Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty. Look, I’ve gotta level with you — this next couple of weeks at Tea Break is mostly a write-off if you’re hoping for anything clean and decent. The cross-shore winds are stubborn, hanging around from the east and east-northeast most days, and the swell’s coming in short-period, messy stuff that never really locks in. There’s a long, flat-ish gap right through the end of August and into early September where you’ll be lucky to find a wave worth paddling for. The water’s sitting around 84°, which is about average for this time of year, so you won’t be freezing your toes off, but it’s the lack of quality that hurts.

Friday 28th August kicks things off with a 4ft east swell at a weak 5-second period, cross-shore wind at 19 mph, and the combined energy is only 134 — that’s weak energy and ugly conditions. Saturday 29th and Sunday 30th are more of the same: 4ft to 5ft, period between 6 and 8 seconds, winds never letting up. The energy climbs into the low 200s but the quality stays poor. Hardly worth waxing the board.

Monday 31st August sees a bump in size — 7ft to 8ft from the east-northeast and east, period up to 10 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 914 and then 1466, which is moderate to strong wave energy. But it’s still cross-shore wind all day, and the wave comment is only “marginal.” That size with that wind? It’ll be a lumpy, bumpy mess. For beginners, anything over 5ft is pushing it, and 8ft is expert-only territory, but even experts won’t love this setup. This spot is a reef break, so the longer 10-second period might produce a bit of shape, but the cross-chop will spoil it. Avoid it.

Tuesday 1st September through the first week of September is a slog. Swells hover between 3ft and 4ft, periods mostly 5 to 8 seconds, and the energy drops into the double digits by Thursday 3rd (102) and Friday 4th (35 to 67). Winds stay cross-shore. It’s a dead zone. By Monday 7th September there’s a little flicker — 4ft from the east at a 10-second period, combined energy of 371, and here’s the big news: glassy conditions. That Monday morning, the wind is calm, the water’s clean. That’s your standout window for the whole outlook. It’s not big, but with clean conditions on a reef break, those 10-second intervals will give you proper waves. Crowds are possible here, so you might have company. But honestly, it’s the best it gets.

The rest of the second week fades back into cross-shore winds and inconsistent, short-period junk. Tuesday 8th has a clean-ish morning with a cross-offshore breeze and 3ft from the east, but it’s tiny. Wednesday 9th through Saturday 12th September is back to cross-shore chop, 3ft to 5ft, periods 5–8 seconds, energy in the low 200s. Not worth chasing.

So here’s the truth: the only real chance for a surf is Monday 7th September morning. It’s a week and a half away, so keep an eye on it. Otherwise, you’re looking at nearly two weeks of poor conditions. For paddle surfing, this ain’t your spot right now. If the wind keeps howling, a kite might have more fun out there.

Stay patient, Rusty.

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