Lighthouse Right Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here again. Let’s break it down for the Noumea-Pass area. We’ve got a long stretch ahead, and truth be told, it’s a pretty grim start. The first real chance of any surf doesn’t pop up until Monday, July 6th, and even then it’s a struggle right through to the end of the 16-day run. There’s a big quiet gap at the beginning, so leave your board in the car for a while.

The overall picture is dominated by poor conditions. Lots of lumpy cross-shore chop and onshore wind messing things up. The one bright spot appears late, on Saturday, July 18th, but it comes with a warning. Up until then, it’s mostly marginal or blown-out slop.

Let’s take it day by day:

From now until Sunday, July 5th, it’s completely flat. No swell energy at all. The wind is a messy cross or cross-onshore breeze, and the water temp is about 23°, which is normal for this time of year. Nothing worth paddling for.

Monday, July 6th finally brings some life. Swell builds to 0.9m from the SSW in the morning, jumping to a chunky 1.7m by the afternoon. The period is a solid 12 seconds, so there’s some real groundswell energy. The combined energy hits moderate (426) then strong at 805 in the afternoon. But the wind is howling onshore at 25 km/h from the S. The report calls it poor surf, and I’d say that’s spot on. It’ll be a bumpy, blown-out mess at Lighthouse Right (Noumea-Pass). Hard pass.

Tuesday, July 7th is a wild one. Morning is flat and choppy. Then the afternoon brings a serious spike: 3.0m of swell from the SSW with a very long 17-second period. The combined energy is massive at 5523 – that’s very strong. This is big, powerful groundswell. That’s expert-only territory, and with a cross-onshore wind, it’s going to be wild and dangerous. Not a session for the faint of heart. Still marked as poor quality.

Things drop away from Wednesday, July 8th through Friday, July 10th. Small, weak pulses, mostly onshore wind. Energy stays low or moderate. Nothing to get excited about.

Saturday, July 11th to Sunday, July 12th sees tiny 0.4m to 0.7m swells, long periods (15 to 18 seconds), but with onshore wind. Energy is weak. Just tiny, blown-out lines.

Monday, July 13th to Tuesday, July 14th is more of the same: tiny, cross-onshore slop. Not worth a look.

Wednesday, July 15th brings a weird one: 1.3m from the S, but with a short, weak 5-second period. That’s pure windswell, and with a moderate cross-shore, it’s going to be a messy, gutless affair.

Thursday, July 16th and Friday, July 17th are completely flat again. Wind turns cross-offshore, which would be gorgeous if there were any waves, but there aren’t.

Now, the one to circle: Saturday, July 18th.

Morning brings 1.8m of swell from the SSW, with a solid 13-second period. The combined energy is strong at 1110. More importantly, the wind is a clean cross-offshore at 25 km/h from the WNW. That’s rare for this stretch, meaning Lighthouse Right could actually be clean and well-shaped for once. This is the standout. The swell is a bit big for beginners (over 1.5m), but for intermediate surfers, this could be a fun one. The period is good for a reef break like this, giving proper lines. The wind is brisk, so it won’t be glassy, but cross-off is a dream.

The catch? This is the last day in the forecast window. Saturday afternoon drops off to flat again. So if you’re keen, that Saturday morning session on the 18th is your best bet. Mark it.

Bottom line: It’s a long, flat, choppy wait. The 18th of July is the one day that looks promising, with clean, cross-off conditions and a solid groundswell. Everything else is either too small, too windy, or both.

Stay patient. Rusty.

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