Nera Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next 16 days are a real mixed bag, and honestly, there’s not a whole lot to get worked up about. The start of the period is dead flat, and it takes a while for any real energy to show up. The swell that does eventually arrive is coming from the SSW, which is right in the optimum direction for the Nera Rivermouth, but the winds are going to mess with it for most of the run. We’re looking at a long stretch of waiting before anything even gets close to being worth a paddle.

Right off the bat, Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th are basically a write-off. The swell is tiny, around 0.3ft to 0.7ft, with weak energy readings in the 16 to 58 range. There’s a bit of glassy and cross-off wind early on, but there’s just nothing to ride. The water temp is 73°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, so you won’t need the thickest suit.

We go through the middle of the week with the same story. Wednesday and Thursday have minimal swell. Thursday afternoon sees the energy pick up slightly to 153, but that’s still weak, and the onshore wind at 12 mph will chop it up anyway. It’s not until Friday the 14th that we finally see some proper swell start to fill in, with 5ft from the SSW. The combined energy jumps to 546, which is moderate. But the wind swings cross-onshore at 12 to 16 mph, turning it into a messy, choppy mess. It’s got some push, but it’s not clean.

Saturday the 15th offers a bit more size, hitting 5ft, with energy building to 626. But again, a cross-shore wind keeps it lumpy and hard to read. You might find a few, but it’s work, not fun. Sunday the 16th is where it gets a little interesting. The energy really kicks in, with readings of 1487 in the morning and 1015 in the afternoon. That’s strong wave energy, and the swell is around 4 to 4ft, with a long 18 to 19-second period. This is a proper groundswell, ideal for a river mouth like this. But the cross-shore winds are still there, holding it back from being truly clean. It’s the standout of the first week, but it’s marginal.

Monday the 17th stays active with around 3ft of swell and strong energy, but a fresh cross-shore wind at 19 mph kills the vibe. It’s lumpy and blown out. Then we get a bit of a reset. Tuesday the 18th dawns with a light cross-offshore breeze, and the swell is still a solid 4ft with a 15-second period. The energy is strong at 571, and with that clean cross-off wind, this looks like the best session of the whole period. It’s not huge, but it’s clean and lined up. This is your window. The river mouth should be holding shape, and the offshore wind will keep the faces tidy. That’s the one to be on.

After that, it fades fast. Wednesday the 19th drops off to 2ft, and the energy falls away. From the 20th through the 23rd, it’s back to tiny, weak surf, with the energy reading basically zero. The 24th is flat, and the 25th only shows a glimmer of hope with 1ft and a good long 19-second period, but the energy is weak. It’s another long lull to ride out.

So, for the whole 16-day stretch, the only real standouts are Tuesday the 18th, and to a lesser extent, Sunday the 16th. The rest is a waiting game. Nera Rivermouth is an inconsistent spot, and this run proves it. It’s sheltered and rated as a beginner spot, but the long period swells are prone to breaking too straight at a beach/river setup. The bigger days with 5ft+ might be pushing it for beginners, especially with the chop. On the 16th and 18th, the cross-off winds are the saving grace. Without them, it’s just a frustrating week. Stay patient, and keep your eye on that Tuesday.

Rusty.

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