Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s coming our way for Karekare.

Right off the bat, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We've got a lot of swell in the window, but it’s going to take a few days before things settle down for a proper paddle. The first few days are all about big, powerful groundswell, but the winds aren't playing nice. The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is about average for the time of year.

For Wednesday the 15th, Karekare sees a solid 6ft swell from the WSW with a very long period of 18 seconds. The energy is strong at 2924. But the wind is a light cross-on, so it's not going to be clean. In the afternoon, it jumps up to 10ft with a 16-second period, and the energy hits 5131. That’s way too much for a beach break, especially with the cross-onshore wind.

Thursday the 16th is more of the same with 10ft swell and 16-second period. The morning has moderate cross-on wind, and the tide and wind might be favorable, but honestly, that size is only for the most experienced, and even then, it's a bit of a beast. The energy remains very strong at 3803.

Friday the 17th sees the swell drop a little to 8ft and 8ft, but the wind swings to the SW and picks up, making things choppy and messy. Not a day to get excited about.

Saturday the 18th is a write-off. 10ft swell, strong cross-on wind at 12-16 mph, and the combined energy is very high again. It’s just poor, blown-out conditions. If you’re into kitesurfing, this setup might be more interesting than paddling out.

Sunday the 19th is a big standout. The swell is still 10ft with a 16-second period from the SW, but the wind turns offshore from the ESE at a light 6 mph in the afternoon. That’s clean, glassy surf. The energy is immense at 5300. This is serious, expert-level territory. The wave will be powerful and heavy, and it’s a long-period groundswell, so it’s going to be walling up. Karekare is fairly consistent, so you can trust it’ll be working, but you have to know what you’re doing. This is the best on offer, full stop.

Monday the 20th is more manageable. 7ft swell from the WSW, 14-second period, and light offshore wind from the E in the morning. Clean conditions and a good drop in size, but it’s still a punchy 7ft+ wave for experienced surfers only. The energy is moderate at 2053.

Tuesday the 21st is still looking good. 6ft swell and 13-second period, with a light offshore wind from the E in the morning. The wind is slight, so it’s near glassy. This is probably the best call for strong intermediates who want a taste of the action. The energy is at a moderate 1049.

From Wednesday the 22nd onwards, the swell backs right off. We’re looking at waves around 3ft to 5ft through to Friday the 24th. The period drops to 12-13 seconds, and the winds are mostly light cross-on or onshore. The energy is low, between 418 and 732. It’s marginal, not really worth a special trip.

Then Saturday the 25th through Monday the 27th sees a return of bigger swell (5ft to 8ft) but with strong, onshore winds. It’s a choppy mess again, with moderate to high energy but poor conditions. Another gap of poor surf.

By Tuesday the 28th, the swell is 7ft to 8ft, but the wind is still onshore and strong. The energy is moderate to high, but it’s blown out.

The real golden window comes back on Wednesday the 29th. We get a 6ft swell with a 12-second period, and the wind is glassy from the NW. The energy is moderate at 1068. That’s excellent surf for experienced crew. Clean, glassy waves. This is the second standout, and it’s only a week and a half away.

After that, Thursday the 30th sees things fade again with 5ft to 5ft swell and light cross-on wind. The energy drops to 516-892.

So, to wrap it up: The best days are Sunday the 19th for expert-level, big, powerful, offshore surf at Karekare. And Wednesday the 29th for a cleaner, more manageable session with glassy conditions. Don't get too excited about the rest.

Rusty.

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