Avalon Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Avalon Point.

The next couple of weeks are a proper mixed bag, with a lot of wind and size to deal with before we get any real quality. The first few days are a write-off, but if you’re patient and hungry, there’s a run of clean, solid surf in the second week that’s worth circling on the calendar.

Right now, from Thursday the 6th through to the end of the weekend on the 9th, it’s all about survival, not style. We’ve got a big, powerful, long-period groundswell from the WSW, pushing 8 ft to 15 ft, with combined wave energy readings from 3563 right up to 10653. That’s a lot of juice. But the wind is a mess – howling out of the west and southwest, hitting 15 to 31 mph, mostly cross or cross-onshore. The conditions are blown out, lumpy, and just plain ugly. Saturday the 8th is a full-on near gale. This is a pass for any sane surfer. Sunday morning the 9th sees the wind drop to nothing, but it’s still cross-on, and the swell is still a chunky 11 ft – only a 4 out of 10 on the scale, so it’s marginal at best.

Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th stay big and windy. Monday is a total loss with a near gale, but Tuesday the 11th is where things start to shift. The wind turns clean, cross-off, and we’ve got a massive 16 ft WSW swell with a 17-second period – the combined energy is a staggering 15592. That’s a lot of power. It’s still a big, expert-only wave, but the wind is clean, and the potential is there for a very serious session if you’ve got the skill and the nerve. The score is a 7. That’s the pick of the second week for the real heavy hitters.

Wednesday the 12th sees the swell drop to a more manageable 8 ft, but the wind goes messy again with a cross-shore chop. Not great.

Now, here’s the real standout. From Thursday the 13th to Friday the 14th, we get a window of pure magic. The swell drops to a clean, long-period 6 ft to 7 ft from the WSW, periods of 14 to 18 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (1815 to 2552). But the wind – oh, the wind. It’s light offshore from the SE on Thursday morning, going glassy by Friday afternoon. The forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is the one. The glassy, clean conditions paired with a solid, long-period groundswell at a point break like Avalon will produce some beautifully shaped, lined-up waves. The water temp is about 66°F, which is dead average for this time of year.

Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th see a bit of a wind spike and a drop in quality, but the swell stays around 5 ft to 10 ft. Monday the 17th afternoon is another serious possibility. The wind goes glassy, and we get a 11 ft, 16-second W swell. The combined energy is 6466, and it’s clean. That’s a good, powerful wave with no wind. Expert territory.

The last few days from the 18th to the 21st fade out with more onshore wind and messy conditions, though Friday the 21st afternoon shows a moderate offshore wind from the ESE and a 8 ft, 16-second WSW swell – another clean, solid option for the end of the run.

The call: If you’re a strong surfer, Tuesday the 11th is the heavy-swell standout – massive, clean, and powerful. But for the best overall quality, you’re looking at Thursday 13th through Friday 14th. That’s the window for the most beautiful, clean, glassy waves at a solid 6 to 7 ft. Don’t bother with the first week unless you’re a masochist. Crowds at Avalon are often an issue, but with the size and conditions, you might have it more to yourself than usual.

Rusty.

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