Lighthouse Right Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Look, straight up, this is a tough run for Lighthouse Right (Noumea-Pass). For most of this 16-day window, we’re looking at a whole lot of nothing. The first week is almost a write-off, with only one brief moment of hope before the swell gets too unruly.

We start off with a real flat spell. From July 9th through to the 10th, that super long-period 20-second swell from the SSW is just too weak, barely pushing 0.7 ft to 2 ft, and the wind is all wrong—on shore and messy. The combined energy is weak, so don’t even bother paddling out.

Then, on the morning of Saturday, July 11th, we get a tiny window. The wind goes glassy, dead calm from the SSW, and the swell is a clean 2 ft from the SSW with a 16-second period. This is a long-period groundswell, so those waves will have some shape and energy, and the glassy conditions mean it’ll be like velvet. The combined energy is 232—moderate—but for a reef break like this, that’s fun, manageable size. It’s a good moment for an intermediate surfer who wants a long, clean wall. The downside? It’s only for the morning; by the afternoon, the wind swings cross-on and kills it.

From the afternoon of July 11th all the way through to the afternoon of July 15th, it’s a total mess. Cross-shore winds, lumpy chop, and combined energy stays below 600. Even when the swell bumps up to 4 ft on July 15th, the 22 mph cross-shore wind from the east just ruins it. This is not surfable.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting, and a bit dangerous. On the morning of Thursday, July 16th, we finally get a real pulse of energy. The combined swell energy hits a massive 1421, with a 4 ft swell from the SSW at a very long 19-second period. The wind? Glassy from the WSW, which is a light offshore for this break. That’s going to be clean, powerful, and lined up. The wave comment says it’s for experienced surfers, and I’m telling you, this is the standout session of the whole outlook for the more advanced crowd. That long period makes it a true groundswell, perfect for a reef like Lighthouse Right, but be warned—it will be powerful and the sets will have some punch.

But it doesn’t stop there. Friday, July 17th, gets silly. The morning sees a 8 ft SSW swell with a combined energy of 2951, and glassy winds. By the afternoon, it’s 13 ft from the SSW with an insane combined energy of 6083. That is pure, unadulterated power. The file says it’s too big for this break, and for a reef pass like this, that’s 100% correct. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s going to be a washing machine. If you’re not a seasoned pro in heavy reef waves, do not even think about it.

After that peak, it drops back into flatness. The whole of July 18th shows no swell at all—just zeros. From July 19th to the 21st, we get some small rebuilds of 2 ft to 4 ft from the SSW, but the winds are ripping from the WNW at 16-19 mph. Despite the wind being cross-offshore, it’s just too strong for the size, and the combined energy tops out at moderate values. It’s not worth fighting that breeze for a small wave.

Finally, from July 22nd to the 24th, it goes completely flat again, with tiny 0.3 ft swell and no energy to speak of. The northerly winds aren’t helping either.

So, to sum it up: the entire first week is a bust. The one clear highlight for an intermediate surfer is the glassy Saturday morning, July 11th, with that clean 2 ft. For the experts, the absolute standout is the glassy, powerful 4 ft groundswell on the morning of Thursday, July 16th. The two days following that are only for the kamikaze crew in massive, oversized conditions. Otherwise, it’s a long dry spell.

Stay tuned, forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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