Lighthouse Right Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle at Lighthouse Right (Noumea-Pass). There’s a lot of wind and chop on the cards, and not a whole lot of clean, rideable surf. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing much coming up, so if you’re keen, you’ll have to be patient.

The water temp is sitting at around 72°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick suit.

The first real chance of anything decent doesn't pop up until Wednesday the 11th. The swell is showing 4ft from the SSW with a long 21-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is a solid 1291, which is moderate-to-strong. But, the wind is a cross-onshore 12 mph breeze, so it’s going to be a bit lumpy and choppy. It’s a marginal call at best. Later that afternoon, the wind ramps up to 25 mph and it gets messy. Not worth it.

After that, we’re looking at a real dead zone. From the 12th through to the 17th, the models show very little swell, with combined energy values dropping to zero and only weak signals in the 78-119 range. The wind is relentless, coming from the ESE at 16-19 mph, making conditions rough and lumpy. There’s a tiny bit of 1ft to 3ft on the 16th and 17th, but it’s short-period junk and the wind is still ruining it. This is a stretch where it’s just not worth paddling out.

We finally see a pulse of proper swell arrive around Friday the 18th, with 5ft from the SSW at 13 seconds, and the energy building to 1249 by the afternoon. The problem? The wind is still on it – 16-19 mph cross-shore and cross-onshore, making it lumpy and messy. Saturday the 19th sees a slightly bigger 6ft from the SSW with a 15-second period, and energy at a healthy 1475. It’s got some push, but the wind is fresh and cross-onshore, so it’s going to be a battle. The period is long enough to suggest better shape, but this break can get a bit wonky with a long-period swell. It’s still onshore, so the surface will be poor.

The wind only gets worse as we head into the following week. Sunday the 20th has strong 28 mph winds and a risk of thunderstorms, with the swell up to 6ft but completely messy. This continues through the 21st and 22nd, with strong winds and lumpy conditions. The swell is there, 5-6ft, but it’s not clean. If the wind keeps up like this, it might be more interesting for a kite than a surfboard.

Towards the end of the run, on Thursday the 24th, things start to look a bit more hopeful. The swell drops to 4ft from the SSW with a nice long 17-second period, and the energy is a solid 1067. The wind finally eases to a gentle 9 mph cross-onshore breeze. It’s not glassy, but it’s a lot cleaner than what we’ve had. It’s still a “marginal” call, but it’s the best looking window we’ve seen in a while. It’s far out though, so don’t bank on it just yet.

Overall, the best bet in this window looks like Saturday the 19th (the biggest swell), or that Thursday the 24th if the wind plays nice. Keep an eye on the forecast, but for now, don’t get your hopes up.

Rusty

Read more