Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I've been staring at this forecast for Tea Break and it's a tough one to sugar-coat. We've got a real flat spell on our hands, and for the next week and a half there's just nothing to get excited about.

Let's be honest, the outlook kicks off with a whole lot of nothing. From Wednesday the 26th right through to the start of September, the swell is just too weak and the wind is a problem. The combined energy is mostly in the low to mid 100s (like 69, 83, 161), which is barely enough to push a ripple. The wind is cross-shore or cross-on-shore every day, with a moderate 12 mph to 19 mph breeze, so the surface is always chopped up. The swell height is hanging around 3 ft to 5 ft, but the period is short, mostly 5 to 8 seconds, so it's just weak, messy windswell. The water temp is a warm 84°, which is about average for the time of year, so at least you won't need a hood. But honestly, the conditions are labelled "poor" every single day, so don't bother paddling out.

There's a bit of a change as we head into the second week, but it's still not good. On Monday the 31st of August, the afternoon swell jumps to 5 ft with a 12-second period, giving a decent energy reading of 723. That's a moderate groundswell, but the wind is cross-on-shore and choppy, so it's messy. It's a reef break, which can handle the longer period, but the wind ruins it. The first few days of September are a tease. The mornings of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th are all "poor" or "marginal" at best, with the swell hovering around 3 ft and the wind still cross-shore. The standouts, if you can call them that, are the mornings of Tuesday, 1st of September and Wednesday, 9th of September. On the 1st, the swell is 5 ft from the east with a 10-second period (energy 474) and a light 6 mph cross-on shore wind. It's still not clean, but it's the least choppy we've seen. Then on the 9th, the swell direction switches to NNE with a 4 ft, 11-second groundswell (energy 430) and a light 6 mph cross-shore breeze. That's a better direction for the break, which ideally wants NNE swell, and the light wind might keep it semi-clean. But the forecast is still "marginal" for both, so it's a gamble.

The setup here is a consistent reef, but it's rarely breaking well in this window. The cross-shore winds are persistent, and the swell just doesn't have the oomph or the right direction to make Tea Break anything special. If you're desperate, the mornings of the 1st and 9th of September are your only real shots, and even then, keep your expectations low. I wouldn't even bother with a board for the first week.

Rusty.

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