Tea Break Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I’m looking at a pretty grim stretch ahead. The forecast is a long, flat run of poor surf conditions with no real standout sessions. The only break on the radar is Tea Break, a reef setup that’s consistent and exposed to the swell, but it’s not doing us any favours right now.

Starting from Sunday, 19 July, we’ve got a weak, short-period swell coming in from the east at about 4 ft, with a period of just 7 seconds. The wind is cross-shore from the east at 12 mph, and the combined energy of all swells is only 164 (moderate), but the water is a warm 83°F – about average for the time of year. It’s messy out there, with a cross-chop, and the surf is just poor. This continues through the next day, Monday 20 July, with similar 4 ft to 5 ft east swell, still cross-shore, and still poor.

Tuesday, 21 July, drops a little to 4 ft, then Wednesday 22 July sees the swell shrink to 3 ft to 3 ft, and the energy drops to 97 (weak). The wind is still cross-shore, and the surf quality is terrible. This pattern of weak, short-period, cross-shore chop just keeps repeating day after day. By Thursday, 23 July, the swell bumps up to 5 ft in the afternoon, but the period drops to 6 seconds, and the energy is 177 – still moderate, but the wind is up to 16 mph, so it’s just lumpy.

Friday, 24 July, has a similar story: 4 ft in the morning, building to 6 ft in the afternoon with a 6-second period and 19 mph cross-shore wind. The energy is 247 (moderate), but it’s a fresh cross-shore, creating a lumpy, ugly sea. Not a wave you want to paddle out in.

The rest of the week into early August is more of the same. Saturday, 25 July, has 4 ft to 5 ft, and from Sunday, 26 July, through to Thursday, 30 July, we see a bit of a period increase to 8 seconds on some days, but the wind never lets up – it’s always cross-shore, and the water is still poor. The energy on Wednesday, 29 July, morning spikes to 318 (moderate), but the swell is only 4 ft at 8 seconds, and the wind is still a problem.

By Friday, 31 July, we’re looking at 4 ft to 5 ft, and then into the first week of August, the swell drops off significantly. Saturday, 1 August, has 4 ft to 5 ft but with a 5-second period and 19 mph wind – that’s barely a wave. Sunday, 2 August, the energy plummets to 64 (weak), and Monday, 3 August, the swell is down to 3 ft with a 4-second period and energy of just 31 (weak). The whole window is a washout.

There’s no standout, no hidden gem. The reef at Tea Break is consistent, but with these conditions – cross-shore wind, short period, and poor quality – it’s just not worth the paddle. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing right now, given the constant wind and chop. Don’t hold your breath; this area can go through blank runs, and this is one of them. The forecasts can change, but for now, park the board.

– Rusty

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