Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me have a look at what we’ve got for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, mate, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – the outlook is pretty grim. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf conditions that just doesn’t let up. It’s one of those periods where the ocean just doesn’t want to cooperate. The only break on the cards is Tea Break, a reef setup that’s usually consistent, but it’s not going to save us this time.

For the first few days, starting Friday the 4th of September, the swell is tiny and weak. You’re looking at waves around 2 ft to 4 ft, coming from the east with a short, weak period of 4 to 8 seconds. The combined energy is all over the shop, from a pathetic 27 (weak) up to 133 (moderate) but it just doesn’t matter because the wind is a cross-shore breeze, not helping at all. The water is sitting at a warm 85°, which is pretty normal for the time of year, but that’s the only thing that’s average.

Saturday and Sunday are much the same – small, weak east swell, cross-shore winds, and the wave comment is just “poor surf conditions” across the board. This will be a frustrating paddle for not much reward.

The situation doesn’t really improve into the next week. By Monday the 7th, we see a bit more energy, with the combined swell energy hitting 110 (moderate) in the morning, but the swell is only 3 ft and the period is still short. The wind stays cross-shore, and there’s even a risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon. By Tuesday the 8th, the swell drops back to 2 ft with a period of 10 seconds, but the energy is weak at 88. It’s a real tease.

There’s a slight bump in the middle of the week. On Wednesday the 9th, the afternoon swell picks up to 5 ft from the east, with a period of 6 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 242 (moderate), which is the strongest we’ve seen, but it’s still a short-period wind swell, and the wind is a moderate cross-shore. It’s messy. Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th keep that 5 ft to 7 ft swell going, with energy readings in the 240 to 327 range, but again, the wind is just cross-shore, chopping it up. The period stays short, between 6 and 8 seconds.

From Saturday the 12th, the swell starts to fade again. The 12th itself has a weird mix – a 4 ft east swell in the morning, then a tiny 0.7 ft pulse from the north-northeast in the afternoon. The energy absolutely tanks to 6. It’s barely a ripple.

The second week is more of the same story. From Sunday the 13th through to the 19th of September, we see a repeating pattern of east swell around 3 ft to 4 ft, with periods mostly between 5 and 8 seconds. The energy readings are mostly in the weak to moderate range (37 to 185). The wind is a constant cross-shore, with a few moments of “clean” conditions on the morning of Friday the 18th, but the swell is only 2 ft. It’s not enough to get excited about.

There is no standout session here. The biggest swell we see is 7 ft on the afternoon of the 11th, but with a 6-second period and cross-shore wind, it’s just a lumpy, choppy mess. That kind of size with that period is not going to give you any decent shape. And remember, anything over 5 ft is already getting big for beginners, but quality is so poor it doesn’t matter who’s looking at it.

Focus on the fact that Tea Break is a reef, so it needs a clean swell. With this constant cross-shore wind and short-period chop, it’s just not going to work. If you’ve got a kite, you might find some fun in the wind, but for paddle surfing, this is a solid 16-day blank. With the break being consistent, it’s a bit unusual to have such a long run of nothing, but it happens. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d say save your energy.

Rusty.

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