El Cardon Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get straight into it. This is Rusty, and I’m looking at what’s coming up for El Cardon over the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it’s a tough stretch. The forecast is pretty lackluster, and there’s a big gap of nothing much happening for days on end.

The first bit of action we see is on Saturday, September 5th. Early morning, the wind is light and blowing onshore from the WSW at 6 mph, which is not ideal but it’s not too strong. We’ve got a 4 ft swell coming from the SSW with a very long period of 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, but it’s getting directed here with a combined energy of just 652 (moderate). The set waves will have a lot of push, but the cross-onshore wind will mess with the surface. The tide conditions look questionable too, so it’s a bit of a gamble. Not a standout by any means.

The afternoon on the same day gets worse. Wind picks up to 12 mph from the WNW, cross-onshore, and the swell bumps up to 4 ft from the SSW with a 15-second period. The energy climbs to 777 (moderate), but the wind is making it choppy and poor. Score it as a write-off.

Sunday the 6th isn’t any better. Morning has a 4 ft SSW swell at 12 seconds, with a cross-onshore breeze. The afternoon sees a 5 ft SW swell and a 14-second period, energy hits 1002 (moderate to strong), but it’s cross-shore winds and chop. Not a session you’d drive for.

Monday the 7th? Morning has a 5 ft SW swell at 12 seconds, with a light onshore wind. The energy is 678 (moderate). Afternoon is a repeat of the same poor conditions with 12 mph cross-onshore winds. Forget it.

From Tuesday the 8th through to Friday the 11th, the swell drops off significantly. We’re looking at 2 ft to 3 ft swells, mostly from the SW, with periods bouncing between 9 and 16 seconds. The wind is consistently light onshore or cross-onshore. The energy is weak (under 300 to 400). The scores are all terrible. There’s nothing to recommend here. This is a dead zone in the forecast.

Then we hit the weekend of the 12th and 13th of September. A new pulse of swell shows up, but it’s short-period stuff. On Saturday morning the 12th, we get a 6 ft WNW swell with a period of just 7 seconds. That’s windswell, not the good stuff. The energy is 576 (moderate), but the wind is cross-onshore from the WSW at 6 mph. The waves will be lumpy and weak. Afternoon is even worse with 15 mph winds. Sunday the 13th sees a 5 ft WNW swell, also 7 seconds, with a light onshore wind. Energy is 335 (weak). Not worth paddling out for.

The following week, from Monday the 14th to Friday the 18th, is a desert. Swell heights drop to 1 ft to 2 ft consistently. The direction is all over the place, but mostly SW or WNW, with very long periods (15 to 22 seconds) but zero size. The combined energy is weak (under 400). The wind is always cross-onshore. The forecasts are all “poor surf conditions.” This is a long, blank run.

Finally, on Saturday the 19th of September, we see a little flicker of hope. A 4 ft WNW swell with an 11-second period rolls in. The morning has a light cross-onshore breeze from the W at 9 mph. Energy is 562 (moderate). The afternoon is a little better with a 4 ft swell and a cross-shore wind, energy of 613 (moderate). Still, it’s marginal. The best of a bad lot, but nothing to get excited about.

And then on Sunday the 20th of September, the last day of the forecast, we get a 3 ft SW swell with an 18-second period, and a light cross-onshore wind. Energy is 678 (moderate). Again, marginal.

The water temperature? Nothing unusual to report for the time of year at El Cardon.

So what’s the call? If you’re desperate, the early Saturday morning of the 5th might give you a few clean-ish sets if the tide lines up, and maybe the Saturday afternoon of the 19th could offer some fun, but honestly, this is a period where the ocean is just not cooperating. The consistent lack of quality and the long gaps of poor surf mean you’re better off waiting for a better forecast. This area can be fickle, and right now it’s showing its quiet side.

Rusty.

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