Saaga Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking rough for the Saaga (reef break) area. We’ve got a run of windy, messy conditions that’s gonna last most of the 16-day window.

The big issue is the wind. From Saturday 22 August through to Wednesday 27 August, every session is hammered by a fresh cross-onshore or cross-shore breeze, gusting from 19 to 25 mph out of the ESE and SE. That’s coming right across the face of the swell and making the surface lumpy, choppy, and pretty much unsurfable. The wave comment for all those days is “poor surf conditions” - which says it all.

The combined swell energy through that first week is moderate to strong, but it doesn’t matter when the wind’s trashing the surface. On Saturday 22 August, we’ve got a 5-foot S swell with 12 seconds period and energy reading 1431, but with that fresh cross-onshore, it’s just blown-out. It remains poor all week, even when the swell size bumps to 8 feet on Monday 24 (SE, 8 sec, energy 1382) and 7 feet on Tuesday 25 (SE, 8 sec, energy 1029). The swell direction is from S and SE, which doesn’t match the optimum SE direction shown for the break – so even the swell angle isn’t doing us any favours.

From Thursday 28 August right through to Sunday 31 August, it doesn’t really lift. Winds stay between 16 and 22 mph and cross-onshore or cross-shore. The surf is poor for most of that, with the exception of a few sessions on 30 and 31 Aug that rise to “marginal”. On Sunday 30 August, a bigger SE pulse hits 10 feet with a period of 9 seconds and energy reading 2548, but the wind is still a moderate cross-shore creating chop. That size (over 8 feet) is for experienced surfers only anyway, and with no clean face, it’s not worth paddling out for.

There’s a gap that runs from Monday 1 September through to Wednesday 3 September where we get a bit of a drop-off – swell height falls to 3–6 feet, but the wind stays cross-onshore or cross-shore, so the quality is still poor or marginal at best.

Finally, Thursday 3 September to Friday 4 September shows a slight flicker of hope. We start to see a SW groundswell peaking at 4 feet with a very long period of 16–19 seconds and energy readings between 1397 and 1417. The wind is a moderate cross-shore, described as “cross-shore with a cross-chop”. Not clean, but the very long period gives the swell a lot of power and shape – these SW long-period groundswells are best on a reef like this. The scores for those two days are the highest of the whole forecast (2 out of 10), which tells you everything about how bad the rest is. Friday 4 September (morning and afternoon) is the best on offer, but it’s still marginal.

One thing worth noting: the water temperature anomaly is not given in the numerical data, so I can’t tell you if it’s warm or cold for this time of year – but the water temperature will be what it is. For Saaga, the break is rated “consistent” and the optimum swell is from SE, which is not what we’re getting for most of the period. The crowds are “sometimes” present, but this is an advanced reef break and the conditions are poor, so I wouldn’t expect too many out there.

Honestly, if you’re determined to get wet, the best bet is Friday 4 September when the SW groundswell (16–19 sec period) hits 4 feet with a moderate cross-shore wind. It’s not going to be glassy, but it’s the best on offer. Otherwise, most of this window is a write-off. The setup looks more tempting for kite surfing than paddle surfing with these strong cross-shore winds.

For Saaga, through the whole period, we see a massive gap from Saturday 22 August to Thursday 3 September where you’d struggle to get a wave worth mentioning. The long-range Friday 4 September session is promising but far from certain this far out.

Stay patient,
Rusty.

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