Avalon Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s chew the fat on what’s coming up for Avalon Point.

First off, the water is sitting at 66° right now, which is about bang on average for this time of year. No surprises there.

The next 16 days are a bit of a rollercoaster. It kicks off with some serious size, but the wind is a problem. We’ve got a strong, long-period WSW groundswell (period 16 seconds) and a lot of energy behind it – the combined energy is reading 3668 (moderate) and then jumps to 4543 (moderate) that first afternoon. But the pesky NNW wind is cross-on, so the waves will be a bit bumpy and messy. The swell is already 8 ft to 10 ft, which is getting into the "too big for beginners" territory, and the quality is described as "marginal" or "poor" through the first week. The wind picks up heavily from the 8th of August, with a massive 16 ft swell and a near gale wind, making it a total, messy write-off. That’s more of a kite-surfing dream than a paddler’s paradise.

Honestly, there’s a big gap in reasonable surf for about the first week and a half. The wind just won't play ball.

Now, the standout. The real window of opportunity opens up on Tuesday, 11th of August - morning. The wind will go glassy, with a light S breeze at just 3 mph, and the swell is still a solid 12 ft from the WSW with a very long period of 16 seconds (groundswell). The combined energy is a strong 5300 (strong). This is a proper, powerful groundswell. At a point break like Avalon, that long period will produce some beautifully shaped, long lines. The only catch is that 12 ft is big, grizzly stuff – this is for experienced surfers only. The crowd situation is noted as "often" busy, so expect plenty of company out there.

The next morning, Wednesday, 12th of August, is also glassy with a light E breeze. The swell drops back to a more manageable 8 ft, still with that long 16-second period, but the energy is lower (2588 - moderate). It’s a great option for a slightly less intense session, but still a powerful wave.

If you’re looking further out, Thursday, 13th of August - morning also looks promising with glassy conditions and a 8 ft swell from the WSW, but the period is a staggering 19 seconds. That’s very long period. The energy is strong (4918). It’s a classic groundswell scenario for the point, but be aware that such a long period can make the sets a bit more irregular and the lulls longer. Fine for a point break, though.

The second week sees the swell dip and then come back up, but the wind is unreliable. The 17th of August has a big 15 ft to 13 ft swell, but it’s choppy and cross-shore. The 19th is a write-off with strong winds.

So, in summary: if you’re an experienced surfer, circle Tuesday, 11th of August morning and Wednesday, 12th of August morning on your calendar. That’s the best of the bunch. The rest is a mix of either too windy, too big, or just average.

Rusty.

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