Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Tea Break. All the data we’ve got says it’s grim. There is zero surf on offer for the entire run. Not a single wave with a good score anywhere in the whole 16-day window.

We’re looking at a blank run that starts now and never really lets up. The first record is for Tuesday, July 14, and honestly, it sets the tone. The swell is coming from the east, which is cross-shore for this exposed reef break, but all the wind is also cross-shore, with nothing clean. The water temperature sits at 83°F, which is spot on average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

You want specifics? Let’s run through it. July 14, Tuesday morning, you’ve got 3 ft of east swell with a weak period of 8 seconds. Combined energy is a moderate 127, but the wind is a cross-shore breeze from the ENE at 12 mph. It’s not clean. Tuesday afternoon gets worse: wind picks up to 19 mph, swell period drops to a shocking 5 seconds, energy plummets to 66. It’s lumpy trash.

Wednesday the 15th looks no better – cross-shore wind, same east swell, still messy. Thursday the 16th has a morning swell height of 4 ft at 5 seconds period with energy at 93. Weak and bumpy. This pattern just repeats. Friday the 17th, 4 ft with wind. Saturday the 18th, the swell pushes to 5 ft in the afternoon with energy hitting 192, but the wind is still cross at 16 mph. It’s just not surfable.

By the end of the first week, Sunday the 19th, the afternoon energy climbs to 211 with 5 ft of swell, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore at 19 mph. Lumpy, choppy, no shape.

Into the second week, things don’t turn around. July 21, Tuesday, swell drops to 3 ft with 8 seconds period and energy of 96. Still cross-wind. July 22, Wednesday, it bottoms out: 2 ft with a 5-second period and energy of 48. That’s barely a ripple. July 23, Thursday afternoon jumps to 5 ft and 233 energy, but again, 19 mph cross-wind. Messy.

The only real spike comes on July 24, Friday afternoon: 5 ft from the east, period of 10 seconds – that’s not too shabby for period – and energy of 494. That’s moderate-to-strong energy. But even then, the wind is cross-shore at 16 mph and the forecast still says poor surf conditions. The swell direction is east, and this spot wants it from the NNE, so it’s off-angle. Won’t line up.

After that, we fade back into the same story. July 25, 5 ft and 291 energy in the afternoon, but still cross-wind. July 28, Tuesday morning, has the gentlest breeze of the whole run at 9 mph from the east, but it’s still cross-shore, and the swell is only 5 ft at 6 seconds. Not worth paddling out for. Wednesday the 29th closes it out with 5 ft and 5 ft swells and energy over 200, but cross-wind again.

Bottom line: this reef break relies on a clean offshore breeze to make those east swells work. And we never get it. Every single window has cross-shore wind. The waves will be crumbly, choppy, and have no proper face. Tea Break is a consistent break, so it’s rare to see such a long stretch of nothing, but sometimes the wind just kills it. For anyone who still wants to get wet, this setup with the consistent east wind and 5 ft+ of messy swell is actually better for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. That’s your honest truth.

Stay hopeful, forecasts can change, but right now, I’d leave the boards at home.
Rusty.

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