Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get stuck into it. To be honest, it’s a bit of a rough stretch ahead for us here. The wind is just pinned onshore from the east for the bulk of the next 16 days, and that’s got Tea Break looking all chopped up and messy. The water’s sitting at 84° which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Looking at the first week, from Friday the 7th right through to Thursday the 13th, it’s just a write-off. We’re looking at chest-high waves, 3 to 4 feet, but all of it’s coming in short and crumbly with periods of 6 to 8 seconds. The cross-shore wind is 12 to 19 mph, and it’s got that lumpy cross-chop on it. The energy is weak to moderate at best, and the call is just poor surf. If you’re thinking of paddling out, you’ll be fighting the wind more than riding the waves. It’s one of those periods where the ocean looks inviting from the sand, but it’s a lie once you’re out there.

The swell does start to pick up a bit on Friday the 14th, pushing to 5 to 6 feet, and the energy climbs. But the wind is still all over it, blowing 16 to 19 mph from the east. So it’s bigger, but it’s not cleaner. It’s just a bigger mess.

Now, there’s a small window that shows a bit of promise. Saturday the 15th morning, we get a 7-foot swell from the east, with the period stretching out to 9 seconds. The energy jumps up to a solid push. But again, that easterly wind, 16 mph, is cross-shore and ruining the surface. The call is only “marginal” at best, and the tide has to play nice. If you’re desperate, you could go and look, but it’s not the one to get excited about.

The real standout of the whole run looks like it’s going to be Tuesday the 18th. We’re seeing 7 feet of east swell, and the period stretches out to a proper 10 seconds. That’s a real groundswell, and it’s got some energy behind it too. The wind drops off to a gentle 9 mph breeze, still cross-shore, but it’s much lighter, so it should be a bit cleaner. The call is still only “marginal,” but this is the best of the bunch. That longer period is going to make it hold up better at Tea Break, and even though it’s a reef, it should offer some decent shape. It’s not a classic, but it’s the only morning in the whole 16 days I’d be circling on the calendar.

After that, it fades again. Wednesday the 19th drops back to 4 feet, and by Friday the 21st we’re down to 4 feet of short-period slop with only 5-second periods. The energy just dies. It’s back to the same old story of poor surf and onshore wind. The last few days of the run, Saturday the 22nd, is barely a ripple, 3 feet, with nothing behind it.

So there you have it. A long, flat and bumpy run. The only real chance for anything half-decent is the morning of Tuesday the 18th, and even then, it’s not a certainty. But it’s something to keep an eye on. The rest of it, you might as well find something else to do.

Rusty.

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