Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. We’re looking at a pretty grim stretch ahead for the next couple of weeks. I’ve got the Tea Break forecast in front of me, and honestly, it’s a tough watch. The swell direction is coming from the east for the most part, which is not what this break likes—it needs that north-northeast energy to really light up. I'd say you can probably leave the boards in the car for a while.

The first few days, right up through the start of next week, are just junk. We’re looking at small, short-period windswell, nothing over 3ft on Saturday morning and even smaller Sunday. The wind is a cross-shore breeze, which is messing up an already poor surface. The water temp is sitting at a warm 85°F which is about normal for this time of year, but that’s the only thing that’s normal. The energy is weak, too – only about 71 units on Saturday morning, and it just doesn’t get much better. This is a wasteland.

There’s a bit of a bump in size around the middle of next week, with the swell pushing up to about 5ft on Wednesday afternoon, but the period drops to 6 seconds. That’s just windswell, not any proper groundswell. And what makes it worse, the wind is picking up to a fresh 19 mph, making the surface lumpy and cross-chop. It’s not worth the paddle. Even the "moderate" wave energy readings in the 100-200 range feel like a tease because the quality is just so poor. We’re talking about a lot of closeouts and frustration.

The following weekend, the 12th and 13th, the swell gets a touch bigger, around 6ft on Saturday afternoon. But don’t get excited. With that size and a short period, plus fresh cross-shore winds, that’s a messy, bumpy, and powerful closeout machine. That’s not a surf session; that’s a washing machine. At that size, with that wind, looks more interesting for the kite surfers than for us paddle surfers. It’s just not a safe or fun option.

The conditions do settle down a bit in the second week, with winds easing back to a gentle breeze in a few spots. The swell stays around the 3ft mark, but it’s still short-period and cross-shore. Honestly, it’s all much of the same. There are a couple of moments where the energy gets to a moderate level, like 178 units on the 15th afternoon, but the direction is still wrong. It never comes from the north, and it never gets that long period we need to make Tea Break work.

As we get out to the 19th and 20th, it all just fades away. The swell drops right off to 0.3ft on Saturday morning, with a pitiful 2 units of energy. It just completely flatlines. So, what’s the call? There are zero good surf options in this 16-day window. Zilch. I know that’s a bummer to hear. But keep your chin up. This break is normally a consistent one, and when it’s on, it’s on. Forecasts can change, and this blank run is more of a temporary lull than a permanent state. But for now, you might want to find other things to do. This is Rusty, signing off.

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