Pavones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I'm gonna level with ya. For the next couple of weeks, Pavones is in a real funk. The long-period groundswell is ticking over, but it's just not coming together. We've got small, weak energy most of the time, and the wind is often from the wrong directions, ruining what little shape there is.

The best bet in the whole run is this Wednesday morning, the 16th of September. It's not massive at 2ft from the SSW, but that 16-second period has some push behind it. The kicker is the wind: dead calm, glassy as a lake. It'll be clean, but the combined energy is only 262, so it's underwhelming. This is a left-hand point break, which loves a long-period SW groundswell, but it's *inconsistent*, so patience is the name of the game. Even a beginner could get a few long, slow ones. Water temps are about average for this time of year, so a springy is fine.

Thursday morning the 17th holds a slim chance with a glassy 2ft and 14-second period (energy 208), but the afternoon turns onshore and it's all over. Friday the 18th is a write-off. Saturday the 19th starts with a tiny 0.9ft but a massive 19-second period (energy 160). It'll be clean in the morning, but that period is so long it might just roll right past the point. Sunday the 20th morning is glassy and clean again with 1ft (energy 210), but it's the same story – after lunch, the wind chops it up.

Monday the 21st has another clean early session with 1ft (energy 217), but again, the afternoons are busted. Tuesday the 22nd looks okay in the early hours and afternoon with glassy conditions and 1ft (energy 171 & 166), but the swell is tiny. Wednesday the 23rd morning is glassy with 1ft (energy 177), but then the afternoon brings a jump in size to 4ft, but it's a short, weak 7-second period and the wind goes cross-onshore. That's no good.

The rest of the outlook is a real dirge. There's a solid pulse of energy on the 24th (Thursday) – 8ft from the SW (energy 914) – but with a 8-second period and onshore wind, it'll be a choppy, closed-out mess. Definitely only for the experienced if you can find a wave, and even then, it looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. After that, from the 25th of September through to the 1st of October, it's a long stretch of poor conditions. The swell is small, the wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore, and the scores are all zeros. There's just nothing to get excited about.

It's a tough run for one of the world's famous lefts. The waves are there on paper, but the wind just kills it. We'll see if the forecasts change. Rusty.

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