Surf Forecasts:
Rabbit Island surf forecast from 16 Sep 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 17 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 7s period, N swell with 254 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Rabbit Island this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Rabbit Island in the next 16 days are 1.7m 7s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 19) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Thu 17th Sep) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 7s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Rabbit Island over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Let’s get real about the next couple of weeks. I’ve had a good look at the charts, and honestly, it’s a pretty bleak run for Rabbit Island. There’s not a single day where the surf gods are truly smiling on us. We’re looking at a long, dry spell, and for the most part, you’re better off finding something else to do.
The first small pulse of swell arrives this Wednesday afternoon, but it’s weak. We’re talking about 3ft of northwest windswell, and the energy behind it is tiny. The wind is glassy though, so it’ll be clean, but with that short 5-second period, it’s going to be weak and crumbly. Not worth paddling out for, honestly.
Thursday and Friday continue in the same vein. There’s a bump in size on Thursday afternoon – 5.6ft from the north – but the wind is onshore and the period is a lowly 7 seconds. It’s going to be a messy, blown-out mess. The wind energy picks up, but that’s not doing us any favors with the wind. Friday drops right back off. The glassy conditions on Friday morning are a tease, but there’s barely any swell to ride.
The entire first week is just a write-off. We’ve got a few days with absolutely nothing, and the small bits of swell that do show up are all poor quality. It’s a real test of patience. The next proper pulse of swell doesn’t show up until the 30th of September. That’s the one day that has a bit of promise. A 4.6ft northwest swell with a 6-second period and moderate energy. It’s still not big, and the period is still short, which means it’ll be a bit crumbly at the break. But after a week and a half of nothing, you might be desperate enough to give it a go. The wind will be onshore, though, so don’t expect perfection.
Rabbit Island is an inconsistent spot at the best of times, and this is one of those stretches where it’s better to leave the board in the car.
This is a brutal forecast, folks. Keep the wax dry and wait for the next season shift.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed afternoon, min 7°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Sat night. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 7°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Wed 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | Tuesday 22 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 5 | N 5 | N 6 | N 7 | NNE 8 | N 8 | N 7 | N 7 | NNW 15 | NW 6 | NNW 5 | NW 14 | NNW 15 | NNW 16 | NNE 3 | NNE 4 | NW 15 | NW 15 | ENE 3 | NW 16 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 39 | 23 | 123 | 254 | 120 | 29 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 43 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | glassy | on | on | glassy | glassy | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | off | off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-off |
High Tide | 1:16AM3.67m | 1:33PM3.69m | 1:56AM3.41m | 2:10PM3.48m | 2:45AM3.16m | 2:53PM3.23m | 3:50AM2.98m | 3:58PM3.01m | 5:13AM2.93m | 5:51PM2.93m | 6:32AM3.02m | 7:22PM3.10m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:37PM1.08m | 7:08AM1.14m | 7:12PM1.33m | 7:47AM1.37m | 7:57PM1.58m | 8:35AM1.59m | 9:04PM1.80m | 9:36AM1.77m | 10:42PM1.89m | 10:58AM1.83m | 00:12AM1.83m | 12:30PM1.71m | 1:16AM1.66m | |||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  | |  | |  | | | | | | |  |  | | | |
 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — |
 | 6:16 | — | — | 6:17 | — | — | 6:19 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:21 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:22 | — |
mm | — | — | 2 | 8 | 7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 16 | 9 | 14 | 12 | 7 |
Feels °C | 14 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 3 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NNE 6 | — | — | NNE 8 | N 8 | N 7 | NNW 16 | NNW 15 | NW 5 | NW 16 | NNW 8 | NNW 15 | NNW 16 | NNW 17 | NNW 16 | NNW 5 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | ENE 3 |
| kJ | — | 3 | — | — | 120 | 29 | 17 | 24 | 23 | 11 | 10 | 19 | 148 | 171 | 116 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | N 11 | — | — | NNW 17 | NNW 16 | NNW 16 | N 7 | NW 7 | NNW 16 | — | NW 14 | — | — | NNE 3 | NNW 9 | NW 15 | NW 15 | NW 14 | NW 16 |
| kJ | — | 3 | — | — | 28 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 24 | — | 50 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 7 | SW 4 | N 10 | NW 4 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 5 | N 5 | N 6 | N 7 | SE 3 | — | — | — | — | NW 6 | NNW 5 | WSW 3 | — | — | — | NNE 4 | SW 3 | — | ENE 3 | — |
| kJ | 39 | 23 | 123 | 254 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 43 | 37 | 9 | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | — | 6 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 92 | 92 | 118 | 118 | 8 | 8 | 122 | 90 | 77 | 8 | 77 | 118 | 170 | 92 | 8 | 122 | 77 | 142 | 109 | 77 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Nelson - Tasman Bay | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Rabbit Island Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Rabbit Island provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Rabbit Island can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Rabbit Island surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Rabbit Island) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Rabbit Island may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Rabbit Island, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 11 km (7 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Blenheim which is 73 km (45 miles) away
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