Jarosite Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your board. This is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next couple of weeks for us here at Jarosite Reef. We’ve got a solid run of surf coming, but it’s a bit of a mixed bag, so you’ve got to pick your moments.

The pattern starts with a pulse of strong, long-period groundswell right off the bat. On Thursday the 16th, we’ve got a meaty 6ft swell from the SSW with a 15-second period, which packs a serious punch—the combined energy is a hefty 1692. But the wind is a cross-shore breeze, so it’s not going to be perfect. It’s a bit of a battle, but there’s power there for the experienced crew. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

The real standout comes on Friday the 17th. The swell drops just a touch to 5ft, still from the SW, but the period stretches to a very long 16 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell. The wind swings offshore from the NNW in the morning, and by the afternoon it goes glassy. This is the best window of the whole forecast. The energy is still strong at 1368, and it’s going to be clean, lined up, and just about perfect for an advanced surfer on a reef setup. This is your day.

Saturday the 18th sees the swell drop to 3ft, but the wind is offshore again in the morning and glassy in the afternoon. It’s a fun, mellow option for the less experienced, but the energy is down to 382. Not a standout, but a nice recovery session.

From Sunday the 19th all the way through to Wednesday the 23rd, the swell is small and weak—mostly under 3ft, with energy barely cracking 300. The wind is often offshore, so it’s clean, but the waves are tiny and ordinary. It’s a gap of about four days where you’re not going to find much to write home about.

Then, things start to build again. Thursday the 23rd afternoon brings a bump to 5ft with a 14-second period and 976 energy, but the wind is a moderate cross-offshore breeze. It’s clean but not perfect. Friday the 24th is a better call: 6ft from the SSW, 15-second period, and a lighter wind in the afternoon. The energy is back up to 1095, and it’s a solid, clean wave for experienced surfers.

Now, the long-range stuff. Looking way out to Thursday the 30th, we’ve got a big spike in the forecast—an 12ft swell from the SW, but with a 12-second period and a strong cross-offshore wind. That’s a lot of water moving, and the energy is a massive 4159. This is only for the very experienced, and it could be a bit unruly.

The absolute biggest number, though, comes on Friday the 31st. We’re looking at a 13ft swell from the SW with a 16-second period, and the combined energy is a wild 10859. That’s a monster swell, but the wind is cross-onshore, so it’s going to be choppy and messy. It’s a powerful, dangerous day for experts only, and honestly, not a great bet for a clean surf.

If you’re looking for the one true standout, it’s Friday the 17th. That’s the day the stars align: solid groundswell, offshore wind, and glassy conditions on a reef. Get it while it’s good.

Stay safe out there.

- Rusty

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