Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the Tea Break forecast. I’m going to be straight with you: this stretch of the 16-day window is a tough one. There are no real standout days for a solid paddle session. The conditions are consistently poor, and the scores across the board are as low as they get.

We start with Wednesday, August 26th, and for the first few days, the wind is a cross-shore breeze from the ENE, bumping up the ocean with a cross-chop. The swell is weak, mostly from the east, with wave energy that’s barely registering. The combined energy of all swells directed here is a meager 59 (weak energy) on Wednesday morning, pushing up to a modest 74 (weak energy) in the afternoon. Swell heights are around 2.6 ft to 3.6 ft, but the period is short, around 5 to 6 seconds, meaning the waves are choppy and lack any real push. It’s a “poor surf conditions” situation from the start.

Thursday, August 27th, and Friday, August 28th, show a slight uptick in energy. Thursday morning has a combined energy of 120 (moderate wave energy), with a 2.0 ft, 8-second east swell. By Thursday afternoon, it jumps to 217 (moderate wave energy) with a 3.6 ft, 8-second swell. Friday morning looks similar with 3.3 ft from the east at 8 seconds, and energy at 231 (moderate wave energy). But the wind remains a stubborn cross-shore, keeping the surface lumpy. The surf is still classified as poor.

Saturday, August 29th, brings a bit more size. The morning swell is 3.6 ft from the east at 6 seconds (energy 142 – moderate), and the afternoon gets up to 5.6 ft from the east at 6 seconds (energy 235 – moderate). However, the wind picks up to 18.6 mph in the afternoon, creating a fresh cross-shore with a lumpy cross-chop. It’s not clean, it’s not inviting.

Sunday, August 30th, and Monday, August 31st, are more of the same. The swell direction shifts slightly to the ENE on Monday, and the height holds at 3.9 ft to 4.9 ft. The wind is still a moderate to fresh cross-shore breeze. The energy for Monday afternoon hits 526 (strong wave energy), but it’s paired with a “marginal surf forecast” note. The cross-shore wind is still messing up the face.

We roll into Tuesday, September 1st, and things get a bit bigger. The swell comes from the east at 5.6 ft with a 10-second period in the morning (energy 561 – strong), and 6.2 ft in the afternoon (energy 660 – strong). That’s a decent amount of water moving. But the wind shifts to a cross-onshore direction from the NE and ENE, creating a fairly choppy surface. The breaks are still rated as “poor” or “marginal.” The longer period (10 seconds) suggests the swell has some groundswell character, but the cross-onshore wind is the spoiler here.

Wednesday, September 2nd, through Sunday, September 6th, the swell drops back down. Heights are between 1.6 ft and 3.3 ft, with periods as low as 4 to 9 seconds. The energy levels are weak to moderate (38 to 131). The wind stays mostly cross-shore or cross-onshore, light to gentle. The conditions are still categorized as “poor surf conditions.” There’s a risk of a thunderstorm on Wednesday afternoon and Friday afternoon, but it doesn’t save the waves.

Monday, September 7th, and Tuesday, September 8th, we see a shift in swell direction to the north and north-northeast. The size is small (1.6 ft to 3.0 ft), but the period is improving to 9 to 11 seconds. The energy is moderate, hitting 241 (moderate) on Tuesday afternoon. But the wind is a cross-shore or cross-onshore, and the surf is still poor.

Wednesday, September 9th, and Thursday, September 10th, show the best-looking swell of the entire forecast. The swell direction is from the NNE, with heights of 3.0 ft to 3.9 ft. The period is excellent, hitting 12 seconds on the Wednesday afternoon, and staying at 11 seconds on Thursday. The combined energy is strong: 596 (strong) on Wednesday afternoon and 328 (strong) on Thursday morning. This is a proper groundswell. But here’s the kicker: the wind is a moderate cross-shore breeze from the east, keeping the surface bumpy with a cross-chop. The forecast still says “poor surf conditions.” It’s a frustrating tease.

So, the honest truth: there is nothing in this 16-day window that I would recommend paddling out for. The action is consistently poor, with cross-shore and cross-onshore winds ruining every window of potential. The water temperature is around 84.2°F, which is about average for this time of year, but that’s the only thing that’s comfortable.

Even though Tea Break is a consistent reef break that’s exposed to the

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