Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the menu for Tea Break.

It’s been a quiet spell. The surf has been just about non-existent for the first week. That gap starts right now and runs all the way through to the morning of Wednesday the 25th of September. For over a week, all we’ve had is small, short-period windswell from the east, usually no bigger than about 4ft, but those waves were crossed up with messy onshore winds of 12 to 16 mph. The energy was weak to moderate, with readings from 19 to 141, and those southeasterly breezes kept the surface choppy. Not one session worth getting wet for.

Now, for the first bit of movement, the morning of Wednesday the 25th of September offers a small glimmer. The swell is still tiny at 2ft from the east, but the wind is light and cross-offshore. The combined energy is low at 57, and the comment is "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions". It’s not a standout, just the end of a long dry run. The afternoon stays weak but bumps up to 3ft east swell with 143 combined energy, though the wind swings cross-shore again.

But the real story – the standout here, and it’s honestly the only one – kicks off on the morning of Saturday the 27th of September. A new groundswell fills in from the northeast, pushing 2ft to 3ft, but the period is long at 14 seconds and the combined energy jumps to 309-470. That’s moderate to strong wave energy directing into this reef. The water temp sits at a normal 84° for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

Now, this is a reef break that prefers wind from the south to be truly glassy. Unfortunately, we’ll have a moderate east breeze of 12 mph creating cross-shore conditions, which is a real bummer. The swell direction (NE) is pretty good for a reef that likes it from the NNE, but it’s not a perfect angle. The period is very long, and while that means better shaped waves with more punch, long-period northeast groundswell can be a handful on a reef, running a bit too straight. Plus, these waves are small, under 3ft, so you won’t be out of your depth. Crowds are "sometimes" possible here, so you might have a few friends out.

For the standout: that Saturday the 27th and into Monday the 29th of September is your best bet. The swell holds around 3ft to 4ft from the NE with 12-13 second period and solid energy (225-464). Mind you, the wind stays cross-shore, so it’s not perfect, but that groundswell is the best thing in the whole 16-day window. It’s promising, but with it being over a week out, we can’t lock it in just yet.

After that, the swell fades, and we’re back to tiny, unremarkable east windswell by the 30th.

So, truth is, it’s been a flat, frustrating run. The good news is that when the groundswell shows, it’s the real deal for a couple of days. If you’ve been waiting, the end of September is your window.

Rusty.

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