Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Okay, here’s the deal. The next couple of weeks at Tea Break are looking like a write-off for most of it. We’ve got a persistent cross-shore wind and a messy, weak swell that’s just not hitting this reef right. There’s energy out there, but it’s all over the shop, so don’t get excited just yet.

The first few days, the 9th and 10th, are a total washout. We’ve got a small, short-period easterly swell, around 4ft to 5ft, but it’s crossed up and choppy. The energy is weak to moderate – we’re talking 155 to 210 – and the period is only 6 to 7 seconds. It’s just a jumbled mess. Not worth paddling out.

The middle of the week, the 11th and 12th, stays small and weak, with the same cross-shore wind. The energy drops to as low as 78 on the 12th, which is next to nothing. The swell is barely 3ft, and the period is still short. It’s a grind.

Now, the size starts to build, but the quality doesn't. From the 13th through the 15th, the swell picks up, peaking on the 14th with a 6ft to 7ft easterly swell. The combined energy jumps up to 475 to 521, which is strong. But the wind is still cross-shore, and the period is only 8 seconds. It’s just a big, bumpy, onshore mess. This is one of those swells with all the power and none of the shape. It’s going to be a battle and not much fun.

The swell stays solid through the 16th and 17th, but the cross-shore wind and poor quality stick around. The energy is still strong, in the 400s, but the 9-second period doesn’t help. It’s all just crumbly and bumpy.

Now, here’s the first glimmer of hope. On the morning of the 18th, the period jumps up to 12 seconds, and the energy peaks at 809. That’s a proper groundswell pulse. The size is a decent 5ft to 6ft, but the wind is still cross-shore, and the rating is only a 2 out of 10. It’s still marginal, but that longer period is a sign that a better swell might be brewing. The afternoon of the 18th and the 19th keep that longer period, but the energy drops and the wind stays cross-shore, so it’s still not there.

Then, on the morning of the 20th, we finally get a bit of relief. The wind goes glassy, and it’s a “slight air.” The swell drops to 2ft to 3ft, but for a short window, it’s clean. The energy is weak at 99, but if you’re desperate, that’s your moment. After that, it’s back to the same old story – small, weak, and cross-shore – right through to the 24th.

So, the bottom line is, there’s nothing here that’s going to get your heart racing. The only time the conditions might be even slightly surfable is that glassy window on the morning of the 20th, but it’s tiny. The bigger swells later in the run just get ruined by the wind. This is a classic case where the setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, at least for the bulk of the period.

Keep your board in the car, but don’t be surprised if you don’t even bother. The forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more