Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here again, turning the dials over to imperial for you.

Let’s break down what’s brewing at Karekare over the next couple of weeks.

It’s a slow start, no doubt about it. We have some tiny, clean waves on Friday the 3rd, but it’s barely a ripple. Then we get a stretch of real nasty weather and some proper, scary size that will close the place out. The one shining window is all the way out in the second week, so you'll need to hold your horses.

Starting out on Friday morning, July 3rd, we have 2ft of swell from the SW with a long 13-second period. The combined energy is moderate at 166, and with a light cross-offshore breeze from the ENE, it'll be glassy clean. Friday afternoon the wind goes completely calm and glassy, and the swell drops to 2ft. You could take a longboard out, maybe.

Saturday the 4th is a write-off with 12 mph cross-offshore winds and tiny waves.

Sunday the 5th sees the swell jump to 7ft from the W on the morning, with a short 10-second period. The wind is a cross-onshore from the NW at 9 mph. The energy is already strong (1338), but it's lumpy and uninviting. By the afternoon, the swell drops to 3ft but the period stretches to a very long 17 seconds from the WSW, with a light onshore breeze. That kind of long period swell doesn't do this beach break any favors.

Monday the 6th is a complete danger zone. We are looking at 15ft of swell on the morning with a strong 19 mph onshore wind. The energy is insane at 5582. Stay on the sand. Tuesday the 7th is much the same – the wind goes offshore from the E at 12-16 mph, and the waves would be picture-perfect clean, but the swell is a massive 12ft to 10ft from the WSW with a very long 16-second period. This is strictly for the most experienced chargers, and even then, it might be too much.

Wednesday the 8th is the first day things look doable. The morning has 8ft from the SW with a 14-second period, cross-shore wind from the S at 9 mph, but it is only marginal. The afternoon is where we get our first real window. The swell drops to a more manageable 8ft from the SW, the period is still a solid 13 seconds, and the wind goes cross-offshore from the SSE at 9 mph. The energy is strong at 2050, and the notes say "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers". This is the first one to mark on the calendar.

Now, for the absolute standout of this forecast. Let's talk about the morning of Monday, July 13th. We have a clean 5ft of swell from the WSW. The period is a solid 14 seconds, the wind is glassy from the SSE at only 3 mph, and the energy is moderate at 1113. The commentary says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." That Monday morning glass-off is the total winner. Perfect conditions, great size for a solid intermediate to expert session.

Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th also offer clean windows with offshore winds. On Wednesday the 15th, we see a 4ft swell from the WSW with a very long 20-second period and a clean offshore wind from the ENE at 16 mph. The energy is moderate at 1223. That long period will deliver some nice, well-formed lines, but the long lulls between sets are a guarantee.

After that, the wind turns onshore and howls again, so the surf will be blown out from Thursday the 16th right through to the end of the forecast on Saturday the 18th. The 18th is a total mess with 25 mph winds.

So, my call: be patient and wait for the glassy 5ft swell on Monday morning, July 13th. The afternoon of Wednesday, July 8th, is also a solid pick for the experienced guys when the swell is a touch bigger. The rest is either too small, too big, or too messy to bother with.

Rusty.

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