Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s be straight with you – the outlook for the next 16 days here is a tough one. The entire run is a write-off for any decent surf. Every window from now through to Monday the 27th of July shows “poor surf conditions” with no scores that would get me out of bed. There’s not a single standout session on offer, and that’s a rare blank stretch. The only break in the area is Tea Break, a consistent reef setup exposed to NNE swell, but the actual swell we’re getting is all cross-shore from the east, with just enough energy to keep it messy. Combined swell energy ranges from weak (53) to moderate (256), but it never finds a clean channel.

From Sunday morning the 12th, it’s east wind 12 mph, cross-shore, with a 4 ft east swell at 8 seconds. That’s a short-period slop, and combined energy at 169 is moderate but nowhere near clean. The water sits at 83°F with zero anomaly – dead average for this time of year. Nothing to write home about. That pattern repeats day after day: east or east-northeast winds 9–19 mph, cross-shore, with swell height bobbing between 3 ft and 6 ft, periods short at 5–8 seconds. There’s a fleeting bump on Monday afternoon the 20th where the swell reaches 6 ft at 7 seconds, energy hitting 256, but it’s paired with a 19 mph cross-shore that’ll just chop it to bits. The afternoon of Sunday the 19th also hits 6 ft, but again, same story.

By the tail end, Thursday the 23rd into Friday the 24th, the energy drops to weak levels (53–87), swell drops to 3–4 ft at 5 seconds – barely a ripple with onshore slop. Saturday the 25th nudges back to moderate energy (143), but it’s still cross-shore and short-period. No offshore winds in sight, no glassy mornings, just a constant cross-breeze. With swell heights under 5 ft, it’s not dangerous for beginners, just disappointing. Even the consistent reputation of Tea Break can’t save this one – the swell direction (east) is a mismatch for the break’s optimum NNE direction, so the reef isn’t focusing the energy at all.

Honestly, if you’re a kite surfer, this cross-shore chop might look fun, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a skip. We’ll have to wait for a change – forecasts can shift, but for now, it’s a solid two-week snooze.

Rusty.

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