Nanwan Beach (South Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, crew, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the long-range picture for our stretch of coast. It’s gonna be a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks, so let’s cut through the noise and find the moments worth paddling out for.

Right off the bat, we're looking at a slow start. The surf is small and pretty junky for the first stretch. The energy in the water is weak, with values in the 100s to mid-600s. We’ve got a bit of swell from the SW, but it’s short-period stuff, mostly in the 8-9 second range, and the winds are all over the place. Sunday the 16th sees a cross-off breeze with 7ft of swell but it’s messy and there’s a risk of thunderstorms. The water temp is a warm 85°, which is about average for this time of year, so a normal warm tropical paddle.

Honestly, for the first week, from the 16th through the 23rd, there’s not much to get excited about. The swell hovers around 3ft to 8ft, but the winds are mostly cross or onshore, with a lot of days having that lumpy, cross-chop look. Even when it’s clean, like Wednesday the 19th when it’s glassy with 3ft of swell, it’s just too weak and short-period to make the paddle worthwhile. The energy is weak, under 150 for those days. Save your energy.

Things pick up a little around the 24th and 25th, but it's still not great. We see a shift in the swell direction to the E, and the period jumps significantly to 14-18 seconds. This is proper groundswell, and the energy jumps up past 900. But the wind is still not your friend, coming onshore or cross-onshore, which will keep the surface lumpy and make it hard to find a clean face. On the 25th, there’s 4ft to 5ft of that long-period E swell, but the light S wind is just crossing it up too much. It’s still a marginal call.

Now, here’s the standout. Mark your calendars for Wednesday, August 26th. This is the one to circle. The swell direction from the E lines up with what this spot wants, and the period is a very long 17 seconds. Swell heights are solid at 7ft to 8ft, and the combined energy is massive, hitting 2786 in the morning and 3132 in the afternoon. That’s a very strong pulse of energy. Crucially, the wind is light, and for the morning it’s a cross-off breeze, right off the land, which will groom those lines into perfection. This is prime Nanwan Beach (South Bay) territory. However, this is a big swell, over 7ft, so it’s not one for the beginners. This is for the experienced crew. It’s a beach and reef setup, and with a swell this size and that long of a period, the beach breaks might be closing out; the reef sections will be where the real shape is. This is a long-range call, so treat it as promising, not a guarantee, but it’s the best thing on the board by a long shot.

The energy drops off dramatically after that high point. From the 27th onward, we’re back to small, short-period SW swell in the 4ft to 7ft range, with winds that are mostly cross or onshore. It’s not going to be much fun out there.

Then to finish the run, from the 29th through the 31st, the wind really pipes up from the ENE, blowing 30 to 40 km/h. That’s going to produce a solid cross-shore chop all day. With the swell pulsing back up to 7ft to 7ft, the conditions will be rough. At that point, with that much wind and a messy, choppy surface, the setup at this beach and reef is going to be far more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle surfers.

So, the long and short of it is: the next week and a half is pretty average. The one day to truly plan around is Wednesday the 26th. That's your window.

Rusty, out.

Read more