
Surf Forecasts:
Karekare surf forecast from 11 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 12 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 12 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 17s period, WSW swell with 14,143 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 12 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Karekare this week:
The surf forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 4.5m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-onshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Karekare in the next 16 days are 5.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Sat 12th Sep) | 15ft (4.5m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Sat 12th Sep) | 15ft (4.5m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Sat 12th Sep) | 16ft (5.0m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Karekare over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Right then, let's have a look at what's coming down the pipe for Karekare over the next couple of weeks. I've got to be straight with you, it's a bit of a waiting game. There's a massive, powerful swell on the way from the get-go, but the wind is a real bastard for most of it.
We kick off on Friday the 11th of September with a serious, ground-breaking swell. We're looking at a solid 15 ft out of the southwest, with a very long period of 19 seconds. The combined energy is huge, clocking in at 13398. But don't get too excited. The wind is a fresh 19 mph southerly, blowing cross-shore, which is going to tear the place up. It's just too messy to even think about paddling out. There's some rain around, too.
That whole first week is a write-off, to be honest. The swell stays over 13 ft or 12 ft right through until Monday the 14th, but it's blown out by 16-25 mph winds from the south and southwest. The conditions are just ugly. Even though the swell direction is lining up perfectly with what this break likes, the wind is killing it.
There's a glimpse of hope on the morning of Thursday the 17th. The swell has dropped to a more manageable 7 ft from the west-southwest, with a period of 12 seconds. The wind swings around to a light 6 mph north-northeast, giving us a clean cross-offshore breeze. It looks like the best conditions of the whole outlook, but it's only rated as good for experienced surfers. Still, for the persistent locals, that morning could be a real gem. The afternoon gets a bit lumpy, though.
Then, wouldn't you know it, we get a classic Karekare situation. A massive new swell rolls in again on Friday the 18th of September, hitting 10 ft from the southwest with a 15-second period. The wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-shore, and it's just too big for the beach. It feels like this spot is either flat or a washing machine. By Saturday the 19th, we're looking at another 13 ft pulse of southwest swell, with moderate onshore winds. It's just not happening.
If you're a kitesurfer, you might be having the time of your life with these strong winds and big, lumpy swell. But for a paddle surfer, it's a frustrating outlook.
There is another glimmer right at the tail end. On the morning of Thursday the 24th of September, the wind drops to an absolute glassy 3 mph from the west. The swell sits at 8 ft from the west-southwest with a long 17-second period. That's a beautiful, clean setup for a bigger wave. The combined energy is a solid 4140. For the big-wave chargers, that is the standout session in the entire 16-day window. But the window is small, and the swell is still substantial, so it's definitely one for the experienced crew only.
So, there you have it. A few potential windows, but mostly a lot of waiting and watching from the sand. Keep an eye on that Thursday the 17th morning for a clean one, and definitely mark your calendar for the glassy dawn patrol on Thursday the 24th of September.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun morning, min 12°C on Fri morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Fri night, light winds from the SW by Sun night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue morning, min 10°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 18 | WSW 17 | SW 11 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
13398 | 12992 | 13209 | 4005 | 11153 | 10009 | 10400 | 9623 | 6947 | 5268 | 4698 | 3192 | 2633 | 2265 | 1470 | 946 | 563 | 546 | 1106 | 770 | 2171 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 10:00AM3.16m | 10:20PM3.31m | 10:42AM3.22m | 11:00PM3.31m | 11:21AM3.22m | 11:36PM3.25m | 11:56AM3.14m | 00:10AM3.12m | 12:30PM3.02m | 00:41AM2.96m | 1:03PM2.86m | 1:13AM2.75m | 1:37PM2.68m | 1:46AM2.53m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:14PM0.15m | 4:39AM0.06m | 4:55PM0.14m | 5:17AM0.08m | 5:32PM0.21m | 5:54AM0.17m | 6:09PM0.33m | 6:28AM0.31m | 6:43PM0.50m | 7:02AM0.49m | 7:17PM0.68m | 7:35AM0.67m | 7:53PM0.87m | ||||||||
6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | |
— | 6:08 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:14 | — | |
mm | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
Feels °C | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 18 | — | WSW 16 | — | SW 16 | — | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 |
13398 | 12992 | — | 3463 | — | 10009 | — | 9623 | 6947 | 5268 | 4698 | 3192 | 2633 | 2265 | 1470 | 946 | 563 | 546 | 1106 | 770 | 2171 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 18 | WSW 18 | — | WSW 16 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 32 | 31 | — | 589 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | WSW 17 | SW 11 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 6 | — | — | — | — |
— | — | 13209 | 4005 | 11153 | 8586 | 10400 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 43 | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 48 | 120 | 90 | 168 | 108 | 123 | 90 | 144 | 222 | 147 | 144 | 222 | 132 | 144 | 147 | 172 | 335 | 14 | 0 | 127 | 77 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Auckland | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Karekare Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Karekare provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Karekare can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Karekare surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Karekare) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Karekare may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Karekare is 14 km (9 miles) from the city of Auckland. If you plan a holiday in Auckland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Auckland. Auckland has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










