38 Line Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for 38 Line over the next couple of weeks.

Truth be told, it’s a pretty bleak start. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing much happening. The water temp is sitting at 81°F which is a very unusual 6°F warmer than normal for this time of year – feels like a warm bath out there.

The first few days are a write-off. Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th are flat with poor conditions, and that continues right through until the end of the first week. There’s a gap of several days with no real surf to speak of. You’re looking at tiny, weak waves under 2ft with short period energy, and the wind is mostly cross or onshore, killing any chance of a clean wave. The combined energy is in the low double digits or single digits (30 or less), so there’s just no power in the water.

The real story, and the only thing worth getting excited about, kicks off on Sunday the 9th of August. A big pulse of NE swell arrives, pushing up to 8ft in the morning and hitting 10ft by the afternoon. That’s a solid swell, and it’s backed by monster energy readings (640 in the morning, 1327 in the afternoon – that’s strong wave energy). The period is 8 seconds, which is short period windswell, so it’ll be a bit lumpy and less refined than a groundswell. But the size is there.

The problem? The wind is a fresh cross-onshore from the NE at 22 mph, and it’s described as “lumpy”. That’s going to make it a messy, bumpy affair. Because the swell is over 8ft, this is strictly for experienced surfers only. The break is exposed, and this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, given the strong onshore wind and size.

This big swell sticks around through Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th, but the wind stays strong and cross-onshore, with gusts up to 25 mph. The energy stays high (over 1100), but the conditions are “messy” and “lumpy”. It’s not going to be pretty.

The best chance for a decent surf arrives later in the window. By Saturday the 15th of August, the swell drops to 8ft, and the wind eases to a gentle cross-onshore at 9 mph. The combined energy is still high at 957. It’s still a big swell, so it’s still for experienced surfers, but the lighter wind might make it a bit more manageable.

The standout moment, however, is Sunday the 16th of August. The swell drops to 7ft, and the wind goes light and variable from the N at 3 mph, described as “light cross-shore with small crossing wind ripples”. The combined energy is 880 – still strong. The wind is light enough that it could be clean, and the swell is big but not monstrous. That’s your best bet. It’s the only window in the 16-day outlook where the wind looks like it might cooperate with the size.

After that, it all fades away again into tiny, weak surf for the rest of the period.

So, to wrap it up: don’t bother with the first week. The only real standout is Sunday the 16th of August, with a 7ft NE swell and light wind. Keep your eyes on that one, but remember it’s a long-range call, so don’t book the trip just yet. You’ll be waiting for a clean one.

Rusty.

Read more