Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I'm looking at the charts for the next 16 days for Tea Break. Let's be straight with each other, this is a tough stretch.

For the first week, from Thursday 20 August right through to the end of the month, the story is pretty much all the same. We've got a constant easterly breeze, usually blowing 12 to 18 mph, right across the wave face. It's cross-shore, choppy, and just messy. The swell is there, hanging around 3 ft to 5 ft, mostly from the east with a short period of 5 to 8 seconds, but the wind ruins it. The combined swell energy is weak to moderate – often below 200 (141 on the 20th, 189 on the 21st). It's poor surf conditions, day after day. There's a glimpse of cleaner conditions on Sunday 23rd morning with a cross-offshore wind, but the swell is only 3 ft with a 6-second period, and the energy is a weak 72. Not enough to get excited about.

Things finally start to change around Wednesday 26 August. The wind shifts to a cross-offshore direction, and the water cleans up. The swell bumps up to 5 ft to 6 ft, with periods stretching to 7 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 235–307. It's still just a "marginal" call, but it’s the first time the ocean looks like it might have a proper wave face. The 6 ft on Wednesday afternoon is the biggest we've seen, but it's still a short-period east swell, so it'll be a bit lumpy underneath the surface.

The real standout, the one shred of hope in this whole 16-day run, is the morning of Tuesday 1 September. The wind drops to a gentle 9 mph from the ENE, still cross-shore, but much lighter. The swell is only 3 ft, but the period stretches out to 10 seconds – that's a groundswell. The combined energy is a solid 231 (moderate). It's the most promising session we've got. The water temp is around 84°F, which is about normal for this time of year.

After that, it fades again. The wind picks back up, and the swell energy drops right off. The 2nd and 3rd of September have weak energy – 73 and 66 – and short, choppy waves. By the 4th of September, we're back to the same old story.

Honestly, if you're a paddler, this is a tough 16 days. The wind is the enemy. The setup here is a reef break, but with a constant cross-shore wind and short-period east swell, it's going to be a battle. If you're into kite surfing, these conditions – strong, consistent cross-shore wind and a bit of a bumpy sea – might actually look more fun than a paddle surf.

So, for the surfers, the best bet is that Tuesday 1 September morning. It's a long way off, but the lighter wind and longer period swell give it some promise. It's the only moment that looks like it's worth a look.

Rusty.

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