Ensenada Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again, this time in feet and miles. Let's break down what we've got.

Honestly, it's a frustrating run overall. We've got a long stretch of poor conditions ahead before anything decent shows up. The water's sitting at a balmy 71°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, a real standout in the data.

The pattern starts off pretty grim. From Wednesday the 29th through to the end of the first week, it’s a write-off. The wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore, and the combined wave energy is weak, sitting in the hundreds. The swell is from the southwest, but the quality is just not there, and conditions are described as poor or marginal. You're looking at a solid stretch of over a week with nothing worthwhile to recommend.

Then, things start to look a bit more promising as we head into the second week. Thursday the 6th of August sees a jump in size and energy—we're looking at 5ft to just over 5ft swell from the southwest with a long period of 16 to 17 seconds. That's groundswell. The combined energy climbs into four-digit territory at around 1649. That’s moderate to strong energy. The wind is light and onshore, so it's not clean, but the energy is there. It’s still classed as marginal due to conditions, but this is the first real pulse we've seen.

The standout, and the best option on offer in the whole run, is Tuesday the 11th of August, morning session at Ensenada. It’s a small day, only about 2ft from the southwest, but the period is a very long 17 seconds. That’s proper groundswell with loads of energy behind it. The real kicker here is the wind—it’s glassy. Dead calm. That means the surface will be like a mirror. For a point break like Ensenada, that long-period swell wrapping in will give you some clean, lined-up waves. It’s inconsistent and only for the advanced crew, but if you can pick off a few, it’ll be worth it. The combined energy is low, around 456, but the quality of the conditions makes up for it.

For the rest of the second week, we see more southwest swell, but the wind comes back onshore or cross-onshore, spoiling the party. There are a few moments on Monday the 10th and Thursday the 13th of August where the swell height picks up to a little over 4ft with moderate energy in the 800-1000 range, but the cross-onshore breeze will chop it up.

So, the call is this: don't get your hopes up for the first 10 days. Keep an eye on that Tuesday the 11th morning. If the glass-off holds, that’s your window. It’s a long-range call, so a bit uncertain, but it’s the only real light in the tunnel.

Rusty.

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