Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing but cross-shore winds and short-period, wind-blown swell. The only spot on the radar is Tea Break, a reef setup that’s consistent, but it’s going to be a battle against the chop for a while.

The water’s sitting at 84°, which is about normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick suit.

The first week is basically a write-off. From Saturday the 8th right through to the 17th, we’re looking at swell heights between 3ft and 6ft, but the period is stuck down at 5 to 8 seconds. That’s just wind-slop, not real surf. The wind is coming out of the east to east-northeast at 12 to 22 mph, and it’s cross-shore the whole time, which is going to leave the surface chopped up and lumpy. The combined energy is weak to moderate, but it’s not doing us any favors. It’s just messy out there. For anyone thinking about a kite, this setup is honestly more interesting for that than for a surfboard.

Now, there’s a little glimmer of hope on Tuesday the 18th. The swell picks up to 7ft to 7ft, and the period stretches out to 10 seconds. That’s a real step up in quality, with the combined energy jumping to a strong level in the morning. It’s still cross-shore, with a gentle breeze at 9 mph in the morning, which will help keep things a bit cleaner. But the afternoon wind picks up to 16 mph, so the morning session is your best bet. This is the standout of the whole window, but it’s still only a “marginal” call, so manage your expectations. It’s a long-period groundswell for a reef, which is good, but the cross-shore wind will still be a factor.

After that, it fades again. Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th drop back to 4ft to 5ft with short periods, and the energy falls away. By Friday the 21st and into the weekend, we’re down to 3ft to 4ft, with periods of 5 to 6 seconds and the energy dropping to weak levels at times. It’s weak, it’s small, it’s messy. The wind does ease a bit to 9-12 mph, but it’s not enough to save it.

So, bottom line: the only real chance for anything half-decent is the morning of Tuesday the 18th. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s the best on offer. The rest of the time, you might be better off finding something else to do. This is a long, flat, and choppy spell. Forecasts can change, but as it stands, I’d be tuning up the kite gear or doing some yard work.

Rusty.

Read more