Nanwan Beach (South Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's talk about what's cookin' for the stretch ahead.

First off, Nanwan Beach (South Bay) is the only spot on the radar here, and it's a mixed bag of a forecast. We're looking at a solid 16-day window, but it kicks off with a bit of a rough stretch. The first few days – from Friday the 7th through the early part of the following week – are a write-off. The swell is all over the place, but the killer is that wicked wind. We're talking 22 to 31 mph cross-offshore and cross-shore winds, which is just trashing the surface. The wave energy is weak to moderate at first (57 to 60), but it builds quickly to a very strong energy (2703) by Sunday the 9th, with the swell hitting 13 ft. That's a lot of power, but it's all blown out and messy. Not a time to paddle out. This is kite-surfing territory for sure.

That poor run lasts through the first week. The swell stays big, around 8 ft to 13 ft, and the wind is just relentless. You'll see a marginal improvement on Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th, where the scores finally tick up to a "1", but the wind is still a fresh breeze and the swell is short-period (8-9 seconds). It's a bit of a tease. The combined energy is still strong (877 to 721), but the quality just isn't there for a good paddle session.

The real turning point, the standout window, hits on Sunday the 16th and then really shines on Monday the 17th. Sunday the 16th morning, we get a gentle breeze and a clean 6 ft swell from the SW. The energy is moderate (593), and the whole vibe is much more manageable. But Monday the 17th is the absolute winner. The morning brings a light offshore breeze from the NW, with a 7 ft SW groundswell (9-second period) and a solid energy of 822. The report says "very good surf conditions." Then, the afternoon cranks it up to perfection: glassy conditions, zero wind, with a clean 7 ft SW swell. That's the session to circle on the calendar. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no worrying about a weird chill.

The good times keep rolling into Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th. Tuesday morning is glassy with a 5 ft SW swell, and Wednesday morning is also glassy with a 5 ft SW swell. The energy drops a bit (435 to 407), but it's clean and fun. The crowds are described as "often" here, so don't expect to have it to yourself, especially on those clean days.

After that, we get a bit of a lull in the middle of the week, with smaller, weaker swells (4 ft to 4 ft) and some onshore and cross-shore winds. The quality drops off. But hold on, because the forecast is pointing to another promising window on the far side. Friday the 21st looks fantastic. Morning is glassy with a 6 ft SSW swell and a very good energy (686). The afternoon bumps up to an 8 ft SSW swell, still light wind, and the energy jumps to 1287. That's a long-range standout, so it's a little less certain, but it's got all the right ingredients.

Then we get to Saturday the 22nd. The morning shows a massive 12 ft SSW groundswell, with a long 12-second period, and a very strong energy of 3332. The wind is a light offshore, so it’s clean. But the report itself says it's predicted to be too big for this break. That's a serious caveat. For a beach-and-reef setup, a long-period swell this size is a freight train. It'll be a sight to see, but only for the most experienced, and even then, it's a big call. The long period means it'll be peeling a bit more at the point, but the sheer size is the main story.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a scrub. The best bet is Monday the 17th, with the glassy, clean conditions. If you're looking further out, mark Friday the 21st. The swell is solid, the wind is right, and the energy is high. Don't sleep on the 16th and 18th either, as they offer clean, manageable waves. The 22nd is for the brave and the tow-in crew.

- Rusty

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