Nera Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next couple of weeks in the surf.

Alright, let’s be straight with you. The forecast for Nera Rivermouth is a long, drawn-out period of mostly flat or poor conditions, with one real standout that’s a long way off. For the first week, from Saturday the 11th through to the morning of Friday the 17th, the surf is tiny and weak, with combined swell energy barely cracking 100 on the best days, and often sitting in the double digits. Winds are mostly cross-shore or cross-onshore, keeping things choppy and messy. The water’s at 74°F, which is about average for this time of year, nothing to get excited about.

We get a little bump on Thursday the 16th morning, with a 3ft SSW swell, but it’s a cross-onshore breeze and the rating is awful. Not worth the paddle.

The real standout is shaping up for Sunday the 19th of July. The morning sees a 4ft swell from the SSW, and the wind is offshore from the WSW, which is a major positive for a river mouth. That’s clean. The period is a very long 22 seconds, which is a proper groundswell, and the combined energy jumps to 1605. This is a decent swell but it’s pushing into the 5ft range, so it’s getting a bit too much for total beginners. The direction is SSW, which matches the optimum swell direction for this spot. It’s a river and beach setup, so a long period like this can make it break a bit straight, but the offshore wind should help. It’s inconsistent here, so don’t expect a constant wave train, but when they come, they’ll have some punch. The afternoon gets even bigger, with 5ft and the energy going to 2401, but the wind swings more directly onshore, making it much less appealing. The morning is the window.

After that, Monday the 20th turns to junk with strong cross-onshore winds, and the following days are a mix of small, weak, and onshore. There’s another pulse on Friday the 24th, with a 5ft SSW swell, but it’s onshore wind. The afternoon of the 24th sees a big 8ft swell, but it’s cross-onshore and messy, with energy over 3000, making it dangerous and only for experts. The following Saturday morning, the 25th, has a 6ft swell with light cross-onshore winds, but the quality is still marginal.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off. The only real chance for a decent surf is the early morning of Sunday the 19th of July. It’s a long-range call, so keep an eye on it, but that offshore wind and the long-period groundswell make it the one to circle on the calendar.

Rusty.

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