El Cardon Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on offer.

Honestly, it’s a quiet stretch ahead. We’ve got a solid 16-day window, but there’s nothing that screams "drop everything and go." The first couple of weeks are looking pretty average, with a lot of messy, cross-onshore wind and small, weak swell. The real standout, if you can call it that, is right at the very end of the run.

Let’s start with El Cardon (point break). It’s an exposed point that wants a W swell, but we’re mostly seeing small SW groundswell coming through with periods that are all over the shop. The water temp is sitting at 79°, which is a massive 9° warmer than normal for this time of year – seriously warm, like bathwater. The wave energy is weak to moderate, with values in the 170s to 380s, and the swell height is tiny, mostly between 2ft and 4ft. The wind is a problem. It’s almost always cross-onshore, from the S, W, or WNW, and that’s making for chop and small wind ripples. The surf quality is poor, with scores in the gutter. The best bet in the first week might be Wednesday morning the 9th, with a clean 2ft SW swell, a 16-second period, and light offshore wind from the SW. That’s easily the cleanest of the bunch, but the swell is tiny. Through the rest of the first week and into the second, it’s mostly cross-onshore wind and small, gutless waves.

Moving into the second week, things get a little more interesting from a wave energy perspective, but the wind stays a problem. The early mornings on the 18th, 19th, and 20th of September all show light offshore winds from the WSW, with a 2ft to 2ft SW swell. The periods on these are long, 18 to 19 seconds, which is proper groundswell energy. The combined energy climbs into the 300s and 400s (moderate wave energy), but the swell height is still tiny. For a point break, that long period with small swell could mean some lined-up, fun little waves for a log or a fish, but it’s not going to be a classic.

The single best on offer, if you’re patient, is the morning of Sunday, 20th September. The wind is light offshore from the WSW, a 2ft SW swell, with a 19-second period. The combined energy here is 474, the highest in the whole run. That’s moderate energy, but for a point break with that long period, it could be the most lined-up and cleanest session of the whole forecast. It’s still small, but it’s the only time the numbers line up nicely. The afternoon falls apart with cross-onshore wind, so it’s a morning mission. Crowds are possible here, so get in early.

The rest of the run after that is more of the same: small, choppy, and not worth getting excited about. The 23rd shows some cross-shore wind, which is just as bad.

So, to sum it up: the whole 16 days is a tough call. There’s no real size, and the wind is mostly wrong. The standout is the morning of the 20th of September at El Cardon, with clean offshore wind and a long-period groundswell. It’s still small, but it’s the best you’re going to get. Don’t hold your breath for the rest.

- Rusty

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