Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve got to be straight with you: the next 16 days are looking grim for a paddle. We’ve got swell, sure, but it’s a mess. Let’s break it down.

The overall pattern is a long stretch of wind-affected, short-period, cross-shore chop. The wind is coming out of the E to ENE, not offshore, not onshore, but stuck right in the cross – and it’s blowing at a solid 9 to 18 mph. That’s keeping the surface lumpy and the waves messy. The swell direction is straight from the east to east-northeast, which is not lining up well with the optimum NNE direction for Tea Break.

Tea Break is a reef break, consistent, and suits intermediates. The water temp is about average for this time of year. But the conditions are just not cooperating. We kick off on Wednesday, July 22nd, with a 3ft ENE swell at a short 7-second period. The combined energy is weak at 102. That’s a poor surf call. The cross-shore wind is already creating a slight cross-chop.

This poor trend sticks. On Thursday the 23rd, the swell bumps up to 6ft in the afternoon, with a dropping 6-second period, but the wind is still cross, and the energy is moderate (239). The waves are going to be fat and blown out. Friday the 24th is similar—5ft on the afternoon push, but that short period and cross breeze means it’s a shoulder-high mess.

The weekend isn’t any better. Saturday the 25th has 5ft swell, but the wind picks up to 18 mph, creating a lumpy cross-chop. Sunday the 26th is the same story: 4ft, 8-second period, but the wind is howling again. The energy is moderate (193), but the quality is zero.

The next week, from July 27th through August 6th, is a rinse and repeat. We see a slight flicker of an 8-second period swell at 4ft to 4ft, but it’s always accompanied by that cross-breeze. The energy numbers stay in the moderate range, peaking at 263 on July 31st, but the “poor surf conditions” label never changes. The swell is too short-period and the wind is just wrong.

The only standout, if you can call it that, is the wave energy on Friday, July 31st, afternoon. The combined energy hits 263 (moderate), and the swell is 5ft from the east with an 8-second period. That’s the most push we’ll see, but it’s still a cross-shore, lumpy affair. The wind is 15 mph from the ENE. It’s not clean, it’s not glassy, and it’s certainly not the kind of day you’d tell a mate to rush out for. For a reef break, you want that offshore wind, and we just don’t have it.

Honestly, with this setup of significant swell and persistent cross-freak wind over a reef, the conditions look more interesting for a kite surfer than someone with a paddle. There’s energy, but it’s hard to love. The run of poor surf is considerable, stretching from now all the way through to the end of the forecast. It’s a tough stretch.

Rusty.

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