The Tree Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next couple of weeks at The Tree.

First thing’s first – the water is sitting at 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Nice, a little extra warmth in the water.

The overall pattern is pretty consistent, with a moderate, long-period groundswell running from the SSW for most of the time. The combined swell energy is mostly in the moderate range, sitting between 400 and 500 (moderate wave energy), which means there’s enough juice to get a good wave, but it’s not going to be a monster. The Tree is an advanced spot, exposed to the swell, so it handles this kind of energy well.

The standout period is the mornings. For the first week, Tuesday through to Sunday, the mornings are glassy – light winds from the north or NNE, dead calm, and clean. You’ll get waves around 3 ft to 3 ft from the SSW, with a period of 12 to 14 seconds. That’s a nice, long-period groundswell, which means well-shaped waves, good energy, and longer lulls between sets, making the paddle out easier. The Tree is a reef or point setup, so that long period stuff will peel nicely. These mornings are the best on offer, especially the Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday mornings. The afternoons, though, they get a bit messy with onshore or cross-onshore winds and risk of thunderstorms, so you want to be out early.

The real highlight, though, is the back half of the forecast. Mark your calendar for the 20th of July – Monday morning. The swell is 2 ft from the SW, but the period jumps to 16 seconds, and the combined energy is 525 (solid moderate). The wind is glassy from the NE. That’s a recipe for a clean, long, lined-up wave. The 25th of July, Saturday morning, is also a standout – a 2 ft swell from the SW but with a very long period of 21 seconds, combined energy of 552, and clean cross-offshore winds. This is a very special, very long-period groundswell that will wrap perfectly into The Tree. It’s a week and a half away, so it’s promising but less certain.

The 27th, 28th, and 29th of July mornings are also looking excellent, with clean conditions and energy levels climbing into the 700s and 900s (strong wave energy). The swell stays around 3 ft from the SW, with periods of 15 to 18 seconds. These are the days for the experienced surfer, because the swell is over 2 ft but under 8 ft, so it’s in the sweet spot for advanced crew. The energy is building, and the consistency is good.

The Tree is a consistent break, and it’s exposed, so it catches most of this. The crowds are sometimes an issue, so the early morning glass-off will be your best chance to get it to yourself.

If you’re a beginner, the swell is mostly under 5 ft, so it’s doable, but the longer period and the advanced nature of the break means it’s not the best learning spot. Stick to the mornings when it’s glassy.

Overall, the pattern is solid. The mornings are the clear winner. The second week has a few absolute gems, especially the 20th, 25th, and 27th through 29th mornings. Get on it.

Rusty.

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