The Reef (Culebra) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for the Culebra area over the next sixteen days.

Honestly, I've gotta level with you – the outlook is a bit of a tough one. The data we have is only pointing to one spot, The Reef (Culebra), and the whole period is looking pretty grim. There's a long stretch of poor surf ahead, so don't be booking any days off work just yet. The water temp is sitting at 84°, which is about normal for this time of year, so at least you won't be freezing while you're staring at the closeouts.

The first real signs of any swell start on Thursday morning, the 6th of August, with a 3ft NE windswell. But the wind is howling out of the ESE at 16 mph, making it a cross-offshore breeze. The combined energy of all swells directed here is only 101, so it's weak. The rest of that week and into the next is a write-off – the wind is stuck in the east, pumping at 16 to 19 mph, and the swell never gets its act together. The period is short, 6-8 seconds, and the cross-shore wind is just going to chop it up into a mess. It's a solid nine-day stretch of "poor surf conditions" with no real standouts. The swell does bump up a bit around the 14th and 15th of August, hitting 7ft, and the energy picks up to a moderate 388, but the wind is still a strong cross-shore at 22-25 mph. This is looking more like a kite-surfing session than a paddle-surfing one, with that strong breeze and messy cross-chop. For a reef break, that's not the recipe for a good time.

We do see a slight improvement from the 18th of August into the 20th. The swell drops back to 4ft to 5ft, and the wind eases a bit to 12-16 mph. We get a few clean windows with a cross-offshore breeze, but the energy is still weak (145 down to 45). The period is still a short 7-8 seconds, so it's just not going to have the push to make a reef break work properly. The 20th and 21st of August look like the cleanest of a bad lot, but the swell is tiny, only 1ft to 2ft, and the energy is pitiful. There's just no proper surf to get excited about.

To be brutally honest, there's no standout period here. The combination of persistent onshore/cross-shore wind and a short-period, low-energy swell makes The Reef (Culebra) a non-starter for the entire 16-day window. The surf is poor, and the conditions are poor. It's one of those times where the forecast just doesn't have anything good to offer. Fingers crossed it changes, but for now, I'd give this one a miss.

Rusty.

Read more