Waikiki Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, and here’s the outlook for the home break.

Alright, so we’ve got a stretch ahead that’s a bit of a mixed bag – some promising pulses, but a lot of marginal, onshore conditions to work through. The first real shot at something decent is early on Monday, July 13th, but it’s not a world-beater by any stretch. The water is sitting at 69.1° – that’s much warmer than we’d expect for this time of year, around 5.9° above average, which feels weird but isn’t a bad thing for a dawn session.

Kicking it off Monday, July 13th, at Waikiki. The morning is the pick of the day. We’ve got a 3-foot SSW groundswell rolling in with a long 15-second period. That slow, powerful pulse will wrap in nicely, but the wind is a light cross-on from the south. It’s not glassy, but with a light breeze and the long period, expect some clean, lined-up walls. The combined energy is moderate at 709. Crowds are sometimes a thing here, so expect some company. Monday afternoon drops off quickly – the score falls to zero, so don’t waste the afternoon.

Tuesday, July 14th, holds a little more size – 4-foot SSW in the morning with a 13-second period and a light cross-on. The combined energy is solid at 744. Still, the wind is a bit of a spoiler, keeping it from being truly clean. The afternoon sees the wind pick up to 9 mph, making it a bit choppy. Worth a paddle in the morning, but not a standout.

Wednesday, July 15th, offers a similar story: 4.6-foot SW swell, 13-second period, light cross-on breeze. The combined energy actually dips a bit in the morning to 584 but picks up to 708 in the afternoon. Still, the wind keeps it from being special. It’s just okay.

Thursday, July 16th, is probably the best of this first week. The morning swell ticks up to 5-foot from the SSW, 13-second period, with a light south cross-on. The combined energy hits 808 – the strongest we see for a while. The wind is light, so the conditions are better than the previous days. This is the session to aim for if you’ve got a window. The afternoon wind picks up to 9 mph, making it choppier, so go early.

Then we hit a long, dry stretch. From Friday, July 17th, right through to Thursday, July 23rd, the conditions are consistently poor. The swell stays around 3.3 to 4.6 feet, but the wind is persistently cross-on, and the wave quality is labelled as poor or marginal. The combined energy drops from 564 down to 197. It’s not worth the paddle. There’s a five-day gap here where you’re better off doing something else.

There’s a tiny flicker of life on Friday, July 24th, with a 3.3-foot S swell, but the period drops to a short 7 seconds and the combined energy is a weak 210. That’s a windswell – short, weak, and messy. Not your friend.

The next real chance comes on Saturday, July 25th. The morning is a small 2.3-foot SW swell, 10-second period, with a light onshore wind from the WSW. The combined energy is a weak 289. It’s marginal at best. The afternoon improves slightly to 2.6-foot SSW with a 12-second period and 369 energy. Still, it’s not great.

Sunday, July 26th, is a write-off – poor conditions all day.

Now, here’s the interesting one. Monday, July 27th, shows a building swell. The morning is a 2.6-foot SW swell, but the period jumps to 16 seconds – that’s a long-period groundswell. The combined energy is 504. The wind is still cross-on, but that long period will push some clean, powerful lines through, especially on the reef. By the afternoon, the swell bumps to 3.6-foot SW, 15-second period, and the combined energy hits 688. It’s still marginal due to the wind, but it’s the most interesting we’ve seen in a week.

The best of the entire forecast is Tuesday, July 28th. The morning delivers 4.3-foot SW swell, 13-second period, with a light cross-on from the SSW. The combined energy is a solid 775. The wind is light, the swell is decent, and the period is solid. This is the standout. The afternoon holds up with 3.6-foot SW, 12-second period, and 670 energy. If you only get one session in the next two weeks, make it Tuesday, July 28th, morning. Crowds are possible, so bring your patience.

Bottom line: The first week is a grind with a few okay mornings, but Thursday, July 16th, and Tuesday, July 28th, are the real standouts. The long period swells will be best at the reef, so stick to the inside peaks. The water is unusually warm, so that’s a bonus. Stay patient.

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