Ensenada Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Ensenada over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I gotta be straight with you – this outlook is a bit of a rough one for the paddle crew. The whole 16-day window is filled with marginal surf at best, with plenty of days where conditions just don't line up for a good session. The first real recommendation doesn't even pop up until Thursday afternoon, the 3rd of September.

The strongest swell energy we see is on Thursday afternoon, with a decent 5ft SW groundswell packing a serious punch – the combined energy is a solid 1194 (moderate wave energy). The water is a balmy 69°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so you'll be comfy in a shorty. However, the wind is coming from the SSW at 6 mph, making it a cross-on breeze, which puts a bit of a chop on the face. It’s surfable, but not clean.

Friday morning, the 4th, bumps up a touch to 6ft from the SW, with a 16-second period (very long period groundswell) and the combined energy jumps to 1465. That’s the most powerful pulse of the whole forecast. The thing is, we’re still dealing with that cross-on wind. At Ensenada, which is a beach and point setup, that long-period swell might run a bit straight on the beach, but it could offer some better lines off the point if the wind cooperates. It’s the best on offer, but it’s still a “marginal” call.

After that, the swell drops and the conditions get more mixed. By Saturday morning, the 5th, we get a brief window of offshore wind from the SW at 6 mph with a 5ft swell, which could clean things up nicely for a short while, but it’s still rated as marginal.

From Sunday the 6th onward, the swell size drops below 5ft, and while the period holds up in the 13-17 second range, the cross-on or cross-shore winds keep things from getting truly good. By the second week, from the 11th of September onwards, the swell period drops to a weak 8 seconds, and the energy levels fall off a cliff. The combined energy readings drop to between 292 and 661, which is weak to low-moderate energy. The wave state is consistently described as “poor,” and the scores reflect that.

So, what’s the call? The standout session is Friday morning, September 4th. The swell is 6ft from the SW, period of 16 seconds, and the combined energy is 1465. It’s the biggest, most powerful groundswell of the window. It’s an advanced-level wave, so if you’re not comfortable in powerful, long-period swell, sit this one out. The wind is a light cross-on, so it won’t be glassy, but it’s the best combination of size and energy we’ve got.

If you’re looking for a backup, the Saturday morning, September 5th, has a brief offshore wind with a 5ft SW swell, which could offer a few clean waves before the wind swings.

Overall, this is a period for the dedicated and the patient. There’s no real classic, clean, all-day session here. If you can get out early Friday, that’s your best bet. For the rest of us, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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