The Reef (Culebra) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been watching this stretch of coast for a long time. Let’s be straight with each other: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak for The Reef (Culebra). We’ve got a long, drawn-out period of tiny, weak, and messy surf, so don’t go getting your hopes up for anything epic. The water temperature is sitting at 30°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a winter suit.

Looking at the charts, the first real pulse of energy doesn’t show up until the end of the first week. We’ve got a run of nothing but small, poor surf through the 27th of August all the way to the 5th of September. Swell heights barely tickle 2 ft to 5 ft, but the wind is a constant problem. For most of that stretch, it’s a fresh breeze, cross or cross-onshore, making for lumpy, choppy conditions. The combined energy is weak, often under 250, and those short, windswell periods of 5 to 8 seconds will just leave you bobbing around. Honestly, for the first week, it’s more of a kite-surfing breeze than a paddling session.

The only glimmer of hope, and I mean a faint one, comes on the 6th of September. Sunday morning and afternoon show a bump in the numbers. The swell direction swings around to the east, with a much longer period of 13 to 14 seconds, which is proper groundswell energy. The combined energy rises to 227 and 316 (moderate). The swell height is still modest, around 2 ft to 3 ft, but the wind is a clean cross-offshore from the ESE at 12 mph. That’s a recipe for clean, glassy faces at this reef. The only catch is the forecast is for a risk of thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, so keep an eye on the sky. Even then, the score is a marginal 1 out of 10, so don’t expect perfection.

After that little window, it drops back into a weak, poor state all the way through the 11th of September. The long-range stuff from the 6th is promising but far from certain. The break itself is a reef, very consistent, and exposed to the north, which is the optimum swell direction. It’s an intermediate wave, so the bigger swells won’t be for beginners, but we’re not getting any size here anyway. Crowds are sometimes a problem, but with this forecast, you’ll likely have the place to yourself.

So, to sum it up: the best option is that Sunday the 6th of September, with a clean, long-period east swell from 13 to 14 seconds, around 2 ft to 3 ft, and light offshore winds. The rest of the forecast is a write-off, with a big gap of poor conditions from now until then. Keep an eye on the models, but for now, I’d say take the board for a walk on the 6th and hope for the best.

Rusty.

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