Ensenada Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Ensenada.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this forecast is a tough one. We’ve got a long stretch of marginal conditions ahead, with the first few days really just a write-off for any kind of decent surf. The water’s sitting at a balmy 68.7°F, which is a massive 7°F warmer than average for this time of year – that’s very unusual, feels more like a bath than the Pacific.

The first proper look we get isn’t until Thursday, September 4th. Through the morning and afternoon, we’re seeing a 5.6ft swell from the SW with moderate wave energy (1483) pushing through. Problem is, the wind is blowing cross-onshore from the SSW at 6 mph, keeping things a bit messy. It’s a marginal call, but if you’re desperate, that Thursday morning is your best bet in this early window. The swell period is around 16 seconds, which is a proper groundswell – that kind of long period will wrap better around the point at Ensenada (beach and point), giving it some shape despite the wind.

Honestly, the standout of the whole run looks like Saturday, September 6th in the morning. We’ve got a 3.6ft SW swell with a very long period of 19 seconds and the energy is still solid at 809. The wind is light cross-onshore from the SSW at 6 mph. For a point break, that long-period groundswell will really shine, offering clean, lined-up waves with longer lulls between sets. It’s not big, but the quality should be there. Crowds are sometimes a factor, so get in early.

After that, the swell drops off and the period shortens. By Thursday, September 11th, we get a pulse of 5.9ft swell from the SSW, but the period is a weak 8 seconds – that’s just windswell, sloppy and onshore. The wind stays cross-on, and the energy (716) is moderate but the quality is poor. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

For the second week, from around September 12th onward, the trend is smaller and weaker. A 3.9ft S swell on Sunday, September 14th with a period of 9 seconds (315 energy) is about as good as it gets, but the wind is still cross-onshore. Nothing clean or exciting. The last few days of the run drop down to 3ft with poor conditions.

So, if you’re looking for the one session to paddle for, aim for Saturday, September 6th morning. That’s the only window where the long-period groundswell and light wind might give you something worth the drive.

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