Lighthouse Right Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve been staring at the charts for Noumea-Pass and honestly, it’s a bit of a tough stretch. The next week and a half is mostly a write-off, with a few flickers of hope that don’t quite deliver. We’ve got a long gap of poor conditions before a couple of days that might be worth a look, but even then, the wind is going to be a battle.

The water temp is sitting at 73°F right now, which is about average for this time of year – nothing to write home about.

The first real chance of a wave doesn’t show up until Saturday the 25th of July, with a tiny 1 ft of SSW groundswell, but it’s got a long 18-second period, so there’s some energy behind it (combined energy of 147). The morning wind is a clean offshore from the SSE, but it’s a moderate breeze, so not glassy. The afternoon gets messy with rain and cross-onshore winds. Honestly, it’s still rated as poor surf conditions.

Then we hit a dry spell. Most of the next week is a total blank – days of nothing but wind and chop. The wind is mostly cross or cross-onshore, with speeds up to 25 mph or 25 mph, making it a lumpy, choppy mess. There’s a morning on Friday the 24th of July that goes glassy, but there’s simply no swell to ride.

The next faint pulse comes on Sunday the 26th of July. The morning sees a 5 ft swell from the SSW with a 16-second period, giving a moderate energy reading of 1276. But the wind is a gentle cross-onshore, making it fairly choppy, and the forecast is only marginal. It’s not a day to get excited about.

We get another dry gap until Thursday the 30th of July. That morning, a 3 ft SSW swell (16-second period, 402 energy) rolls in with light cross-onshore winds. The afternoon improves a bit: 4 ft SSW swell (15-second period, 784 energy) with a clean offshore wind from the south. This is the best on offer in the first ten days, but it’s still only marginal. It’s a small, clean window for an intermediate wave.

Now, the biggest swell of the forecast shows up on Friday the 31st of July. The morning brings a solid 6 ft SSW swell with an 18-second period (very long period groundswell), and the energy jumps to 1966. The wind is only a gentle cross-onshore, so it’s fairly choppy but not destroyed. This is the standout for the break. However, it’s important to note that this is a reef break, and a long-period groundswell like this can sometimes make the wave break a bit too straight or fast on a reef. It’s definitely an expert-only wave at this size. The afternoon gets messy with the wind picking up to 19 mph, so get in the water early.

The weekend of the 1st of August offers more size, but the quality drops. The swell hits 8 ft from the SSW, which is big and powerful (energy of 2433), but the period drops to 14 seconds, and the wind is a moderate to fresh cross-onshore all day. This will be a bumpy, wind-affected mess – not worth the paddle.

After that, it’s back to a long, quiet spell. There’s a tiny pulse on the 3rd of August (3 ft from the SSW, 11 seconds), but it’s cross-onshore, and the rest of the second week is flat or near-flat with no real swell. The forecast ends with a glassy morning on the 6th of August, but the swell is a pathetic 1.0 ft with a 2-second period. It’s a dead calm, flat ocean.

So, to wrap it up: the only real standout is the morning of Friday the 31st of July at Lighthouse Right (Noumea-Pass). That’s your best bet for a clean, solid, long-period groundswell. If you’re an expert, get on it early. The 30th of July afternoon is a smaller, cleaner option for intermediates. Everything else is a skip or a fight against the wind.

Rusty.

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