Lighthouse Right Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's brewing for Noumea-Pass.

First off, I gotta be straight with you – this 16-day run is a bit of a heartbreaker. The opening week is pretty much a write-off. From Monday the 14th right through to Thursday the 17th, we're looking at poor surf conditions with next to no energy and ugly cross-shore or cross-onshore winds. The combined swell energy is basically zero, sitting at (0) for most of that stretch, and the wind is howling at 18 to 22 mph. It's lumpy, choppy, and just not worth paddling out for. That's four days of nothing.

Things start to get a little interesting on Friday the 18th. We get a big spike in swell – a solid 10 ft to 12 ft from the SSW, with a moderate period of 11 to 12 seconds. The combined energy jumps way up to between (4797) and (5472), so there's plenty of ocean moving. But here’s the catch: the wind is onshore from the SSE at 19 mph. That's going to make it messy and blown out, which is why the conditions are still marked as poor. At this size, over 8 ft, this is strictly for experienced surfers only, and with that wind, even for them it might be a battle.

Saturday the 19th morning is where we get the only real glimmer of hope in this whole outlook. The swell drops to a manageable 4 ft from the SSW, but the period stretches out to a very long 15 seconds – that's proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is (581), which is moderate. And here's the key: the wind is light from the SSE at only 6 mph, blowing offshore. That’s going to clean up Lighthouse Right (Noumea-Pass) nicely. For a reef break, that long-period SSW swell is a great match with the optimum direction from the WSW. This is the one true standout. A clean, offshore morning with a little groundswell pushing through. The water temp is 72°, which is just about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

Saturday afternoon the wind picks up a notch, and by Sunday the 20th we're back into cross-onshore breeze and flat spells. The rest of the week into the 23rd is a mix of tiny, short-period junk or flat spells, all with that annoying ESE wind.

There's a slight pulse again on Wednesday the 23rd morning, with 4 ft from the SSW at a long 14 seconds, giving us (1010) energy. But again, the cross-shore wind at 19 mph will make it lumpy and hard to enjoy. The conditions are only described as marginal.

After that, it’s mostly poor surf and strong cross-shore winds right through to the end of the 16-day window on the 29th. There's no real second standout. The long-range stuff in the last week shows tiny, long-period pulses but always with fresh wind ruining it.

So bottom line: if you're hanging for a wave, your best bet is to target Saturday morning, the 19th of September. It's not huge, but it'll be clean and rideable. The rest of the period is best spent on other things.

- Rusty

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