Tres Picos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into the outlook for the next couple of weeks at Tres Picos.

Overall, this is a pretty stubborn stretch of surf. We’ve got a consistent pulse of SW swell running through the whole 16-day window, but the wind is rarely doing us any favours. It’s mostly a cross-onshore affair, which keeps the surface messy and the waves average. The water is really warm, about 69°, which is a massive 7° warmer than usual for the time of year – that’s very unusual, feels like a tropical bath.

We kick off on Friday, September 4th, with a solid 5ft SW swell rolling in, carrying a long 16-second period and a strong combined energy of 1363. That’s a proper groundswell. But the wind is a cross-onshore SSE breeze at 9 mph, so it’s choppy and fairly uninviting. The afternoon sees the same size swell drop to 5ft as the period shortens to 15 seconds, but the wind is still cross-onshore from the S. It’s not great.

Saturday the 5th is a similar story. Morning brings 5ft SW swell with a 14-second period and moderate energy (815), but again we’ve got a cross-onshore wind from the SSW at 6 mph, leaving those little wind ripples on the face. The afternoon drops to 4ft, and the wind picks up a touch. Not the day to call in sick.

Sunday the 6th, the swell backs off a bit more to 4ft in the morning, still with that cross-onshore breeze. The combined energy is moderate at 835. The afternoon cleans up slightly with the wind easing to 6 mph, but the swell is all the way down to 3ft.

Monday the 7th might be the best we get in the first week. The morning sees a 3ft SW swell, but the period jumps back to a long 16 seconds, and the wind shifts to a light onshore breeze from the SSW at 6 mph. The energy is moderate (670). It’s small, but if you’re a beginner looking for a clean little wave, this could be a window. The water is still warm, and the crowds are only “sometimes” an issue, so it might be worth a paddle.

Tuesday the 8th, we get a little bump back up to 4ft in the morning, but the wind is cross-onshore again. The rest of the first week and into the second week is a drag. From Wednesday the 9th through to the following Tuesday the 15th, the swell hovers between 2ft and 4ft, but the wind is persistently cross-onshore or onshore, with speeds of 6 to 16 mph. The combined energy drops into the 300s and 400s, which is weak. The surf quality is consistently rated as poor or marginal.

It’s not until Saturday the 12th that we see a shift. The wind goes light and onshore from the SW, but the swell period drops to a short 8 seconds, and the energy is only 430. The swell is from the SSW. The following week, from the 17th to the 19th, we see a slight increase in size to 4ft to 5ft, but it’s all short-period S swell (8 seconds). The mornings have a light onshore wind, which is a bit better, but the short period means the waves will be weaker and more crumbly. The combined energy stays in the 300s and 400s.

There is no true standout session in this whole 16-day window. The best bet is probably Monday morning, September 7th, for the cleanest conditions on a small, long-period groundswell. If you’re a beginner, that’s your window. For everyone else, it’s a waiting game. The surf is just too compromised by the wind to get excited about.

Stay patient, folks. The forecast can always change.

Rusty.

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