38 Line Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the menu for 38 Line over the next couple of weeks.

It starts a bit grim, to be honest. We've got a long patch of poor surf ahead. For the first eight days, from Thursday the 10th to through Thursday the 17th, there’s hardly anything worth paddling out for. The swell is tiny, mostly around 0.3m to 0.9m, with weak energy readings—you’re looking at values like 23 or 6 in the combined swell energy. The winds are a mix of glassy mornings and light onshores, but there’s just no power in the water. A few sessions are "surfable but very ordinary," like Thursday afternoon the 10th, where we had 1.0m from the ENE at a short 7 seconds, with glassy conditions. It was clean, but the water’s a touch warmer than normal at 25°, which is nice, but the waves were lacklustre. Thursday the 17th is another glassy morning, but it’s only 0.2m—basically a lake.

Then we get a slight flicker. On the morning of Friday the 18th, there’s 0.9m from the ESE at 6 seconds, with weak energy (68), but it’s clean and glassy. It’s still very weak, but it's the most rideable we've seen in a while. Saturday the 19th is back to flatness.

The main event arrives much later. On Tuesday the 22nd of September, the swell really kicks in—2.5m from the NE, period 8 seconds, with massive energy (1053). But the wind is a cross-onshore at 20 km/h, making it choppy and messy. It jumps to 3.0m on Tuesday afternoon with even higher energy (2660), but the cross-onshore wind and rain make it poor. By Wednesday the 23rd, we’ve got 2.5m from the ENE at a longer 11 seconds, but the wind is a near-gale at 55 km/h cross-shore. This is kitesurfing territory, not paddle surfing. The period is long enough to expect good shape at a point or reef, but 38 Line being a beach break, that long period might make it break too straight anyway. Combine that with the brutal wind, and it’s a hard pass for standard surfing.

The one true standout in this whole 16-day window is Thursday the 24th of September. The morning is promising. We’ve got 1.4m from the NE, period 10 seconds, with strong energy (443). The wind is glassy—slight air from the SW—so it should be clean. This is the best bet for 38 Line, with moderate-sized, clean swell from the optimum direction. For the afternoon, the swell holds at 1.5m from the NE at 11 seconds (505 energy), but the wind swings to a cross-onshore at 15 km/h, making it choppier. So hit that morning window. After that, Friday the 25th is back down to 1.0m with glassy morning conditions, but it’s just ordinary.

So the bottom line: the first week and a half is flat and forgettable, then we get a messy, oversized windswell that’s too rough for a good time. The only real highlight is the morning of Thursday the 24th—clean, moderate groundswell. Keep an eye on that one, but remember it’s far out, so it’s promising but not locked in.

Rusty.

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