Ensenada Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Ensenada’s got cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.

Alright, to be straight with you, the first week or so is a bit of a struggle. The wind’s pretty much stuck in a cross-on pattern, and the wave quality is just not there. The real standout window won’t arrive until the very end of the forecast, and even that’s a bit of a long-range hope.

Now, for the rest of the period...

The first real surfable day isn’t until Tuesday, the 11th of August. We’ve got a 4ft swell from the SW, with a period of 15 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, so it’ll have some grunt to it, but the wind is a light cross-on from the SW. The combined swell energy is strong, at 1109, but the waves are going to be a bit messy with that wind. The water is a very warm 70°, which is *much* warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a real treat.

That pattern sticks around for the next few days. The swell stays between 4ft and 5ft, mostly from the SW, with some solid periods (13-18 seconds), but the wind stays cross-on or cross. It’s just not clean enough for a top-notch session. The combined energy is moderate to strong, but the quality is missing.

We get a bit of a look on Friday, the 14th of August. The morning shows a 5ft SW swell with a 16-second period, still a cross-on wind, but the score is a 2 out of 10. The combined energy is strong, at 1104. It’s the best of a bad bunch, but it’s still marginal.

The weekend – Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th – is a write-off. The wind picks up, and the swell gets smaller. The combined energy drops, and the conditions are just poor.

Then Monday the 17th brings a bit of a change. The swell jumps to 7ft from the S, but with a short, weak period of only 8 seconds. This is a windswell. The wind is a moderate cross. The combined energy is moderate (995). This is more of a choppy, messy affair, and for a beach setup, it’s not looking great for a paddle. You might see some kite surfers having fun.

Tuesday the 18th is a no-go with poor surf conditions and a 7ft S swell with a short period. The wind is onshore and choppy.

The Highlight (with a big caveat)

The best-looking surf in the whole 16-day window is actually way out on Wednesday the 26th of August. That’s over a week away, so don’t bet the farm on it. The morning shows a 4ft SSW swell with a very long 14-second period, and the wind is forecast to be light and *offshore* from the SW. The combined energy is a massive 1238. That’s a lot of energy for a 4ft wave, which means it’ll be a very clean, powerful, long-period groundswell. For a point break, that could be magic. But it’s a long-range call, so keep an eye on it.

The afternoon of the 26th holds the same swell size and period, but the wind shifts to a light cross-on, so the morning is the clear winner.

The Wrap

Ensenada is not offering much for the first week. It’s a classic case of waiting for the right conditions. The water is warm, but the wind is the enemy. The 26th of August is a glimmer of hope, but it’s a long way off. Keep your hopes up, but don’t cancel your plans just yet.

Rusty.

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