Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Karekare.

Right now, the forecast is a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a solid run of southwest swell pushing through, but for the first few days, the wind is going to be a spoiler. Wednesday and Thursday are looking pretty average with cross-onshore winds making things choppy. The swell is there, around 3 ft to 6 ft from the SW, but it’s not going to be clean. The combined energy is moderate (824 to 1340), so there’s power, but it’s messy.

Friday the 24th is not much better. The wind swings northerly, which is cross-shore, but the swell drops to 4 ft and the period is a short 7 seconds in the afternoon. That’s not going to give you much shape. The combined energy is weak (597 to 828). It’s not a day to get excited about.

Then we hit a real problem. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th see a massive pulse of swell. We’re talking 13 ft to 18 ft from the WSW. The combined energy shoots up to 2165 and even 7935. That’s strong to very strong. But the wind on Saturday is a strong cross-onshore (25 mph), making it a total write-off. Sunday the 26th is a different story – the wind is light, even glassy at times, with a 16-second period groundswell. The combined energy is still huge (7372). But the problem is the size. This is too big for all but the most experienced. Karekare is an exposed beach, and with a long period swell like that, it’s going to dump heavy and straight. This is a day for experts only, and even then, it’s a serious call.

Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th are still big, with 8 ft and 5 ft swells, but the wind is fresh and cross-shore, so the quality is marginal. The combined energy is still moderate to strong (1080 to 2703). Not great.

Now, the real window opens up at the end of the month. From Thursday the 30th of July, things start to clean up. The wind goes light and cross-off to cross-shore, and the swell settles to a nice 5 ft to 6 ft from the WSW with a 14-second period. The combined energy is moderate (899 to 1049). This is where it gets good.

But the real standout is Monday the 2nd of August. The morning is looking prime. Light offshore easterly wind, 5 ft of long-period SW groundswell (16 seconds), and a combined energy of 1280. The conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. That’s a winner. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so you might have some company, but it’s not going to be a circus. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The other standout is Tuesday the 4th of August. The morning is clean with a cross-offshore breeze and a 7 ft swell from the NW. The period is a shorter 9 seconds, so it’s a bit more of a windswell, but it’s a nice size and the combined energy is moderate (1100). It’s also excellent for experienced surfers. If you’re looking for a big, clean day, that’s it.

There’s a gap in quality from the 25th to the 29th, but then it comes back. The best two days are clearly the 2nd and 4th of August. The 31st of July afternoon is also worth a look, with clean cross-offshore wind and a solid 5 ft, 14-second swell.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off thanks to wind and then too much size. The second week, especially the 2nd and 4th of August, are the ones to circle. Get out there.

Rusty.

Read more