Avalon Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, grab the coffee, it's me, Rusty. Looking sixteen days out at Avalon Point and, mate, it's a proper mixed bag. We've got plenty of size coming through but the wind is going to play a huge part in whether it's actually any good for a paddle. The swell will be hitting from the WSW, which is the direction this point likes to see, so the potential is absolutely there. Combined swell energy is strong to very strong through most of it, with values sitting in the four digits (1718) on the first morning. Water temp here is about average for the time of year.

The whole shebang kicks off on Tuesday, the 1st of September. Tuesday morning is your standout for the whole outlook, no question. Avalon Point is cleaning up with a solid 6 ft of WSW swell, period of 16 seconds which is a long period groundswell. But the key is that glassy wind from the SSE at just 5 km/h. It's clean as a whistle and the combined swell energy is pumping at a strong 1718. The surf is excellent for experienced surfers, but don't let the word "experienced" scare you off the size – it's a clean 6 ft, which is fine for most. By Tuesday afternoon the wind swings and gets messy, so the morning session is the one.

Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd are write-offs. The wind gets onshore and cranks up, turning a decent 7 ft to 8 ft swell into absolute chop. Not worth the paddle. Same story through Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th – huge swell, 10 ft to 15 ft, but it's getting hammered by onshore gales. You'd need a death wish or a kiteboard for that. The combined swell energy is hitting 6305 on Friday arvo, but it's cross-onshore and messy.

We get a little reprieve on Sunday the 6th. The morning is glassy again with a SSW breeze, and there's a solid 10 ft of WSW swell (period 13 seconds, combined energy 3394). It's excellent for experienced surfers, but 10 ft is getting big and starting to push into only-for-experts territory for a beach break, though this is a point break. Monday the 7th morning is the next real beauty. Flat calm, glassy, with an 8 ft groundswell at a very long 17 second period. Combined energy is 3965 – that's heavy, powerful, clean water. The sets will be long but you won't be fighting the wind. Another top pick.

Tuesday the 8th morning is also glassy with 8 ft swell, but then the wind changes again. The pattern after that is messy, with onshore winds and huge, raw swell rolling through the second week.

From Wednesday the 9th onwards, the window gets patchy. The 13th of September, Sunday morning, looks promising again. Clear skies, a light cross-offshore SE breeze at 10 km/h, and a solid 8 ft of groundswell (period 14 seconds, combined energy 2171). Clean and excellent for experienced surfers. That's a solid session.

The final few days drop off in size. Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th have smaller 5 ft swell, but they're clean in the mornings with cross-offshore winds. It's not the big stuff, but combined swell energy is only moderate at 645 and 879, so it's much weaker. The point might be a bit inconsistent on those days. The 16th of September is a back-off, with cross-onshore wind ruining the 5 ft of swell.

So, boil it down: Tuesday the 1st morning is your absolute number one pick. Monday the 7th morning is a close second. Both are glassy, clean, and have plenty of power. The mornings on Sunday the 6th and Sunday the 13th are also worth an early alarm. Everything else is either too blown out or too small and weak. Get in while the wind is your friend.

- Rusty

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