El Cardon Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's break down what we're looking at for the next couple of weeks down at El Cardon. It’s a point break, which can be a gem when it lines up, but honestly, this outlook is a bit of a tough one for us paddle surfers.

The water is running at a very unusual 75°, sitting more than three degrees warmer than average for this time of year. That’s a real standout for the whole period.

The first week is a write-off for any kind of decent surf. From Sunday the 23rd through to Saturday the 29th, every session is marked by poor conditions. We're looking at tiny swell, mostly around 1ft to 2ft, with a long period around 16 to 18 seconds. That long period from the SW will just wrap too straight across this point, offering no real shape. The wind is consistently cross-onshore, chopping everything up. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate – with values like 198 and 232 – basically just enough to get you wet, not enough to get you riding. There’s a real gap here of about six days with nothing to recommend.

Now, things start to get a little more interesting as we head into the second week. Saturday the 29th afternoon shows a bump to 3ft from the SW, with a solid 16-second period and the combined energy jumps to 517 (moderate energy). Still, the wind is light and cross-onshore, keeping it marginal. Sunday the 30th morning drops back to 3ft with a 14-second period and only 307 energy. Still not worth paddling out for.

But keep your eye on Thursday the 3rd of September. We’ve got a proper-looking groundswell pushing through. The morning brings 3ft from the SW with a very long period of 19 seconds and combined energy of 583. The wind is light and directly offshore (SW). That is the cleanest window in the whole run. The afternoon holds similar size at 3ft, still SW and 19 seconds, energy bumps up to 694, and the wind goes light cross-shore. For El Cardon, a long-period SW groundswell with light airs is as good as it gets.

Friday the 4th of September afternoon is also a standout. We’ve got 3ft from the SW, 17-second period, with a gentle cross-offshore wind from the ESE. That’s the only "clean" session listed, with combined energy at 615. The wind will groom the face and the swell should wrap in nicely with a bit of push.

Further out, Sunday morning the 6th of September shows a bigger pulse of 6ft from the SSW, but with a shorter 12-second period and light cross-onshore wind. That’s expert territory for the size, but the shorter period and onshore wind will make it sloppy, so it’s a pass.

Honestly, for the next 16 days, the only real windows to get excited about are Thursday the 3rd and Friday the 4th of September. The rest of the time, you’re better off waiting.

Stay salty.
Rusty.

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