Avalon Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s heading our way over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a slow burner, but there are some absolute gems hidden in there if you’re patient and choose your windows wisely.

The first few days are a write-off, no doubt about it. Saturday the 5th is a total mess – rain showers and a nasty cross-on wind will make Avalon Point a lumpy, choppy mess. You won’t catch me out there. After that, things clean up quickly, and we’ve got a solid run of quality surf starting Sunday the 6th and running right through to Wednesday the 16th. There’s a big lump of westerly groundswell in the mix, and with the wind swinging offshore from the ESE, this point break is going to fire. The standout period is hands down Monday the 7th through to Wednesday the 16th. That’s where the magic is. Keep in mind, after around Thursday the 17th, the wind turns onshore and things get ugly again for a few days, bookended by some real monster swells on the 19th that will be too blown out to enjoy.

The Best of It:

For the experienced crew, Monday the 7th is your day. Avalon Point is looking at a solid 8 ft of WSW groundswell rolling in, and the period is a long 17 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy with heaps of power. That means long, clean lines at this point break. The wind is light offshore from the ESE all day, which will make the faces glassy and perfect. The combined energy is pumping at (3123) – there’s serious weight in the water. If you’re an intermediate to expert surfer, this is the absolute pinnacle of the run. Tuesday the 8th isn’t far behind either, with 8 ft waves and the same quality offshore flow, keeping it clean and lined up all day. Light offshore wind trumps everything, and we’ve got it in spades here.

The Honest Truth:

Now, let’s be real. This is big swell for a point break. With the swell sitting between 7 ft and 8 ft for several days, this isn’t beginner territory. Anything over 8 ft, like on Tuesday the 8th, only suits strong, experienced surfers. The offshore wind will hold it open, but it’ll have some push. Also, crowds are listed as ‘often’ here, so expect a few locals out for the good ones. It’s a fairly consistent spot, so don’t think you’ll have it to yourself. The water temp is sitting around 64°F, which is pretty much par for the course at this time of year, nothing out of the ordinary there.

After the 9th, the swell drops off a cliff into the 4 ft – 6 ft range, and the wind swings NE, turning it cross-off. It’s still surfable, clean, and rideable, but it’s not the same beast as early in the week. By the time we get to the 13th, the wind is back on it, and the 14th to 16th offers a final last hurrah with that ENE offshore flow on the 14th morning and 8 ft swell, before a real glassy morning on Wednesday the 16th – 6 ft of clean, glassy point surf. That glassy day on the 16th is your sneaky pick if you missed the main event.

After that, the 17th through to the 20th is a complete mess again with strong onshore winds and massive, blown-out waves. On the 19th, we’ve got 12 ft of swell with a combined energy (5938), but it’s coming straight onshore. That’s a windsurfing or kite-surfing session, not a paddle day.

In summary: Do not bother paddling out until Sunday the 6th afternoon. Your best windows are Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th for standout quality. Wednesday the 16th for a glassy, mellow alternative. After that, you’re waiting until the new week for something to potentially clean up.

Rusty.

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