Pavones Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks. Rusty here, and I'm lookin' at the next 16 days for our little slice of paradise. Let's be honest up front, it's a patchy one. The swell energy is ticking over but it's never really gonna get its act together for anything epic. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 86°F, so that's a nice bonus.

We kick off Wednesday the 5th. The morning is glassy with a tiny 2ft S swell, but the energy is weak (105) and the period is short, so it's not really gonna do much. The afternoon turns to rubbish with onshore wind. Not a wave to be had.

Thursday the 6th morning is glassy again, but the swell has dropped to 1ft. The energy is a bit better (126) and the period is up to 12 seconds, which is more promising. The afternoon stays clean with a cross-off breeze. Still, we're talking about tiny waves. It's surfable, but you'll be workin' for it.

Friday the 7th morning is the first real standout. We've got a long period groundswell – 18 seconds – coming from the SSW. The swell is only 1ft, but the energy is ramping up to 231. The wind is offshore and clean. Now, a long period swell like this at a point break like Pavones can be special. It'll be glassy, clean, and the long period means the sets will be lined up with long gaps between them. It's a morning where you might get a few sneaky, perfect ones if you're patient. The afternoon gets messy with cross-shore wind.

The weekend (Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th) stays small. The swell is 2ft with a long period of 14-16 seconds and the mornings are glassy. The energy is moderate (around 205-297). The same story continues Monday and Tuesday with the mornings offering glassy, surfable conditions on tiny but clean swells.

There's a bit of a gap of nothingness from Wednesday the 12th afternoon through to the following week. The afternoon winds turn onshore and ruin it.

The surf picks up again on the 14th and 15th (the weekend after next). Friday the 14th morning is glassy, the swell is 2ft from the SSW with a very long period of 18 seconds and energy hitting 309. That's a solid pulse of energy. The wave quality will be there, but the size is still small. Saturday the 15th morning is also glassy, 2ft from the SW with a 16-second period (322 energy). Again, these are the best bets of the second week. The afternoons are a write-off.

The final days, from the 17th to the 20th, are a repeat of the same pattern: tiny, glassy mornings with weak to moderate energy, then onshore winds in the arvo. The 20th has a bit more size, 3ft, but the period drops to 10 seconds, so it's a bit of a junky windswell.

So, for the standout, you have to be looking at the Friday the 7th morning. That long period groundswell with offshore wind on a point break is a rare combination, even if the size is small. For the second week, the mornings of the 14th and 15th are your best bet. The consistency is poor, but the forecasts can change. Keep your eyes peeled.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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