Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – this forecast window is a tough one. We're looking at a solid stretch where the surf just isn't playing the game. There's a real dry spell on the cards.

Looking at the whole 16-day run, it's not great news. The first recommendation isn't until Thursday the 20th of August, but even then, it's a no-go. The pattern is locked in with persistent easterly cross-shore winds and a messy, short-period windswell. The swell energy is weak, mostly bouncing around in the double digits, barely touching triple digits on a few afternoons. The first several days are a write-off.

We have a gap from the start right through to the end of the month with no decent surf. It’s not until the very end of the period, around the 31st of August, that we see a slight drop in wind, but still, the conditions are poor.

The only real standout to even talk about, and it’s more of a promise than a certainty, is Tea Break. This consistent reef break is exposed to that easterly swell, and it does like swell from the NNE, but we're not getting that. The wind is just never on our side.

For the first week, it's all cross-shore wind with a lumpy chop. The swell is small, generally around the 3 ft to 5 ft mark, but with periods as low as 5 to 8 seconds, there’s no power or shape to it. The water temp is sitting at 84°, which is pretty normal for the time of year, so at least a dip will be comfortable.

We do see a slight uptick in swell energy around the 26th of August, hitting 259, and then again on the 27th and 28th with readings in the 300s. But the wind stays messy. On the 26th morning we get a brief moment of clean conditions with a cross-offshore breeze, but the swell is only 3 ft with a short 6-second period, so it’s not worth the paddle out.

Further out, the first couple of days of September look just as poor, with small swell and the same onshore wind. There’s no point getting excited about any of this.

If you're desperate for a paddle, the only time the wind even thinks about easing is the morning of the 31st of August with a gentle breeze, but even then, it's cross-shore and the swell is a weak 3 ft at 8 seconds. It's not a recommendation.

Given the persistent onshore flow and weak, short-period swell, this setup honestly looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. For now, I'd leave the board in the car.

Rusty.

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