Tres Picos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s happening at Tres Picos. We’ve got a mixed bag coming up, and it’s going to take a bit of patience if you want the good stuff.

Right now through the first week of August, it’s a bit of a struggle. We’ve got a persistent cross-onshore wind that’s keeping things choppy. The swell is coming from the SW, which is the optimum direction for this spot, but the conditions just aren't clean. Wednesday morning (August 5th) kicks off with a light breeze and a 4ft SW swell with a long period of 13 seconds, but the water temp is a very unusual 71°F, much warmer than normal for this time of year. The combined wave energy is moderate (639). Still, the forecast calls it marginal, and I’m inclined to agree. The breeze picks up and turns cross-onshore in the afternoon, so that morning window is your only real look.

The theme continues through to the 11th of August. Swell stays in the 3ft to 5ft range with moderate energy (361 to 1024). The period is long, between 13 and 17 seconds, suggesting a proper groundswell. But that S/SSE wind just won’t quit, keeping a cross-onshore chop on the face. For a beginner-friendly spot like this, it’s not ideal. There’s a slight uptick in size on the 11th afternoon with 5ft, but the wind jumps to 12 mph and the rating is poor. Not the day for it, mate.

After the 11th, we hit a stretch from the 12th to the 18th where the winds finally start showing some offshore potential in the mornings. We get light SW or SSW breezes that are "on" the face. The swell drops a little but holds decent form, with periods still in the 12-19 second range. The energy stays moderate (635 to 1119). The caveat here is that because the period is so long, especially with that 19 second swell on the 13th, the waves might break a little straight at a beach break. Tres Picos is a point break, so that long-period groundswell should wrap in nicely. These morning sessions are your best bet for clean, workable surf, but the scores are still just marginal. Thursday morning August 13th, for instance, has a 3ft swell with a massive 19 second period and 935 energy—the shape could be there, but it’s small.

Now, the real standout window is the one you want to circle on your calendar. Around August 19th and 20th, the swell kicks up significantly. We’re looking at 5ft to 6ft SW swell with a consistent 16 second period. The combined wave energy jumps into the strong range—1759 on the 19th morning, and 1822 that afternoon. That’s serious power. The wind is still cross-onshore, which is a shame, but it’s light, so the chop will be minimal. This is the best size on offer, and while it’s rated as marginal, the raw energy and long period make it the standout of the whole outlook. For a beginner spot though, 6ft is getting a bit full, so maybe this one is for the more experienced crew.

Beyond that, the 20th holds similar size and energy. Nothing else in the 16 days comes close to this punch.

To sum it up: it’s a slow burn with a lot of average days, but if you can wait until the 19th and 20th of August, you’ll be rewarded with the biggest, most powerful swell of the forecast. The winds won’t be perfect, but the size and energy will make it worth the paddle out.

Stay patient, keep an eye on that morning wind, and I’ll see you in the lineup.

- Rusty

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