arriving, but it’s not all going to be rideable. The swell energy starts to build over the weekend, and the numbers are big – over 4700 units of energy directed our way on Sunday morning, which is a lot of push. But the wind’s going to be up and cross, making it a bit of a mess. Sunday arvo is a different beast, though. The swell jumps to 12ft from the SW with a 16-second period and the wind swings cross-off at 9 mph. It’s going to be big – too big for the beginners, this is proper experienced surfer territory. The forecast notes the wind and tide will be favorable, but that size is the limiting factor. It’s on for the crew who know their limits.

Monday keeps that energy up, with 13ft and 12ft swells, but the wind is back onshore and strong from the south at 19 mph. It’s going to be lumpy and cross-chop, so unless you’re in love with a fight, it’s probably a day for watching from the sandhills.

We get a bit of a breather from Tuesday through to Friday. The size drops to between 7ft and 8ft, but the wind stays cross with a moderate breeze. It’s not going to be clean, and the forecast rates it as marginal at best. There’s one standout on Thursday morning – the wind drops to a light 6 mph cross-off from the SSE, and that 8ft SW swell cleans right up. The water will be glassy and it’ll be a far cry from the weekend’s chaos. It’s still a solid size, but for those with a bit of experience, Thursday morning looks like the pick of the middle part of the week.

The weekend after that is pretty poor. Light winds but cross-onshore, and the swell fades right off to 3ft to 4ft by Saturday. Not much energy behind it, and it’s just not going to be worth paddling out.

Now, the following week is when it gets interesting again. Monday the 24th looks rough, with a strong cross-onshore blow and rain. But then on Wednesday the 26th, we see another pulse of big swell – 12ft from the WSW with a 14-second period. The wind is light, but it’s cross-onshore, so while the energy is there (over 5400 units), it’s going to be a bit lumpy. It’s another one for the experienced crew, but the size and power will be something else. Wednesday afternoon it backs off slightly to 10ft, but still, it’s big.

Thursday the 27th goes to mush. The wind howls from the SW at 22-25 mph, and it’s just blown out and ugly. Not one for the water.

The real gem, the standout of the whole outlook, is the final weekend. Saturday the 29th sees another big pulse of 12ft SW groundswell, but the morning wind is light. It’s still going to be too big for most, but the energy readings are huge at over 7600. Then Sunday the 30th, something special happens. The swell settles to a still-solid 8ft from the WSW with a long 16-second period, and the wind drops to basically nothing – dead glassy. The forecast literally calls it "glassy" and "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." This is the one to circle. Long period groundswell like that will be breaking a bit straight at a beach break like Karekare, so look for the bowls and reef sections to get the best of it. It’s not going to be perfect, but it’ll be clean and powerful. After the 30th, we head into Monday the 31st with similar swell, around 6ft, but with a light offshore from the ENE. That’s clean, user-friendly surf compared to the giants we’ve been looking at.

So, to sum it up: the middle of the first week is mostly junk. The clear winners are Thursday the 20th for the clean, manageable size, and Sunday the 30th for the big, glassy, powerful groundswell. That last one is the one you’ll be telling stories about. Keep an eye on the forecasts closer to the time, as the long-range call is a promising one, but we all know how that can change.

Rusty.

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