Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with ya—the next 16 days are a tough stretch for surf at Tea Break. The whole window is pretty much a write-off if you’re chasing quality waves.

We’re looking at a long, flat run with no real standout sessions. The first recommendation kicks off on Saturday, 11 July, but it’s grim from the get-go. The swell is there, around 5 ft from the east, but it’s short-period stuff (8 seconds) with a moderate cross-shore breeze at 12 mph putting a chop on the surface. The combined swell energy is moderate (227). The water temp is about average for this time of year. Conditions are labelled ‘poor’—and they are. This pattern sticks all through Saturday and Sunday, with cross-shore winds and lumpy, messy surf. The swell barely changes day to day, hovering between 3 ft and 5 ft, all easterly, with periods dropping as low as 5 seconds sometimes. That’s weak, choppy windswell. The combined energy mostly sits in the moderate range (values between 80 and 233), but none of it translates to anything rideable.

Monday 13 July through to Wednesday 22 July is more of the same: same east swell, same cross-shore breeze, same poor surf. There’s a brief moment on Friday morning 24 July where the wind eases to a gentle breeze (9 mph), but it’s still cross-shore, the swell is 5 ft with a 6-second period, and the energy is only moderate (148). It’s a slight improvement but still not worth paddling out for. The weekend of 25-26 July sees a tiny bump in swell height—6 ft on Saturday afternoon—but the period stays short (6 seconds) and the wind picks back up to moderate cross-shore (16 mph). The energy climbs to 231, but it’s messy, lumpy, and far from clean.

Throughout the whole period, winds are always cross-shore, never offshore. The waves are consistently described as ‘poor surf conditions’ with cross-chop. This spot is a reef break that’s consistent, but with the wind and short-period swell coming from the east, the optimum direction is NNE, so the alignment is off.

There’s no standout here. Not one day where I’d point you to the water. If you’re desperate, maybe the morning of 24 July offers the least offensive conditions with lighter breeze, but don’t expect anything good. Honestly, for a reef break with this setup, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The surf stays poor right through to Sunday 26 July.

Best advice? Find something else to do for a couple of weeks. Forecasts can change, but right now it’s a blank run.

Rusty.

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