The Wharf Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you: the outlook for the period is a bit of a heartbreaker. We've got a solid run of swell at The Wharf, but the wind just won't play ball for the vast majority of the time. It's a 16-day forecast, but you're going to have to be patient.

The first real chance of anything decent doesn't come until the very end. We're looking at a long stretch of poor conditions, mostly thanks to persistent cross-onshore winds and messy seas. The water temp is sitting right on the seasonal average at 28°, so no wetsuit worries there.

For the first week and a half, from Sunday the 12th right through to the middle of the following week, the swell is there but it's junk. We see a mix of short-period windswell and longer-period groundswell, but the wind is just ruining it. There's a southwesterly groundswell pumping in on the 12th and 13th, with periods of 15-16 seconds, bringing waves around 4 ft, but the cross-on wind from the SSE makes it a choppy, frustrating mess. It gets worse from there. By Wednesday the 15th, the wind is howling from the SE at 25 mph, blowing right across a 7 ft, 8-second lump. The combined energy is moderate to strong during this period, with values hitting 885 on the Sunday and 819 on the Wednesday, but it's all wasted energy.

This ugly pattern continues. The swell holds at 7 ft from the SE through the 16th, 17th, and 18th, but that strong wind keeps the surface chopped up. The combined energy gets heavier, hitting 1468 on the 18th, but it's just a powerful, messy windswell that's only going to appeal to the kite crew. The surf quality is just poor. We get a tiny glimmer on the 20th with a 5 ft SSE groundswell, but it's still fresh and cross-onshore.

The only real standout in the entire 16-day window comes right at the end. On Wednesday the 22nd, the afternoon session finally looks like it might be worth it. The swell drops right down to a tiny 2 ft, but the wind swings around to a light 5 mph from the north, giving us a clean, glassy cross-offshore breeze. The combined energy is weak at 378, but that's a small price to pay for a clean face. The forecast even says "expect good surf conditions." For a consistent, exposed reef like The Wharf, clean conditions are everything. The waves will be small, but it's the only time the ocean is going to give you a proper canvas.

Beyond that, the 23rd and 24th are a return to naff conditions with small, choppy swells, and the 25th looks like a total write-off with combined energy dropping to 81. The 27th shows a little bump in swell from the SW, but it'll be cross-onshore again.

So, to sum it up: the best of a bad bunch is Wednesday the 22nd in the afternoon. It won't be epic, but it'll be clean. For everything else, you're better off waiting for the next forecast.

Rusty.

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