Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for Karekare.

We’ve got a 16-day window, but the first few days are a bit of a write-off for the average punter. The action starts on Friday, July 10th, but that’s not for you and me. A solid 12ft SW groundswell (very long period at 18 seconds) is pumping in, and the combined energy is massive (8566), but it’s just too big for this break. The wind is cross from the south at 16 mph, so it’s messy and for experts only. Friday afternoon is a little better at 10ft, but still a heavy, high-energy (6141) beast.

The real window opens Saturday, July 11th. The swell drops to a more manageable 7ft from the SW (15-second period), and the wind swings to a light offshore from the ESE at 6 mph. The water temp is 59°, bang on average for this time of year. The conditions are clean, and the wave comment says it’s excellent for experienced surfers. Saturday afternoon is even better with 6ft SW swell, light SSE cross-offshore wind, and glassy conditions. The energy is still high at 2297, but it’s a beautiful setup.

Sunday, July 12th is the standout. The morning brings a 7ft SW swell (16-second period, 2291 energy) with a clean offshore wind from the east. By the afternoon, it gets glassy – a light NE breeze at 3 mph, near perfect 7ft WSW swell, and the surface is like a mirror. This is the pick of the week. The break is fairly consistent, but with crowds sometimes, it could get a bit busy. For a spot this good, that’s the price you pay.

The surf starts to ease into the new week. Monday, July 13th, still offers 5ft WSW swell with clean cross-offshore winds, but it's smaller. Tuesday, July 14th, is a mix: a glassy 6ft WNW swell in the morning, but the period drops to 8 seconds, which is weak and short for a beach break. The afternoon turns to junk with a 3ft cross-onshore wave.

Mid-week, Wednesday, July 15th, sees a new pulse of 6ft WSW swell (11 seconds) but with a cross-shore wind, so it’s a bit grovelly. A bigger bump comes Thursday, July 16th, with a 10ft WSW swell in the morning, but it’s again too big. The afternoon, however, is glassy and 8ft, which is a solid expert-only session.

The following weekend, July 18th and 19th, brings strong offshore winds (16 to 19 mph from the east) and a clean, 5ft to 6ft WSW swell. The energy is moderate (1124 to 1809), and the period is a solid 14-16 seconds. It’s offshore, so the waves will be clean, but the wind is howling. It’s more of a windy offshore session, and the setup might appeal more to kite surfers than paddle surfers.

The second week is a slow taper. From Monday, July 20th, through to the end, the swell drops to 3ft offshores, with periods hanging around 13-17 seconds. The wind stays strong offshore (12 to 22 mph), so it’s clean but small and wind-affected. The magic is gone. The end of the window, July 25th, has a 4ft SW swell with glassy conditions, which is a nice way to finish – but it’s just a small, clean session.

So, overall: Saturday, July 11th, and Sunday, July 12th, are your best bets. Sunday morning and afternoon are the true standouts for clean, powerful waves. The rest of the week has some good windows for experienced surfers, but the big swells are too big, and the small ones are too blown out.

Rusty.

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