38 Line Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right off the bat, the ocean’s doing its best impression of a flat lake, so don’t go rushing down to the water just yet. The first real pulse of energy shows up on the morning of Wednesday the 12th. Overnight, the swell jumps to 5ft out of the ENE, but the wind is a cross-shore mess from the north at 12 mph, so it’s going to be lumpy and jumbled. The energy is picking up though, but it’s still moderate, and it’s got some push to it, but it’s not gonna be pretty. By Wednesday afternoon, the wind howls up to 19 mph out of the NNE, the swell bumps to 7ft, and the energy jumps. This is getting serious, but it’s also getting ugly, with a fresh cross-shore and lumpy chop. This isn’t a paddling day, unless you’re towing a kite.

Thursday the 13th is still a bit of a mess. Morning sees 6ft of NNE swell with a cross-on breeze, and the energy is really cranking. That’s a lot of juice, but the rain and chop are making it marginal. It’s better than Wednesday, but still not a day to write home about. The afternoon eases off to 4ft but the wind goes cross, keeping things average.

Now, the standout of the whole run happens on the morning of Friday the 15th. The swell drops to a clean 4ft, but the wind swings to a light cross-off from the NNW at 6 mph, and the water turns glassy. The energy is modest, but the quality is there. This is your window. The break to be at is 38 Line. The swell is coming from the NE, and this exposed spot takes it right. It’s fairly consistent, and while the crowds are never a lock, the clean conditions might bring a few out. The water’s also running 81°, which is a few degrees warmer than normal for this time of year—a nice little surprise.

After Friday morning, the plug gets pulled. The surf fades fast, dropping to under 3ft and barely holding any energy. The rest of the 15th, all of the 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st, and the 22nd are pretty much flat-out poor. There are faint pulses here and there, but nothing worth suiting up for. The swell just dies, and the period drops right off. It’s a grim stretch, and you’ll be staring at a lot of ocean doing nothing.

There’s a tiny glimmer late on Friday the 21st – a 3ft pulse from the SE with a clean cross-off breeze. It’s surfable, sure, but it’s a shadow of what we had on the 15th. That’s about it. The rest of the run into the 26th is all sub-3ft slop and short-period junk. The only other sign of life is the afternoon of the 26th, with a 5ft NNE swell, but the wind is cross and it’s raining, so it looks like more of a mess than a gift. That’s more than a week away, so I wouldn’t put any money on it, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

So, bottom line: if you can get out Friday morning, do it. That’s the pick of the bunch. Everything else is a write-off until the energy comes back, which doesn’t look like it’s going to happen within this window. It’s a tough run, but that’s the way the ocean goes sometimes.

Rusty.

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