The Tree Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get straight into it. The big picture for The Tree over this stretch is pretty simple: a classic summer run of southwest groundswell pulses, mostly small to maybe a touch above average, but groomed by plenty of clean, light mornings. It’s not going to be a week of giant barrels, but there’s going to be some proper, rideable surf if you pick your moments. The water’s running a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, about 86°, which is a welcome little bonus for the first session we talk about.

The first real window is Thursday morning, the 13th. We’ve got a 2ft swell from the southwest with a long 15-second period, and it’s clean with a light cross-offshore breeze. It’s not big, but it’s lined up and the energy is there (326). Friday the 14th is where things start to get interesting. The morning is the standout early call: a little bump in size to 3ft, still southwest, period out to 18 seconds, and it’s glassy – absolutely no wind. The energy jumps right up to 837 (moderate), and the surf is going to be clean and well-shaped. This is your pick of the first few days.

Saturday the 15th morning is arguably the best of the whole run. We’ve got 4ft of southwest swell, 16-second period, and it’s completely glassy again. This is solidly in the moderate energy range at 1046, and the waves are going to have some push to them. It’s an excellent morning for experienced surfers on this exposed, fairly consistent break. Crowds are only a sometimes thing, so you might get a few other folks out, but it shouldn’t be a zoo. After that, Sunday the 16th keeps the quality going with 4ft glassy conditions through the morning and into the afternoon, with energy sitting around 761-758.

The surf dips a little on Monday and Tuesday, dropping back to 2ft – 3ft, but there are still clean windows. Tuesday morning the 18th has a clean 2ft from the southwest, and Wednesday morning the 19th looks glassy again with 3ft on offer. It’s still worth a paddle, just not the same level. The long-period southwest swells are great for a spot like this, an exposed reef/point setup that’s going to hold the lines better than a beach break would.

Then we’ve got a bit of a lull. From around the 20th through the 26th, the swell drops off. There are some smaller days – 2ft, 1ft – and a shift in direction to the south with shorter periods around 9-10 seconds. Not great. You’ll get some glassy, rideable mornings on the 21st and the 23rd, but they’re really just insubstantial leftovers. This is the low point of the run, and it last for about a week. It’s not a complete blank, but it’s nothing to get excited about.

The signal for the very end of the window, on Thursday the 27th, shows a little pulse back in the southwest swell, 3ft – 3ft with a 17-second period. But the wind is looking cross to cross-on and a bit stronger, so the quality is going to be compromised. It’s a tentative, promising sign for the following week, but for now it’s a wait-and-see.

So, to keep it simple: Friday and Saturday mornings are your standouts. If you can only get out once, make it Saturday morning the 15th for the size and the glass. Friday is a close second for the quality and the longer period. The rest is a case of picking the clean windows and keeping your expectations in check. The Tree is fairly consistent, so it’ll come around again.

Stay stoked.

Rusty

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