Karekare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what we've got coming down the pipe for Karekare.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you. This 16-day window is a real mixed bag, and for the most part, it’s going to be a waiting game. We've got some proper, serious sized swell on the way, but the wind and conditions are going to be the big story. We’re looking at a stretch of the best part of a week with very little to get excited about, so patience is key.

The water temp at Karekare is sitting around 58°, which is pretty much what you'd expect for this time of year. Nothing out of the ordinary there.

The first real standout, and honestly the only true highlight in the near term, is Wednesday the 9th of September. That morning, the wind drops out completely, going glassy. The swell is a clean 5ft from the SW with a solid 12-second period. The combined energy is sitting at a moderate 919, but with the glassy conditions, this is going to be the cleanest the waves will look for a while. The offshore wind from ENE is perfect. This is a morning for the longboard or a mid-length, just out there enjoying the calm.

After that, the wind turns onshore again and stays messy. The swell keeps coming, but it’s choppy and lumpy. It’s a write-off until we get to the following week.

Now, for the more experienced and brave among you, there's some serious, heavy water on the horizon. We’ve got a major pulse coming through from Friday the 11th of September. That morning, the combined swell energy hits a massive 20286, with a 16ft swell from the WSW at an 18-second period from a groundswell. That is a lot of water moving. By Saturday the 12th, we’re looking at 21ft to 25ft swells from the WSW. This is expert-only territory. It’s way over 8ft. The cross-onshore winds will make it a wild, messy beast. Honestly, if you’re not on a rescue craft, this is more of a show than a go.

That big energy sticks around for a few days, dropping back into the 12ft to 16ft range the following week, but the wind remains a problem. We get a slight reprieve on Friday the 18th of September afternoon. The swell is 12ft from the WSW with a 15-second period, and the wind eases to a light breeze from the SSW, creating a light cross-shore. The combined energy is a strong 6611. This is a much more manageable window if you’ve got the skills to handle a big, powerful swell.

So, to sum it up: don't bother until Wednesday the 9th of September for the clean small stuff. After that, it’s a waiting game for the big swell to drop and the wind to cooperate, with Friday the 18th of September afternoon being the best bet for the bigger wave crew.

Stay safe out there.

- Rusty

Read more