Surf Forecasts:
El Cardon surf forecast from 15 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 17 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 7s period, WNW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 15 Aug, 5AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 16s period, SW swell with 432 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 15 Aug, 11PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for El Cardon this week:
The surf forecast for El Cardon over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 11PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 1.2m and 6s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at El Cardon in the next 16 days are 0.9m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (PDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 11PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 3ft (0.9m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 5AM (Mon 17th Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 7s |
| Most Powerful | 5AM (Sat 15th Aug) | 3ft (0.9m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for El Cardon over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at the coming swell window. To be straight with you, it’s a pretty frustrating stretch for El Cardon. We’ve got a consistent run of swell on the way, but the wind just won’t play ball for most of it, keeping the waves chopped up and messy. Don’t get your hopes up too high.
We kick off on Friday the 14th of August with some small swell rolling in, about 2ft from the SW with a long 18-second period. That long period is nice for it having some push, but the wind is a cross-onshore W/NW breeze at 15 mph, and the water is a very unusual 73°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year. The energy is moderate at 443, but it’s just not clean. That sets the tone for the whole first week, really. The swell stays small, between 1ft and 3ft, and every session gets hit by a cross-onshore wind, making for choppy, poor conditions. Saturday the 15th, Sunday the 16th, all the way through the week, it’s the same story.
There is a little glimmer of hope on Wednesday morning the 19th of August, and again on Tuesday morning the 25th of August. On the 25th, we see a jump in swell to 3ft from the SSW with a 16-second period, and the combined energy ramps up to a strong 567. The wind is a light offshore from the SW at 6 mph. While it’s still considered marginal at best, that light offshore wind in the morning is the best chance we get for something remotely rideable. The swell direction (SSW) isn’t a perfect match for the optimum W, but it’s better than nothing.
Look, after that, the pattern just repeats. A bit more size shows up around the 26th and 27th of August, with swell pushing 4ft from the SSW and SW, and the energy gets very strong, hitting 766. The problem is, every afternoon gets ruined by another moderate cross-onshore wind, and even the mornings are mostly cross-onshore. The light offshore mornings are few and far between.
Honestly, there’s no standout session here. It’s a long stretch of poor surf quality. The best advice I can give is to keep an eye on those late August mornings when the wind swings light offshore. If you’re desperate, that’s your window. But as a whole, this is a tough one to recommend.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Warm (max 25°C on Sun afternoon, min 19°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 26°C on Wed morning, min 20°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | SW 14 | WNW 7 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 386 | 367 | 362 | 358 | 251 | 214 | 278 | 198 | 162 | 149 | 132 | 169 | 186 | 196 | 144 | 138 | 136 | 93 | 87 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | glassy | on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 10:39PM2.29m | 11:24AM2.15m | 11:19PM2.05m | 11:53AM2.15m | 11:59PM1.79m | 12:23PM2.12m | 00:43AM1.54m | 12:55PM2.06m | 1:44AM1.33m | 1:36PM1.99m | 2:41PM1.92m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:04AM0.38m | 5:22PM0.74m | 5:28AM0.58m | 6:09PM0.78m | 5:48AM0.79m | 7:02PM0.85m | 6:02AM0.97m | 8:12PM0.92m | 6:06AM1.12m | 10:00PM0.93m | 11:53PM0.83m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — |
 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:14 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:12 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 21 | 23 | 24 | 21 | 24 | 25 | 21 | 24 | 25 | 22 | 25 | 25 | 22 | 26 | 26 | 23 | 26 | 26 | 23 |
Feels °C | 21 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 21 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 26 | 26 | 23 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 27 | 26 | 23 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | SW 14 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | SW 14 | WNW 7 | WNW 6 | SW 14 | WNW 6 | WNW 8 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 5 |
| kJ | 386 | 367 | 362 | 70 | 82 | 214 | 178 | 118 | 162 | 149 | 72 | 169 | 55 | 47 | 144 | 138 | 136 | 93 | 20 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 5 | NW 8 | WNW 11 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WNW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 12 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | W 16 | W 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 13 | SW 13 |
| kJ | 18 | 2 | 12 | 358 | 251 | 17 | 169 | 164 | 14 | 130 | 132 | 61 | 186 | 196 | 5 | 13 | 8 | 35 | 87 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | W 11 | S 7 | WNW 11 | WNW 13 | — | W 13 | W 12 | NW 12 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | — | SW 20 | WNW 9 | W 13 | WNW 8 | WNW 8 | SW 18 | WNW 12 |
| kJ | 43 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 17 | — | 3 | 3 | 5 | 68 | 67 | — | 15 | 17 | 3 | 28 | 26 | 12 | 31 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 5 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 6 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | WNW 7 | — | — | WNW 6 | — | — | WNW 9 | — | — | WNW 8 | — |
| kJ | 29 | 13 | 41 | 122 | 136 | 110 | 278 | 198 | 114 | — | — | 56 | — | — | 86 | — | — | 51 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 355 | 355 | 355 | 494 | 355 | 355 | 495 | 355 | 355 | 495 | 410 | 495 | 494 | 355 | 355 | 355 | 355 | 355 | 446 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Baja Norte | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Mexico | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the El Cardon Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for El Cardon provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at El Cardon can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our El Cardon surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (El Cardon) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for El Cardon may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Baja Norte? If you are looking for accommodation near El Cardon, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Baja Norte, consider staying in Santa Isabel which is 123 km (76 miles) away.
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