The Tree Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s cut straight to it. The next couple of weeks at The Tree are a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s a serious window of juice coming up if you’re patient. Right now, the water’s sitting at 87°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – you won’t need much more than board shorts and a rashie.

For the first stretch, from Tuesday the 18th through to the 24th, it’s pretty small and unremarkable. We’re looking at waves in the 2ft to 3ft range, with the occasional ankle-snapper up to 4ft on Friday morning the 21st. The energy is weak to moderate, with readings mostly between 200 and 480. The problem is the wind – we get some glassy starts, like Wednesday morning and Friday morning, but the afternoons keep getting chopped up by cross-onshore breezes and stormy conditions. The Tree is exposed, and it takes a beating when the wind turns on it. There’s nothing here that’s going to have you calling in sick for work.

Now, after a bit of a lull, the real story starts building around Thursday the 27th. The swell starts to pick up, but it’s short-period stuff – only 7 seconds – so it’s a bit lumpy. Still, with calm winds and glassy conditions in the morning, it’s ridable. You’re looking at around 4ft with moderate energy (258). But hold on, because the standouts are on Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th.

Saturday the 29th is the one to circle. The swell jumps to 4ft to 5ft, from the SW with a 16-second period. That’s a proper groundswell, and the combined energy readings are screaming – 1172 in the morning and 1098 in the afternoon. That’s strong to very strong energy, the kind that gets your heart rate up. The wind is glassy all day, and this is excellent surf for experienced surfers. This is your best bet, no question. It’s not a beginner wave at this size, but if you know what you’re doing, this is the session. The long period means it’ll hold its shape well at The Tree.

Sunday the 30th is still very good – 5ft in the morning, dropping to 4ft later, with energy in the 900s. Also glassy early on, though the afternoon gets a little cross-shore. Monday the 31st keeps the run going with 4ft and clean conditions, but the energy drops back to the 700s. It’s still fun, but the peak has passed.

After that, into the first week of September, we start to fade again. The first couple of days of September have some clean mornings but the swell backs off to under 3ft. Tuesday the 1st has some small glassy waves, but it’s nothing special. By Wednesday the 2nd, we’re back to long-period but tiny – only 2ft. It’s a fizzle, not a finish.

So, the call is simple: if you can only paddle out once, make it Saturday the 29th. The Tree is an advanced break, fairly consistent, and it can get crowded, so get out there early. It’s a rare and inconsistent spot, so when it lines up like this, you don’t miss it.

Rusty.

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