Lighthouse Right Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break this down for you.

To be honest, the next couple of weeks are lookin’ pretty rough for a decent paddle at Lighthouse Right (Noumea-Pass). From Sunday the 13th, it’s a whole lot of flat and choppy – poor surf conditions, with the wind howlin’ onshore or cross-onshore from the SE and ESE at 18 to 22 mph. That’s gonna leave the surface lumpy and messy, and there’s nothin’ worth paddlin’ out for. That dry spell runs all the way through Wednesday the 16th, with only a tiny tease of 1 ft from the SSW on Wednesday afternoon, but the wind is still cross-onshore, so no dice.

We finally see a pulse on Friday the 18th, but it’s not for the casual surfer. The swell jumps up – 7 ft in the morning, then 10 ft by the afternoon, both out of the SW with a solid 12-13 second period. The combined energy is massive: 1787 in the morning and a whopping 5005 in the afternoon (strong to very strong wave energy). That’s expert territory – way too big for beginners, and even intermediates are gonna be in over their heads. The wind stays fresh cross-onshore from the SSW at 18 mph, so the surface is gonna be lumpy and messy. This is one of those setups where it might be more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers – the power’s there, but the quality’s just not for us.

Saturday the 19th brings a weird little blip – the wind goes onshore from the SSW at 12 mph, but there’s basically no swell for the morning, and only a tiny 0.7 ft, 20-second groundswell in the afternoon. That long period (20 seconds!) would normally be a dream at a reef break like this, but at that size it’s barely gonna show. The combined energy is only 38 – weak as dishwater.

After that, it’s back to the doldrums. From Sunday the 20th through Wednesday the 23rd, we’ve got onshore and cross-onshore winds, mostly 12-18 mph, with only scraps of swell. The one little highlight on the 23rd morning is 3 ft from the SSW with a 15-second period and 259 combined energy (moderate), but the cross-shore wind from the ESE at 18 mph is gonna leave it lumpy with cross-chop.

Now, Thursday the 24th afternoon is the one that stands out as the best on offer in the whole outlook, but with a major caveat. The swell jumps to 10 ft from the SSW with a 17-second period, and the combined energy is massive at 4868. That’s serious groundswell energy. The wind is cross-shore from the ESE at 22 mph – still fresh, but the comment says wind and tide are favorable. However, it also says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. So, if you’re an expert and you know this reef inside out, maybe you can find a channel, but for 99% of us, this is a skip. That’s the only real standout, and it’s a risky one.

The rest of the run into the end of the month is more of the same – onshore or cross-shore winds, mostly moderate to fresh, and small to moderate swell (0.7 ft to 6 ft) with combined energy ranging from weak (44) to moderate (1418). Nothing that’s gonna make you rush to the water.

So, the long and short of it is: there’s a long gap of poor conditions from now until Thursday the 24th, and then one big, powerful but possibly too-big window for experts only. The water temp is 72°F, which is about average for this time of year – no surprises there. For everyone else, it’s a waiting game. Keep an eye on it – forecasts can shift, and it tends not to stay this flat forever.

Rusty.

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