Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s talk about Tea Break, but in feet and miles per hour. It’s a grim outlook.

The whole 16-day forecast is dominated by a constant onshore breeze out of the east, with a cross-shore wind that’s going to mess up the surface. The swell is coming from the east, which is the worst direction for this reef. Water temp is about 83°, which is normal for the time of year.

Thursday the 30th of July starts with a 4ft swell from the east, but the period is a short 7 seconds. The combined energy is weak (162), and with a 12 mph cross-shore wind, it’s just poor. The afternoon wave gets bigger at 6ft, but the wind jumps to 19 mph and the period drops to 6 seconds – even worse.

Friday the 31st of July and Saturday the 1st of August are the same story. Swell between 4ft and 6ft, periods never above 8 seconds, and that cross-shore wind blowing 12 to 19 mph. Wave energy is moderate (191 to 307). Still poor.

Sunday the 2nd of August is the least bad of the early days. Morning swell is 4ft with an 8-second period, and the wind drops to 9 mph. The combined energy is just 164. It’s not good, but it’s the lightest wind we see for a while.

From Monday the 3rd of August all the way to Wednesday the 13th of August, it’s a dead run. Swell heights bounce between 3ft and 6ft, periods are mostly 5 to 7 seconds, and the wind is a constant 12 to 19 mph from the east or east-northeast. The combined energy values are mostly moderate (100 to 277), but a few mornings drop into the weak range (41 to 91). Every session is tagged as poor surf.

There is one small glimmer. On Saturday the 8th of August, the morning shows a cross-offshore wind from the east-southeast at 12 mph. The swell is 4ft from the east with a 7-second period, and the combined energy is 159. The wind state is described as “clean.” It’s the only clean window in the entire 16-day forecast. But with that short period and the wrong swell direction, it’s still not good.

For the rest of the period, the afternoons are consistently lumpy and choppy with that fresh breeze. The mornings are moderate cross-shore with a cross-chop. It’s not surfable.

There’s no standout day here. The best is the morning of Saturday the 8th of August, because the wind finally tries to help. But the swell is small, short-period, and from the wrong direction. This reef needs a north-northeast swell to work, and we’re getting east. It’s a long 16-day stretch with nothing to get excited about.

Sorry, folks. Sometimes the ocean just doesn’t cooperate.

Rusty.

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