Lighthouse Right Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve got to be straight with you – this 16-day window for Lighthouse Right (Noumea-Pass) is a slow grind, not a full-on blockbuster. Most days are a write-off with dodgy wind or just not enough juice. The water’s sitting at 73°, which is bang on normal for this time of year.

We’ve got a real dry spell to start. From Wednesday the 8th through to Saturday the 11th, it’s basically flat or rubbishy cross-onshore slop. Not worth paddling out. Thursday the 9th sees a tiny 0.7 ft to 1 ft swell creeping in, but it’s onshore and messy. By Friday the 10th, the swell edges up to 2 ft to 2 ft from the SSW, with a period of 19 to 20 seconds, giving us a bit of energy (253 to 312). Problem is, that cross-onshore breeze from the SSE is chopping it up.

Saturday morning the 11th is the first hint of something usable – a 3 ft SSW swell with a 16-second period and a light SE breeze. The energy’s moderate (330), but it’s cross-on, making for small wind ripples. Still, it’s marginal at best and the afternoon turns to rubbish again.

We cop a run of poor conditions from Sunday the 12th through to Tuesday the 14th. Fresh breeze from the east, fussing up a cross-chop on a small SSW swell. Not your friend.

Now, Wednesday the 15th gets a little more interesting. The swell builds to 4 ft to 4 ft from the SSW, with the period dropping to 12 seconds. The wave energy jumps up to strong (539 to 613). The wind swings ENE and goes cross-offshore, finally cleaning it up. But the forecast still tags it as poor surf – it’s big, lumpy energy and rough conditions.

The standout for the whole outlook is Thursday the 16th. That morning we’ve got a 4 ft swell from the SSW with a long 17-second period, and the wave energy is very strong (1098). The wind is cross-offshore from the NE. It’s going to be clean and powerful. This is a reef break, so that long period groundswell will wrap in nicely and push through with long, clean lines. The water temp anomaly is normal. It’s listed for intermediate surfers, and with waves around 4 ft, it’s approachable if you know the reef. Just be aware, crowds are possible.

The afternoon of the 16th holds similar size (4 ft, 16-second period, energy 907), still clean cross-off wind. Friday the 17th morning drops back to 2 ft with a 16-second period, but the killer part is the afternoon – glassy conditions with a 5 km/h SSW breeze. That’s rare. Expect clean, small, but workable 2 ft waves.

After that, it starts to fade. Saturday the 18th is rain and strong onshore wind – forget it. Through the 19th and 20th, the swell builds again, but the wind is messy. On Monday the 20th afternoon, the swell spikes to 7 ft from the WSW with a short 7-second period, and the energy is strong (627). The report says it’s too big for this break and the wind is cross-shore with chop – that’s more of a kite session. By Tuesday the 21st morning, it drops to 5 ft from the SW with a short 8-second period, light cross-off wind, and it cleans up – a decent option if you want something punchy but not too heavy.

The final week fizzles. Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd have some WSW swell (4 ft to 5 ft) but the wind and chop are ugly. Not worth it.

So to wrap it up: Thursday the 16th is your best bet – solid 4 ft SSW groundswell, strong energy, clean cross-off wind. Take Friday the 17th afternoon as a backup for a glassy, small session. The rest… you’re better off waiting.

Rusty.

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