Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Karekare over the next couple of weeks. I won't lie to you, the start of this run is a bit of a write-off. We're looking at a solid, powerful swell, but the wind is a classic New Zealand cross-onshore for days on end, just wrecking any chance of clean waves. The water temp is sitting at 59°F, which is about average for this time of year – no nasty surprises there.

From now through until the 16th of September, it’s pretty grim. The swell is pumping, with combined wave energy readings well into the thousands – we're talking 7824 on Saturday morning and 10400 on Sunday – but it’s all for nothing with that 22-19 mph cross-onshore wind. It’s lumpy, messy, and just not worth paddling out for. You’d be better off watching the whitewash from the sand.

Things start to look a little more promising, but it's a slow burn. On the 17th and 18th, the wind finally starts to turn in our favour. On the morning of the 18th, we get a crisp cross-offshore wind from the Southeast, and the swell is hanging around 10 ft from the Southwest with a very long 17 second period. The wave energy is still massive at 5603. Now, that is a big, powerful groundswell. For a beach like Karekare, a 10 ft SW swell at 17 seconds is going to be a heavy, bowling wall. This is expert territory only. The same goes for the afternoon with an offshore breeze – it's going to look perfect on the surface, but it will be a serious handful. The 19th and 20th see the wind get a bit messy again, but the 21st of September is another day with that strong SW groundswell and a cross-shore wind – again, big and powerful.

But honestly, the real standout, the one you want to circle on your calendar, is the 26th of September. It’s still a week and a half out, so hold it loosely, but the models are whispering something special. We’ve got an 8 ft swell from the West-Southwest, a period of 14 seconds, and the wind is going to be light offshore from the East-Northeast in the morning, going glassy. The wave energy is 3895. "Excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers" – that’s exactly what the data says. That morning session is going to have clean, lined-up waves with minimal crowd for the early birds. The afternoon holds with a light cross-offshore breeze, so you’ll get a good day’s paddle in.

A quick heads up for the 27th of September. The swell is back up to 10 ft from the West-Southwest with a very long 18 second period, and offshore winds again. That's another big, freight-train groundswell day. If you are a competent charger on a step-up, that Sunday morning could be the highlight of the entire run. It’s a monster, so only for the brave.

Rusty

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