Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your board, it's Rusty here. Let's be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper surf. We've got a solid stretch of waves on the way, but the wind is going to have its say, and it's going to be ugly for a while.

We're looking at Tea Break, a consistent reef break, and the main issue is that we're seeing a persistent cross-shore wind pattern for the entire forecast. It's not a quick passing thing either. From the get-go on Wednesday morning, it's a cross-shore breeze with a cross-chop, making for poor surf conditions. You'll see the swell hanging around the 3ft to 3ft mark, but with that wind, it's going to be a mess. The water is a warm 84°, which is about normal for this time of year, so at least you won't need a hood.

Thursday and Friday aren't offering any relief. The swell bumps up a bit, hitting 4ft on Thursday morning, but the wind stays cross-shore, keeping the surface chopped up. It's the same story through the weekend: waves in the 3ft to 5ft range, but the wind just won't cooperate. We're looking at a solid week of this, with the wind staying cross-shore and the wave quality staying poor. The energy is weak to moderate during this stretch, with the combined swell energy values staying below 200, so it's not like there's a ton of power behind it either.

Around the 13th and 14th, the swell starts to push a bit higher, getting up to 6ft on the Thursday afternoon and 6ft on Friday. The energy also jumps, with the combined swell energy reaching 298 and then 370, which is a sign of more powerful stuff. But the wind is still blowing cross-shore at 15-18 mph, so it's going to be lumpy and messy. If you're a kite surfer, this might be your window, because for us paddle surfers, it's going to be a battle.

The pattern holds into the second week. From the 15th through the 17th, we see the swell staying solid at 5ft to 6ft with moderate energy in the 290-392 range. The wind, however, remains a persistent cross-shore, which just ruins the surface. There's a little bit of a reprieve on the morning of the 18th when the wind drops to a gentle breeze, but it's still cross-shore, and the swell is still 5ft. It's a small window of slightly less messy conditions, but I wouldn't get too excited.

The run continues to the 20th, with swell easing back down to 4ft-5ft, but the wind is still cross-shore. It's a long, frustrating stretch of poor surf conditions. The waves are there, but the wind is just constantly working against us. The period is mostly short, around 5-8 seconds, which means a less organized, more wind-blown wave. It's not until the 20th that we see a period of 8 seconds, which is a bit better, but the wind is still there.

So, the honest truth is, there are no standout days in this 16-day window. There's a lot of swell on the way, but it's all being trashed by the wind. The setup at Tea Break is just not interesting for the surfer. The forecast is poor, and it's consistent in that poorness. I'd say this is a good time to get other things done, or maybe look for a sheltered spot if you can find one. The forecasts can change, but as it stands, it's a blank run. I'll be watching it, but I'm not holding my breath.

Rusty.

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