The Reef (Culebra) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey, Rusty here. Let’s get real about what’s happening at The Reef (Culebra).

I’ve got to be honest, this is a tough one to write. We are staring down a long, dry spell that starts Wednesday the 8th of July and doesn’t really offer anything worth paddling out for until the end of the forecast. That’s more than two weeks of poor surf. The main problem is the wind – it’s almost always a fresh cross-shore breeze, which just tears up any chance of a clean wave. The swell sticks around in the 3 to 6 ft range for the first week, but the short period (5-8 seconds) and constant chop kill the quality.

The water temp is about average for the season, so that’s not the issue. The issue is everything else.

Let’s go day by day. Wednesday the 8th has a risk of thunderstorms, 6 ft of messy east swell, but a strong 25 mph cross-wind makes it a total mess. Thursday the 9th through Saturday the 11th are the same sad story: clean skies, but fresh winds (22 mph) keeping the surface lumpy and cross-chop everywhere. The swell stays around 5 ft, but the period is short (5-8 seconds), so there’s no power. The combined wave energy (around 300) is moderate, but it might as well be zero for how it looks.

Sunday the 12th sees the swell drop to just under 4 ft, and the wind lightens slightly to a moderate breeze (16 mph), but it’s still blowing cross-shore, so you’ll have a bumpy surface. The following week, from Monday the 13th to Thursday the 16th, is the same pattern: head-high to slightly overhead east swell (5 to 5 ft) but always with that irritating fresh cross-breeze. The wave energy stays in the moderate range (100-218), but the quality never improves.

The only faint glimmer of hope comes on Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th of July. The wind turns cross-offshore (22 mph from the east on Friday morning, 22 mph from the ESE on Saturday morning), and the file says it’ll be “clean.” The swell is a consistent 5 ft from the east with a 6-second period. It’s not a classic day, but the surface will be smoother than anything else we’ve seen. This is a very consistent reef break, so there will be waves, but the short period means they’ll be weak and crumbly. If you’re going to go, that’s the window.

After that, it’s all downhill. From Sunday the 19th onward, the swell fades to under 3 ft, and the wind stays cross-shore. The energy drops into the weak category (under 100), and by the 23rd, we are down to tiny 1 ft leftovers. There is nothing left to ride.

Honestly, this stretch looks more interesting for kite surfers with the strong side winds and lumpy water. For a traditional surfer, you are better off waiting for a better forecast.

Keep the wax in the wrapper on this one.

Rusty out.

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