Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's break this down. The next couple of weeks are going to be a real test of patience. We've got one spot to look at, Tea Break, and honestly, it's a classic case of "lots of water moving around, but none of it lining up for us." We'll start with a bit of a flat spell before things get interesting further out.

For the first stretch, right through the coming weekend and into the start of next week, it's a whole lotta nothing. We're looking at weak, mostly east windswell with short, crumbly periods. That combined energy is all over the shop, mostly under 100 (like 64, 93, 96), which tells you there's just no punch. The winds are cross-shore and bumpy, so even the few small waves that show up are going to be messy. The water is sitting at 84°, which is about normal for this time of year. Honestly, it's a write-off for a solid week or more.

Now, the light at the end of the tunnel. Things start to shift around Wednesday, September 23rd. The swell direction swings around to the NNE, which is what Tea Break wants to see. The period jumps way up to 16 seconds, that's proper groundswell territory. The energy numbers climb into the 100s and 200s (128, 197, 181). This is the window we're waiting for. The catch is the size. We're only talking about ankle-to-knee-high waves, maybe 1 feet. The winds are light, but still cross-shore, so the surface won't be perfect. It's going to be a long-period, clean-ish, but undersized swell. Could be a fun novelty session for the frothers on a longboard, but it's not going to blow anyone away.

That long-period NNE swell holds in through the following week, into the start of October. The periods are still up there, 12-14 seconds, and the energy stays moderate (138, 154, 169). But the size is just tiny, still around 1 to 2 feet. The winds stay light and variable, mostly cross-shore. It's the classic setup for a spot like this: the direction is right, the quality of the swell is right, but there just isn't any water moving.

The one bright spot I see is right at the end of the run, on Thursday morning, October 1st. We've got a glassy forecast. The wind drops to almost nothing, a slight offshore breeze. The swell is still small, but it's clean. The period is a solid 12 seconds, with a combined energy of 69. For a break that's as finicky as this one, that glassy morning is the best chance for a surfable, albeit tiny, wave. It's the one time on the board where you might actually catch a little runner without it being chopped to bits.

So, what's the call? For the next couple of weeks, this lineup is not your friend. The setup looks far more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, especially with that messy cross-chop. If you're desperate, mark your calendar for that morning of October 1st, and keep an eye on the long-range stuff from the 23rd. But don't get your hopes up too high—the whole window is a whole lot of wait and see.

Rusty

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