Nera Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak for a proper paddle at Nera Rivermouth. We’ve got a long stretch of onshore and cross-shore winds, lumpy chop, and a whole lot of nothing happening. The swell energy is there at times, but the wind is just going to tear it to pieces. You’re looking at a solid run of poor conditions, with only a couple of brief windows where things might line up.

We start off with a real dud. Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th are both write-offs. We're looking at 4ft to 4ft of SSW swell, but it’s fighting a cross-onshore breeze and the moderate wave energy (367 and 292) is just going to be messy. Friday the 11th stays in the same vein, with the energy picking up a bit (652 in the morning, 1253 in the afternoon), but a fresh cross-shore wind keeps it choppy and lumpy. Not worth your time.

Now, Saturday the 12th is where it gets interesting, but not for the right reasons. The morning shows a jump to 8ft of SSW swell with a strong wave energy reading of 3753. That’s a lot of water, but with a fresh cross-shore wind, it’s going to be a full-on washing machine. For the experienced rippers out there, it might be a session just to test your sanity, but for everyone else, it’s a hard pass. The wind is just too messy to make it work.

The rest of that first week stays poor. Sunday the 13th has an inconsistent 2ft morning, not doing anyone any favors. The afternoon bumps up to 4ft, but again, the wind is wrong. Monday the 14th is the first real glimmer of hope. The swell holds around 4ft from the SSW with moderate energy (1028 in the morning, 939 in the afternoon). The magic happens in the afternoon when the wind goes cross-off and the modeling calls the surf "clean." That’s your window. It’s not epic, but it’s the best we’ve seen in days. You’ll want to be on it before the next flat spell.

Then we hit a wall. Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th are looking flat as a pancake, with no swell to speak of. The energy is gone. Thursday the 17th offers only crumbs, with a tiny 1ft to 1ft swell. Not worth the drive. This is the gap you’ve got to plan around.

The standout of the whole period comes on Friday the 18th. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. The morning shows a clean 4ft SSW swell with a light cross-off breeze. The energy is moderate (425), but the wind is light and the forecast says "clean." This is the most promising window we’ve got. It’s not a monster, but with clean conditions, it’s going to be fun. The period is 13 seconds, so there’s some push behind it. It won’t be a world-class day, but it’s the best we’re likely to see. The afternoon is still okay, but the wind swings back around and it gets a bit more cross.

After that, it’s a steady decline back into the poor category. The weekend of the 19th and 20th is back to onshore winds and poor quality. Tuesday the 22nd sees a bit more size, 5ft, but it’s straight onshore. The long-range stuff, into the 24th, is a faint hope at best. The swell direction is still SSW, but the energy and wind just don't cooperate.

So there you have it. We’ve got one real window on the 18th, and maybe a second chance on the 14th if you’re desperate. The rest is a lesson in patience. It’s a long flat and messy run for us, but that’s the way it goes around here sometimes. The conditions can change, so keep an eye on it, but don’t hold your breath. This is Rusty, signing off.

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