Tenia Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I've gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days at Tenia are lookin' pretty grim if you're after a decent paddle. We're in for a bit of a wait, and even when the swell shows up, the wind is gonna be a pain in the arse.

Let's start with the here and now. The water's sitting at 73°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so that's one thing you don't have to worry about.

We've got a few little pulses of swell lined up, but nothing that's gonna get the heart racing. The combined energy is pretty weak, with values like 1493 (moderate energy) on Sunday the 6th, but that's about as good as it gets for the first week. The problem is that on Sunday the 6th, we've got a 6ft SSW swell with a 16-second period – that's a long-period groundswell, which is great for shape, but it's coming in with a cross-on wind from the SSW, so it's gonna be choppy and messy. The wind's gonna be a cross-shore mess for the whole first week, and the swell heights are all over the shop, from 3ft to 5ft, but the wind just ruins it.

Honestly, from Sunday the 6th right through to Friday the 11th, the surf is marginal at best. The wind is just too much of a factor. The combined energy stays low (between 290 and 1493), and the conditions are consistently described as "light cross-onshore" or "moderate cross-shore with a cross-chop." Not a day to get excited about.

Now, the second week looks like it's gonna be a case of "too much of a good thing." Saturday the 12th of September, we see a big jump in swell – 12ft from the SSW, with a 17-second period and a massive combined energy of 7320 (strong to very strong). But that's too big for Tenia, and the wind is a fresh cross-shore, so it's gonna be a washing machine. The same goes for Sunday the 13th, with 8ft swell and 2350 energy, but again, the wind is a problem.

There's a real standout moment on Saturday the 19th of September. The forecast is showing a 20ft SW swell with a 15-second period, and the combined energy is a whopping 15281 – that's extreme. The wind is blowing straight onshore from the SSW, but the notes say "wind and tide favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break." That's a massive, powerful groundswell, but it's gonna be way too much for a paddle. Honestly, that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Then again on Sunday the 20th, we've got a 15ft SSW swell with 7714 energy, and the wind is light cross-on from the WSW – that's the closest we get to a clean window, but the swell is still dangerous for anyone but the most experienced.

So, the bottom line is: there's no real "best on offer" here. The surf is either too small and messy in the first week, or too big and messy in the second. The only glimmer of hope might be the very end of the period, on Monday the 21st of September, where we see a 10ft S swell with 3576 energy and a gentle cross-on wind. It's still a bit lumpy, but it's the most manageable of the big swells.

If you're a seasoned surfer willing to sit out the big stuff, keep an eye on Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th, but treat those as promising but less certain – the long-range call is a gamble. For everyone else, I'd be looking at the beach for a swim, not the lineup.

Rusty.

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