El Cardon Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's chew the fat on this one.

It’s a grim run for El Cardon. The ocean is trying to send us swell, but the wind is throwing a tantrum. The water is a whopping 7°F warmer than usual for the time of year, so that's a notable change.

We start on Saturday, August 29th. There's a 3ft swell from the SW with a long 16-second period, bringing in 542 units of energy. But the wind is cross-onshore, and the report says poor surf conditions. Leave the board on the car.

From Sunday the 30th right through the first week of September, it’s the same tune. Swell hangs between 2ft and 3ft, with the occasional bigger pulse, but the wind is always cross-on or onshore from the WNW or SSW. The reports keep saying "poor" or "marginal." For a point break that needs an offshore breeze to groom the waves, this cross-on chop is just ugly.

Maybe, *maybe*, on Wednesday, September 2nd morning, there's a 3ft SW swell (339) with a light WSW onshore wind. It’s flagged as marginal, but the wind state is unknown, which sometimes means glassy. It's a long shot.

The pick of a bad bunch looks like Thursday, September 3rd afternoon. A 3ft swell from the SW with a very long 18-second period (624). The wind is light cross-onshore, so there will be a few bumps, but that long-period groundswell is beautiful. That period will wrap into the point nicely and give it some proper shape. It's not clean, but it's the closest you'll get.

After that, from the 4th of September onward, the pattern is stuck on repeat. Small to moderate swell, cross-onshore wind, low scores. Friday, September 4th morning has a 3ft, 17-second SW swell (638), but it's again hampered by a light cross-onshore. The energy is there, the quality is not. We are looking at a solid stretch of over a week with nothing to get excited about.

The One to Aim For

If you're getting wet, make it Thursday, September 3rd afternoon. That 18-second SW groundswell is the standout feature of the whole forecast. It will offer the most shape and power of the run. Just put up with the light wind bumps.

Beyond that, there’s a big gap. The swell energy is moderate, often in the 500-600 range, but it’s all for nothing with the wind. El Cardon needs that offshore wind to work its magic, and we’re just not getting it in this window.

Rusty.

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