Saaga Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I gotta be straight with you – the outlook for Saaga (reef) is a long, frustrating wait, but there’s a flicker of light at the very end.

We’ve got a solid 16-day window here, but it’s a real test of patience. From Saturday, August 8th, right through the following week, it’s a write-off. The wind is relentless, hammering from the SE and ESE, mostly cross or cross-onshore, often hitting 19 to 31 mph, with a near gale on the first day. That’s blowing the life out of a decent sized swell that’s actually in the water. You’ll see 8 to 10 ft of swell from the S and ESE, but the combined energy is huge (2555 to 4626) – it’s just a messy, blown-out lump. Not worth a look. There’s a very long period, 16-second groundswell hitting on Monday, August 10th, but with that strong cross-shore wind, it’s just creating a dangerous cross-chop. This is kite-surfing weather, not paddle surfing.

We slog through a whole week of this. The wind eases slightly into the second week, but it’s still cross-shore. The swell drops back to 3 to 5 ft, and the energy drops too (down to 563-956). It’s still lumpy and messy. Honestly, from August 8th right through to August 19th, the surf quality is just poor. There’s a gap of about 12 days where I wouldn’t bother paddling out.

Now, finally, we get a bit of hope. Mark your calendar for Thursday, August 20th. The wind finally swings around to the NE, light and cross-offshore. For the afternoon session, we’re looking at a clean 4 ft swell from the S, with a super long period of 15 seconds. The combined energy still has some punch (1565). This is excellent for experienced surfers. That long period will make it a bit tricky – it’ll be walling up and might be a bit too fast and straight for the beach breaks, but on a reef setup like Saaga, it should be really good. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

The good news carries into Friday, August 21st, with clean 4 ft swell from the S again, though the wind is a bit stronger. The crowd factor at Saaga is listed as "sometimes," so you might have a few others out there, but with that clean, offshore wind, it’ll be worth it.

After that, the weekend of August 22nd and 23rd looks a bit more marginal again as the wind turns back onshore. So, the real standout is that Thursday afternoon session on August 20th. It’s a long way off, but it’s the only window in this whole stretch that’s got the clean conditions and the swell to make it genuinely good.

Rusty.

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